MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS OF NEPAL
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1 MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS OF NEPAL November 2018 NEPAL RASTRA BANK RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
2 INDIA INDIA NEPAL CHINA INDIA Location : 26 o 22' North to 30 o 27' North and 80 o 4' East to 88 o 12' East Area : 147,181 Square Km. Capital City : Kathmandu Population : million * Population Growth Rate : 1.35% * Currency : Nepalese Rupee World Heritage Sites : Lumbini, Chitwan National Park, Sagarmatha National Park, Pashupatinath, Swayambhunath, Bauddhanath, Changu Narayan, Kathmandu Durbar Square, Bhaktapur Durbar Square and Patan Durbar Square * Based on Population Census 2011, Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) Sources: Central Bureau of Statistics;
3 Contents Table 1 Table 2 Table 3 Table 4 Table 5 Table 6 Table 7 Table 8 Table 9 Table 10 Table 11 Table 12 Table 13 Table 14 Table 15 Table 16 Table 17 Table 18 Table 19 Table 20 Table 21 Table 22 World Output Growth World Consumer Prices Key Macroeconomic Indicators Real Sector Annual National Consumer Price Index Monetary Survey Central Bank Survey Other Depository Corporation Survey Structure of the Nepalese Financial System Number of Banks and Financial Institutions Presence of Commercial Banks at Local Levels Number of Merged/Acquired Banks and Financial Institutions Province-wise Distribution of Banks and Financial Institution Financial Access and Stability Structure of Interest Rates Stock Market Government Budgetary Operation Outstanding Debt of the Government of Nepal Foreign Trade Nepal's Trade Balance with Major Trading Partners Balance of Payments Gross Foreign Exchange Holding of Banking Sector
4 Table 1 World Output Growth (Annual Percentage Change) Year P 2019 P World Output China India Nepal P = Projection Source: World Economic Outlook (WEO), October 2018, IMF Table 2 World Consumer Prices (Annual Percentage Change) Year P 2019 P Advanced Economies China India Nepal P = Projection Source: World Economic Outlook (WEO), October 2018, IMF
5 Table 3 Key Macroeconomic Indicators Indicator Annual Percentage Change 2010/ / / / / / /17 R 2017/18 P Real GDP at Producers' Price Real GDP at Basic Price Nominal GDP at Producers' Price Nominal GDP at Basic Price GNI at Current Price Gross National Disposable Income National Consumer Price Index National Wholesale Price Index National Salary and Wage Rate Index Broad Money (M2) Narrow Money (M1) Domestic Credit Credit to Private Sector Time Deposits Total Exports Total Imports Gross Forex Reserves Government Revenue Government Expenditure As % of Nominal GDP at Producers' Prices Gross National Disposable Income Broad Money (M2) Narrow Money (M1) Domestic Credit Credit to Private Sector Time Deposits Total Exports Total Imports Trade Deficit Current Account Balance Gross Forex Reserves Government Revenue Government Expenditure Government Budgetary Deficit (Gross) Gross Domestic Borrowing Net Domestic Borrowing Gross External Borrowing Net External Borrowing Outstanding Domestic Debt Outstanding External Debt R = Revised P = Preliminary estimate Note: Government Revenue and Expenditure are based on Cash Basis data of NRB Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, Budget Speeches of GoN, Financial Comptroller General Office and Nepal Rastra Bank
6 Table 4 Real Sector (Rs. in million) 2010/ / / / / / /17 R 2017/18 P Nominal GDP at Producers' Price Nominal GDP at Basic Price Agriculture Non-agriculture Real GDP at Producers' Price (Base Year : 2000/01 = 100) Real GDP at Basic Price (Base Year : 2000/01 = 100) Agriculture Agriculture and Forestry Fishery Non-agriculture Industry Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Electricity Gas & Water Construction Service Wholesale & Retail Trade Hotels & Restaurant Transport, Storage & Communications Financial Intermediation Real Estate, Renting & Business Public Adm. & Defence Education Health & Social Work Other Community, Social & Personal Services Nominal Per Capita GDP (USD) R = Revised estimate P = Preliminary estimate Source: Central Bureau of Statistics
7 Table 5 Annual National Consumer Price Index Base: 2014/15 = 100 Group/Sub-groups Weight (Percent) Percentage Change 2011/ / / / / / /18 1. OVERALL INDEX Food and Beverage Cereals Grains & their products Pulses and Legumes Vegetables Meat & Fish Milk Products and Eggs Ghee and Oil Fruit Sugar & Sugar products Spices Non-alcoholic drinks Alcoholic drinks Tobacco Products Restaurant & Hotel Non-Food and Services Clothing & Footwear Housing & Utilities Furnishing & Household Equipment Health Transport Communication Recreation and Culture Education Miscellaneous Goods & Services
8 Table 6 Monetary Survey (Rs. in million) Monetary Aggregates mid - July Percentage Change P 2016/ /18 1. Foreign Assets, Net 383, , , , , ,014, ,054, Foreign Assets 455, , , , ,069, ,107, ,133, Foreign Liabilities 72, , , , , , , a. Deposits 60, , , , , , , b. Others 11, , , , , , , Net Domestic Assets 746, , , ,130, ,288, ,577, ,040, Domestic Credit 994, ,165, ,314, ,527, ,805, ,177, ,719, a. Net Claims on Govt. 162, , , , , , , i. Claims on Govt. 165, , , , , , , ii. Govt. Deposits 2, , , , , , b. Claims on Non-Financial Govt. Ent. 10, , , , , , , c. Claims on Financial Institutions 11, , , , , , , i. Government 1, , , , , , , ii. Non-government 10, , , , , , , d. Claims on Private Sector 809, , ,150, ,373, ,692, ,997, ,442, Net Non-monetary Liabilities 248, , , , , , , Broad Money (M2) 1,130, ,315, ,565, ,877, ,244, ,591, ,094, Money Supply (M1) 789, , ,130, ,376, ,634, ,623, ,878, a. Money Supply (M1) 263, , , , , , , i. Currency 170, , , , , , , ii. Demand Deposits 93, , , , , , , b. Saving and Call Deposits 525, , , , ,131, ,053, ,209, Time Deposits 341, , , , , , ,215, Broad Money Liquidity (M3) 1,190, ,389, ,646, ,972, ,353, ,682, ,171, Reserve Money 319, , , , , , , Money Multiplier (M1) Money Multiplier (M2) P = Provisional
9 Table 7 Central Bank Survey (Rs. in million) Headings mid-july Percentage Change P 2016/ /18 1. Foreign Assets Gold Investment SDR Holdings Reserve Position in the Fund Foreign Exchange Claims on Government Treasury Bills Development Bonds Other Government Papers Loans and Advances Claims on Non-Financial Government Enterprises Claims on Non-Bank Financial Institutions Government Non-Government Claims on Banks and Financial Institutions Refinance Repo Lending/SLF Claims on Private Sector Other Assets Assets = Liabilities Reserve Money Currency Outside ODCs Currency Held by ODCs Deposits of Commercial Banks Deposits of Development Banks Deposits of Finance Companies Other Deposits Government Deposits Deposit Auction Reverse Repo Foreign Liabilities Foreign Deposits IMF Trust Fund Use of Fund Resources SAF ESAF PRGF/RCF CSI Capital and Reserve Other Liabilities P = Provisional
10 Table 8 Other Depository Corporation Survey (Rs. in million) Headings mid - July Percentage Change P 2016/ /18 1. Total Deposits 1,011, ,188, ,406, ,688, ,016, ,299, ,742, Demand Deposits 94, , , , , , , a. Domestic Deposits 84, , , , , , , b. Foreign Deposits 10, , , , , , , Saving Deposits 397, , , , , , , a. Domestic Deposits 391, , , , , , , b. Foreign Deposits 5, , , , , , , Fixed & Call Deposits 512, , , , , ,265, ,516, a. Domestic Deposits 468, , , , , ,200, ,466, b. Foreign Deposits 44, , , , , , , Margin Deposits 6, , , , , , , Borrowings from Nepal Rastra Bank , , , , , , Foreign Liabilities 2, , Other Liabilities 251, , , , , , , Paid-up Capital 104, , , , , , , General Reserves 46, , , , , , , Other Liabilities 100, , , , , , , Assets = Liabilities 1,266, ,486, ,757, ,075, ,496, ,887, ,445, Liquid Funds 201, , , , , , , Cash in Hand 30, , , , , , , Balance with Nepal Rastra Bank 110, , , , , , , Foreign Currency in Hand , , , Balance Held Abroad 59, , , , , , , Cash in Transit Loans and Advances 967, ,147, ,313, ,542, ,902, ,240, ,763, Claims on Government 137, , , , , , , Claims on Non-Financial Govt. Ent. 10, , , , , , , Claims on Financial Ent. 11, , , , , , , a. Government 1, , , , b. Non Government 10, , , , , , , Claims on Private Sector 805, , ,146, ,369, ,687, ,993, ,437, a. Principal 779, , ,117, ,338, ,656, ,959, ,399, b. Interest Accrued 26, , , , , , , Foreign Bills Purchased & Discounted 3, , , , , , Other Assets 97, , , , , , , Credit Deposit Ratio Liquidity Deposit Ratio NFA , , , , , , NDA 950, ,110, ,313, ,567, ,815, ,147, ,628, Other Items, net 153, , , , , , , Total Domestic Deposits 951, ,113, ,326, ,594, ,907, ,209, ,664, Total Foreign Deposits 60, , , , , , , P = Provisional
11 Table 9 Structure of the Nepalese Financial System (Total Assets/Liabilities) (As of mid-july) (Rs. in million) Financial Institutions P NRB Licensed Institutions (A) 1,368, ,601, ,909, ,260, ,712, ,116, ,759,639.2 Commercial Banks 1,052, ,242, ,467, ,753, ,141, ,583, ,069,231.2 Development Banks 160, , , , , , ,839.9 Finance Companies 109, , , , , , ,863.7 Microfinance Financial Institutions 29, , , , , , ,987.7 NRB licensed Co-operatives 11, , , , , , ,286.7 NRB Licensed Financial NGOS 4, , , , , , ,430.0 Contractual Saving Institutions (B) 238, , , , , , ,673.4 Employees Provident Fund 125, , , , , , ,382.2 Citizen Investment Trust 38, , , , , , ,061.3 Insurance Companies 73, , , , , , ,316.2 Postal Savings Bank 1, , , , , , ,913.7 Total (A+B) 1,607, ,872, ,236, ,651, ,180, ,655, ,432,312.6 Market capitalization 368, , ,057, , ,890, ,856, ,435,137.7 Total (incl. market capitalization) 1,975, ,387, ,293, ,640, ,071, ,512, ,867,450.2 Share in Financial System (in Percent) NRB Licensed Institutions Commercial Banks Development Banks Finance Companies Microfinance Development Banks NRB licensed Co-operatives NRB Licensed Financial NGOS Contractual Saving Institutions Employees Provident Fund Citizen Investment Trust Insurance Companies Postal Savings Bank Total Memorandum Item Assets/Liabilities of Nepal Rastra Bank 455, , , , , ,048, ,153,357.4 P = Provisional
12 Table 10 Number of Banks and Financial Institutions (As of mid-july) Banks and Financial Institutions Commercial Banks Development Banks Finance Companies Microfinance Development Banks Financial Cooperatives* Financial NGOs* Insurance Companies * NRB Licensed Table 11 Presence of Commercial Banks at Local Levels Province No. Of Local Levels Mid-July Province Province Province Gandaki Province Karnali Far-west Total
13 Table 12 Number of Merged/Acquired Banks and Financial Institutions (As of mid-july) Banks and Financial Institutions Commercial Banks Development Banks Finance Companies Microfinance Development Banks Total BFIs merged/acquired with each other BFIs formed on account of merger/acquisition Table 13 Province-wise Distribution of Banks and Financial Institutions (As of mid-july 2018) Banks and Financial Institutions Province Gandaki 5 Karnali Far-west Total Commercial Banks' Branches Development Banks' Branches Finance Companies' Branches Money Changers Money Transfers * NRB licensed Table 14 Financial Access and Stability (As of mid-july) Indicators Number of ATMs Number of Deposit Accounts (in '000') Number of Loan Accounts (in '000') Non-performing Loans (in percent) Net Profit of Commercial Banks (Rs. In billion)
14 Table 15 Structure of Interest Rates (Percent per Annum, mid-july) A. Policy Rates Fixed Repo Rate (Corridor) Fixed Deposit Collection Rate (Corridor) Standing Liquidity Facility (SLF) Rate^ Bank Rate B. Refinance Rates Against Loans to: Special Refinance General Refinance Export Credit in Foreign Currency C. CRR Commercial Banks Development Banks Finance Companies D. Government Securities T-bills (28 days)* T-bills (91 days)* T-bills (182 days)* T-bills (364 days)* Development Bonds National/Citizen SCs E. Interbank Rate (Commercial Banks)* F. Weighted Average Deposit Rate (Commercial Banks) G. Weighted Average Lending Rate (Commercial Banks) H. Base Rate (Commercial Banks)$ LIBOR+0.25 LIBOR+0.25 LIBOR+0.25 LIBOR+0.25 LIBOR+0.25 LIBOR+0.25 LIBOR ^ The SLF rate is fixed as same as bank rate effective from August 16, 2012 * Weighted average interest rate. $ Base rate has been compiled since January 2013
15 Table 16 Stock Market (mid-july) Descriptions Number of Listed Companies Paid up value of Listed Shares (Rs. in million) Paid up value /GDP (%) Market Capitalization (Rs. in million) Market Capitalization/GDP (%) Annual Turnover (Rs. in million) Annual Turnover/Paid up Value (%) Turnover/Market Capitalization (%) NEPSE Index (Closing) Source: Nepal Stock Exchange Ltd.
16 Table 17 Government Budgetary Operation (On Cash Basis) (Rs. in million) Head/Sub-head 2011/ / / / / / /18 P Total Expenditure Recurrent Capital Financial Other (Freeze Account) Total Resources Revenue and Grants Revenue Foreign Grants Previous Year's Cash Balance & Beruju Deficits(-) Surplus(+) Sources of Financing Internal Loans Domestic Borrowings (i) Treasury Bills (ii) Development Bonds (iii) National Savings Certificates (iv) Citizen Saving Certificates (v) Foreign Employment Bond Overdrafts Others Principal Refund and Share Divestment Foreign Loans Balance of Govt. Office Account V. A. T. Fund Account Customs Fund Account Reconstruction Fund Account Local Authorities' Accounts (LAA)# Others* Current Balance (-Surplus) Based on data reported by 1 office of NRB and various branches of commercial banks conducting government transactions and release report from 79 DTCOs and payment centres. ++ Minus (-) indicates surplus. # Change in outstanding amount disbursed to VDC/DDC remaining unspent. * Others includes Guarantee deposits, Operational funds (Imprest) & Emergency funds and Conditional and unconditional grant from government to local bodies. P = Provisional. (Rs. in million) Particulars 2011/ / / / / / /18 P Domestic* 209, , , , , , ,898.7 Treasury Bills 131, , , , , , ,847.9 Development Bonds 57, , , , , , ,900.0 National Savings Certificate 15, , , , Citizen Savings Certificate 4, , , , , , ,716.3 Foreign Employment Bond Special Bonds Foreign 309, , , , , , ,629.7 Domestic Debt/GDP (%) Foreign Debt/GDP (%) Total Debt/GDP (%) * Excluding overdraft borrowing of the GoN from NRB and IMF promissory notes P = Provisional Table 18 Outstanding Debt of the Government of Nepal Source: Economic Survey, 2016/17; Nepal Rastra Bank; Financial Comptroller General Office
17 Table 19 Foreign Trade* (Rs. in million) Particulars 2010/ / / / / / /17 R 2017/18 P Total Exports 64, , , , , , , ,191.6 To India 43, , , , , , , ,604.8 To China - - 2, , , , , ,437.8 To Other Countries 20, , , , , , , ,149.0 Total Imports 396, , , , , , , ,242,826.8 From India 261, , , , , , , ,814.2 From China , , , , , ,636.3 From Other Countries 134, , , , , , , ,376.2 Major Exports 32, , , , , , , ,308.2 Readymade Garments 3, , , , , , , ,623.3 Woolen Carpet 4, , , , , , , ,121.2 Pulses 3, , , , , , Polyster Yarn 2, , , , , , , ,665.1 Textiles 3, , , , , , , ,204.0 Jute Goods 3, , , , , , , ,643.5 Thread 3, , Zinc sheet 3, , , , , , , ,780.2 Juice 2, , , , , , , ,738.5 Catechue 1, , Major Imports 197, , , , , , , ,859.1 Petroleum Products 76, , , , , , , ,245.3 Gold 11, , , , , , , ,203.5 Vehicles & Spare Parts 24, , , , , , , ,166.2 Other Machinary & Parts 16, , , , , , , ,083.8 M.S. Billet 20, , , , , , , ,943.3 Electrical Equipment 13, , , , , , , ,999.4 Medicine 11, , , , , , , ,785.5 Telecommunication Equip. Parts 9, , , , , , , ,882.4 Coldrolled Sheet in Coil 8, , , , , , , ,264.1 M.S. Wires, Rods, Coils, Bars 5, , , , , , , ,285.6 * Based on customs data R = Revised P = Provisional
18 Table 20 Nepal's Trade Balance with Major Trading Partners S.N. Countries Exports (Rs. in million) 2016/ /18 P Imports Trade Balance Exports Imports Trade Balance A SAARC India Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Maldives Pakistan Sril Lanka B Euro Area Austria Belgium Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Lithuania Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovenia Spain C Latin American and the Caribbean Argentina Brazil Chile Guatemala Mexico D Other Countries Australia Canada China, People's Republic of Contd. (2)
19 S.N. Countries Exports 2016/ /18 P Imports Trade Balance Exports Imports Trade Balance 4 China, Republic of (Hong Kong) China, Republic of (Taiwan) Czech Republic Denmark Egypt Hungary Indonesia Israel Japan Korea, South Lebnan Malaysia Myanmar (Burma) New Zealand Norway Oman Philippines Qatar Russia Saudi Arabia Singapore South Africa Swaziland Sweden Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine United Arab Emirates United Kingdom United States Vietnam Others* Total * Euro, Latin America and other countries not included above. P = Provisional
20 Table 21 Balance of Payments (Rs. in million) Percentage Change Particulars 2012/ / / / /17 R 2017/18 P 2016/ /18 A. Current Account 57, , , , , , Goods: Exports. f.o.b. 85, , , , , , Goods: Imports, f.o.b. -547, , , , , ,227, Balance on Goods -461, , , , , ,134, Services: Credit 95, , , , , , Travel 34, , , , , , Government, n.i.e. 18, , , , , , Other 42, , , , , , Services: Debit -87, , , , , , Transportation -33, , , , , , Travel -39, , , , , , Government Services -1, , , , , , Other -13, , , , , , Balance on Goods and Services -453, , , , , ,132, Income: Credit 23, , , , , , Income: Debit -10, , , , , , Balance on Goods, Services and Income -440, , , , , ,109, Current Transfers: Credit 505, , , , , , Grants 34, , , , , , Workers' Remittances 434, , , , , , Pensions 35, , , , , , Other , Current Transfer: Debit -7, , , , , , B. Capital Account 10, , , , , , (Capital Transfers) C. Financial Account (excluding Group E) 12, , , , , , Direct Investment in Nepal 9, , , , , , Other Investment: Assets -22, , , , , , Other Investment: Liabilities 26, , , , , , Trade Credits 14, , , , , , Loans -1, , , , , , General Government -1, , , , , , Drawings 13, , , , , , Repayments -14, , , , , , Other Sectors , , , Currency and Deposits 14, , , , , , Other Liabilities -1, , , , D. Miscellaneous Items, Net 3, , , , , , Total Group A through D 83, , , , , , E. Reserves and Related Items -83, , , , , , Change in Net Foreign Assets (-Increase) -68, , , , , Official Exchange Rate Per US$ (Annual Buying Average in Rs.) R = Revised P = Provisional
21 Table 22 Gross Foreign Exchange Holding of the Banking Sector (Rs. in million) mid-july Percentage Change / /18 Nepal Rastra Bank Convertible Inconvertible Bank and Financial Institutions * Convertible Inconvertible Total Reserve Convertible Share in total (in percent) Inconvertible Share in total (in percent) Import Capacity(Equivalent Months) Merchandise Merchandise and Services Gross Foreign Exchange Reserve Gold,SDR,IMF Gold Tranche Gross Foreign Assets(1+2) Foreign Liabilities Net Foreign Assets(3-4) Change in NFA (before adj. ex. val.)** Exchange Valuation Change in NFA (6+7)*** Sources: Nepal Rastra Bank and Commercial Banks; Estimated. * indicates the "A","B" & " C" class financial institutions licensed by NRB. **Change in NFA is derived by taking mid-july as base and minus (-) sign indicates increase. *** After adjusting exchange valuation gain/loss Period-end Buying Rate (Rs/USD)
22 Nepal Rastra Bank Central Office, Research Department Baluwatar Kathmandu, Nepal Phone: Fax: Website:
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS OF NEPAL
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