Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)
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- Erica Quinn
- 5 years ago
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1 Equity Research Results Note Friday, 26 October 2018 HOLD Maintain Last price (IDR) 22,900 Target Price (IDR) 22,700 Upside/Downside -0.9% Previous Target Price (IDR) 22,700 Stock Statistics Sector Bloomberg Ticker Banking BBCA IJ No of Shrs (mn) 24,945 Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 571,235/37,611 Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 358.7/23.6 Major shareholders (%) PT Dwimuria Investama 54.9 Anthony Salim 1.8 Estimated free float 43.0 EPS Consensus (IDR) 2018F 2019F 2020F Danareksa 1, , ,434.2 Consensus 1, , ,333.9 Danareksa/Cons BBCA relative to JCI Index Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) Maintaining its conservative style We reiterate our HOLD call on BBCA, noting its premium valuation at 3.7x 2018F P/BV following the release of soft results with IDR18.5tn of net profits in 9M18. Looking ahead, we do not expect more room for a lower blended CoF after policy rate hikes of 150bps in total. Moreover, BBCA s management also views that the bank will focus more on managing its ample liquidity in view of its transactional banking business model. 9M18 highlights. The IDR18.5tn of net profits are at the lower range of our forecast (70.5% of our FY18F) as the 9M number in the past three years was % of the full year figure. Despite that, loans still grew briskly at 17.3% yoy driven by rapid 23.3% growth in the corporate segment. The NIM, meanwhile, only dipped by 9bps to 6.1%. The credit cost declined to 47bps from 9M17 s figure of 59bps. In addition, the gross NPLs ratio was slightly lower at 1.4% as of September 2018 and should be maintain at this level until end of the year in our view. Limited room for a lower blended CoF. Given BBCA s status as the transactional bank of choice, the bank benefits from substantial CASA deposits in its funding structure. Its current maximum 1-month TD rate is 5.5% as of October 2018, already at the same level as that of other banks after policy rate hikes of 150bps in total. As a result, we see limited room for further declines in its blended CoF going forward. We therefore project a stable blended CoF of 2.1% this year with the proportion of CASA deposits reaching 76.9% of total customer deposits by the end of the year. Comfortable LFR below 85%. BBCA posted an all-time high LFR and LDR at 80.9% and 84% as of September However, BBCA s management views that its recent 17.3% yoy loans growth should normalise towards the end of the year. As such, our 11.9% yoy loans growth for this year is reasonable in our view. Moving into next year, BBCA s management emphasised the importance of securing its liquidity. Furthermore, the bank s management is targeting a comfortable LFR at below 85% next year. This is inline with our LFR projection of 84% by the end of next year. Maintain HOLD, TP: IDR22,700. We reiterate our HOLD call on BBCA with an unchanged GGM-derived TP of IDR22,700 (implying 3.6x 2018F P/BV) assuming 7.8% CoE, 19% sustainable ROAE and 3% long-term growth. Source : Bloomberg Eka Savitri (62-21) ext 3506 eka.savitri@danareksa.co.id Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F PPOP (IDRbn) 30,400 31,791 36,042 40,332 47,438 Net profit (IDRbn) 20,606 23,310 26,257 29,958 35,361 EPS (IDR) , , ,434.2 EPS growth (%) BVPS (IDR) 4, , , , ,540.0 PER (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROAE (%) Source : BBCA, Danareksa Estimates See important disclosure at the back of this report 1
2 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Exhibit 1. Loans and Growth Exhibit 2. Net Interest Income and Growth Exhibit 3. NIM and LDR Exhibit 4. NPLs Exhibit 5. PE BAND CHART 25.0 x Exhibit 6. PBV ROAE BAND CHART 5.0 x % Fwd P/E Mean +1SD -1SD Fwd P/BV Mean +1SD -1SD ROAE (RHS) See important disclosure at the back of this report 2
3 Exhibit 7. BBCA s result FYE Dec (IDRbn) 3Q17 2Q18 3Q18 QoQ (%) YoY (%) 9M17 9M18 YoY (%) Net interest income 10,591 10,981 11, ,948 33, Net interest margin (%) Non-interest income 3,710 3,844 4, ,773 12, Non-II/Total income (%) Operating income 14,301 14,825 16, ,721 45, Overhead expenses (5,539) (6,751) (6,528) (3.3) 17.9 (18,785) (20,876) 11.1 Cost-Income Ratio (%) Pre-provisions profit 8,762 8,075 9, ,936 25, Provisions allowance (894) (638) (921) (1,829) (1,747) (4.5) Credit cost - annualised (bps) Pretax profit 7,869 7,437 8, ,107 23, Tax (1,555) (1,524) (1,896) (4,256) (4,802) 12.8 Effective tax rate (%) Profit after tax 6,313 5,913 7, ,851 18, Minority Interest (6) (0) (2) (69.8) (10) (2) (79.8) Net Profit 6,307 5,913 7, ,842 18, Other Key Data and Ratios Gross loans 439, , , , , Customer deposits 574, , ,893 (0.3) , , Gross NPL ratio 6,729 7,075 7, ,729 7, Total assets 739, , , , , Equity 127, , , , , ROAA (%) ROAE (%) LDR (%) Gross NPL ratio (%) Loan loss coverage (%) CAR (%) Source : Company, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates See important disclosure at the back of this report 3
4 Exhibit 8. Income Statement Interest Income 50,426 53,768 58,729 63,692 71,917 Interest Expense (10,347) (11,941) (13,236) (14,131) (15,349) Net Interest Income 40,079 41,826 45,493 49,560 56,568 Non-Interest Income (NII) 13,700 15,155 18,059 21,009 24,541 Oper. Income 53,779 56,982 63,552 70,570 81,109 Oper. Expenses (23,379) (25,190) (27,510) (30,238) (33,671) Pre-provisions profit 30,400 31,791 36,042 40,332 47,438 Provisions & Allowances (4,561) (2,633) (2,999) (2,869) (3,219) Operating Profits 25,839 29,159 33,043 37,463 44,219 Non-Operating Income Exceptionals Pre-tax Profit 25,839 29,159 33,043 37,463 44,219 Income Tax (5,207) (5,838) (6,774) (7,493) (8,844) Minorities (27) (11) (12) (13) (14) Net Profit 20,606 23,310 26,257 29,958 35,361 Exhibit 9. Balance Sheet Gross Loans 415, , , , ,380 Provisions (12,505) (13,244) (15,607) (16,441) (17,774) Net Loans 403, , , , ,606 Govt. Bonds Securities 113, , , , ,713 Other Earnings Assets 11,788 12,815 13,439 14,562 15,718 Total Earnings Assets 599, , , , ,122 Fixed Assets 25,234 25,949 27,776 29,604 31,281 Non-Earnings Assets 13,099 18,597 14,285 15,327 16,070 Total Assets 676, , , ,520 1,025,074 Customer Deposits 530, , , , ,171 Banks Deposits 4,901 5,758 4,281 4,379 4,758 Int. Bearing Liab. - Others 548, , , , ,296 Total Liabilities 564, , , , ,422 Share capital & Reserves 13,930 15,305 14,467 14,673 14,570 Retained Earnings 98, , , , ,983 Shareholders' Funds 112, , , , ,553 Minority interests Total Equity & Liabilities 676, , , ,520 1,025,074 See important disclosure at the back of this report 4
5 Exhibit 10. Ratios Yield on Earning Assets Cost of funds Interest Spread Net Interest Margin Cost/Income Ratio Oper. Exp./Oper. Gross Inc Gross NPL Ratio LLP/Gross NPL Cost of Credit Loan to Deposit Ratio Loan to Funding Ratio CASA Mix ROAE ROAA CAR Exhibit 11. Dupont and growth Year to 31 Dec 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F Dupont Pre-Tax ROAA Tax Retention rate Post-Tax ROAA Goodwil, Assoc& Min Leverage ROAE Growth (%) Interest income Net Interest Income Other Oper. Expenses Fee Based Income Pre-Provision Oper. Profit Net Profit Shareholders Equity Loan Earnings Asset Deposit Int. Bearing Liab CASA Total Asset Source : BBCA, Danareksa Estimates
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