CAVOTEC. Improving margins Continued restructuring Slow order intake SHARE PRICE (SEK): 22,70 INTRODUCE.SE

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1 SHARE PRICE (SEK): CAVOTEC 22,7 NASDAQ OMX Mid Cap Industrials Improving margins Continued restructuring Slow order intake Improving margins. Given a weak start of the year and bearish management comments our projections for Q2 were not very high. Sales in fact fell organicly by approximately 5%, which was more than we expected but the operating profit of EUR 7.5 m (2,3) was substantially higher than in our forecast. It should be said that EBIT includes positive non-recurring amounting to EUR 3.2 m but even excluding those items the operating margin improved to 8,% (3,9). Cavotec was able to compensate the lack of large order by a number of smaller ones, which obviously had a positive impact on gross margin. In spite of lower sales working capital increased, which led to a negative opertaing cash flow. Management is focusing closely on the subject Continued restructuring. In order to improve profitability management continues to focus on Cavotec s core products as its Alternative Maritime Power (AMP) supply systems for ships and Automated Mooring Systems MoorMaster. In the former product area Cavotec recieved orders amounting to approximately EUR 9 m. MoorMaster also announced two major breakkthroghs in the period. Parallel to this management is working to reduce the number of production units and taking a numbr of steps to lower the administration costs. Slow order intake. The order intake in Q2 fell by almost 2% y/y and management projects that the lack of large orders will continue in the months ahead. However the improved margins in the last quarter shows that some of the steps taken by management is starting to come through. In spite of the fact that we are lowering our sales estimates for the remaining part of the year we are thus keeping our operating profit forecasts unchanged. Our estimates for 217 and beyound is based upon a stronger world economy and shows the effect higher sales would have on profits. COMPANY DESCRIPTION Cavotec is a global engineering group delivering transmission, distribution and control technologies to Ports & Maritime, Airports, Mining & Tunneling and General industry sectors. All design and manufacture takes place in their nine Centres of Excellence. Cavotec has an extensive network of local sales companies in almost 4 countries. Analyst: Claes Vikbladh claes.vikbladh@remium.com, +46 () KEY DATA Market Capitalization (MSEK SHARE PERFORMANCE mon. (%) 1,2 Net Debt (MSEK) mon. (%) 6,1 Enterprise Value (MSEK) mon. (%) -18,6 Equity ratio(%) 55 YTD (%) -8,8 No of shares.(mn) 78,5 52-V High 29,4 No of shares (dil.mn) 78,5 52-V Low 2, Free Float (%) 83,5 Ticker CCC 214A 215A 216E 217E Sales (MEUR) EBITDA (MEUR) 17, 12,4 21,3 25, EBIT (MEUR) 12,6 7,6 16,6 19,9 EBT (MEUR) 16,2 12,8 14,8 18,5 EPS (adj. EUR),13,9,8,16 DPS (EUR),4,3,3,4 Sales growth (%) EPS growth (%) EBIT-margin (%) 3,3 7,6 8,2 1,3 214A 215A 216E 217E P/E (x) 21,3 34,1 19,3 15, P/BV (x) 1,6 1,5 1,3 1,2 EV/Sales (x) 1, 1,,9,8 EV/EBITDA (x) 14, 18,9 9,6 7,7 EV/EBIT (x) 18,9 26,6 15,3 9,7 Div. Yield (%) 1,5 1,1 1,3 1,7 STOCK PERFORMANCE CCC OMXSPI (rebased) Source: Infront, company reports, Remium Nordic, Holdings MAJOR SHARHOLDERS CAPITAL Bure Equity AB 16,5%,165 16,5% Fabio Cannavale 9,3% 9,3% LCL International Life Assurance Co. 9,2% 9,2% Stefan Widegren 7,4% 7,4% MANAGEMENT Chairman Stefan Widengren 3Q-report CEO Ottonel Popesco 4Q-report CFO Kristiina Leppänen FINANCIAL CALENDER VOTES Viktig information: All information kring ansvarsbegränsningar och potentiella intressekonflikter finns att läsa i slutet av dokumentet Remium Nordic AB 1

2 INCOME STATEMENT MEUR 1Q15A 2Q15A 3Q15A 4Q15A 1Q16A 2Q16A 3Q16E 4Q16E 213A 214A 215A 216E 217E 218E Sales 41,3 58,8 53,3 78,8 46,1 53,9 51, 67, 227,7 232,8 232,2 218, 243,6 253, COGS -19,5-27,6-26, -4,5-22, -24,2-24,1-32,1-119, -116, -113,6-12,4-112,5-113,9 Gross revenue 23, 32,4 29,1 4,3 25,3 35,1 29,5 37,7 114,6 124,9 124,6 127,6 137, 145,2 Operating costs -25,5-28,7-27,8-3,3-26,6-26,5-25, -28,1-99,6-17,9-112,3-16,2-112, -113,9 EBITDA -2,5 3,7 1,3 9,9-1,3 8,6 4,5 9,5 15, 17, 12,4 21,3 25, 31,3 Depreciation -1,1-1,3-1,1-1,2-1,1-1,2-1,2-1,2-4,5-4,5-4,8-4,7-5,1-5,2 EBIT -3,6 2,3,2 8,8-2,4 7,4 3,3 8,3 1,5 12,6 7,6 16,6 19,9 26,1 Net financials 6,1,2 -,4 -,7-1,3,2 -,4 -,4-1,6 3,7 5,2-1,9-1,4-1,3 EBT 2,5 2,6 -,2 8, -3,7 7,6 2,9 8, 8,9 16,2 12,8 14,8 18,5 24,8 Tax & minorities -,7-1,8-3,6 -,5 -,2-1,6 -,9-2,4 1,5-6, -6,7-5,1-5,9-7,9 Net result 1,7,8-3,8 7,5-3,9 6, 2, 5,6 1,5 1,2 6,1 9,7 12,6 16,8 EPS (EUR),2,1 -,5,1 -,5,8,3,7,15,13,8,12,16,21 Adj EPS (EUR),2,1 -,5,11 -,5,4,3,7,15,13,9,8,16,21 Sales Growth Q/Q -44% 41% -8% 47% -41% 25% -1% 3% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Sales Growth Y/Y 1% 1% -2% 7% 12% -1% -3% -14% 4% 3% -1% -3% 9% 4% Adj. EBITDA margin -6% 6% 2% 13% -3% 16% 9% 14% 7% 7% 5% 1% 1% 12% Adj. EBIT margin -9% 4% % 11% -5% 14% 6% 12% 5% 5% 3% 8% 8% 1% Adj. EBT margin 6% 4% % 12% -8% 8% 6% 12% 4% 7% 6% 5% 8% 1% CASH FLOW PER SHARE DATA & RETURN ON CAPITAL MEUR 213A 214A 215A 216E 217E 218E EUR 213A 214A 215A 216E 217E 218E Cash flow b.f. ch. in work.cap EPS,15,13,8,12,16,21 Change in working capital Adj. EPS,15,13,9,8,16,21 Cash flow from operating activities BVPS (SEK) 13,48 16,48 16,35 17,88 19,2 2,68 Cash flow from investments CEPS -,1 -,1,,17,25,26 Free Cash Flow DPS,4,4,3,3,4,4 Cash flow from financing ROE 1% 8% 4% 7% 8% 1% Net Cash Flow Adj. ROE 8% 7% 5% 4% 8% 1% Solidity 57% 54% 54% 57% 56% 58% BALANCE SHEET MEUR 213A 214A 215A 216E 217E 218E SHARE STRUCTURE Intanglible Assets No. of A-shares (m) - Via S. Balestra 27 CH-69 Lugano, Cash and cash equivalent No. of B-shares (m) 78,5 Switzerland Total Assets Equity Net Debt Net Working Capital Total no. of shares (m) 78, Sources: Infront, Company reports, Remium Nordic COMPANY CONTACT ESTIMATE CHANGES 2Q 216A 216E 217E MEURO Estimate Actual Diff (%) Before Now Diff (%) Before Now Diff (%) Sales 57, 53,9-5% 227, 218, -4% 244,6 243,6 % EBIT 2,6 7,4 nmf 1,4 16,6 6% 18,9 19,9 5%,2,8,5,8,15,16 Adj EPS (EUR) nmf 66% 7% Remium Nordic AB 2

3 INCOME STATEMENT SALES & EBIT, Y/Y (MSEK) SALES & EBIT-MARGIN, Q/Q (MSEK) A 211A 212A 213A 214A 215A 216E 217E 218E Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2Q43EQ4E % 1% 5% % -5% -1% Sales EBIT Sales EBIT-margin GROWTH & BALANCE SHEET SALES GROWTH Y/Y NET DEBT & NET DEBT/EBITDA 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q43E Q4E A 211A 212A 213A 214A 215A 216E 217E 218E Net debt Net debt/ebitda 3,X 2,5X 2,X 1,5X 1,X,5X,X -,5X MARGINS, ROLLING 12m GROSS MARGIN (R12m) EBIT-MARGIN (R12m) 6% 58% 56% 54% 52% 5% 48% 46% Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q43EQ4E 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q43EQ4E Gross margin EBIT-margin Remium Nordic AB 3

4 COMPANY SPECIFICS SALES BREAKDOWN MARKET UNITS (%)* ORDER BOOK BREAKDOWN MARKET UNITS (%)* Ports & Maritime Ports & Maritime Airports Airports Mining & Tunnelling General Industry Mining & Tunnelling General Industry * Per annual report 215 COMPANY DESCRIPTION Cavotec is a global engineering group that enables industries worldwide to improve productivity, safety and sustainability. The Group delivers power transmission, distribution and control technologies that form the link between fixed and mobile equipment in the Ports & Maritime, Airports, Mining & Tunnelling and General Industry sectors. All design and manufacture of Cavotec systems takes place at nine Centres of Excellence. Sales companies in 35 countries provide for a global network of engineering expertise. Among Cavotec s current innovative products MoorMaster provide for one of the highest potentials. The product is built upon a vacuum-based automated mooring technology that eliminates the need for conventional mooring lines. Remote controlled vacuum pads recessed in, or mounted on the quayside or pontoons, moor or release vessels in second. The financial goals incorporate an organic growth of 1% CAGR and an EBIT margin of 12% over the coming years. Remium Nordic AB 4

5 DISCLAIMER - IMPORTANT INFORMATION Legally responsible publisher: Claes Vikbladh, Remium Nordic AB ( Remium ) Research performed by: Claes Vikbladh, analyst, Remium. DISCLAIMER Content and sources This document was prepared by Remium for general distribution. The content is based on judgements, recommendations and estimates prepared by Remium s analysts; generally available and public information that has been deemed reliable; or other specified sources. Judgements, recommendations and estimates pertaining to the valuation of financial instruments or companies named in this analysis are based on one or more valuation methods, such as cash flow analysis, key figures analysis, or technical analysis of price movements. Assumptions that are the basis for forecasts, target prices and estimates quoted or reproduced herein are found in the research material from the specified sources. Remium cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of external information. The content of the document is based on information that was current as of the date the document was published. Circumstances upon which this document was based may be affected by subsequent events, which naturally cannot be taken into account in this document. Judgements, recommendations and estimates may also change without prior notice. Please see for an explanation of the implications of the recommendations [ buy, sell and hold ]. The document has not been reviewed prior to publication by any company mentioned in this analysis. Unless otherwise stated herein, Remium has not entered into an agreement with any of the companies mentioned to produce the recommendations in this analysis. Remium s investment recommendations are based on the analyst s opinion as to how the share should be valued when the recommendation is finalised. Remium s analysts normally update an investment recommendation only if a significant event has occurred that in the considered opinion of the analyst affects the value of the share. Risks The information herein must not be construed as a solicitation or recommendation to enter into any transaction. The information is not geared to the individual recipient s knowledge about or experience with investments or his or her financial situation or investment objectives. The information therefore does not constitute a personal recommendation or investment advice. The information must not be regarded as advice concerning the tax consequences of investment decisions. Investors are urged to augment the information provided herein with additional relevant material and to consult a financial adviser before making investment decisions. Remium disclaims any and all liability for direct or indirect losses that may be based on this document. Investments in financial instruments are associated with financial risk. Investments may increase or decrease in value or become worthless. Forecasts of future performance are based on assumptions and there is no guarantee that forecasts will prove to be accurate. Furthermore, historical performance does not guarantee future returns. Conflicts of interest Remium has established ethical guidelines and internal rules (policies and procedures) to identify, monitor and manage conflicts of interest. These are intended to prevent, preclude and, where applicable, manage conflicts of interest between the research department and other departments within the company and are based on restrictions (Chinese walls) imposed upon interdepartmental communications. Remium has also established internal rules that govern when trading is permitted in a financial instrument that is the subject of investment research. For more information about Remium s actions to prevent, preclude and manage conflicts of interest, please see Remium is a market leader in corporate services related to listed small and medium cap companies, within Introduce, Liquidity Provider and Certified Adviser, and may perform commissioned and paid research on behalf of the companies that are covered in the research products Remium Review, Remium Insight, et al. The reader of this document may assume that Remium has received or will receive payment from the small and medium cap companies covered in the research in exchange for the performance of corporate financial services, which may lead to conflicts of interest between Remium and clients who read and act upon the research. The remuneration is agreed in advance and is not contingent upon the content of the research. Remium provides the following corporate services to Cavotec: Introduce. Remium s Corporate Finance department has not performed services related to public offerings (listings, quotations, or issues) in the past 12 months for the companies herein. Companies in the Remium Group, their clients, management, or employees normally own or have positions in securities named herein. The analyst who has prepared this analysis and his or her family/close associates have no significant financial interest in the financial instruments and recommendations to which the document refers and do not own or have positions in these financial instruments. Remium s analysts do not receive any remuneration directly connected to any corporate finance services provided by Remium or any of Remium s mandates within Introduce, Liquidity Provider and Certified Adviser. Please click here for information about our historical investment recommendations. Recommendations from the research department during the last twelve months are distributed as follows (updated quarterly): Buy: 79% Hold: 16% Sell: 5% Recommendations from the research department during the last twelve months concerning the companies to which Remium provides, or has provided during the last twelve months, Liquidity Provider and/or Corporate Finance services are distributed as follows (updated quarterly): Buy: 12% Hold: 7% Sell: % No recommendation: 81% Distribution of this document The document is not intended for natural or legal persons that are citizens of or domiciled in a country where distribution, announcement, publication, or participation requires a further prospectus, registration, or measures other than those required under Swedish law and regulations. Such countries include the United States of America, Canada, Australia, Hong Kong, South Africa, New Zealand and Japan. No measures have or will be taken by Remium to permit distribution, announcement and publication in the aforementioned countries. This document must not be distributed, duplicated, quoted or referred to in such a manner that the content of the document is altered or distorted. About Remium Remium is a credit market company regulated by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen). Remium Nordic AB 5

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