Why Trade Deficits Are Not Necessarily a Bad Thing
|
|
- Kelly Chandler
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Why Trade Deficits Are Not Necessarily a Bad Thing May 23, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Why Trade Deficits Are Not Always a Bad Thing 2. Trade Deficits Are Common Among Developed Nations 3. Why the US Dollar is Rising & Can It Continue? Overview Today, I want to disagree with a widely-held view by the mainstream media and President Trump that trade deficits are always a bad thing. I also want to disagree with the idea that trade deficits with the US mean that our trading partners are taking advantage of us. The fact is, most high-consuming developed nations run trade deficits with other countries. The US has the highest trade deficit in the world, and this has been true every year for decades. There are specific reasons for this, as I will explain below, and it s not necessarily a bad thing. In some ways, it s a good thing. Following that discussion, we ll take a look at why the US dollar has been rising of late, despite the widespread consensus that the greenback will continue to move lower and lower. Markets often don t conform to the consensus view, and the latest rally in the dollar is one such example. Why Trade Deficits Are Not Always a Bad Thing The Trump administration and officials from Canada and Mexico continue meetings to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). There is much about the trade agreement that should be modernized, such as updated rules for e-commerce and stronger intellectual property protections. The president also hopes to maintain existing duty-free market access for agricultural goods, as it is important for industries in many states, including my home state of Texas. However, the administration has also emphasized its desire to reduce the trade deficits the degree to which the United States imports more than it exports in the NAFTA negotiations. This is rooted in the belief that when the United States buys more from foreign countries than they buy from us, jobs Page 1, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
2 increase in those countries and decrease here at home. This is a faulty assumption but one that has unfortunately found its way into modern political dialogue and the mainstream media. Yet trade deficits are not always bad for US workers and consumers, and they should not remain the focus in NAFTA renegotiations. Here s why. For starters, a powerful economy such as ours often runs a trade deficit because of the immense buying power of its people. Mexico s average net per-capita income is roughly $13,000 per family, while the average US household brings in more than $59,000 each year, according to the Census Bureau. Thus, Americans have a far greater capacity to buy goods than do consumers in Mexico and Canada. It should come as no surprise that we do exactly that. In 2017, our trade deficit with Mexico was apprx. $71 billion, according to the Census Bureau (see chart below). Our trade deficit with Canada was $17.5 billion last year. If the United States and Mexico were the only countries in the world, and both countries traded openly with each other, American consumers would still benefit from Mexican imports in order to satisfy our buying power and immense market demand. Conversely, Mexico would still import goods from the United States. Its citizens, however, simply cannot afford to buy things at the same rate and quantity that Americans do from Mexico. The same is true with Canada. If Mexicans suddenly became wealthier, they would likely start buying more US products. That is why one of the best things that can happen to our economy is for other nations economies to grow. When they grow, they buy more American products, and we grow even more. Trade Deficits Are Common Among Developed Nations The fact is that trade deficits are common for many countries with relatively high-consumption populations. Here are the countries that we run the largest trade deficits with. Page 2, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
3 As the United States purchases more goods from Mexico, Mexican workers become wealthier, which means they will be able to purchase more goods from the United States. A growing economy in Mexico also means that Mexican workers have less reason to immigrate illegally to the United States. And while US consumers and businesses are buying more cheap goods from Mexico, it gives us greater purchasing power to buy more things and reinvest in our own economy, thus lifting our standard of living. Simply put, free and fair trade is a win-win scenario. Foreign investment also tilts the trade-balance calculation. Because we have the world s largest economy and the strongest currency, more money comes into the United States than goes out. This investment surplus adds to our trade deficit, even though this foreign cash stimulus is a positive for our economy. When a Canadian company decides to invest in a US-based company, that also increases our trade deficit. Similarly, when the Mexican government buys US Treasury bonds (as most of the world does), the likelihood of an American trade deficit increases. Yet investments such as these are indicative of a strong economy. It should be an encouraging sign that we are by far the world s largest receiver of foreign direct investment. Our trade deficit means, in part, that US companies are considered to be a better investment than companies in other countries. More investment in American businesses means more jobs and higher wages for American workers. It is my hope that as the Trump administration continues reviewing past and future trade agreements, we can work together toward building a better future for the American middle class. We have real problems with trade, such as closed markets, foreign subsidies and stolen intellectual property. But setting up additional barriers and taxes on imports to reduce the trade deficit should not be the Page 3, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
4 focus of our trade policy. The United States already benefits from trade and, when there is free and open competition, American workers and consumers always win. It is also my hope that President Trump comes to understand that trade deficits are not always a bad thing and should not be the driver of the NAFTA renegotiations. Why the US Dollar is Rising & Can It Continue? Despite a strong consensus that the US dollar will continue to move lower this year, the greenback has rallied strongly in recent weeks. While it s still too early to say the downtrend is over, investors and currency traders are wondering if something significant has changed. The latest strength in the dollar is likely the result of several factors. First, US interest rates have risen this year and remain well above rates in Europe and Japan. This has resulted in more international capital flowing into the US dollar. Second, the Fed appears firm in its plans to increase short-term rates at least two more times this year and continue to reduce its massive balance sheet at an increasing rate this year and next and possibly beyond. There is increasing speculation that the FOMC could raise the Fed Funds rate three more times this year, especially if the economy reaches 3% growth in the current quarter. Higher rates are good for the dollar. Third, data on US dollar futures markets around the world show there is a very large speculative short position in the dollar. This is not surprising given the global consensus that the US dollar would move lower this year and perhaps beyond. So, it s no surprise that speculators would have large short dollar positions. As the dollar has strengthened recently, some of these shorts have elected to cover their positions. To exit a short position means you have to buy the dollar to liquidate the trade. This buying helps push the greenback higher and could result in a lot more short-covering which has the potential to push the dollar even higher still. Page 4, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
5 As I said at the beginning of this section, it is too early to conclude that the downtrend in the US dollar has reversed. Yet for the reasons cited above, the current rally in the dollar could continue. And if the holders of the shorts decide to exit their positions in a big way, the rally could be a lot larger than most traders currently expect. Stay tuned. All the best, Gary D. Halbert Forecasts & Trends E-Letter is published by Halbert Wealth Management, Inc. Gary D. Halbert is the president and CEO of Halbert Wealth Management, Inc. and is the editor of this publication. Information contained herein is taken from sources believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed as to its accuracy. Opinions and recommendations herein generally reflect the judgement of Gary D. Halbert (or another named author) and may change at any time without written notice. Market opinions contained herein are intended as general observations and are not intended as specific investment advice. Readers are urged to check with their investment counselors before making any investment decisions. This electronic newsletter does not constitute an offer of sale of any securities. Gary D. Halbert, Halbert Wealth Management, Inc., and its affiliated companies, its officers, directors and/or employees may or may not have investments in markets or programs mentioned herein. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Reprinting for family or friends is allowed with proper credit. However, republishing (written or electronically) in its entirety or through the use of extensive quotes is prohibited without prior written consent. Halbert Wealth Management Page 5, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
Odds Rise For "Inverted Yield Curve" & New Recession
Odds Rise For "Inverted Yield Curve" & New Recession June 14, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Policy Committee Set to Hike Fed Funds Rate Tomorrow 2. Yield Curve Flattening Could It
More informationEconomy Is Weaker Than It Seems & Scary Facts On National Debt
Economy Is Weaker Than It Seems & Scary Facts On National Debt November 9, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. US Unemployment Rate Dropped to 4.9% in October 2. Why the US Economy is
More informationSavings Rate Lowest In A Decade, Credit Card Balances Soar
Savings Rate Lowest In A Decade, Credit Card Balances Soar January 24, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. US National Savings Rate Falls to 2.9%, Decade Low 2. Median Savings Rates by
More informationThe Worst Week In A Decade For US Stocks
The Worst Week In A Decade For US Stocks February 15, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. The Worst Week For US Stock Markets Since 2008 2. Confluence of Negative Factors Became Important
More informationU.S. Debt Tops $20 Trillion - Stocks Soar To Record Highs
U.S. Debt Tops $20 Trillion - Stocks Soar To Record Highs September 20, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. National Debt Tops $20 Trillion, Equal to 107% of GDP 2. Debt Held by the Public
More informationConsumer Confidence Highest Since Before Great Recession
Consumer Confidence Highest Since Before Great Recession December 14, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Consumer Confidence Soars to Highest Since 2008 2. My Theory on Why Consumer Confidence
More informationUS "Debt Held by the Public" vs. Total National Debt
US "Debt Held by the Public" vs. Total National Debt November 13, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Overview US Debt at Record High $21.7 Trillion 2. Debt Held by the
More informationTrade Deficit Hits New High, Trump Tariffs Are Bad
Trade Deficit Hits New High, Trump Tariffs Are Bad March 13, 2019 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. US Trade Deficit Hit Record $891 Billion in 2018 2. Trump s Trade Tariffs
More information44% of US Households Don't Pay Any Federal Income Tax
44% of US Households Don't Pay Any Federal Income Tax April 25, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. 44% of Households Don t Pay Any Federal Income Tax 2. Lion s Share of Federal Income
More informationWhy We Don't Want A Trade War With China
Why We Don't Want A Trade War With China July 18, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Trade War With China Benefits No One 2. Why the US-China Trade Deficit Will Likely Fix Itself 3. China
More informationSub-3% GDP Growth: A Lost Decade For The US Economy
Sub-3% GDP Growth: A Lost Decade For The US Economy February 3, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. 4Q GDP Up Only 0.7% Economy Started and Ended Weak 2. A Controversy Over
More informationEconomy Ends 2016 Strongly, Liberals Gaining On Conservatives
Economy Ends 2016 Strongly, Liberals Gaining On Conservatives January 11, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. US Consumer Spending Hit Nine-Year High in December 2. US Economic Confidence
More informationExploding Healthcare Costs Are Out Of Control
Exploding Healthcare Costs Are Out Of Control February 10, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Unemployment Rate Fell to 4.9% But New Jobs Disappointed 2. Obamacare s Exploding
More informationUS National Debt Spiraling Out of Control, New Record
US National Debt Spiraling Out of Control, New Record May 9, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Treasury Borrowing Hit Record $488 Billion in 1Q 2. Why Deficits Could be Worse Than the
More informationThe US Economy Disappointed In The Fourth Quarter
The US Economy Disappointed In The Fourth Quarter January 31, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Advance GDP Report Missed Expectations at Only 2.6% 2. US Economic Strength Lifts Other
More informationFederal Spending to Top a Record $4 Trillion in FY2017
Federal Spending to Top a Record $4 Trillion in FY2017 July 11, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. June Unemployment Report Was Better Than Expected 2. Federal Spending to Blow Through
More informationThe Economy: Growth Has Been Weak But Long-Lasting
The Economy: Growth Has Been Weak But Long-Lasting October 19, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Why This Economic Recovery Has Been So Disappointing 2. The Fourth Longest Economic Expansion
More informationSurprising Jobs Report Suggests Economy Remains Strong
Surprising Jobs Report Suggests Economy Remains Strong January 9, 2019 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Surprising 312,000 New Jobs Created in December 2. Stocks Soar on Fed
More informationAverage Household Debt: $132,000 - Not Counting Mortgage
Average Household Debt: $132,000 - Not Counting Mortgage August 31, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Fed Chair Janet Yellen Ready to Raise Interest Rates... Maybe 2. Yellen s #2 Man
More informationFed Plans To Trim Its Massive $4.5 Trillion Balance Sheet
Fed Plans To Trim Its Massive $4.5 Trillion Balance Sheet June 21, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Fed to Reduce Massive $4.5 Trillion Balance Sheet Implications 2. How the Fed Got
More informationThe National Debt Tops $19 Trillion - 106% Of GDP
The National Debt Tops $19 Trillion - 106% Of GDP March 10, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Another Strong Jobs Report, But Not All Good News 2. US National Debt Topped
More informationRecord Household Debt, Student Loan Delinquencies Spike
IN THIS ISSUE: Record Household Debt, Student Loan Delinquencies Spike November 28, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Household Debt Hit a New Record High in the 3Q 2. Student Loan Delinquencies
More informationThe Coming Home Equity Line of Credit Crisis
The Coming Home Equity Line of Credit Crisis March 2, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Will HELOCs Trigger the Next Financial Crisis? 2. Millions of HELOCs to Reset in
More informationStock Markets Turn Much More Volatile & Weak
Stock Markets Turn Much More Volatile & Weak November 21, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Stock Markets Shift Into A More Volatile Gear 2. Most Cited Reasons For the Current Market
More informationChina Not To Overtake US Economy Until 2032
China Not To Overtake US Economy Until 2032 January 3, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Weal Management 1. Report: China s Economy Will Not Overtake US Until 2032 2. Cheaper Energy & Technology to Boost
More informationEconomists Expect Big Jump In 2Q GDP - We'll See May 16, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management
Economists Expect Big Jump In 2Q GDP - We'll See May 16, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management Page 1, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved. IN THIS ISSUE: 1. First Trust Predicts
More informationMore & More Americans Having to Work Past Age 70
More & More Americans Having to Work Past Age 70 July 18, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Almost One-Fifth of Americans Are Working Past Age 70 2. Seniors, There s No Guarantee of
More informationGDP Stunner: 2Q Growth Was Less Than Half of Forecast August 3, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management
GDP Stunner: 2Q Growth Was Less Than Half of Forecast August 3, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management Page 1, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved. 1. GDP Grew a Disappointing
More informationU.S. Debt To Hit $20 Trillion, Poverty Remains Rampant
U.S. Debt To Hit $20 Trillion, Poverty Remains Rampant November 11, 2015 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE 1. October Unemployment Rate Plunges to 7-Year Low 2. $20 Trillion Man:
More informationNational Debt No Problem - We Owe It To Ourselves - WRONG!
National Debt No Problem - We Owe It To Ourselves - WRONG! June 20, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Over 40 Years of Writing This Newsletter 2. National Debt Not a Problem We Owe It
More informationU.S. Moves Back To #1 In Global Competitiveness Ranking
U.S. Moves Back To #1 In Global Competitiveness Ranking June 6, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. First Quarter GDP Growth Slowed to 2.2% Annual Rate 2. Can the US Economy Really Grow
More informationImagine A World Without Cash - A "Cashless Society"
Imagine A World Without Cash - A "Cashless Society" August 1, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. VISA Offers Select Retailers $10,000 to Stop Taking Cash 2. More Details on the War On
More informationIs China Dumping U.S. Dollars? Answer: Yes And No
Is China Dumping U.S. Dollars? Answer: Yes And No January 25, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. China Continues to Sell US Treasuries at a Record Pace 2. Significant Decline in China
More informationCan Trump's Economic Plan Jump-Start GDP Growth?
Can Trump's Economic Plan Jump-Start GDP Growth? March 1, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. President Trump s Economic Plan Promises 3-4% GDP Growth 2. Manufacturing Has the Best Job-Multiplier
More informationWill The Fed Raise Rates Tomorrow? Probably Not
Will The Fed Raise Rates Tomorrow? Probably Not March 16, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Fed in a Tough Spot as Inflation Ticks Up to 2.2% 2. The Fed Has a Real Dilemma
More informationAmerica's Middle Class is Making a Strong Comeback
America's Middle Class is Making a Strong Comeback September 6, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Harvey to be Largest Natural Disaster in US History 2. 80% of Houston Homes Have No
More informationTHE U.S. PAPER INDUSTRY IN AN EVOLVING TRADE AGENDA RISI NORTH AMERICAN CONFERENCE OCTOBER 18, 2017
THE U.S. PAPER INDUSTRY IN AN EVOLVING TRADE AGENDA RISI NORTH AMERICAN CONFERENCE OCTOBER 18, 2017 Jacob Handelsman Senior Director, International Trade American Forest & Paper Association U.S. Exports
More informationNATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
May 218 NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist THE PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP The Tower at PNC
More informationThe Global Marketplace. International Trade
The Global Marketplace International Trade Exports are goods and services that one country sells to another country. Imports are goods and services that one country buys from another country. Trade in
More informationUnit 4 Study Guide: Macroeconomics & International Economics
Name: Unit 4 Study Guide: Macroeconomics & International Economics Standards: SSEMA2 Explain the role and functions of the Federal Reserve System. b. Describe the organization of the Federal Reserve System
More informationSome Thoughts on Inflation, Tax Reform and the Fed
Some Thoughts on Inflation, Tax Reform and the Fed 1 st October 2017 Before this week s report, we wanted to draw your attention to the trade ideas section of the report we have run for the past few weeks.
More informationOn The Economy, Wages, Interest Rates & The Yield Curve
On The Economy, Wages, Interest Rates & The Yield Curve May 1, 2018 by Gary D. Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management Overview We touch on several bases today, starting with last Friday s initial estimate
More informationTake risks: If you win you will be happy; if you lose, you will be wise (Unknown)
David J. Klein Senior Vice President Financial Advisor The Auctus Group RBC Wealth Management Phone: 847-215-5326 Fax: 847-215-5315 Toll Free: 800-879-3246 e-mail: david.klein@rbc.com website: www.davidjklein.com
More informationWhy The US Unemployment Rate May Be Wrong
Why The US Unemployment Rate May Be Wrong April 8, 2015 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Atlanta Fed Predicts Zero Growth in the 1Q 2. March Unemployment Report Was a Stunner
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND THE US LODGING INDUSTRY. Aran Ryan Director Tourism
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND THE US LODGING INDUSTRY Aran Ryan Director aran.ryan@tourismeconomics.com @AranRyan1 March 22, 2017 Some historical perspective Room demand expansion continues Pace of demand growth
More informationFed Set To Pull Trigger Tomorrow - A Good Thing Or Bad? December 16, 2015 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management
Fed Set To Pull Trigger Tomorrow - A Good Thing Or Bad? December 16, 2015 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management Page 1, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved. FORECASTS & TRENDS E-LETTER
More informationTrump and Aftermarket Trade March 2017
Trump and Aftermarket Trade March 2017 Why Trump Focus on Trade: U.S. Trade Deficit Over Time $0 -$100 -$200 -$300 -$400 -$500 -$600 -$700 -$800 -$900 -$808 -$816 -$503 U.S. TRADE DEFICIT Billions 2007
More informationEcon 340. Outline: Current Tensions in the International Economy NAFTA NAFTA NAFTA NAFTA. Lecture 1 Current Tensions in the International Economy
Econ 340 Lecture 1 Current Tensions in the Lecture 1: Overview 2 NAFTA What is it? North American Free Trade Agreement Does many things but most important: Zero tariffs on most trade between US, Canada,
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist
May 218 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Slower but Still Solid Economic Growth in the First Quarter;
More informationLife after NAFTA? The odds that NAFTA will be torn up, not simply amended, appear to be increasing
Life after NAFTA? The odds that NAFTA will be torn up, not simply amended, appear to be increasing A bad NAFTA result either a renegotiated agreement that delivers less trade or a tear-up of the deal appears
More informationRegional Energy Security & Collaboration; Moving from a Free Trade Area, to a. North American Community. Remarks by the Honourable Sergio Marchi,
Regional Energy Security & Collaboration; Moving from a Free Trade Area, to a North American Community Remarks by the Honourable Sergio Marchi, President and CEO of the Canadian Electricity Association
More informationDon t Blame Baby Boomers For Not Retiring
Don t Blame Baby Boomers For Not Retiring October 4, 2016 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice In business, the 80/20 rule states that 80% of your business will come from 20% of your customers. In
More informationOutlook for the Economy and Travel Outlook for the Global Economy and Travel
Outlook for the Economy and Travel Outlook for the Global Economy and Travel Adam Sacks President Tourism Economics @adam_sacks Adam Sacks President Tourism Economics @adam_sacks Outline The Outlook for
More informationHow Is Global Trade Financed? (EA)
How Is Global Trade Financed? (EA) For countries to trade goods and services, they must also trade their currencies. If you have ever visited a foreign country, such as Mexico, you know that you must exchange
More informationCHINA S DIRECTION IN What is the Risk of a Debt Crisis?
Sinology by Andy Rothman January 18, 2018 a In 2018, I expect China s economy to return to the long-term trend of gradual deceleration, while remaining one of the world s fastestgrowing economies. a China
More informationCanadians Attitudes Toward NAFTA and Progressive Trade Issues. November 15, 2017
Canadians Attitudes Toward NAFTA and Progressive Trade Issues November 15, 2017 Methodology Online survey of 2,000 Canadians, 18+ October 5-16, 2017 Data weighted by gender, age, and region Region Sample
More informationBaseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*
July 218 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Economy Continues to Expand in Mid-218, But Trade Remains
More informationUS Worker Productivity In Serious Decline -- The Reasons Why
US Worker Productivity In Serious Decline -- The Reasons Why August 23, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. US Worker Productivity Falls Again, Worst Showing Since 1979 2. How Productivity
More information2018 3rd Quarter IN THIS ISSUE. Sentiment Crisis or Financial Crisis? Oct 10th, Sentiment Crisis?
2018 3rd Quarter Oct 10th, 2018 Sentiment Crisis or Financial Crisis? It appears that we are going through a regular correction in a bull market but time will tell. IN THIS ISSUE Sentiment Crisis? Year
More informationTHE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST FOR THE NATION
THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST FOR THE NATION DECEMBER REPORT Sunny 2018, Cloudy SUNNY 2018, CLOUDY Sunny 2018, Cloudy David Shulman Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast December Of a sudden, propelled
More informationThe expansion of the U.S. economy continued for the fourth consecutive
Overview The expansion of the U.S. economy continued for the fourth consecutive year in 2005. The President has laid out an agenda to maintain the economy's momentum, foster job creation, and ensure that
More informationChapter 20: The Future of NAFTA: A Policy Perspective
Chapter 20: The Future of NAFTA: A Policy Perspective Justino De La Cruz, Alan V. Deardorff, Richard G. Harris, Timothy J. Kehoe, and José Romero 34 In the final session of the conference, a panel of economists,
More informationOn The Economy, The Environment & Income Tax Time
On The Economy, The Environment & Income Tax Time April 4, 2015 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. How Concerned Are Americans About Climate Change? 2. The Weakest US Economic
More informationEconomic Optimism Abounds As Crude Oil Plunges
Economic Optimism Abounds As Crude Oil Plunges January 7, 2015 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. New Year Forecasts Upbeat & Revised Higher 2. Crude Oil Prices Plunged 46%
More informationQ U I C K E N L O A N S G U I D E. Understanding Mortgage Rates
Q U I C K E N L O A N S G U I D E Understanding Mortgage Rates Home Loan U is a free educational series from Quicken Loans, created to help you make the most of your home, and home financing, at every
More informationThe Global Economy Part I
The Global Economy Part I We have global markets which make us extremely interdependent so that what goes on in individual countries is of consequence to us all. -George Soros International Trade The flow
More informationChina-US Trade Disputes (I)
China-US Trade Disputes (I) Fung Business Intelligence 14 March 2018 An update on China-US trade disputes 1. Recent US moves have worsened China-US trade relations In November last year, the US officially
More informationGlobal Economic Slowdown - Implications For US Stocks
Global Economic Slowdown - Implications For US Stocks August 12, 2015 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Another Ho-Hum Unemployment Report For July 2. The Global Economy is
More informationQ Market Update
Page 1 of 6 Q3 2018 Market Update Sadiq S. Adatia, Chief Investment Officer Opinions as of October 1, 2018 HIGHLIGHTS Canada signs revamped NAFTA with the U.S. and Mexico Crude rises on new trade pact
More informationJeopardy. Trade Currency Int l Bus. Barriers. World Business Q$100 Q$100 Q$100 Q$100 Q$100 Q$200 Q$200 Q$200 Q$200 Q$200 Q$300 Q$300 Q$300 Q$300 Q$300
Jeopardy Trade Currency Int l Bus. Barriers World Business Q$100 Q$100 Q$100 Q$100 Q$100 Q$200 Q$200 Q$200 Q$200 Q$200 Q$300 Q$300 Q$300 Q$300 Q$300 Q$400 Q$400 Q$400 Q$400 Q$400 Q$500 Q$500 Q$500 Q$500
More informationWRITTEN SUBMISSON OF THE NATIONAL FOREIGN TRADE COUNCIL
WRITTEN SUBMISSON OF THE NATIONAL FOREIGN TRADE COUNCIL Comment Regarding Causes of Significant Trade Deficits for 2016 Docket Number DOC 2017-0003 May 10, 2017 These comments are submitted by the (NFTC)
More informationSTATEMENT OF THE ALLIANCE OF AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURERS BEFORE THE: SENATE COMMITTEE ON FINANCE
STATEMENT OF THE ALLIANCE OF AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURERS BEFORE THE: SENATE COMMITTEE ON FINANCE SUBCOMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE, CUSTOMS AND GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS November 20, 2017 PRESENTED BY: Mitch
More informationPubPol 201. Module 1: International Trade Policy. Class 3 Outline. Definitions. Class 3 Outline. Definitions. Definitions. Class 3
PubPol 201 Module 1: International Trade Policy Class 3 Trade Deficits; 2 3 Definitions Balance of trade = Exports minus Imports Surplus if positive Deficit if negative Reported in 2 forms Balance of trade
More informationThe G20 is a sideshow
27 November 2018 The G20 is a sideshow Tuuli Koivu Amy Yuan Zhuang Martin Enlund Expectations for the G20 meeting are overdone. The trade conflict between the US and China is not likely to be settled.
More informationCEO Confidence Index Q A quarterly survey measuring the confidence of Canadian business leaders of small-to-medium enterprises.
TEC Canada CEO Confidence Index / Q4 2018 1 /9 CEO Confidence Index A quarterly survey measuring the confidence of Canadian business leaders of small-to-medium enterprises. Q4 2018 TEC Canada CEO Confidence
More informationUS-MEXICO GEOPOLITICAL ENVIRONMENT UNDER PRESIDENT TRUMP ECONOMIC, BUSINESS AND LEGAL ASPECTS
US-MEXICO GEOPOLITICAL ENVIRONMENT UNDER PRESIDENT TRUMP ECONOMIC, BUSINESS AND LEGAL ASPECTS MÉXICO AND THE U.S. GOOD FRIENDS? Mexico and the U.S. have enjoyed a mutually beneficial relationship for several
More informationTopical: Natural Gas and Propane prices soar...
(c) 2006-2014 Gary R. Evans. May be used for educational purposes only without permission of the author. The National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) Data source for all slides are from the Bureau of
More informationAustralian Dollar Outlook
Tuesday, 31 March 015 Australian Dollar Outlook Still Under Pressure We have revised our AUD forecasts for this year down slightly to reflect developments over recent months. We now expect the AUD to end
More informationGundlach s Forecast for 2017
Gundlach s Forecast for 2017 January 11, 2017 by Robert Huebscher Investors will confront excessive debt, high P/E levels and political uncertainty as they enter the Trump presidential era. In response,
More informationDEFICITS, TARIFFS, AND TRADE WARS. Andrew Greenland, PhD. Assistant Professor of Economics
DEFICITS, TARIFFS, AND TRADE WARS Andrew Greenland, PhD. Assistant Professor of Economics DEFICITS, TARIFFS, AND TRADE WARS Why countries trade. The drivers of global integration. Who wins and who loses
More informationGLOBAL LOGISTICS & THE US TRADE DEFICIT
GLOBAL LOGISTICS & THE US TRADE DEFICIT HAULAGE AIR OCEAN WAREHOUSING PROJECTS CONTENTS Executive Summary 3 What is the Trade Deficit? 4 UK and US Trade Relations 5 What Next for UK and US International
More informationWon2One with Nick Foglietta
August 10 th 2015 Won2One with Nick Foglietta Tactical Equity Income Model Portfolio Record 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% S&P/TSX Composite RBC TEAM 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
More informationRetirement 20/20. Peter Drake, Vice President, Retirement and Economic Research Fidelity Investments Canada ULC 2013 FMR LLC.
Retirement 20/20 Peter Drake, Vice President, Retirement and Economic Research Fidelity Investments Canada ULC Important notice FOR ADVISOR USE ONLY. No recipient is authorized to pass this communication
More information5 International Trade
chapter: 5 International Trade 1. Assume Saudi Arabia and the United States face the production possibilities for oil and cars shown in the accompanying table. Saudi Arabia United States Quantity of oil
More informationFund Management Diary
Fund Management Diary Meeting held on 6 October 2015 The Fed s put is off While the Fed has been continually forecasting rate rises with monetary tightening in 2015, following the jobs data with only 142,000
More informationEcon 340. Announcements. Overview of the World Economy. Lecture 1 Outline. Overview of the World Economy. Lecture 1 Overview of the World Economy
Announcements Econ 340 Lecture 1 We will start discussing news next week, on Monday Jan 15. You should be watching for international economic news. Lecture 2: Institutions 2 Lecture 1 Outline Elements
More informationGLOBAL MARKETS IN ACTION
Chapt er 7 GLOBAL MARKETS IN ACTION Key Concepts How Global Markets Work The goods and services we buy from producers in other nations are our imports; the goods and services we sell to people in other
More informationNAFTA: The Canadian Perspective
NAFTA: The Canadian Perspective Consulate General of Canada in Denver September 2018 Purpose To demonstrate: The breadth and depth of the U.S.-Canada relationship The importance of Canada s relations with
More informationThe Global Recession of 2016
INTERVIEW BARRON S The Global Recession of 2016 Forecaster David Levy sees a spreading global recession intensifying and ultimately engulfing the world s economies By LAWRENCE C. STRAUSS December 19, 2015
More informationFED TAPERING FISCAL & REVENUE DEFICITS
FED TAPERING FISCAL & REVENUE DEFICITS The Finance Minister announced a 4.8 per cent revenue deficit and 6.8 per cent fiscal deficit in the Union Budget this week! So is that good or bad? What does Fiscal
More information4 BIG REASONS YOU CAN T AFFORD TO IGNORE BUSINESS CREDIT!
SPECIAL REPORT: 4 BIG REASONS YOU CAN T AFFORD TO IGNORE BUSINESS CREDIT! Provided compliments of: 4 Big Reasons You Can t Afford To Ignore Business Credit Copyright 2012 All rights reserved. No part of
More information1) Is the Canadian Government Trade Policy when it comes to USA and Europe Canada has separate trade policies with both the US and European Union.
1) Is the Canadian Government Trade Policy when it comes to USA and Europe Canada has separate trade policies with both the US and European Union. NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) is Canada
More informationEconomic and Portfolio Outlook 4th Quarter 2014 (Released October 2014)
Economic and Portfolio Outlook 4th Quarter 2014 (Released October 2014) Our economic outlook for the fourth quarter of 2014 for the U.S. is continued slow growth. We stated in our 3 rd quarter Economic
More informationHOW to MAKE an EASY 100% RETURN in 27 DAYS
INVESTOR REPORT HOW to MAKE an EASY 100% RETURN in 27 DAYS on the WORLD S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY by TOM GENTILE Investor Report From: Tom Gentile For: Power Profit Trades Subscribers How to Make an Easy
More informationPubPol 201. Module 1: International Trade Policy. Class 3 Trade Deficits; Currency Manipulation
PubPol 201 Module 1: International Trade Policy Class 3 Trade Deficits; Currency Manipulation Class 3 Outline Trade Deficits; Currency Manipulation Trade deficits Definitions What they do and do not mean
More informationEconomic Outlook, January 2015 January 9, Jeffrey M. Lacker President Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Economic Outlook, January 2015 January 9, 2015 Jeffrey M. Lacker President Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Virginia Bankers Association and Virginia Chamber of Commerce 2015 Financial Forecast Richmond,
More informationVista Adds a New Socially Conscious Portfolio
Vista Adds a New Socially Conscious Portfolio Introduction There s been plenty going on in the world we could discuss in this letter, but we d like to unveil something we ve been working on for quite a
More informationGoldilocks or the Three Bears?
Goldilocks or the Three Bears? June 11, 2017 by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen and Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab Key Points U.S. equities continue to grind higher, setting records, with volatility
More informationECON 201: Introduction to Macroeconomics Professor Robert Gordon Final Exam: March 18, 2016
ECON 201: Introduction to Macroeconomics Professor Robert Gordon Final Exam: March 18, 2016 NAME Directions: This test is in two parts, a multiple choice question part and a short-answer part. Use this
More informationStocks Laboring to Move Higher
Stocks Laboring to Move Higher August 31, 2018 by Liz Ann Sonders, Jeffrey Kleintop & Brad Sorensen of Charles Schwab Key Points U.S. stocks indexes finally moved to new record highs but not exactly in
More information