MONDI GROUP Deutsche Bank 9 th European Paper Seminar. 8 November 2011 London

Transcription

1 MONDI GROUP Deutsche Bank 9 th European Paper Seminar 8 November 2011 London

2 Mondi s strategic positioning Current trading update Medium term sector fundamentals Cash flow prioritisation Appendices Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 2

3 Mondi s product exposure Mondi Group segment/product 1 mix Uncoated Fine Paper 28% Other 3% Corrugated 25% Kraft Paper / Bags 2 27% Coatings & Consumer Packaging 17% Packaging Good fundamental demand dynamics Aside from sack kraft, no major substitution threats Demand growth robust in emerging markets Uncoated Fine Paper (UFP) Structural decline in western Europe Emerging market expectations more robust Limited exposure to grades suffering secular decline 1 H External Revenues, excluding MPSA 2 Including films Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 3

4 Delivering on the key pillars to our strategy Leading market positions Build on leading positions in packaging and Uncoated Fine Paper (UFP), particularly in emerging markets High quality, low cost asset base Maintain position as low-cost producer in our markets: Selectively investing in production capacity in lower-cost regions Exploiting benefits of upstream integration (including forestry) Focus on performance Focus on continuous productivity improvement and cost reduction, delivered through business excellence programmes and rigorous asset management Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 4

5 Attractiveness of emerging markets Timber constraints Emerging market growth Europe (ex. Russia) is short of timber No new virgin based capacity planned in Europe Mondi is potentially ~56% self-sufficient globally Aside from Corrugated and Coatings, western markets maturing or in structural decline Emerging markets experiencing growth Corrugated around 5% 1 - ongoing benefit of west-east industrial shift and generally higher GDP growth UFP - around 2% 1 - higher GDP growth and improving PC penetration Sacks - marginally positive 1 - ongoing construction activity in line with GDP growth offsetting substitution Mondi s emerging market focus ~71% of net operating assets ~53% of revenue by destination Mondi benefits from emerging market positioning 1 Source: Mondi estimate Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 5

6 Delivering through the cycle EBITDA m H12011 ROCE % Mondi EBITDA Mondi ROCE Competitors ROCE 1 High quality, low cost, well invested asset base delivering superior returns 1 Simple average of UPM, Stora Enso, M-Real, Smurfit Kappa Group, SCA, Sappi, Norske Skog, Billerud & DS Smith Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 6

7 Supported by Balance Sheet Strength Millions H H H Q Net debt (1 632) (1 364) (1 200) (1 053) Committed facilities Of which undrawn Gearing (Net debt / Trading capital employed) 35% 30% 27% Net debt / 12 month trailing EBITDA (times) Good liquidity Average maturity of committed facilities is 4.2 years (2.6 years at 31 December 2010) Undrawn capacity on committed facilities of 726 million Credit strength Investment grade credit ratings Baa3 (outlook positive) from Moody s Investor Service Standard & Poor s upgraded Mondi in September to BBB- (outlook stable) Balance sheet strength a key differentiator Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 7

8 Mondi s strategic positioning Current trading update Medium term sector fundamentals Cash flow prioritisation Appendices Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 8

9 Current trading update Underlying operating profit in the third quarter 2011 of 136 million (Q1: 179 million, Q2: 175 million) Softer trading environment and planned maintenance shuts during the third quarter (estimated 20 million impact) Stable or reducing input costs across most business segments Recent emerging market currency weakness improving relative competitiveness Further improvements to an already robust financial position Cash flow from operations remains strong Capital expenditure markedly reduced Credit rating upgrade by S&P to investment grade BBB- (outlook stable) Some slowdown in demand and moderate pricing pressure Evidence of destocking Decisive action to take production downtime (particularly Kraft paper) Supply side fundamentals remain good Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 9

10 Mondi s strategic positioning Current trading update Medium term sector fundamentals Cash flow prioritisation Appendices Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 10

11 Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 11

12 Corrugated Market fundamentals Demand Structural demand growth 1 Western Europe 1% p.a. Eastern Europe 4% p.a. Average in Europe is around 2% p.a. Kraftliner No new capacity Supply Recycled Containerboard New capacity announced of around 1.6 million tonnes (6.5% of market) to be introduced over the next 3 years Expected to be absorbed by market growth Solid fundamentals 1 Source: Mondi estimates Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 12

13 Corrugated Commodity cycle and Mondi returns /tonne /tonne 10 year price cycle (in EUR) Mondi s ROCE (%), kraftliner price and RB fluting OCC price differential (EUR/tonne) Kraftliner RB Fluting-OCC differential 700 H1 H2 H1 H2 % ROCE % 21.9% % 12.9% 17.1% 11.9% 18.1% 20.0% 15.0% % 7.5% 6.5% 10.0% % 0.4% H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 5.0% 0.0% 6 month ROCE% (annualised) (RHS) Kraftliner RB Fluting-OCC differential Restructured business delivering strongly 1 Source: PIX FOEX Indexes Ltd Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 13

14 Bags and Coatings Market fundamentals Demand Structural demand decline for sack kraft in mature European markets Export sack kraft demand strong and structurally improved Coatings demand growth is positive in both west and east Europe Net sack kraft industry capacity reduction of ±1% 1 Supply No new sack kraft capacity currently planned Fundamentals remain positive 1 Source: Mondi estimate Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 14

15 Bags & Coatings Commodity cycle and Mondi returns 10 year price cycle (in EUR) Mondi s ROCE (%), sack kraft and indexed bags price (EUR/tonne) Unbleached sack Kraft ( /tonne) 20.0% 21.4% % 11.9% 15.3% 13.3% % 10.0% 7.3% 10.9% 7.0% 6.7% 8.3% 10.2% % % H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H month ROCE% 2007(annualised) 2008(RHS) 2009 Unbleached 2010sack Kraft 2011 ( /tonne) Excellent returns on very strong market recovery Source: Mondi - Nominal prices Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 15

16 Uncoated Fine Paper Market fundamentals Demand Structural decline in western Europe Continued growth in eastern Europe Supply Industry rationalisation continuing (Biberist, Alizay) Expected future capacity increases In Europe no new machines planned or likely Additional ~ tons expected in Russia in 2013/4 matched by anticipated demand growth Non-integrated mills remain under pressure Further supply rationalisation in western Europe likely Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 16

17 /tonne /tonne Uncoated Fine Paper Commodity cycle and Mondi returns 10 year price cycle (in EUR) Mondi s ROCE (%), Uncoated fine paper price (EUR/tonne) A4 B-copy 900 H1 H2 H1 H % ROCE 25.0% % 18.9% 20.0% % 5.8% 8.0% 8.4% 12.1% 10.5% 13.8% 15.2% 14.4% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% % H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 6 month ROCE% (annualised) (RHS) A4 B-copy 1 Reaping rewards from integrated low-cost positioning 1 Source: PIX FOEX Indexes Ltd Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 17

18 Mondi s strategic positioning Current trading update Medium term sector fundamentals Cash flow prioritisation Appendices Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 18

19 Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 19

20 Strong free cash flow generation through the cycle Millions H Net cash inflow from operating activities Capex, excluding major projects (376) (222) (238) (109) % of depreciation 103% 65% 66% 60% Investment in forestry (43) (40) (46) (23) Major projects capex (324) (300) (160) (18) Net cash inflow after investing activities (17) As at September 2011, approximately 20m left to spend on major projects Excluding further major projects, capex estimated at around 80% of depreciation Increasing free cash flow as major projects completed Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 20

21 Free Cash Flow Priorities Support dividends 1 Maintain investment grade credit metrics Selective capital expenditure opportunities, mainly around cost optimisation 2 M&A, if appropriate Increased shareholder distributions Continued disciplined cash flow allocation Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 21

22 Summary Industry dynamics Supply-side fundamentals generally remain strong in the Group's key paper grades Macroeconomic uncertainties a concern for demand in near-term Mondi s consistent strategy leaves it well-positioned to benefit Favourable product and geographic exposures, Integrated low cost position and Focus on performance Supported by a strong balance sheet with investment grade credit ratings and ample liquidity Major projects largely complete and performing well Free cash flow priorities: Support dividends Maintain investment grade credit metrics Selective capital expenditure opportunities, mainly around cost optimisation M&A, if appropriate Increased shareholder distributions Well positioned to continue delivering shareholder value Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 22

23 Mondi s strategic positioning Current trading update Medium term sector fundamentals Cash flow prioritisation Appendices Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 23

24 Mondi at a glance UFP Corrugated Bags & Coatings South Africa Newsprint 2011 H1 Sales 1 0.7B 0.7B 1.3B 0.3B 0.1B 2% 9% 24% 23% 42% 2011 EBIT % 16.1% 14.9% 9.7% 10.0% (6.6)% Products Positions in relevant markets (2011) No. 1 in Office Paper and UFP in Europe 3 Europe South Africa Europe/SA No. 2 Virgin containerboard in Europe 2 No. 3 Corrugated Packaging in central and south east Europe 4 No. 1 in Kraft Paper in Europe 2 No. 1 in Industrial Bags in Europe 3 No. 1 in Commercial release liner in Europe 3 No. 1 in Office Paper in SA 2 No. 1 in White Top Kraftliner in SA 2 No. 1 in Newsprint in South Africa 2 1 Segment revenues, including inter-segment revenues. EBIT % is before special items. 2 Based on production capacity. 3 Based on sales. 4 Based on production. Sources: RISI, Pöyry Forest Industry Consulting, Freedonia, BMI Foodpack, PAMSA, Mondi. Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 24

25 Integrated value chain (first half 2011) Leading market positions 2.5 Pulp 0.7 Virgin Containerboard + High quality, low cost asset base low cost asset base Millions of tonnes (0.5) (0.2) Production Consumption Net long/(short) E&I SAD Other position Millions of tonnes Production Consumption Net long position E&I SAD Upstream production cost advantages Millions of tonnes Kraft Paper Millions of tonnes Recycled Containerboard Production Consumption Net long position 0.0 Production Consumption Net long position E&I E&I Exploiting benefits of upstream integration Source: Mondi H1 2011, excluding Mpact Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 25

26 H Highlights 1 Earnings significantly up versus 2010 on all measures Group ROCE 2 of 15.2% Cash generated from operations of 403 million Interim dividend of 8.25 euro cents per ordinary share 1 Refinancing of revolving credit facility completed Completion of Mpact demerger and related Mondi Ltd share consolidation Positive trading environment and strong operational performance 1 From continuing operations, therefore excluding Mpact 2 Return on capital employed, 12 month trailing, excluding Mpact Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 26

27 Effects of Mpact demerger and related share consolidation Including Mpact 6 months Excluding Mpact and after share consolidation 12 month trailing Including Mpact 1 Excluding Mpact and after share consolidation Underlying operating profit ( million) Underlying net profit ( million) Underlying earnings per share ( cent per share) TURNOVER BY DESTINATION NET SEGMENT ASSETS Before After Before After 12% 4% 25% 19% 88% 96% 75% 81% South Africa Rest of World South Africa Rest of World Transaction EPS neutral on trailing 12 months basis 1 Calculated as H Full year 2010 H After deducting non-controlling interest Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 27

28 Mondi 8 November 2011 Page 28