FX-Insights. USD/MYR: A Tempered Rise MACRO FX RESEARCH MYR. September 16, 2014
|
|
- Karin Bruce
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 MACRO FX RESEARCH MYR FX-Insights September 16, 2014 USD/MYR: A Tempered Rise MYR reversed out much of its 3Q gains against the USD by 15 Sep and was last seen around the 3.23-figure. The pair has been underpinned generally by external factors, i.e. broad dollar strength, rise in global currency volatility as well as the rise in UST rates that could possibly mean the end of conducive carry trade. Yesterday s 300pip upward move could largely be attributed to China s weak Aug data over the weekend and closing of long positions ahead of the Malaysia Day holiday. We anticipate choppy USD/MYR action, torn by opposing forces. Whilst the global financial environment turns against the MYR, we expect subdued bond inflows, ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts, positive trade cues thus far, and possibly BNM rate hike to underpin the MYR. Our economic team anticipates a 25bps hike on 18 th Sep, the last for the year before standing pat thereafter until end 1H Our MYR model that takes into consideration fundamentals and market indicators, projects a USD/MYR forecast of around 3.13 towards the end of the year. Our fair value model estimates USD/MYR at 3.08 on the longer 5-year horizon. However, taking into consideration global currency risk premiums, we favour the upper end of the range seen at the end of the year. Analysts Saktiandi Supaat saktiandi@maybank.com.sg (+65) Leslie Tang leslietang@maybank.com.sg (+65) Fiona Lim Fionalim@maybank.com.sg (+65) Chart 1: USD/MYR Daily, Violating the Trend Channel Source: Bloomberg; Maybank FX Research SEE PAGE 6 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
2 Our Full Story MYR weakened 1.7% since 8-Sep against the USD, one of the worst performers among its peers. The currency was hit exceptionally hard after China s industrial production came in shockingly soft for Aug. USD/MYR has bounced above the 3.23-figure in a swift upmove from low-3.14 levels around end Aug. The first trigger stemmed from the rise in UST rates after Fed San Francisco released a report that suggests that the markets have been under-estimating the possibility of an earlier-than anticipated rate hike by the Fed. Chart 2 reveals that MYR has actually weathered the dollar strength pretty well until recently. USD/MYR remained relatively stable even as the DXY surpassed its 2014 high in Aug, only making a significant bounce within the past two weeks. Risk-off exacerbated the USD/MYR rally as Asian investors digest the weak China data. Chart 2: USD/MYR vs DXY Sources: Bloomberg LP, Maybank FX Research The inevitable must come as US economic recovery becomes more entrenched. The carry trade environment had a good run and MYR players would have to brace for a change in environment where the USD could no longer be a funding currency. China weakness at this point could drag on the currency. However, we are unlikely to see the dramatic rally in the pair that was observed in Rather, we anticipate choppy action where a myriad of factors could pull USD/MYR in opposite direction. Besides, the further ECB and BoJ easing measures could lead to some support as euro and JPY funding for carry trades remain to some extent. We should continue to see some level of eurozone real money funds interest in regional currencies on the back of better fundamentals. Strong Fundamentals Put MYR on good footing Fiscal Consolidation Efforts to Pay off. As we have noted repeatedly in our previous notes, the Malaysian government has demonstrated commitment to straighten out its fiscal accounts by cutting subsidies in the past year. Subsidies of gas, electricity and sugar were cut one after another. As a result, budget deficit in 1H 2014 slipped to MYR 19.1bn which is 3.7% of GDP. Malaysia s budget deficit target of 3.5% of GDP by end 2014 is still on track but not without risks of deterioration. The fuel subsidy mechanism is under review as the government intends for only a specific group to be eligible for subsidized fuels, via means-testing, 16 September
3 quota and smart-card technology. We view its implementation and execution to be administratively challenging with potential loopholes for leakage. That said, any slippages should not derail efforts. Looking forward, Budget 2015 will be eyed closely for a follow-through in the government s fiscal consolidation effort thus far. Crucial in the coming year is the GST implementation in Apr. We expect the government to stand by its commitment as Malaysia remains under negative watch by Fitch Rating Agency. In addition, domestic demand has weathered the subsidy rationalization program rather well so far and would likely boost the government s confidence to straighten out its fiscal bill. A temporary surge in demand to offset expected eventual bond outflows. Assuming that Malaysia will lower budget deficit, our fixed income analyst also expects lower gross debt issuance by the government next year given the lower financing needs. More debt switches are expected. A surge in demand is thus, anticipated before the end of the year which could be positive for MYR. Nonetheless, the high composition of foreign debt holdings could see an outflow once Fed signals a rate hike and yield spreads start to compress. That phenomenon is already being played out. As such, we look for subdued bond inflows towards the end of the year. External demand exceeded expectations this year, prompting our economic team to bump up the full year forecast of trade balance to a wider surplus of MYR87.9bn. Near-term global trade conditions remain positive as global manufacturing PMI (as monitored by our economic team on 32 countries) improved to 52.6 in Aug from 52.4 reported in the month prior. We expect steady trade surplus to lend support to the MYR. External Headwinds and Tailwinds The US Fed will exit QE soon and rate hikes are on the cards as economic indicators signal stronger growth. Regardless of when Fed will shift its rhetoric, we expect the inevitable to happen as mentioned in the earlier part of this report. On the other hand, BOJ and ECB are expected to ease further. The policy divergences between the developed economies open up new regional search for yield opportunities that could support emerging market FX, including the MYR. In fact, flows from Europe makes up a generally sustained 30% of total direct investment liabilities into Malaysia (i.e. this includes portfolio investment (equity and debt) + direct fdi) in 2013 as shown in Chart 3 while that from Japan makes 10%. Further easing from both central banks should temper the USD/MYR rise. Chart 3: Europe Makes 30% of Direct Investment Liabilities as of 2013 Chart 4: Bond Inflows Expected To Rise Sources: Dept of Statistics, Maybank FX Research Source: CEIC, Maybank FX Research 16 September
4 Mar-07 Nov-07 Jul-08 Mar-09 Nov-09 Jul-10 Mar-11 Nov-11 Jul-12 Mar-13 Nov-13 Jul-14 Mar-15 Nov-15 Sep-2014 Mar-2015 Sep-2015 Mar-2016 Sep-2016 Mar-2017 Sep-2017 Mar-2018 Sep-2018 Mar-2019 Sep-2019 Mar-2020 USD/MYR: A Tempered Rise Net bond flows year-to-date have been generally supportive of the MYR and within the next 3 months we do not expect any major net outflows similar to that in the middle of In addition, with lower gross debt issuance by the Malaysian government next year, given lower financing needs, we expect mild support for the Malaysian debt markets. This suggests that the MYR may remain somewhat constrained in its push up towards the range, unless we see significant dollar strength driven by extremely hawkish signals by the Fed, strong euro declines driven by weaker fundamentals and significantly negative Chinese data coming onstream. USD/MYR Models Chart 5: USD/MYR Model Chart 6: USD/MYR Fair Value Projection Myr forecast USDMYR (Actual) +1 std dev -1 std dev Implied USD/MYR 4 per. Mov. Avg. (Implied USD/MYR) Sources: CEIC, Bloomberg LP, Maybank FX Research Using our MYR model and a base scenario of stronger fiscal position, concomitant lower credit default swap points, steady trade surplus and subdued bond inflows, USD/MYR is projected to trend lower towards 3.13 by the end of this year as seen in Chart 5 while that of the fair value trends towards 3.08 for Despite the bullish MYR picture depicted by our models, we also have to take into account the risk premium of US Fed s rate hike and other event risk. This is supported by the USD/MYR options market which seems to be showing further skew upwards for the USD/MYR albeit mildly in the near term. Chart 7: USD Call MYR Put Forward Delta without premium adjustment (as at 16 Sep 2014) Source: Bloomberg 16 September
5 More recently, the USD/MYR forward implied yields (see Chart 8 proxy indicator for carry trade) have fallen onshore as the UST rates bounced off their lows and global currency volatility rises. The 3-mth implied yields have been rising since early this year, suggesting MYR benefitted from the carry trade run for the most part of But with the rise in recent global currency volatility, higher expectations of a US rate increase, unraveling the carry trade plays, MYR may have weakened in tandem, playing out the scenario that we have envisioned since the start of the year. However, we do not expect an exodus given still significant liquidity in the system out of the eurozone and Japan. Chart 8: 3M Forward Implied Yields Source: Bloomberg, Maybank FX Research Strong fundamentals also still underpin MYR-denominated assets and we continue to hold our year-end forecast at 3.20 for now. We continue to assess the developments out of the US with the FOMC statement and press conference this Thurs a significant factor in determining the USD/MYR level over the next 3-6 months. The dollar trajectory is expected to see strong upward pressure in our view. Currently our baseline for the dollar index is for end year at around 84.00, but there is very strong possibility it could end the year at around 86 or more especially after the Sep FOMC. Taking that into consideration, we would favour the upper end of the range seen at the end 4Q 2014 and towards 3.30 again in 1Q September
6 Disclaimers This report is for information purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or financial instruments referred to herein, or an offer or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any investment strategy. Investors should note that income from such securities or financial instruments, if any, may fluctuate and that each security s or financial instrument s price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities and/or financial instruments or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Malayan Banking Berhad and/or its affiliates and related corporations (collectively, Maybank ) and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by Maybank and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, no liability can be accepted for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Maybank and its officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities and/or financial instruments referred to herein and may further act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and/or financial instruments and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies whose securities are mentioned in this report. Any information or opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice. This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as anticipate, believe, estimate, intend, plan, expect, forecast, predict and project and statements that an event or result may, will, can, should, could or might occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward looking statements. Maybank expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. This report is prepared for the use of Maybank s clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of Maybank. Maybank accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Published by: Malayan Banking Berhad (Incorporated in Malaysia) Saktiandi Supaat Leslie Tang Fiona Lim Head, FX Research Senior FX Analyst Senior FX Analyst saktiandi@maybank.com.sg leslietang@maybank.com.sg Fionalim@maybank.com.sg (+65) (+65) (+65) September
CNY: Band Widening Does It Matter This Time?
Global FX Research & Strategy August 8, 2017 FX Flash CNY: Band Widening Does It Matter This Time? Does Band Widening Matter? There has been plenty speculation of band-widening since mid-jul. The editorials
More informationFX Insight. SGD: Playing Catch-Up To 3-Month SIBOR? MACRO FX RESEARCH Singapore. 23 Jun 2015
MACRO FX RESEARCH Singapore D 23 Jun 2015 FX Insight SGD: Playing Catch-Up To 3-Month SIBOR? The recent run-up in the 3-month SIBOR amid dollar strength as Fed prepares a lift-off in its fund rate while
More informationMalaysia Bond Flows Update
Malaysia Bond Flows Update Foreign net selloff lower in August, foreign buying to increase on improving fundamentals Economics Kenanga Investment Bank Berhad T: 603-2172 0880 OVERVIEW Foreign selloff moderated.
More informationFX Strategy. Is CNY Strength Over?
Global Economics & Markets Research Email: GlobalEcoMktResearch@uobgroup.com URL: www.uob.com.sg/research FX Strategy Is CNY Strength Over? Friday, 09 February 2018 Heng Koon How, CAIA Head of Markets
More informationEconomic Research KDN No.: PP14787/11/2012(030811)
wider Economic Research KDN No.: PP14787/11/2012(030811) Vol.: ER/009/2018 Capital Flows, Renminbi & the Ringgit Trend Economic Research Led By: Nor Zahidi Alias Chief Economist +603 2717 2936 zahidi@marc.com.my
More informationMonthly Outlook. June Summary
Monthly Outlook June 2015 Summary Yields of US Treasuries (USTs) rallied in May, with the 2-year and 10-year yields up 4 and 9 basis points (bps) respectively as compared to end-april levels. During the
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. July 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover
More informationMonthly Economic Insight
Monthly Economic Insight Prepared by : TMB Analytics Date: 22 February 2018 Executive Summary Synchronized global economic growth continued to brighten global economic outlook and global trade outlook.
More information2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , ,000-1,500-2,000-2,500. May-13. Jun-13. Apr-13. Feb-13. Mar-13
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 QUARTERLY REVIEW June 213 ECONOMIC REPORT The End of Euphoria Perception vs.
More information2011 Ringgit Bond Market Outlook
211 Ringgit Bond Market Outlook Wan Murezani Wan Mohamad Head Fixed Income Research 211 Investor Briefing 22 March 211 MALAYSIAN RATING CORPORATION BERHAD Clarity and Integrity www.marc.com.my Disclaimer
More informationFX Insights. Chart Of The Day USD/JPY: Next significant support at Friday, 29 April 2016
Quek Ser Leang Quek.SerLeang@uobgroup.com Lee Sue Ann Lee.SueAnn@uobgroup.com Global Economics & Markets Research Email: GlobalEcoMktResearch@uobgroup.com URL: www.uob.com.sg/research Chart Of The Day
More informationBNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook
7 March 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW March 2018 BNM MPC BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook Overnight Policy Rate maintained at 3.25%. In line with our expectation, overnight policy rate,
More informationEurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017
Eurozone Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 EUROZONE WATCH FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone: A slight upward revision to our GDP growth projections The recovery proceeded at a steady and solid pace in, resulting in an
More informationForeign Exchange Outlook. Making Progress
2013-14 Foreign Exchange Outlook Making Progress Camilla Sutton Chief Currency Strategist 2012 Forecast vs Performance SCOTIABANK FORECASTS VS ACTUAL RETURNS (2012) 8 4 % return 0 JPY CAD GBP AUD EUR -4-8
More informationMaybank IB. Understanding technical analysis. by Lee Cheng Hooi. 24 September Slide 1 of Maybank-IB
Maybank IB Understanding technical analysis 24 September 2011 by Lee Cheng Hooi Slide 1 of 40 Why technical analysis? 1) Market action discounts everything 2) Prices move in trends 3) History repeats itself
More informationYear in review Summary
Summary Canadian equities declined in 2018 and underperformed their global peers in Canadian dollar terms. U.S. equities also corrected as the risk of slowing pace of economic expansion, higher interest
More informationDaily FX Focus 3/10/2018
Important Risk Warning Daily FX Focus The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable
More informationEconomics Vietnam: stability is key
Economics Vietnam: stability is key DBS Group Research 27 June 2017 Concerns are rising that Vietnam may be aiming for faster growth at the expense of stability Rising domestic leverage and non-performing
More informationNorges Bank Review 24 September 2015
Norges Bank Review 24 September 2015 A 25bp rate cut and an easing bias Frank Jullum Chief Analyst fju@danskebank.dk www.danskebank.com/research Arne Lohmann Rasmussen Chief Analyst klom@danskebank.dk
More informationEurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch January 2018 Eurozone: Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a broadly stable
More informationMarket Insight Economy and Asset Classes December Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus
Market Insight Economy and Asset Classes December 2014 Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus 2 Equities Markets Feature In Citi analysts view, the expansion phase the US are enjoying
More informationThe State of Global Foreign Exchange Markets
The State of Global Foreign Exchange Markets Nick Bennenbroek The State Of Global FX Markets Nick Bennenbroek Head of Currency Strategy June 2015 Please see the disclosure appendix of this publication
More information26 Nov Executive Summary. Analyst Hillary Ho Li Ling
Analyst Hillary Ho Li Ling +6565311517 hillaryho@phillip.com.sg Executive Summary United States: We maintain our stance that QE2 will not make a huge difference to economic conditions. Growth will continue
More informationEUR-USD USD-JPY AUD-USD USD-SGD GBP-USD** XAU-USD** Spot Support
FX STRATEGY 7 January 03 The comments represented in this publication are made on the basis of a week outlook Contents EUR USD Pg USD JPY Pg 3 AUD USD Pg USD SGD Pg 5 GBP USD Pg 6 XAU USD Pg 7 Interest
More informationInvestment Strategy Note 24 Nov 2015
India: muddling through a difficult environment India remains a long term positive story based on its economic and demographic potential despite disappointments in the recent pace of recovery. The global
More informationFund Information. Fund Name. Fund Category. Fund Investment Objective. Fund Performance Benchmark. Fund Distribution Policy
Fund Information Fund Name (PBFI) Fund Category Bond Fund Investment Objective To provide a steady stream of annual income through its investment in private debt securities (bonds) and money market instruments.
More informationGold Daily. Gold Benchmark. Gold pares back early gains amidst positive US data. Gold Prices
- Gold Daily Brought to you by Phillip Futures Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Friday, 05 October 2018 Gold Benchmark Product Gold Prices Opening Price % Change from previous day OP XAU/USD ($) 1199.92
More informationGlobal Data Watch July 11 July 2016
Economic Research Global Data Watch 11-15 July 11 July 2016 The Week Ahead: BoE meeting and Chinese 2Q GDP UK: BoE to provide initial assessment of Brexit In its first monetary policy meeting (14 July)
More informationMalaysia Outlook. 100 days later, what should we expect after this? Thursday, August 23, Highlights
Malaysia Outlook 100 days later, what should we expect after this? Highlights Thursday, August 23, 2018 Manifesto promises may probably require a longer time period to be delivered Debt can risk weighing
More informationOUTLOOK 2014/2015. BMO Asset Management Inc.
OUTLOOK 2014/2015 BMO Asset Management Inc. We would like to take this opportunity to provide our capital markets outlook for the remainder of 2014 and the first half of 2015 and our recommended asset
More informationFX Insights. Chart Of The Day USD/CNH: Expect deep pull-back towards with lower odds for extension to Friday, 22 July 2016
Quek Ser Leang Quek.SerLeang@uobgroup.com Lee Sue Ann Lee.SueAnn@uobgroup.com Global Economics & Markets Research Email: GlobalEcoMktResearch@uobgroup.com URL: www.uob.com.sg/research Chart Of The Day
More informationAFFIN HWANG INCOME FOCUS FUND 3
AFFIN HWANG INCOME FOCUS FUND 3 Quarterly Report and Financial Statements As at 31 January 2019 Contents Page QUARTERLY REPORT... 2 STATEMENT OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME... 6 STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION...
More information1- Macroeconomic Scenario
PREVI NOVARTIS MONTHLY REPORT May 15, 2014 1- Macroeconomic Scenario The economic recovery has been consolidating in the United States and Europe. In emerging markets, the momentum is positive but growth
More informationEquity Market Outlook. May, 2016
Equity Market Outlook May, 2016 Global Economy Update Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 Global Central Bank Monetary Policies
More informationGlobal. Commodities Strategy. Too much too soon. 23 January 2018
Global Commodities Strategy 23 January 2018 Gold Too much too soon As detailed in our 2018 outlook, we entered the year with a constructive view on gold prices. Arguing that US inflation will continue
More informationASEAN FOCUS. US Fed Balance Sheet Normalization & Impact On ASEAN FX
US Fed Balance Sheet Normalization & Impact On ASEAN FX The FOMC released more details on its planned balance sheet reduction (BSR), still expecting to implement in a gradual manner this year but again
More informationThe ECB takes tiny steps towards policy normalization
Europe Insights Monthly update on European Markets June 27 The ECB takes tiny steps towards policy normalization Summary In the Spotlight. This month, we focus on the European Central Bank s (ECB) June
More informationGlobal Inflation. Set to surprise on the upside lifting long-dated inflation pricing. 27 October /
Global Inflation Set to surprise on the upside lifting long-dated inflation pricing Pernille Bomholdt Henneberg Mikael Olai Milhøj Senior Analyst, Euro area macro research Senior Analyst, US and UK macro
More informationPost QE2 The Dollar to rally? --- The verdict
Post QE2 The Dollar to rally? --- The verdict Suresh Kumar Ramanathan Regional Rates/FX Strategist suresh.ramanathan@cimb.com +6 03 2084 9775 June 2011 3 camps with 3 different views Gradual exit - Doves
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. July 12, Capital Markets Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review July 12, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report
More informationNZ FIXED INTEREST FUND JUNE 2018
NZ FIXED INTEREST FUND JUNE 2018 Contents 1. Economic and market recap 3 2. Performance and attribution 10 3. Attribution 17 4. Strategy 26 Appendix 1. Portfolio composition 30 1. ECONOMIC AND MARKET RECAP
More informationEmerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class
Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to
More informationEUR-USD USD-JPY AUD-USD USD-SGD. Spot Support
FX STRATEGY 4 May 0 The comments represented in this publication are made on the basis of a 4 week outlook Contents EUR USD Pg USD JPY Pg AUD USD Pg 4 USD SGD Pg 5 GBP USD Pg 6 Interest rate differentials
More informationEconWatch. Qualms of forex volatility; strong USD prior to policy tightening in the US. 21 August 2015
EconWatch 21 August 2015 Patricia Oh Swee Ling patricia-oh@ambankgroup.com 603-2036 2240 Qualms of forex volatility; strong USD prior to policy tightening in the US Investment Highlights Qualms of currency
More informationUS Federal Reserve: Feels like the first time
US Federal Reserve: Feels like the first time Economic research note 17 December 2015 The US Federal Reserve (the Fed) has, finally and unanimously, started the monetary policy normalisation process by
More informationAuction calendar 2019
Global Markets Research Fixed Income Auction calendar 2019 For 2019, there will be a total of 32 auctions (comprising of 16 MGS and 16 GII issuances) compared to the 33 auctions in 2018 (comprising 15
More informationBreakdown of Unitholdings of PGF as at 31 January 2018
Fund Information Fund Name Public Growth Fund () Fund Category Equity Fund Investment Objective To achieve long-term capital appreciation with income considered incidental. Fund Performance Benchmark The
More informationECB preview Dovish and slightly worried
Investment Research General Market Conditions 27 August 2015 ECB preview Dovish and slightly worried Main focus on the drop in 5Y5Y inflation expectations that are again far below the ECB s 2%-target The
More informationASSET ALLOCATION FLASH
FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS 25 June 2018 ASSET ALLOCATION FLASH BNPP AM Multi Asset, Quantitative and Solutions (MAQS) MID-YEAR REVERSALS Asset allocation overview: Christophe MOULIN Head of Multi Asset,
More informationAUD-EUR OUTLOOK Risk Appetite is the Key Wednesday, 25 January 2012 The Australian dollar has recently soared to record highs against the euro, reflecting heightened concerns about European sovereign risk,
More informationMARKET OUTLOOK January 2018
MARKET OUTLOOK January 2018 1.0 Fixed Income Fixed Income Outlook & Investment Strategy Given that it was the start of the new trading year, trading volume in the MGS market rebounded sharply in January
More informationRBI Monetary Policy Update Status Quo on Rates
RBI Monetary Policy Update Status Quo on Rates After the cutting the rate by 25 bps in August policy, the RBI kept the key policy rate unchanged at 6% and maintained the neutral stance of monetary policy
More informationAustralian Dollar Outlook
Tuesday, 31 March 015 Australian Dollar Outlook Still Under Pressure We have revised our AUD forecasts for this year down slightly to reflect developments over recent months. We now expect the AUD to end
More informationJapan: The impact of QQE2
JP: The impact of QQE2 7 November 214 Economics Japan: The impact of QQE2 DBS Group Research 7 November 214 The BOJ will expand its quantitative and qualitative (QQE) program The yen has fallen and the
More informationMalaysia s Exports Performance Steadied in April Despite Sluggish Global Trade
6 June 2016 MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW May 2016 Malaysia s Exports Performance Steadied in April Despite Sluggish Global Trade Exports were up by 1.6%yoy in April, higher than consensus. This was largely
More informationIndonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges
Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. April 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch April 2018 Eurozone: solid growth and broadly unchanged projections, with protectionist risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch / 2 Confidence has weakened in 1Q18 since the
More informationIndonesia chart book Consumption trumps weak trade
Economics Indonesia chart book Consumption trumps weak trade Group Research 7 August 2018 Radhika Rao Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee +65 68785281 violetleeyh@dbs.com 2Q GDP
More informationDaily FX Focus 11/7/2017
Important Risk Disclosure Daily FX Focus 11/7/217 Investment involves risk. It is important to note that the capital value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and may become
More informationUS Federal Reserve: Feels like the first time
US Federal Reserve: Feels like the first time Economic research note December 17, 2015 The US Federal Reserve (the Fed) has, finally and unanimously, started the monetary policy normalization process by
More informationMedium Risk Portfolio QUANTUM FUNDS PORTFOLIO REVIEW NOVEMBER DECEMBER 2014 OBJECTIVE AND STRATEGY COMPOSITION OF PORTFOLIO QUANTUM FUNDS
QUANTUM FUNDS ($500 INVESTMENT) Medium Risk Portfolio QUANTUM FUNDS PORTFOLIO REVIEW NOVEMBER OBJECTIVE AND STRATEGY The fund pursues the objective of long-term total returns combined with capital preservation.
More informationWeekly Market Commentary
LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Market Commentary November 18, 2014 Emerging Markets Opportunity Still Emerging Burt White Chief Investment Officer LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist
More informationEurozone Economic Watch
BBVA Research - Global Economic Watch December 2018 / 1 Eurozone Economic Watch December 2018 Eurozone GDP growth still slows gradually, but high uncertainty could take its toll GDP growth could grow by
More informationSublime. Key Take Away GDP Numbers Detail 1Q16 4Q15 1Q15 Real GDP (y-o-y) Real GDP (q-o-q) Domestic Demand Growth
M&A Securities Economic Report: Malaysian 1Q16 GDP PP14767/09/2012(030761) Sublime Friday, May 13, 2016 Key Take Away GDP Numbers Detail 1Q16 4Q15 1Q15 Real GDP (y-o-y) 4.2 4.5 5.7 Real GDP (q-o-q) 1.0
More informationRisk Insight. Does a flattening yield curve signal pain for the dollar? What are the chances... Volume 9, Issue 10 6 th March 2017.
Inside this issue Big Picture... 1-2 GBPUSD... 3 GBPEUR... 4 Risk Insight Volume 9, Issue 10 6 th March 2017 EURUSD... 5 USDCAD... 6 Economic Data and Market Indicators... 7 Appendix... 8 Does a flattening
More informationJapanese Stock Market Outlook. SMAM monthly comments & views - October
Japanese Stock Market Outlook SMAM monthly comments & views - October 2015 - Executive summary Japanese Economy Japanese economy was dragged by stalling private consumption and exports though extremely
More informationImproved Macroeconomic Conditions Boost Consumer Sentiment to Its Highest Level in 3½-Year
ECONOMIC REPORT Business & Consumer Confidence 17 April 2018 Improved Macroeconomic Conditions Boost Consumer Sentiment to Its Highest Level in 3½-Year MIER s CSI rebounded to 3.5-year high. Underpin by
More informationAsset Allocation Monthly
For professional investors Asset Allocation Monthly December 2015 Joost van Leenders, CFA, Chief economist, Multi Asset Solutions joost.vanleenders@bnpparibas.com +31 20 527 5126 SUMMARY INVESTMENT CLIMATE
More informationUS Q3 GDP acceleration due to inventory build but final domestic demand remains weak
ISSN: 1791 35 35 November 26, 2013 Olga Kosma Economic Analyst okosma@eurobank.gr US Q3 GDP acceleration due to inventory build but final domestic demand remains weak Real GDP accelerated to 2.8% q-o-q
More informationEconomics IDR towards further resilience
towards further resilience Sep Economics towards further resilience DBS Group Research September The Indonesian rupiah has recovered from its Sep bottom and moved back into the lower half of its ascending
More informationFX Strategy. It s All About Yield Spreads (Or Not?)
Global Economics & Markets Research Email: GlobalEcoMktResearch@uobgroup.com URL: www.uob.com.sg/research FX Strategy It s All About Yield Spreads (Or Not?) Tuesday, 06 March 2018 Heng Koon How, CAIA Head
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. November 2017
Eurozone Economic Watch November 2017 Eurozone: improved outlook, still subdued inflation Our MICA-BBVA model for growth estimates for the moment a quarterly GDP figure of around -0.7% in, after % QoQ
More informationMORNING COFFEE. 4-September-2017
4-September-2017 FROM CEO'S DESK The USD had weakened in an immediate reaction post the release of weak US August NFP print. Wage growth too continued to disappoint. Euro rallied to 1.1975 but soon retraced
More informationFund Information. Fund Name. Fund Category. Fund Investment Objective. Fund Performance Benchmark. Fund Distribution Policy
Fund Information Fund Name (PCSF) Fund Category Equity Fund Investment Objective To achieve capital growth over the medium to long-term period by investing in a portfolio of investments in the greater
More informationAustralia: Economic and Financial Outlook
Australia: Economic and Financial Outlook Greg Noonan Head of Business Markets Queensland & Agribusiness 5 June 2015 Australian economy and financial markets continue to be impacted by a large number of
More informationWhat s Next for the USD & Vietnam
VNINDEX Economist s Note June 1, 2018 By Michael Kokalari, CFA Chief Economist What s Next for the USD & Vietnam As the chart below illustrates, the recent steep correction in the VN-Index (in red) has
More informationAsia Watch. The US giveth, the US taketh away. Group Economics Emerging Markets Research. Group Economics: Enabling smart decisions.
Asia Watch Group Economics Emerging Markets Research 1 June 18 Arjen van Dijkhuizen Senior Economist Tel: +31 68 85 arjen.van.dijkhuizen@nl.abnamro.com The US giveth, the US taketh away Growth momentum
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy June 2009
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy June 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationDevelopments in Emerging East Asia Bond Markets
Developments in Emerging East Asia Bond Markets Donghyun Park, Principal Economist Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, Asian Development Bank Overview The outlook for economic growth
More informationDAILY FX OUTLOOK. Wednesday, March 28, Asian FX. FX Themes/Strategy/Trading Ideas
DAILY FX OUTLOOK FX Themes/Strategy/Trading Ideas Wednesday, March 28, 218 Amid cited quarter/month-end flows and with risk aversion re-emerging (UST curve bull-flattened from the back-end), the USD climbed
More informationEUR-USD USD-JPY AUD-USD USD-SGD GBP-USD** XAU-USD** Spot Support
FX STRATEGY 0 December 0 The comments represented in this publication are made on the basis of a week outlook Contents EUR USD Pg USD JPY Pg AUD USD Pg USD SGD Pg 5 GBP USD Pg 6 XAU USD Pg 7 Interest rate
More informationFive key investment themes for 2015
Five key investment themes for 2015 Exiting QE in the US was always going to be a path of uncertainty for central bankers, globally and for markets and investors. There is simply no exact precedent for
More information.Mean KBank S Capital Markets Perspectives
.Mean KBank S Capital Markets Perspectives How important is NEER to export growth? Strategies on Macro / FX/ Rates 1 April 2016 Non-conventional policies have resulted in non-normal consequences Currency
More informationMacro Briefing A monthly review of the economy and markets January 2014
Macro Briefing A monthly review of the economy and markets January 1 Stock Markets Performance January 1 Asia ex Europe US Returns (%) - - -3 - -1 3 Months Asia ex Europe US Returns (%) - - -3 - -1 1 3
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. May 8, The Finance Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review May 8, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report Key
More informationIndonesia Watch. Plenty of risks, but real crisis not likely. Group Economics Emerging Markets Research. Group Economics: Enabling smart decisions
Indonesia Watch Group Economics Emerging Markets Research 2 August 218 Arjen van Dijkhuizen Senior Economist Tel: +31 2 628 852 arjen.van.dijkhuizen@nl.abnamro.com Plenty of risks, but real crisis not
More informationFX Strategy USD/JPY is back in business - we target 114
Investment Research 11 September 2014 FX Strategy USD/JPY is back in business - we target 114 USD/JPY has recently broken the early 2014 high of 105.50 and is now back to 2008 levels. The upside break
More informationQNB Finansbank Q3 17 Earnings Presentation. October 2017
QNB Finansbank Earnings Presentation October 2017 Banking sector growth continued in thanks to accommodative policy measures Macro Dynamics Banking Sector Dynamics 13 12 11 CBRT Rates Late liquidity O/N
More informationWeekly FX Insight. Weekly FX Insight. Dec 30, 2013 with data as of Dec 27. Citibank Wealth Management. FX & Eco. Figures Forecast
Citibank Wealth Management Weekly FX Insight Weekly FX Insight Dec 30, 2013 with data as of Dec 27 Market Review & Focus FX Analysis Weekly FX Recap 01 GBP/USD 03 USD/JPY 04 Weekly FX Focus 02 NZD/USD
More informationForex and Interest Rate Outlook 26th August 2015
Forex and Interest Rate Outlook 26th August 2015 Moderate recovery continues in advanced economies, but a weakening of activity in emerging economies is adding to global deflationary pressures Further
More informationEconomic Outlook In the Shoes of an FOMC Member
Economic Outlook In the Shoes of an FOMC Member This material must be read in conjunction with the disclosure statement. 9 April 2018 PRESENTED BY: MARKUS SCHOMER Chief Economist PineBridge Investments
More informationAsianBondsOnline WEEKLY DEBT HIGHLIGHTS
AsianBondsOnline WEEKLY 9 January 7 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets Consumer price inflation in Indonesia eased to.% year-on-year (y-o-y) in December from.6% y-o-y
More informationECONOMIC UPDATE. UK focus - a year of slower growth?
ECONOMIC UPDATE UK focus - a year of slower growth? Professor Trevor Williams, University of Derby & Chair of the IEA s Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) MAY 2016 UK RECOVERY STEADY THOUGH NOT SPECTACULAR
More informationRisk Insight. The Central Bank Tightening Party: Who Will Be Next To Join? What are the chances... Volume 8, Issue th July 2017.
Inside this issue Big Picture... 1-2 GBPUSD... 3 GBPEUR... 4 Risk Insight Volume 8, Issue 31 24 th July 2017 EURUSD... 5 USDCAD... 6 Economic Data and Market Indicators... 7 Appendix... 8 The Central Bank
More informationAttractive fundamentals in the face of ongoing market volatility
Canada Outlook October 2018 Attractive fundamentals in the face of ongoing market volatility HSBC outlook Our growth outlook is tempered by concerns about politics, trade tensions and some emerging markets
More informationThe European Economy. Simon Barry Chief Economist Republic of Ireland. December 2012
The European Economy Simon Barry Chief Economist Republic of Ireland December 212 Euro area economy now back in recession as GDP contracts in 3 of the past 4 quarters Euro Area Real GDP Growth, % 1.5 1..5.
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy February 2017 Global Stock Market Rally likely to Continue with Solid Q4 Earnings & Stronger 2017 Earnings, ECB
More informationGDP Forecast Revised Due to Weak Global Outlook
5 July 2016 MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW Jun 2016 GDP Forecast Revised Due to Weak Global Outlook Exports were down by 0.9%yoy in May, while trade balance moderated to RM3.2 billion. This was largely due to
More informationForex and Interest Rate Outlook AIB Treasury Economic Research Unit
Forex and Interest Rate Outlook 22nd November 2017 Global economic recovery gathering momentum, but inflation remains very subdued Central banks patient on policy tightening. Rates rise at a slow pace
More informationEUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017
EUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017 Key messages: some changes for the better Improving confidence in across the board shows the resilience of the eurozone to the various potentially disturbing political
More information