Vietnam Urban and Industrial Zone Development Corporation (IDICO) Big industrial park player launches IPO

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1 Vietnam Urban and Industrial Zone Development Corporation (IDICO) IPO Note Industry: Industrial Report Date: Sept 20, G IPO price: VND18,000 Rev Growth 16.1% -4.0% 13.5% 18 March 2011 NPAT Growth 19.7% 91.3% NA Market IPO price: $236.8 mn GPM 10.7% 11.3% NA Outstanding shares: mn NPM 4.4% 8.8% NA Shares offered to public: 55.3 mn Net debt/equity 133.6% -2.2% NA State ownership: mn ROE 9.2% 14.0% NA P/E 22.8x 15.0x Quan Vu Analyst quan.vuhong@vcsc.com.vn ext. 149 Lucy Huynh Senior Manager lucy.huynh@vcsc.com.vn ext. 130 Big industrial park player launches IPO IDICO is expected to maintain a stable project pipeline, driven by a favorable macroeconomic environment and industry outlook, with economies of scale, an integrated value chain and a track record of delivering large scale and complex projects. Management forecasts a consolidated revenue CAGR of 4.0% over A 4.0% revenue decline in 2016 to VND4.4 trillion (USD194 million) was due to share selldowns of the Dak Mi 4 and Dak Mi 4C hydropower plants. However, VND5.9 trillion (USD257.8 billion) of financial gains from the sell-downs caused NPAT to increase 91.3% to VND389 billion (USD17.6 million). From , IDICO posted revenue CAGR of 15.0% and NPAT CAGR of 30.8%. IDICO s hydropower segment, 47.0% of average revenue over (39.5% in H1 2017), represents 2.1% of total hydropower capacity in Vietnam. However, following the stake transferral in the Dak Mi 4 and 4C hydropower plants, the Industrial Parks (IPs) and Construction segments will become the main contributors to revenue. The Industrial Parks segment, which contributed 6.0% of average revenue over (9.2% in H1 2017), is ranked fourth in the industry in terms of total IP area (5,001 ha or 3.6% of total IP space in Vietnam). Construction accounted for 14.0% of average revenue over (15.9% in H1 2017), with a total contract value of VND10.3 trillion (USD450 million). Real estate activities represented 1.0% of average revenue over (20.4% in H1 2017). The southern region is IDICO s main market with total investment of VND3.0 trillion (USD132 million). At the IPO price, IDICO trades at a 2016 P/E of 13.9x and P/B of 1.5x, a premium to the peer average TTM P/E of 7.9x, but lower than last quarter s peer average P/B of 1.6x. IPO / Listing Summary Offering to public: IDICO is offering 55.3 million shares (18.4% of charter capital) to the public at an expected starting price of VND18.000/share. Each individual investor can register for a minimum of 100 shares to a maximum of 53,305,500 shares. The total value of the 55.3 million shares is VND995.5 billion (USD43.7 million) at the starting price. Offering to strategic investors: IDICO will sell 135 million shares (45% of charter capital) to a maximum of three investors who achieve all the firm s criteria. Each strategic investor can register for up to 45 billion shares (equivalent to 15% of charter capital). However, the offering to strategic investors will be conducted after the public auction. The total amount of 135 million shares is valued at VND2.4 trillion (USD106.6 million) at the starting price. Offering to employees: IDICO will sell 1.7 million shares (0.6% of charter capital) to employees with no shares facing a lock-up period. The total amount of 1.7 million shares is VND30.5 billion (USD1.3 million) at the starting price. Listing: No announcement has been made on plans for listing. Company Overview: Established in 2000, IDICO primarily invests in and develops infrastructure for hydropower plants, industrial parks (IP), toll roads and real estate projects under its 11 subsidiaries, 11 associates and joint ventures. IDICO also operates hydropower plants and toll roads. IDICO s notable projects include Nhon Trach IP (691 ha), My Xuan IP (529 ha), Dak Mi 4 Hydropower Project (A, B) and Nation Highway 2 (BOT). See important disclosure at the end of this document VCSC<GO> September

2 Figure 1: Structure of share capital under equitization plan: No. Shareholder No. of % charter Value (VND) shares capital 1 State (*) 108,000,000 1,080,000,000, % 2 Employees 1,649,500 16,945,000, % 2.1 Shares issued to employees at discount (100 shares/year) 600,800 6,008,000, % 2.2 Shares issued to employees based on working time commitment ( ,200 3,742,000, % shares/year) 2.3 Shares issued to highly qualified employees (500 shares/year) 719,500 7,195,000, % 3 Other investors through public auction 55,305, ,055,000, % 4 Strategic investors 135,000,000 1,350,000,000, % Total 300,000,000 3,000,000,000, % Source: IDICO (*) By December 31, 2018, all shares held by the State will be sold and the State will not have any ownership in IDICO. Figure 2: IDICO s subsidiaries, associates and joint ventures Company name Charter capital (VND bn) Charter capital (par value) IDICO s ownership 1) IDICO Urban and Industrial Zone Development Co., Ltd % 2) IDICO Construction Company limited % 3) Construction Investment Joint Stock Company No % 4) IDICO material Development and Construction Investment % Joint Stock Company 5) IDICO Infrastructure Development Investment Joint Stock Company %(*) 6) Que Vo IDICO Urban and Industrial Zone Development Investment Joint Stock Company %(*) 7) IDICO investment consultancy Joint Stock Company % 8) Construction and Natural Gas Joint Stock Company % 9) IDICO Long An Investment Construction Joint Stock Company % 10) IDICO Srok Phu Mieng hydropower Joint Stock Company % 11) Urban and House Development Investment Joint Stock Company % 12) Bien Hoa Vung Tau Expressway Development Joint Stock Company % 13) Phu My Ultra Clear Float Glass Co., Ltd % 14) Dak Mi Hydropower Joint Stock Company 1, % 15) Hai Phong Coastal Investment Joint Stock Company % 16) IDICO Machinery Erection Construction Investment Joint Stock Company Source: IDICO (*) Voting rate of IDICO % See important disclosure at the end of this document VCSC<GO> September 21,

3 Figure 3: Historical P&L VND bn growth Growth Revenue 4,610 4, % -4.0% Construction 812 1, % 30.4% Hydropower 2,822 2, % -21.4% Industrial parks % 36.8% Real estate % 14.2% Road toll % 9.4% Others % -18.8% Gross Profit Margin 10.7% 11.3% 0.4 ppts 0.6 ppts Construction 3% 3% -2.1 ppts -0.5 ppts Hydropower 5% 5% -1.5 ppts 0.2 ppts Industrial parks 45% 77% 7.8 ppts 31.6 ppts Real estate 42% 44% -4.3 ppts 2.3 ppts Road toll 44% 44% 3.8 ppts -0.1 ppts Others -24% NA ppts NA Operating profit % 1.0% NPAT-MI % 91.3% Source: IDICO s audited consolidated financial statement (*) Recognition of other revenue in FY2016 from the transfer of Dak Mi 4 Hydropower Plant and Dak Mi 4C (revenue: VND5.88 trillion). Favorable macroeconomic environment and industry outlook supports long-term growth. IDICO s core businesses should continue to benefit from the influx of foreign investment capital into Vietnam, which has been fuelled by a relatively stable political environment and attractive macroeconomic fundamentals compared to the region. According to the Foreign Investment Department, in 8M 2017, total registered Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and FDI disbursement increased by 45.1% and 5.1%, respectively, vs 8M With most capital flowing into the hightech manufacturing and energy sectors, IDICO will play a critical role in providing necessary infrastructure for industrial parks, toll roads and real estate developments. Strong project pipeline driven by high public debt levels. PPP, BT and BOT models are key government objectives to help reduce its debt burden and to attract private investors for infrastructure development. With IDICO s experience in building and managing large-scale, complex infrastructure projects across a broad range of sectors, IDICO is expected to have an advantage when bidding for significant national projects in the future. A track record of delivering large-scale, complex projects. IDICO s notable projects include: National Highway 2, expansion of National highway 51, expansion of National highway 1 in HCMC, National Highway No.56, National Highway 1A in Long An Province, among others, with total investment of VND12.3 trillion (USD537.8 million). Furthermore, in , IDICO will continue to invest in electricity, industrial parks, urban residential areas, and transportation projects with a total investment of VND7.13 trillion (USD313 million), namely: Huu Thanh IP, Phu 2 IP, Port at My Xuan A IP, Highway 1A-Highway 2 and the Dak Mi 3 hydropower plant, among others. Well located industrial parks in key strategic economic regions. Most of IDICO s IPs are located in the middle of the triangle economic zone of Ho Chi Minh City Dong Nai Ba Ria Vung Tau and close to facilitates for transportation, such as Cat Lai Port, Cai Mep Thi Vai Port and Tan San Nhat Airport in the South and Hai Phong Port and Noi Bai Airport in the North. An integrated value chain and economies of scale are its key competitive advantages. The group invests, develops and manages operations across its segments. IDICO's scale and efficient procurement strategy limits the impact of raw material price fluctuations on margins, as well as ensuring stable raw material supply. This is reflected by the group s stable gross profit and EBIT margins over Looking forward, the advancement of IDICO s capabilities from coordination with foreign partners in complex projects (e.g. the Turbine Boring Machine (TBM) See important disclosure at the end of this document VCSC<GO> September 21,

4 from Europe and the Japan Pile Corporation) should benefit the group s long-term competitiveness and profitability. Figure 4: Profit margins 12.0% 10.3% 10.7% 11.3% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.6% 5.8% 8.8% 6.2% 4.0% 4.4% 2.0% 3.3% 0.0% Source: Consolidated financial statements Figure 5: ROA and ROE GPM EBIT margin NPAT-MI margin 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 8.9% 9.2% 8.0% 4.0% 0.0% 1.6% 3.0% 1.1% ROE ROA Source: Consolidated financial statements parent business plan indicates blended margins to weaken as construction ramps up. Management forecasts a consolidated revenue CAGR of 4.0% over No other details on the consolidated business plan were disclosed. IDICO s parent business plan indicates solid growth in the IP segment given that 62% of the parent company s investment plan is earmarked for IP infrastructure projects. However, with low margin construction revenue also ramping up, blended margins are set to weaken. We note that 60.6% of the parent company s investment plan will debt financed. Revenue contribution of hydropower segment to drop. The segment represented, on average, 47% of revenues over and is expected to remain a key contributor as IDICO maintains its leading position among non-evn electricity generation companies. IDICO is currently investing and developing four hydropower projects with a total capacity of 322 MW and total investment capital of VND7.64 trillion (USD355 million). However, with IDICO s stake in the Dak Mi 4 and Dak Mi 4C hydropower plants reduced to 26% from 100% upon transfer to the Dak Mi Hydropower Joint Stock Company, we expect the segment s contribution to revenue will decrease, as these hydropower plants previously contributed 64.6% of IDICO s hydropower revenue. See important disclosure at the end of this document VCSC<GO> September 21,

5 Business plan post-equitization Figure 6: IDICO s guidance for parent company post-equitization VND bn CAGR Total revenue (consolidated) 5,020 5,081 5, % Total revenue (separate) 932 1,130 1, % Industrial parks % growth 14.0% 14.2% Power trading % growth 149.4% 0.0% Residential and real estate % growth -29.7% 50.0% Construction % growth 50.0% 50.0% Financial income Total cost (separate) ,179 PBT (separate) % NPAT (separate) % NPAT margin 16.3% 15.5% 14.4% EPS (VND/share) % Dividend (VND bn) Source: IDICO Figure 7: Investment plans (VND bn) No Project Name (*) Total Resource investment Debt Equity Total 2,226 2,302 2,599 7,127 4,338 2,789 Parent company 2,105 2,072 2,289 6,466 3,918 2,548 1 Investment in housing and urban area development projects 2 Investment in infrastructure at IPs 1,323 1,365 1,341 4,029 2,293 1,736 3 Investment in electricity production projects Investment in technical 4 infrastructure development , projects Whole owned subsidiaries of IDICO Investment in housing and urban area development projects 2 Investment in centralized industrial parks Source: IDICO (*) selected typical projects See important disclosure at the end of this document VCSC<GO> September 21,

6 Peer multiples To compare IDICO with selected listed companies, we selected peers operating in the industrial parks, hydropower and IP infrastructure sectors. Based on 2016 consolidated data, at an initial auction price of VND18,000, a share of IDICO represents a 2016 P/E of 13.9x and P/B of 1.5x, higher than the peer average TTM P/E of 7.9x, but lower than last quarter s peer average P/B of 1.6x. Ticker Infrastructure 6M Price change Market cap (USD) Figure 8: Local peers TTM Net Sale s Y-o-Y % TTM NPAT Y-o-Y % Gross margin Net margin Debt/E quity KBC 4.3% (30.2) 25.7 (24.7) LHG 33.3% (29.2) SZL 22.0% (112.2) IDV 32.3% (193.1) Average (78.8) Hydropower PPC 29.0% (10.6) VSH 25.9% SHP 19.6% CHP 35.2% Average Infrastructure CTI 19.8% (6.2) HTI 4.7% (11.9) CII 9.5% Average (1.9) ROE ROA TTM P/E LQ P/B Average Median IDICO(*) Source: Bloomberg, VCSC. (*) Consolidated FY2016 financial statement. See important disclosure at the end of this document VCSC<GO> September 21,

7 Figure 9: Financial Statements by Year INCOME STATEMENT (VND bn) 2014A 2015A 2016A BALANCE SHEET (VND bn) 2014A 2015A 2016A Revenue 3,972 4,609 4,423 Cash & cash equivalents ,550 COGS -3,567-4,115-3,923 Short term investment Gross Profit Accounts receivables 780 5, Sales & Marketing exp Inventories General & Admin exp Other current assets Operating Profit (EBIT) Total Current assets 1,825 6,900 4,524 Financial income Fix assets, gross 12,793 7,844 9,214 Financial expenses Depreciation -2,206-2,133-2,397 In which, interest expense Fix assets, net 10,587 5,711 6,817 Share profit/loss from associates LT investment Net other income/(loss) LT assets other Profit before Tax Total LT assets 187 6,634 7,994 Income Tax Total Assets 11,527 13,534 12,518 NPAT before MI Minority Interest Accounts payable NPAT less MI, reported Short-term debt Other ST liabilities 1, Total Current Liabilities 2,262 1,572 1,572 Long term debt 4,891 2,382 2,382 RATIOS 2014A 2015A 2016A Long term unrealized revenue 3,300 4,032 4,938 Growth Other Liabilities Revenue growth 2.8% 16.1% -4.0% Total Liabilities 10,520 10,287 8,994 Operating profit growth % -54.4% 2.9% 0.0% PBT growth % 16.7% 21.3% 76.8% NPAT growth %, -2.3% 20.8% 76.8% Preferred equity Paid in capital/issued capital Profitability Add I share capital/share premium Gross Profit Margin % 10.2% 10.7% 11.3% Retained earnings Operating Profit Margin % 6.6% 5.9% 6.2% Other Equity 1,703 2,008 2,283 NPAT less MI Margin, adj. % 4.3% 4.4% 8.8% Minority of interest ROE % 8.9% 9.2% 14.0% Total Equity 2,833 3,247 3,524 ROA % 1.1% 1.6% 3.0% Liabilities & equity 13,353 13,534 12,518 Efficiency CASH FLOW (VND bn) 2014A 2015A 2016A Days Inventory On Hand Cash from Operations 789 1,152 5,040 Days Accts. Receivable Cash from Investments Days Accts. Payable Cash from Financing ,385 Cash Conversion Days Beginning Cash Balance Liquidity Net Change in Cash ,863 Current Ratio x 0.8x 4.6x 2.9x Ending Cash Balance ,550 Quick Ratio x 0.5x 3.9x 2.3x Cash Ratio x 0.1x 0.6x 1.8x Debt / Assets % 40.2% 38.8% 89.2% Debt / Capital % 189.5% 161.6% 79.1% Net Debt / Equity % 177.3% 133.6% -2.2% Interest Coverage 3.0x 3.0x 2.3x See important disclosure at the end of this document VCSC<GO> September 21,

8 Rating and Valuation Methodology Absolute, long term (fundamental) rating: The recommendation is based on implied total return for the stock defined as (target price current price)/current price + dividend yield, and is not related to market performance. RATING DEFINITION BUY Total stock return including dividends over next 12 months expected to exceed 20% OUTPERFORM (O-PF) MARKET PERFORM (M-PF) UNDERPERFORM (U-PF) SELL NOT RATED RATING SUSPENDED Total stock return including dividends over next 12 months expected to be positive 10%-20% Total stock return including dividends over next 12 months expected to be between negative 10% and positive 10% Total stock return including dividends over next 12 months expected to be negative 10%-20% Total stock return including dividends over next 12 months expected to be below negative 20% The company is or may be covered by the Research Department but no rating or target price is assigned either voluntarily or to comply with applicable regulation and/or firm policies in certain circumstances, including when VCSC is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company. A rating that happens when fundamental information is insufficient to determine an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and target price, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock. Unless otherwise specified, these performance parameters only reflect capital appreciation and are set with a 12-month horizon. Future price volatility may cause temporary mismatch between upside/downside for a stock based on market price and the formal recommendation, thus these performance parameters should be interpreted flexibly. Risks: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related instrument mentioned in this report. For investment advice, trade execution or other enquiries, clients should contact their local sales representative. See important disclosure at the end of this document VCSC<GO> September 21,

9 Disclaimer Analyst Certification of Independence I, Quan Vu, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The equity research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues, which include revenues from, among other business units, Institutional Equities and Investment Banking. 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10 Contacts Corporate Head Office Hanoi Branch Bitexco Financial Tower, 2 Hai Trieu Street 109 Tran Hung Dao District 1, HCMC Hoan Kiem District, Hanoi Transaction Office Transaction Office 10 Nguyen Hue Street Nguyen Cong Tru Street District 1, HCMC District 1, HCMC Research Research Team Barry Weisblatt, Head of Research, ext barry.weisblatt@vcsc.com.vn research@vcsc.com.vn Digvijay Singh, Senior Manager, ext 145 Real Estate, Construction and Materials Banks, Securities, Insurance Hong Luu, Manager, ext Nghia Dien, Analyst, ext Anh Nguyen, Analyst, ext Son Tong, Analyst, ext Vy Nguyen, Analyst, ext 147 Macro - Luong Hoang, Analyst, ext 364 Oil & Gas, Power and Fertilizer - Nguyen Truong, Analyst, ext 132 Duong Dinh, Manager, ext Tram Ngo, Analyst, ext 135 Consumer and Pharma - Thanh Nguyen, Analyst, ext 173 Phap Dang, Senior Manager, ext Dao Nguyen, Senior Analyst, ext 185 Retail Client Research - Nghia Le, Analyst, ext 181 Duc Vu, Manager, ext Nam Hoang, Analyst, ext 196 Industrials and Transportation - Ha Dao, Analyst, ext 194 Lucy Huynh, Senior Manager, ext Tra Vuong, Analyst, ext Quan Vu, Analyst, ext Phu Pham, Analyst, ext 124 Institutional Sales and Brokerage & Foreign Individuals Head of Institutional Sales Vietnamese Sales Michel Tosto, M. Sc. Dung Nguyen ext ext 136 michel.tosto@vcsc.com.vn dung.nguyen@vcsc.com.vn Retail & Corporate Brokerage Ho Chi Minh City Hanoi Quynh Chau Quang Nguyen ext ext 312 quynh.chau@vcsc.com.vn quang.nguyen@vcsc.com.vn See important disclosure at the end of this document VCSC<GO> September 21,