Jyske Preferred. BMW, China Mobile, J Sainsbury and Securitas remain on our list of preferred equities.
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- Garey Spencer
- 5 years ago
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1 Jyske Preferred Jyske Preferred is a concentrated focus report on the international equities which, according to analysts, have the most attractive return potential. BMW, China Mobile, J Sainsbury and Securitas remain on our list of preferred equities. This is a noncomplex product STRATEGY: Global steel production peaked in November and currently shows the weakest growth momentum since We are currently seeing the largest negative divergence between steel production and cyclical shares since Many investors have so far assumed that the poor economic indicators were related to cold weather conditions, but the steel production is hardly controlled by this kind of short-term events. THIS WAS IN FOCUS: BMW: BMW s forecast for 2014 was markedly better than expected. For 2014 BMW expects a significant increase in both the sale of cars and the pre-tax profit. We interpret these announcements as 6-10% unit growth (vs. estimate of 5%) and 10-14% earnings growth, respectively, which are markedly higher than consensus of 1%. Growth will be driven by the launch of 12 new models (incl. i3, i8, Mini, X6, 4-series), high demand for the 2-series, and a lower cost level (particularly the R&D costs will be reduced). All in all, the announcements support our STRONG BUY recommendation. The share was also rewarded with a price increase of 11% this week. China Mobile: It was a tough week for the CM share, which closed down by 7.3%. The reason was primarily that CM turned in disappointing Q4 results with an EBITDA of CNY 54.8bn, which was almost 9% lower than expected. This was mainly due to higher costs, which rose by a total of 15% driven e.g. by increased smartphone sales and higher sales costs (promotions). We consider 2014 a transformation year for CM. A year when CM will utilise that it has obtained a 4G licence more or less at the same time as its rivals (contrary to 3G, when authorities deliberately delayed CM's licences). Now when the industry is moving from mobile telephony to data, it makes good sense that CM wants to manifest itself as China's leading supplier of mobile data. This is a significant reason why it will increase its CAPEX by 22% and its reimbursements to smartphones and promotions. China Mobile will not reap the fruits of these investments until 2015 and onwards. Although the investment horizon of CM has now been increased, we believe that the price reaction in recent months has been an overreaction, and a correction should therefore be possible in the short term. It should finally be noted that among the world's largest operators, no one is trading at a lower EV/EBITDA than CM. J Sainsbury: In Q4 Sainsbury's like-for-like sales fell by 3.1%, which was moderately disappointing compared to consensus of -2.7% y/y. The negative growth was due exclusively to tough comparatives. In Q rivals were hit by the horse meat scandal, from which Sainsbury benefited a lot. In this quarter, like-for-like sales rose by 7.1%. Despite the negative like-for-like sales the management guided EBIT-margin expansion for H2 driven by increasing sales of non-food as well as cost savings. THIS WILL BE IN FOCUS: There are no important planned events on the agenda for the coming week. The ex-date for all four companies on Jyske Preferred is in May. Securitas will pay a dividend of SEK 3.0 or 4.2% for the full year. Correspondingly, BMW will pay 3% or EUR 2.6. For six months J Sainsbury will pay GBp 12.8 or 4.2% and China Mobile HKD 1.6 or 2.5%. Jyske Pr efer r ed BMW (Strong Buy) ChinaMobile (Strong Buy) Securitas (Buy) Sainsbury (Strong Buy) Calendar Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Senior Analyst, Equity Research Robert Jakobsen jrj@jyskebank.dk Assisting Equity Analysts:: Christoffer Thimsen Christoffer.thimsen@jyskebank.dk Kasper Friis Toft Kasper.friis.toft@jyskebank.dk Jyske Markets, Vestergade 8-16 DK-8600 Silkeborg Important investor information: Please see the last page
2 Jyske Preferred - overview Com pany Recom m endation Investm entcase BMW Strong Buy We believe that BMW has the qualities to maintain its leading position in the market for premium cars. ChinaMobile Strong Buy We expect that CM may in 2014 surprise the market positively compared to the current expectations Securitas Buy Securitas is defensive, pays attractive dividends, can deliver moderate EPS-growth and is undervalued. Sainsbury Strong Buy Going forward, we believe that Sainsbury has the qualities to offer investors an "outperformer" culture. Jyske Quant break down Return compared to S&P Global Jyske Quant Performance Momentum Fundamental Fundamental relative Relative to S&P W 1M 3M 6M 1Y BMW ChinaMobile Securitas Sainsbury Financial Quality strenght 2014 EPS revisions (indexed) Weak steel production indicates growth pause nov-2013 dec-2013 jan-2014 feb-2014 mar-2014 BMW ChinaMobile Securitas Sainsbury Upside CAGR % E P/E EV / EBITDA P / B Net Debt / EBITDA Rating to target Sales EPS BMW Strong Buy 31% 3% 4% ChinaMobile Strong Buy 24% 8% -5% Secur itas Buy 16% 1% 7% Sainsbury Strong Buy 34% 4% 7% /11
3 BMW STRONG BUY BMW can maintain its leading position BMW stands a good chance to maintain its leading position in the premium market. Combined with good growth opportunities and a high Jyske Quant score, BMW deserves to be on the list of Jyske Preferred. BMW should be able to maintain its market leading position: With its 2020 strategy plan ONE, BMW focuses heavily on future-proofing its organisation. The plan contains, among other things, a significant extension of its range - the number of models is to be trebled compared to 2005 through increased innovation speed. In this connection BMW is trying to implement a module architecture, meaning that its cars will share several components - but without affecting the differentiation opportunities. Combined with the sector's strongest brand, BMW has good odds to maintain its leading market position. Growth possibilities in emerging market countries: Deloitte estimates that in the period the number of millionaires (in USD) will increase by 10% annually in emerging-market countries and by almost 6% in the largest developed countries. This trend is primarily driven by the urbanisation. For BMW increasing wealth means increasing sales. Global Insight estimates that the sale of premium cars in China will increase by 16% annually in the period In terms of units, China is already BMW's most important market. In order to illustrate the potential, BMW today sells more or less the same amount of cars in the Nordic countries (including the Baltic countries) as in India + Turkey + Brazil. A total population of 1.5bn. New sales record in 2014: The launch of more new models should ensure that 2014 will be yet another record-breaking year in terms of sales. We expect BMW to issue a satisfactory 2014 forecast, when the Q4 results will be released. Macroeconomic improvement in the EU will be very positive for BMW: After two years with negative GDP growth in the euro-zone countries, growth is expected in the coming years. Even if this does not materialise, it is worth noting that BMW has historically been less cyclical than many other car manufacturers. Quant info Shar e infor m ation Q uant scor e 7,4 Number of stocks (mill.) 602 Valuation 8, 5 High/Low last 12 months 87/64 Valuation relative 8, 4 Price movements 3/12 months 3%/26% Financial strenght 7, 7 - relative to index 8%/-11% Quality 6, 1 Market cap (mill. EUR) Momentum 6, 6 Free float 53% Performance 4, 3 Avr. daily volume (mill.) 131 This company was selected on the basis of Jyske Quant. Jyske Quant is a model that rates companies based on a string of factors. In that way, the model comes up with a total score that indicates whether the share is currently a good investment or not. This is a noncomplex product Sector Risk News flow Jyske Markets, Vestergade 8-16 DK-8600 Silkeborg Senior Analyst, Equity Research, Robert Jakobsen jrj@jyskebank.dk Assisting Equity Analyst, Christoffer Thimsen christoffer.thimsen@jyskebank.dk Important investor information: Please see the last page Cons. Descre. Cheap Medium Positive 12-month target price Current price 87.0 Reuters Bloomberg BMWG.DE BMW GR Equity JB sec. code Pr ice tr end BMW DAX m a m j j a s o n d j f Source: Jyske Bank & Datastream 2/11
4 Overview BMW Company profile BMW is a German car producer that has a strong position in the global market for cars as well as motor cycles. In addition to the brand BMW the company owns the brands MINI and Rolls-Royce, and particularly the first brand accounts for a considerable part of sales, 17% (in terms of sold units). BMW has a wide range of cars including every-day cars, SUVs and sports cars. BMW is well-known for its loyal customers, quality and its strong brand. In 2013, BMW sold 1.85 million cars and is therefore the market leader in the premium car market. For 2014, sales of EUR 80bn and an EBITDA result of EUR 13bn are expected. Sales broken down by geographical area China 18% BRIKT 6% Rest of the world 8% USA 21% Germany ex. Europe 16% Rest of Europe 31% Sales growth and profitability 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% E 2014E -5% -10% Sales growth EBIT-margin Sales broken down by segment Motorcycles 2% Financial services 22% Autimotive 76% Investment case Particularly the fundamental values (in absolute as well as Reasons why we recommend BMW relative terms) have a positive impact on the total Jyske With a solid expansion of its range (up to 2020), a faster Quant score. In addition, BMW has a high score in Financial strength. innovation pace and one of the sector's strongest brands, BMW has good odds to maintain or even improve its leading position in the premium market for cars. This makes BMW one of the most attractive shares in the market for premium cars. BMW still has good growth opportunities in the EM countries. For instance, Global Insight estimates that sales of premium cars in China will increase by 16% annually in the period BMW is one of the market leaders in this respect. Macroeconomic stabilisation in EU will be very positive for BMW. In 2014, BMW will launch a string of new and updated cars, including the 4-series and the first electric cars (i3 and i8). This should ensure that 2014 will be a new Price triggers Risk factors Better market conditions in Europe. Keener competition. Good sales figures from China. Sustaining sluggish growth rate in China. Favourable exchange rates. Rising commodity prices of its input factors. Better-than-expected sales of its new models. New recession in Europe or the US. Quarterly results. 3/11
5 CHINAMOBILE STRONG BUY 750 million subscribers! China Mobile (CM) has significant economies of scale being the world's largest mobile operator. We believe that the expectations of CM are moderate, offering room for surprises. CM also has a strong balance sheet, which ensures that the supervisory board can maintain an attractive dividend policy. This company was selected on the basis of Jyske Quant. Jyske Quant is a model that rates companies based on a string of factors. In that way, the model comes up with a total score that indicates whether the share is currently a good investment or not. This is a noncomplex product We consider China Mobile an attractive investment for the following reasons: Significant economies of scale: CM is without comparison the world's largest mobile operator having 750m subscribers. The size of CM is a major advantage that can be utilised in a wide perspective - including marketing and launch of new technologies. Opportunity to deliver positive surprise: In our view, CM currently has good opportunities of surprising the market's modest expectations positively over the coming years. Particularly because: 1) China is facing a data explosion (3G and 4G), 2) the share of Chinese people owning a smartphone is still relatively low (a smartphone customer is more profitable), 3) rising wealth will over time increase earnings of the currently less profitable customers, 4) we expect that the Apple agreement will strengthen CM's competitiveness and 5) the massive price competition in the smartphone market is to the benefit of CM. Defensive: CM is defensive of nature, as telecommunication is having a high priority among consumers. 4.5% dividend: In 2014 we estimate a dividend of 4.5%. CM has room to raise the dividend. This may take place after the launch of 4G (2015). Please note that CM has a very sound balance sheet. The share has an attractive valuation: For instance, CM is trading at an estimated 2014 P/E of 10, while China Telecom and China Unicom are trading at 11 and 14, respectively. Quant info Share information Q uant scor e 6,3 Number of stocks (mill.) Valuation 8,2 High/Low last 12 months 88/65 Valuation relative 8,6 Price movements 3/12 months -19%/-21% Financial strenght 8,1 - relative to index -14%/-18% Quality 4,8 Market cap (mill. HKD) Momentum 4,1 Free float 26% Performance 1,6 Avr. daily volume (mill.) 1382 Sector Telekom Cheap Risk Medium News flow Positive 12-month target price 79.7 Current price 64.5 Reuters 0941.HK Bloomberg 941 HK Equity JB sec. code Pr ice tr end 120 China Mobile HANG SENG m a m j j a s o n d j f Source: Jyske Bank & Datastream Jyske Markets, Vestergade 8-16 DK-8600 Silkeborg Senior Analyst, Equity Research, Robert Jakobsen jrj@jyskebank.dk Assisting Equity Analyst, Christoffer Thimsen christoffer.thimsen@jyskebank.dk Important investor information: Please see the last page /11
6 Overview China mobile Company profile China Mobile (CM) is by far China's largest mobile operator with almost 750m subscribers or a market share of above 60%. A subscriber pays USD 10.8 on average a month, which is low. In 2014 CM's sales are expected to exceed USD 100bn, an EBITDA result of USD 43bn, and a net result of USD 20bn. CM has almost 200,000 employees. The state owns 74% of the shares. Sales broken down by geographical area Data & SMS 24% Wireless Voice & other services 76% Sales growth and profitability 30% Sales growth 25% 20% 15% 10% Profit margin Sales broken down by segment Free float 26% 5% 0% E 2014E State 74% Investment case CM is among the highest-scoring telecom companies at Jyske Reasons why we recommend China Mobile: 1) CM is without Quant. CM's score is particularly driven by high fundamental comparison the world's largest mobile operator. In brief, CM values as well as financial strength. On the other hand, the has significant economies of scale. 2) The market's growth price performance had an adverse impact on the score. expectations of CM are modest. We think CM may offer positive surprises to the market. Some reasons for this are: 1) data explosion (3G and 4G), 2) the penetration rate is still relatively low, 3) rising consumer spending and urbanisation raise earnings of the currently less profitable customers and 4) we expect that an agreement with Apple will increase CM's competitiveness, 5) CM has a very sound balance sheet with net liquid assets worth USD 60bn or no less than 28% of its market value, and a dividend of 4.5% is expected in Price triggers Risk factors CM's results exceed market expectations. Massive price war. Net inflow of 3G subscriptions exceeds expectations. The Chinese telecommunications supervisory authority reduces CM manages to stabilise its EBITDA margin through data growth the tariffs faster than currently expected. and cost savings. A fourth rival obtains licence to compete in the Chinese Price competition between China Mobile, China Unicom and telecom market. Telecom declines. Political risk. CM expands (e.g. through acquisitions) to other Asian Disappointing results. countries with good growth opportunities (such as Indonesia Weakening of HKD against USD or EUR. and India). Technical problems with the roll-out of 4G or the roll-out The focus on increasing sales of related products (such as turns out more costly for one reason or another. security, alarms, digital content) turns our very successful. 5/11
7 14 March 2014 J SAINSBURY STRONG BUY Best and most undervalued Sainsbury offers investors an 'outperformer' culture, which combined with macroeconomic improvement in the UK, a dividend of 5%, and a high Jyske Quant score more than justifies the introduction on the list of Jyske Preferred. J Sainbury is a defensive outperformer: JS has now for many years delivered higher organic growth than its closest rivals, Tesco, Asda and Morrison. That is regardless of the market conditions. We ascribe JS' success to a combination of skilful management that is chasing the market opportunities and on an ongoing basis adjusts the company after customers' needs and priorities. 5% dividend: For 2014 JS will pay a dividend of 5%, which we consider a sustainable level. We expect the dividend to be raised in line with EPS growth - i.e. almost 5-10% annually. Prospects of 'recovery' in the UK: After a tough downturn since the start of the financial crisis, 2014 and the coming years are expected to offer higher GDP growth, a falling unemployment rate and rising confidence in the future. This will loosen the British willingness to spend to be benefit of JS. The share has adapted to the market: The share has declined by 17% since end-november due primarily to weaker sales per square metre than expected - but still better than its closest rivals. In the same period, the UK FTSE index rose by 2%. Due to the price development JS is now trading at a discount to its rivals. As we still expect JS to outperform its rivals, the share should sooner or later recover. Has good Jyske Quant score and trades at a discount: JS has a Jyske Quant score of 6.2, which supports our STRONG BUY recommendation. Particularly the Valuation, in absolute terms and relative to rivals, and Momentum scores are high. Quant info Share information Q uant scor e 6,2 Number of stocks (mill.) 1890 Valuation 7, 6 High/Low last 12 months 415/305 Valuation relative 8, 1 Price movements 3/12 months -14%/-15% Financial strenght 4, 6 - relative to index Quality 3, 7 Market cap (mill. GBP) Momentum 5, 5 Free float 66% Performance 1, 9 Avr. daily volume (mill.) 2630 This company was selected on the basis of Jyske Quant. Jyske Quant is a model that rates companies based on a string of factors. In that way, the model comes up with a total score that indicates whether the share is currently a good investment or not. This is a noncomplex product Sector Risk News flow Jyske Markets, Vestergade 8-16 DK-8600 Silkeborg Senior Analyst, Equity Research, Robert Jakobsen jrj@jyskebank.dk Assisting Equity Analyst, Christoffer Thimsen christoffer.thimsen@jyskebank.dk Important investor information: Please see the last page Cons. Staples Cheap Medium Neutral 12-month target price 410,0 Current price Reuters Bloomberg SBRY.L SBRY LN Equity JB sec. code Pr ice tr end Sai nsbury m a m j j a s o n d j f Source: Jyske Bank & Datastream FTSE 6/11 1
8 14 March 2014 Overview Sainsbury Company profile J Sainsbury is the second-largest supermarket chain in the UK with a market share of 17%. JS almost 600 supermarkets and 500 convenience shops have 150,000 employees. Each week JS stores have 21 million customer transactions, including 130,000 orders from its online shops. For 2013 sales of GBP 23bn and an operating profit of GBP 850m are estimated. JS has booked real-estate worth GBP 10bn. JS has recently entered into sale-and-lease-back agreements. The money from this has typically been spent on expanding the network of shops. Over the past two years, JS has increased its number of square metres by impressive 15%. JS generates 100% of its sales in the UK. Sales growth and profitability 7% Sales growth 6% 4% 2% 0% Sales broken down by geographical area Sales broken down by segment Investment case Sainsbury has a high Jyske Quant score in absolute terms and JS has now over the past 32 quarters delivered organic growth, relative to the sector. The company stands out in terms of which is an impressive record that speaks for itself. JS has fundamental values and momentum, meaning that it is trading at delivered organic growth even when a weak macro-economy has an attractive discount and is driven by a good news momentum. put pressure on rivals. Prospects of macroeconomic improvement in the UK will raise the consumption in JS shops. JS pays an attractive dividend, which we expect will increase to 5% in Even during the financial crisis JS was able to deliver strong organic growth, emphasising that the business model is defensive. Price triggers Profit margin E 2015E 3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% WM Morrison 11,4% Risk factors Sainsbury 17,1% Macroeconomic upturn. Macroeconomic weakening will result in a massive price war. J Sainsbury succeeds in strengthening the price perception The macroeconomic stabilisation in the UK does not among consumers. As mentioned, we see a considerable materialise. unutilised potential for JS. JS starts losing market share. Good results and upgrade of forecast. For instance, JS has in A price war breaks out in the sector guided a pre-tax result of GBP 742m. A significant increase in commodity prices, such as crops, JS announces plans of expansion outside the UK. This will in affects JS' purchase prices and thus sales volume. our view be applauded, as JS has proven to be capable of Disappointing results. catching consumers' attention. It should be noted that JP has New financial crisis closes the access to new loans. It confirmed that it has a small team in China to investigate should, however, be borne in mind that the banks are generally expansion opportunities. comfortable about lending to the consumer stables sector JS is making progress in terms of strengthening ROCE. during financial crises. 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Andre 23,4% Asda 17,1% Arbejdsløshed (LS) Tesco 31,0% BNP vækst (RS) E2014 E2015 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% 7/11 2
9 . SECURITAS - BUY Defensive, high dividend & moderate growth We consider Securitas' defensive nature a very important quality. To this should be added that Securitas pays a stable and attractive dividend and has prospects of reasonable EPS growth. We also consider the share undervalued. Why we see Securitas as an attractive investment: A safe haven We see Securitas' defensive nature as a safe haven to place money. Even during the financial crisis Securitas reported positive EPS growth. Prospect of moderate growth: Although Securitas is no growth comet, we still expect the company to deliver moderate EPS growth of 5-10% over the coming years driven by: 1) relatively high organic growth in Latin America. 2) Moderately better market conditions in North America and Europe - particularly in Spain, France and the UK. 3) Securitas has an edge within IT-based guarding solutions. A market with explosive growth and a higher EBIT margin. Securitas wants to take advantage of its edge and win market share. 4) We expect that Securitas is on an ongoing basis focusing on reducing costs. In 2013 alone costs were reduced by SEK 300m. 5) Acquisitions of small and medium-sized companies and perhaps also buybacks of own shares. Attractive dividend: In 2014 Securitas will pay a dividend of SEK 3, corresponding to a dividend of 4.5%. This is based on a sustainable payout rate of 50% Undervalued: Securitas has an attractive valuation in absolute terms and relative to its nearest rivals. For 2014 the share is trading at a P/E of 11.3 and an EV/EBITDA of 7.8. The sector is trading at 15.2 and 9.2, respectively. This company was selected on the basis of Jyske Quant. Jyske Quant is a model that rates companies based on a string of factors. In that way, the model comes up with a total score that indicates whether the share is currently a good investment or not. This is a noncomplex product Sector Risk News flow Jyske Markets, Vestergade 8-16 DK-8600 Silkeborg Senior Analyst, Equity Research, Robert Jakobsen jrj@jyskebank.dk Industry Cheap Medium Positive 12-month target price 83.7 Current price 72,0 Reuters Bloomberg SECUb.ST SECUB SS Equity JB sec. code Pr ice tr end Securitas 30 m a m j j a s o n d j f Source: Jyske Bank & Datastream DJ EURO STOXX Quant info Share information Q uant scor e 5,2 Number of stocks (mill.) 365 Valuation 6, 0 High/Low last 12 months 75/57 Valuation relative 6, 3 Price movements 3/12 months 8%/17% Financial strenght 2, 5 - relative to index 6%/2% Quality 5, 8 Market cap (mill. SEK) Momentum 4, 3 Free float 80% Performance 3, 2 Avr. daily volume (mill.) 103 Assisting Equity Analyst, Christoffer Thimsen christoffer.thimsen@jyskebank.dk Important investor information: Please see the last page /11
10 Overview Securitas Company profile Securitas offers a broad range of security-related products for private individuals, companies and public organisations in 52 countries and has more than 300,000 employees. Securitas' markets are divided into Europe, the US and Ibero (Latin America and Portugal/Spain). Europe accounts for approx. 50% of sales, the US for around 35%, Latin America for 7% and Spain/Portugal for 8%. Securitas' activities include traditional security solutions in the form of patrolling and stationing of guards but also more advanced security solutions with a combination of guards and technology. In 2012 Securitas generated sales of SEK 66,458m and an operating profit of SEK 3,085m. Sales broken down by geographical area USA 35% IBERO 15% EU 50% Sales growth and profitability 25% 20% Sales growth Profit margin 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% E 2014E 2015E -10% -15% Sales broken down by segment Mobile and monitoring 8% Technology 6% Security solutions 86% Investment case Securitas has a good Jyske Quant score in absolute terms and We cover Securitas with a BUY recommendation and a price relative to rivals. The reason behind the good score is potential of slightly above 13%. We see a potential in the particularly that Securitas is trading at an attractive share due to 1) the company's defensive nature, 2) increased discount in absolute terms but also relative to its closest focus on reducing costs, 3) increased focus on combination rivals. solutions (service, technology and guards) and 4) a stable dividend of 5%. Price triggers Risk factors Better market conditions particularly in Europe Loss of important contracts (global customers account for The sale of combination solutions accelerates faster than approx. 6%). currently expected Combination solutions are overvalued Better-than-expected results Poor results Initiation of new cost-cutting measures Deteriorated market conditions Solid improvements in Spain Lower growth rates in Latin America Further losses in Spain 9/11
11 Disclaimer & Disclosure Jyske Bank is supervised by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. The research report is based on information which Jyske Bank finds reliable, but Jyske Bank does not assume any responsibility for the correctness of the material nor any liability for transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the report. The estimates and recommendations of the research report may be changed without notice. The report is for the personal use of Jyske Bank's customers and may not be copied. This report is an investment research report. Conflicts of interest Jyske Bank has prepared procedures to prevent and preclude conflicts of interest thus ensuring that research reports are being prepared in an objective manner. These procedures have been incorporated in the business procedures covering the equity research activities of Jyske Markets, a business unit of Jyske Bank. Moreover, equity analysts at Jyske Bank cannot trade in equities for which they prepare research reports. If an analyst takes over for the responsible analyst in connection with illness, business travels, etc., this analyst cannot trade in the relevant share on the day of publication of the research report and the following day. Jyske Bank may, however, hold positions, have interests in or business relations with the companies that are analysed. The research report has not been presented to the company prior to its release. Analysts receive no payment from persons interested in individual research reports. Read more about Jyske Bank's policy on conflicts of interest at Jyske Bank s share recommendations current allocation Allocation of recommendations, Danish shares (number) Allocation of recommendations, all shares (number) Strong Buy Buy Reduce Sell 0 Strong Buy Buy Reduce Sell Source: Jyske Bank Financial models Jyske Bank employs one or more of the following models: Discounted cash flow (free cash flow), Economic Value Added and the dividend model to determine the fundamental value of a company. The fundamental value is compared to a relative valuation based on multiples such as P/E and EV/EBITA. The recommendation and the price target are moreover adjusted for the expected news flow and the market sentiment based on knowledge of the industry and company-specific circumstances. Jyske Bank s recommendations take into account the expected development in the equity market, the various sectors and company-specific circumstances. Risk Investment in this share is associated with a risk. Movements in the equity market, the sector and/or news flows, etc. regarding the company may affect the price of the share. See the front page of the research report for our view of the risk associated with the share. The risk factors stated and/or calculations of sensitivities in the research report are not to be considered all-encompassing. If the share is traded in a currency other than the investor s base currency, the investor accepts an FX risk. In connection with an ADR or similar papers, the FX risk exists relative to the currency in which the underlying share trades. Update of research report The planned update of the report will be prepared immediately upon the release of the company s financial statements. In addition, research reports may be prepared on special themes specifically for the company or research reports where the company is part of the special theme. These research reports are published on an ad-hoc basis. See the front page for the initial date of publication of the report. All prices stated are the latest closing prices before the release of the report, unless otherwise stated. 10/11
12 Recommendation Strong buy >20% Buy 10-20% Reduce 0-10% Sell <0% Source: Jyske Bank Share recommendation concepts Risk-adjusted return Our recommendations are relative to the market development and are based on an evaluation of the forecast return within the coming 12 months. The forecast return is the difference between the current price and our 12-month price target (the price target includes the projected dividend). The equity market has historically yielded a return of around 10% (the US equity market, for instance, yielded a return of 10% during the period ). When we determine the recommendation for a share we use the 10% as an estimate of the return in the equity market. Since our recommendations are relative and risk-adjusted, it is possible to compare our recommendations across sectors and risk categories. In addition, the potential is stated in absolute terms via our price target. It should be borne in mind, however, that the recommendation is the anchor. A BUY recommendation will remain a BUY recommendation until changed, even if price increases have taken the price too close to the price target. The future and historical returns estimated in the research report are stated as returns before costs and tax-related circumstances since returns after costs and tax-related circumstances depend on a number of factors relating to individual customer relations, custodian charges, volume of trade as well as market-, currency- and product-specific factors. It is not certain that the share will yield the stated expected future return/s. The stated expected future returns exclusively express our best assessment. Risk classification definitions: Green products are products for which the risk of losing the invested amount is regarded as insignificant provided the investment is held to maturity. The product type is simple to grasp. This category includes Danish government and mortgage bonds. Amber products are products for which there is a risk of losing the invested amount partially or fully. The product type is simple to grasp. This category includes equities traded in regulated markets, mutual fund units and certificates. Red products are products for which there is a risk of losing more than the invested amount, OR product types which are difficult to grasp. This category includes structured bonds, hedge funds, options and forward exchange contracts. 11/11
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