The Future of NAFTA. Taking Action Under Uncertainty. Webinar. Jaime Serra Beatriz Leycegui. Mexico City, Mexico November 25, 2016

Transcription

1 The Future of NAFTA Taking Action Under Uncertainty Webinar Jaime Serra Beatriz Leycegui Mexico City, Mexico November 25, 2016

2 I. US President-Elect Announced Measures and Powers to Execute Them

3 Trump s Announced Trade Measures Relevant Sources 1. 7 point plan to Rebuild the American Economy by Fighting for Free Trade Speech in Monessen, PA- June 28, Donald Trump s Contract with the American Voter- 100-day action plan Signed in Gettysburg, PA- October 22, Trump s Transition Memo- for discussion purposes CNN leak, November 15, A Message from President-Elect Donald J. Trump YouTube- November 21,

4 Source: 1 7 point plan to Rebuild the American Economy by Fighting for Free Trade Trump s Announced Measures Trade policies that could impact Mexico (first 200 days) 1. Renegotiate or withdraw from NAFTA. (order study to the Department of Commerce and the International Trade Commission). 1,2,3 2. Withdraw from the TPP. 1,2,3,4 3. Introduce the End of Offshoring Act Identify foreign trading abuses and use every tool under American and international law to end them. 1,2,3,4 5. Remove more than 2 million criminal illegal immigrants from the country Investigate abuses of visa programs. 4 2 Donald Trump s Contract with the American Voter, 3 Trump s transition Memo 4 A Message from President-Elect Donald J. Trump You Tube 4

5 Source: Could a President Trump Shackle Imports? Gary Clyde Hufbauer, September 2016 and Perspectives on Post-ElectionUS Trade Policy: Mexico & Trump Gary Clyde Hufbauer, November 16, 2016 President s Powers under FTA s and Domestic Laws that Could Impact Trade with Mexico NAFTA Withdrawal- Art Power to withdraw within 6 month notice. Amendments- Art Need to be approved in accordance with the applicable legal procedures of each Party. Domestic Laws Trade Expansion Act of 1962, Section 232(b) (national security). Trade Act of 1974, Section 122 (balance of payments) and 301 (unjustifiable, unreasonable or discriminatory practices). Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917 (during time of war). International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (national emergency). 5

6 II. The North American Economic Region

7 Source: SAI Law and Economics with information from: 2) Comtrade, 2015, 3) WTO, 2015, 4) WTO, World Trade Report, 2011-The WTO and Preferential Trade Agreements: From coexistence to coherence, 2011, 5) WTO, 2016 Regionalism Current Regional Trade Agreements ( )

8 Source: SAI Law & Economics with data from INEGI, Bank of Mexico, Ministry of Economy (SE), US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Statistics Canada Trade and Investment Flows Index of trade and foreign direct investment in North America 1 (index, 1988=100, ) 2,500 2,000 NAFTA China's entry to WTO 9/11 Terrorist attack Lehman Brothers Crisis 1,500 1, / The index of integration of Trade and Foreign Direct Investment in North America and the corresponding sub-indices comply with the following properties: existence, identity, invertibility, circularity, proportionality, and homogeneity.

9 Source: Source: SAI Law & Economics with data from INEGI. Macroeconomic convergence 9

10 Mar-80 Dec-81 Sep-83 Jun-85 Mar-87 Dec-88 Sep-90 Jun-92 Mar-94 Dec-95 Sep-97 Jun-99 Mar-01 Dec-02 Sep-04 Jun-06 Mar-08 Dec-09 Sep-11 Jun-13 Mar-15 Source: SAI Law & Economics with information from INEGI and OECD. Economic cycle coordination Annual growth of industrial production (quarterly moving average, January August 2016) Corr Corr US Mexico

11 Source: SAI Law and Economics with data from Koopman et al. (2010). Made in North America When Mexico exports, US exports 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 40% United States content in US imports by country (percentage, 2004) 25% 32% Mexico Canada Weighted average (Mex- Can) WE ARE ON THE SAME SIDE OF THE TABLE 4% China 11

12 Source: KPMG, 2011 Mexico s contribution to US profits Industry performance by country and range Industry Chin India Mexic Cana USA Automotive Electronics Precision manufacturing Telecommunications Aerospace Agri-Food Profitability after tax 24.8% 25.6% 22.7% 7.9% 5.6% Rank Profitability after tax 33.6% 35.0% 31.4% 25.9% 13.6% Rank Profitability after tax 22.5% 22.6% 19.3% 6.2% 3.5% Rank Profitability after tax 31.4% 32.7% 29.0% 9.7% 6.5% Rank Profitability after tax 30.8% 32.5% 28.1% 10.1% 7.9% Rank Profitability after tax 31.7% 34.7% 26.8% 10.7% 9.0% Rank

13 Source: : Khanna, P. (2016). Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization. Random House Publishing Group. Connectivity From NAFTA to a North American Union Open Skies August 21,

14 III. Scenarios

15 Source: : Khanna, P. (2016). Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization. Random House Publishing Group. Scenarios NAFTA s future Can-Mex-US Legislative powers Can-Mex-US Executive powers. Approve Modified NAFTA Agree Executive powers Modernization / Renegotiation Disagree Disapprove Executive powers NAFTA unchanged NAFTA unchanged Withdrawal Withdrawal 15

16 Source: : Khanna, P. (2016). Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization. Random House Publishing Group. Scenarios NAFTA s future Canada-Mexico Bilateral NAFTA US Withdrawal Canada-US Canada-US FTA 1989 New Bilateral FTA Only WTO Mexico-US New Bilateral FTA Only WTO 16

17 Renegotiation Potential modification of the North American Ecosystem 1. Trade in goods Tariffs Import and export restrictions Customs user fees Rules of origin 2. Investment 3. Services 4. Intellectual property 5. Government procurement 6. Energy and Basic Petrochemicals 7. Dispute Settlement- Antidumping and countervailing duties 8. Emergency Action- Safeguards 17

18 Modernization- Side Agreements Potential modification of the North American Ecosystem 1. Labor 2. Environment 3. Regulatory coherence and cooperation (standards) 4. Trade facilitation 5. SMEs 6. E-commerce 7. State owned enterprises 8. Anti-Corruption Treaty 9. Agreement on Currency Manipulation 10.Compliance Agreement 18

19 IV. Preparing and Taking Action Under Uncertainty

20 SAI s Tailor-Made Strategy for Companies Assessment of vulnerabilities 1. Legal analysis Revision of the effects if NAFTA s most relevant provisions are amended or derogated. 2. Economic and financial impacts Trade Investment Global value chains GDP, exchange-rate and inflation Other variables 3. Plan of action Measures to counteract the effects or impacts 20

21 Derechos Reservados 2016 Edificio Plaza Reforma Prol. Paseo de la Reforma # B Santa Fe Peña Blanca, México, D.F Tel. (55) Fax: (55)

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