CONSUMPTION TRENDS AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ASIA S CHANGING TRADE. Brian Jackson, Senior Economist,
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1 CONSUMPTION TRENDS AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ASIA S CHANGING TRADE Brian Jackson, Senior Economist, brian.jackson@ihsmarkit.com 1 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
2 Asia overview 1 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
3 Percent USD 3 High wage levels in China create competitive opportunities for regional neighbors manufacturing sectors Wage growth, manufacturing China India Indonesia Vietnam Wage levels, manufacturing, hourly China India Indonesia Vietnam IHS IHS 1 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
4 Percent USD trillions (1) Despite faster growth, India s industrial sector will remain smaller than ASEAN s and well behind China s Real industrial sector growth Real industrial sector levels 1 1 ASEAN China India Indonesia Vietnam IHS IHS 1 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
5 Percent USD trillions (1) 5 Vietnam will lead trade growth, ASEAN s incremental gain will nearly rival China s in the coming two decades Real total trade growth Real total trade levels 1 1 ASEAN China India Indonesia Vietnam IHS IHS 1 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
6 Percent USD trillions (1) India will top consumption growth rates over the next years, but remain a distant second to China in levels Real consumption growth Real consumption levels 1 1 ASEAN China India Indonesia Vietnam IHS IHS 1 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
7 7 China deep dive The impact of economic restructuring on consumption and trade 1 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
8 What is restructuring? GDP concepts > Distribution of supply agriculture, industry and construction, services > Distribution of income profits, taxes and wages > Distribution of expenditure consumption, investment and net exports Other restructuring > Debt intensity of growth > Ownership of productive assets > Urbanization and demographics 1 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
9 9 Starting in 11, China s service sector gains increasingly fueled by industrial sector losses China nominal GDP composition, percent share China real GDP growth, percent Primary Secondary Tertiary 1 IHS Tertiary Secondary Primary Tertiary share of growth (RHS) 1 IHS 1 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
10 Percentage point contributions 1 Every industrial sector in China impacted by the secular slowdown Contributions to Chinese GDP growth Construction Utilities Light manufacturing Heavy manufacturing Mining 1 IHS 1 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
11 Percent change year ago Million square meters, 1MMA 11 China real estate growth impressive mostly due to cyclical rebound, levels remain low by historic standards Residential floor space indicators China's residential floor space activity, levels Completions Under construction Starts Sold Source: NBS 1 IHS Completed Sold Started 1 IHS 1 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
12 Percentage point contributions 1 China s service sector relatively stable, but increasingly dominated by other services Contributions to Chinese GDP growth Other services Real estate Finance Accommodation, catering Wholesale, retail Transport, storage, post 1 IHS 1 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
13 Percent share 13 Chinese service sector composition and size shows ample room for growth in other services Service sector share of GDP, China US Other services Real estate Finance Accommodation, catering Wholesale, retail Transport, storage, postal 1 IHS Service sector share of GDP, 15 Public management Culture, sports and recreation Health care, social security Education Resident services Utilities management R&D Leasing and commercial IT 1 3 Percent share Non-public Public 1 IHS 1 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
14 Percentage point contribution Share Percentage point contribution Share 1 Investment in underperforming traditional sectors slowed markedly since 11 China fixed-asset investment growth 5 9 China fixed-asset investment growth Construction Utilities Light manufacturing Heavy manufacturing Mining Secondary sector share of FAI growth 1 IHS Other services Real estate Finance Accommodation, catering Wholesale, retail Transport, storage, post Tertiary sector share of FAI growth 1 IHS 1 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
15 15 Services growth largely fueled by domestic consumption and capital formation expenditure China sector output by expenditure Agriculture Mining Heavy manufacturing Light manufacturing Utilities Construction Transport, storage, postal Wholesale, retail Accommodation, catering Finance Real estate Other services Share of GDP Consumption Capital formation Exports Imports 1 IHS 1 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
16 1 Industry accounts for over 3% of China trade; its lower growth path is equivalent to a weaker trade outlook China expenditure by sector Consumption Capital formation Exports Imports Share of GDP Agriculture Industry Construction Services 1 IHS 1 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
17 17 Chinese growth increasingly dominated by consumeroriented services, especially from onward Contributions to China's real GDP growth Services Non-manufacturing industry Manufacturing Agriculture 1 IHS 1 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
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