Economic Indicators APRIL Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report. by the Council of Economic Advisers

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1 Economic Indicators APRIL 195 Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 195

2 ii JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania JOHN J. SPARKMAN, Alabama PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah (Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 34, 79th Cong.) JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Viet Chairman WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas WALTER B, HUBER, Ohio FRANK BUCHANAN, Pennsylvania JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania THEODOBE J. KEEPS, Staff Director GROVER W. ENSUSY, Associate Staff Director JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts [PUBLIC LAW 12 81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237 IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S. J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators* 7 Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Committee on the Econom Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish 1 copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of tl House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joii Committee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to deposito libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, To the Members of Congress: From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established its members realized that one of i basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of current economic trends and developments. Fortunately, the joint committee found that Economic Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled month by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably filled this need. While this material was prepared originally for t use of the President, the Council, and other officials in the executive offices, the Council made it available to the joi committee. Other Members of Congress also expressed an interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current econon facts without having to go through voluminous and specialized documents. In addition businessmen, farm leade labor organizations, and representatives of the press and radio indicated their desire for this information. Accordingly, the joint committee provided the Congress and the public with a limited number of copies Economic Indicators as a committee print pending final action on authorizing the publication on a more permanent bas As is indicated above such legislation has now been passed and the committee will issue the report on a regular montl basis. Comments or suggestions with respect to possible improvements in this presentation will always be welcome ti.s.s./ Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report

3 Letter o Transmittal Hon. JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report, United States Congress, Washington, D. C. DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the Joint Committee on the Economic Report in making Economic Indicators available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public, in accordance with Public Law 12, Eightyfirst Congress. In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts showing current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the improvement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services. In this undertaking the Council has the full cooperation of the several agencies of the Federal Government that collect statistical material. In many cases these agencies supply advance estimates for use in Economic Indicators. While the charts are drawn through the courtesy of the Graphics Unit in the Office of the Secretary of Commerce, the Council takes complete responsibility for the graphic presentation. This material has proven useful to the President, the Council, the executive departments, and the Congress. Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations with whom we regularly consult. We believe that the Congress is performing a service of real value by making this material available. Sincerely yours, / Chairman. 111

4 Contents THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY Page The Nation's Economic Budget 1 Gross National Product 2 PRICES Consumers' Prices 3 Wholesale Prices 4 Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 5 Stock Prices 6 EMPLOYMENT Labor Force 7 Nonagricultural Employment Selected Industries 8 Average Weekly Hours Selected Industries 9 Work Stoppages 1 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production 11 Weekly Production Selected Indicators 12 Production of Selected Manufactures 13 New Construction 14 New Housing Starts 15 Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 16 New Corporate Security Issues 17 Inventories and Sales 18 Merchandise Exports and Imports 19 PURCHASING POWER National Income 2 Corporate Profits 21 Personal Income 22 Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving 23 Personal Consumption Expenditures 24 Per Capita Income 25 Average Hourly Earnings Selected Industries 26 Average Weekly Earnings Selected Industries 27 Farm Income 28 Consumer Credit 29 MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE Bank Loans and Investments Money Supply 3 31 Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public 32 IV

5 THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET The peak rate of residential construction and continued high expenditures for consumer durable goods stimulated economic activity during 1st quarter I96. The payment of the National Service Life Insurance dividend to veterans resulted in a sharp rise in consumer disposable income, most of which was not spent during 1 st quarter th Quarter TOTAL (Gross National Product) ()" EXCESS OF EXPENDITURES (-), RECEIPTS (+) CONSUMERS Transfer payments I/ - O -f T-^*:-:'^! CON- i-:;:::i:::i SUMER >:;- : fr:l SAVING BUSINESS EXCESS OF INVESTMENT INTERNATIONAL \ EXCESS OF \ RECEIPTS GOVERNMENT (Federal, state, and local) 57.4 SO. 2 ^Transfer payments - CASH DEFICIT I96, 1st Quarter ()-^ TOTAL (Gross National Product) CONSUMERS Transfer p'ayments :i: :ii:sii i!:!i!il SUMEI ::::;:-:;: : : :-; : : IMER :::l SAVthNG BUSINESS EXCESS OF INVESTMENT INTERNATIONAL EXCESS OF RECEIPTS - 2. GOVERNMENT (Federal, state and local) 57.4 CASH DEFICIT MHWCI SPl ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY 195, APPENDIX A COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

6 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT Gross notional product the market value of the Nation's output of goods and services in 1st quarter of 195 was about I percent above 4th quarter of 1949, according to preliminary data. Personal consumption expenditures and gross private domestic investment accounted for most of the increase. 3 ANNUAL TOTALS ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OP DOLLARS 3 25 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT 2 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 15 1 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 5 «******* V***«>^>v «-^ GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES \ 'NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT -5 I I I 1 1 I I I I I 1 I I* I [Billions of dollars] Total gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Net foreign investment Government purchases of goods and services _ , Annual rates, seasonally adjusted : Third quarter Fourth quarter : First quarter Second quarter Third quarter _ Fourth quarter 1 95 : First quarter l _ Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data. NOTE. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).

7 PRICES CONSUMERS' PRICES Consumers' prices continued to decline slightly in February. A drop in food prices and a slight decrease in apparel prices were partially offset by increases in rent and prices of housefurrrishings, fuel, electricity and refrigeration PERCENT OF AVERAGE PERCENT OF AVERAGf 22 MONTHLY AVERAGE A FOOD*./ /\ // 1 / vxx ' ' ^-^~^ S^ V **^» " i "> "»» APPAREL*. // / ^^X^ALL ITEMS 12 If RENTV^X^ -«* A,, T - -^-^-^-*-*-»-*- _^^-»-«^r-»~» -» *-*"^ 12 1 *^^ 1 ^' 8 8 * v-» ^x I ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' 1 1 I i I 1 I I 1 I 1 I SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [ =1] All items Food Apparel Rent Fuel, electricity, and refrigeration House furnishings Miscellaneous 194 monthly average monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average.. monthly average monthly average 1949: January 15 _. February 15 March April 15_ May 15 June 15 July 15 August 15.» September 15_. October 15 November 15. _. December : January 15 - February NOTE, Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities. Source: Department of Labor.

8 WHOLESALE PRICES Industrial prices continued during March the stability which has characterized them since last June. Moderate changes in farm and food prices left them somewhat lower at the end of the month. PERCENT OF AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE EtO ISO ( 12 1 OTHER THAN FARM PRODUCTS AND FOODS (INDUSTRIAL) too 1 ILI i I I i I i }ii i i I lj i i i t I 1illit i i i.i i I i j i i i I i I i I i I i i ill I.; ) i i i 1 i i i i II Iill i I i I I i j I i i i 1,1 [ [i I'i 1 ' \ IILI >-' -i < I 1 i I i I I.J LATEST DATA PLOTTED ; MONTHLY - MARCH WEEKLY - MARCH 28 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 1942 monthly average 1946 monthly average - _ June _ monthly average- monthly average 1949 monthly average 1949: February Mareh. April May, June July August September- October. _ November December 195: January February March 1 Week ended: 195: February 28 March 7 _ April 4_.-_ 1 Estimate based on change in weekly data. Source: Department of Labor. [1926=1] All commodities Farm products Foods Other than farm products and foods

9 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices paid by farmers rose from February 15 to March 15, reflecting increases in commodities used in production, especially feeder livestock. A sharp drop in truck-crop prices and a seasonal decrease in dairy products were offset by increases in most other groups, so that the prices received index was unchanged and the parity ratio fell I percent. PERCENT OF AVERAGE 35 PERCENT OF I9IOH4 AVERAGE 35 3 PRICES RECEIVED 3 PRICES PAID (INCL. INTEREST, TAXES AND WAGE RATES) ISO too ^^ 1 PARITY RATIO* M I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 1949 I96 # RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES AND WAGE RATES. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL ECONOMIC ADVISERS [191-14= 1] Prices received by farmers 1939 monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average _ monthly average 275 monthly average monthly average : February March April May 15.._. 253 June July August September 15 _ 247 October November December : January February March 15 _ 237 Prices paid by farmers (including interest, taxes, and wage rates) Parity ratio l 1 Ratio of index of prices received to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. 2 Includes wartime subsidy payments paid on beef cattle, sheep, lambs, milk, and butterfat between October 1943 and June Source: Department of Agriculture

10 STOCK PRICES With the stock market continuing strong during March, most stock prices were higher than at any time since the 1946 peak. PERCENT OF AVERAGE 175 WEEKLY AVERAGE WEEKLY AVERAGE PERCENT OF AVERAGE INDUSTRIALS \ _^_. COMPOSITE INDEX 1 UTILITIES J I I 1 I t I I 1 I J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N 1949 ii it i l iii i M A M J J A S O N I96 SOURCE: STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL Of CCOWOMIC ADVISERS Weeklv average: ' _ : 195: Week ended: 195: February March April. _ May June July August September October November December Januarv February March ^ _ March _ April 5 [ =1] Combined index l Industrials Railroads Utilities Combined index prior to June 23,, was based on 42 common stocks, and included 354 industrials, 2 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 2 railroads, and 31 utilities. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation

11 LABOR FORCE EMPLOYMENT Unemployment in March declined by more than 55,. Agricultural employment increased seasonally by about 45,. Employment in nonagricultural industries also increased seasonally. MILLIONS OF PERSONS m iy;...!','ui -,-. sffi M I 9/, - 9, 9* 9 _ UNEMPLOYMENT TOTAL \ LABOR FORCE 1 --.^ivxtx^!*^^^ \ ^^-^^ ;. - - MILLIONS OF PERSONS x'^^x-x-x' O 3 ' ' ; - 3 «. - NONAGR CULTURAL EMPLOYMENT 2 - : ; '." "'; 2 1 ~ * '' "'*/ - ; ' - ' ] 1 PERCENT i i i i i 1 it i i I i iimc-r/im /~>va*rrmt DCTD^CTMT r\c TATAi I AQAD crnorc fx': : >>:-:J I.Y.V.Y.vl ! fttttttl l.v.v.v.-j ,\ [-: : : >»:} ^^^WWil^^ MONTHLY AVERAGE " ' 948 \ \^\ t"4 If III I ^_^--~ -^^ 1 1 I I 1 Xv^\v>>i-x%\tv>>;l>>>;l>;\-:1>>x^-:v>:lv>>>}:v:\'t<v>t-x\%\ v>xt-xxi-> I.,)_..,. n PERCENT 2,,..»,,... D,...,,. S monthly average 1944 monthly average 1947 monthly average monthly average monthly average 1949: February March April May t. "j June July August September October November December 195: January February March Total labor force, including armed forces 55, 6 65, 89 61, 68 62, , , , 35 62, , , , , 15 64, , 21 64, , , , 3 63, 21 Total Civilian employment 1 In nonagricultural industries Armed forces Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over 45, 75 53, 96 58, 27 59, , 71 57, , , , , , 72 59, ,411 59, 1 59, , , , , , 14 45, 1 49, , 45 5, 684 5, 174 5, , , 72 49, 924 5, 73 51, , , 29 51, 64 51, 783 5, 749 5, 73 5, 877 9, 61 8,95 8,266 7,973 8,26 6,993 7, 393 7,82 8,974 9,696 9, 647 8,57 8, 158 7,71 7,878 6,773 6, 198 6, 223 6, , 26 1,44 1,37 1,466 1,58 1,491 1,492 1,469 1,468 1,463 1,468 1,459 1,445 1, 436 1, 43 1,48 1, 366 1,346 9, , 142 2,64 3,395 3, 221 3, 167 3,16 3,289 3,778 4,95 3, 689 3, 351 3,576 3,49 3,489 4,48 4,684 4,123 In agriculture Unemployment Unemployment as percent of total labor force 1 Includes part-time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, temporary lay-off, and industrial disputes. NOTE. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce

12 NONAGRICULTURAL EM[PLC )YMENT - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Employment In February was slightly lower in durable rriqnufacturing because of the auto strike. Mining employment was seriously affected by the coal strike, Seasonal factors accounted for the employment increase in nondurable manufacturing and the decrease n trade and construction. MILL IONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS DURABLE MANUFACTURING 1947^ <>^^- ^JIcL~"~' """--v^ f^..~-^"*" MILLI ONS OF WAGE AND JSALARY WORKERS 8. NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING i.. 7. j^^^^o^ "" Q" - ""<<o~««,fmm<. """""_ JMX* /^IX* " " ^** ^^ ^^"^N^ 7.5 7, r- ^~\--^\ / Elsfrl \ ^/ "~" ' ==L U F M A M J J A S O N ' D m,, 9 J 9 - ~ I I ~ J F M A M J J A, S N D 3, CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION 1.5 TRADE *-o»- I948X^^ ^ ^^^^"^^ /isp 1949 ' ^^*~^. - ""--^i l <^^>^~ ,3,3 ^ ^/ // j/' , plsftp. ' r*>~*~ ~~"" J F M A M J J A S O N D ~~ 1 I 1 1 I 1! ~~1 J F M A M J J A S O N O SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 9 monthly average 3 monthly average 6 monthly average 7 monthly average _ ~ _ 8 monthly average _. «9 monthly average 3._ 9: January - - February^,.._ March -.. April. -. ^ _ ^_ May June :, July August September October November December 3 >* January 3 February 3 Total 1, 78 17, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 87 14, 33 13, , 16 [Thousands of wage and salary workers l ] Manufacturing Durable goods ( 2 ) ( 2 ) ( 2 ) 8,373 8,315 7,465 8,44 7,923 7,819 7,656 7,441 7,392 7,255 7,32 7,49 6,986 7,5 7,3 7,354 7,344 Nondurable goods ( 2 ) ( 2 ) ( 2 ) 6,874 6,97 6,682 6,738 6,726 6,656 6,521 6,436 6,492 6,52 6,812 6, 93 6,96 6,757 6,733 6, 643 6,672 1, 15 1,567 1,661 1,982 2,165 2, 156 2,16 1, 926 1,947 2,36 2, 137 2,25 2, 277 2,34 2,341 2,313 2, 244 2,88 1,914 1,829 Trade 6,75 7,322 8,815 9, 196 9,491 9,438 9,388 9,292 9,31 9,478 9,342 9, 336 9,22 9,213 9,49 9, 55 9,67 1, 154 9,266 9, 178 Finance and service 4,61 5, 187 5,994 6,427 6,515 6,544 6,454 6,447 6,469 6,525 6,567 6,68 6,631 6,616 6,64 6,561 6,534 6,56 6,473 6,476 Government (Federal, State, local) 3,987 6,49 5,67 5,454 5,613 5,811 5,764 5,737 5,761 5,775 5,813 5,83 5,738 5,763 5,893 5,866 5,783 6,41 5,777 5, 742 Contract construction Transportation and public utilities 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending irest the 1 5th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this >prietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and ich are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 3 Not available. * Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor. 2,912 3,619 4,23 4, 122 4, 151 3,979 4,54 4,24 3,975 3,991 4,21 4,31 4,7 3,992 3,959 3, 871 3,892 3,934 3,873 3,835 Mining

13 AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES 1 "he workweek in February was almost stable in both durable and nondurable manufacturing industries. HOUF*S PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING ~vy^l N^\A^V Vv/V V- h\x V. S*~ *« MMI i 1 J JJI Jllll 1 IL1 1 1 II ] 1 U_LI_ I ! i i ! I 1 I 1 I I II BUILDING CONSTRUCTION RETAIL TRADE TVs*. /\,*_/V/r ^r ^~M\ * \ *,,. ILJI.LLJ.LLL 1947 f, t i i i i i i i i t l : i i i i i 1 t i i i i 1 1 I i I i i i i i 1 i i i l i 1949 I95O SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average. monthly average monthly average 3 : December 1949: January. _ February March April May. - June. _ July August Sftptem her ~ October November December s 195 : January 3 February 3 1 For production and related workers. 1 Not available. 1 Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor. [Hours per week, selected industries l ] Total Manufacturing Durable goods (2) (2) (2) r Nondurable goods (2) (2) (2) T>.! J-.tsuilaing construction M (2) (2) ( 2 ) Retail trade (2) M?2) ( 2 )

14 WORK STOPPAGES Due primarily to the work stoppage in the coal mining and automobile industries, man-days of idleness jumped from 2.6 million in January to 7.8 million in February. 2 MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE MONTHLY AVERAGE MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR , : January February March _ April May... June July August September October. November December 195: January ^ February l _ Man-days of idleness during period Monthly average (thousands) 1,483 1, , ,166 9,667 2,883 2,842 4, ,46 1, 88 3,43 4,47 2,35 2, 14 6, 27 17, 5 6,27 1, 35 2, 6 7,85 Percent of estimated working time Workers involved in stoppages Beginning in period (thousands) 1, 17 2, ,98 2, 12 3,47 4,6 2, 17 1, 96 3, In effect during month (thousands) Number of stoppages Beginning in period 2,613 4,288 2,968 3,752 4,956 4,75 4,985 3,693 3,419 3, In effect during month Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor.

15 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION The upward trend in industrial production, which started last November, was interrupted in February by work stoppages. But preliminary March data indicate recovery in the total index in spite of a small drop in nondurable manufacturing output. PERCENT OF AVERAGE 4 PERCENT OF AVERAGE i I I I J I i I * PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average monthly average 1949 monthly average " January February March April May - - June July August _ September October. _ November December 195: Januarv February l March 1 [ =1, seasonally adjusted] Total industrial production Total IManufactures Durable goods 1 Preliminary estimate. Source; Boajrd of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Nondurable goods Minerals

16 WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS Steel ingot production rose sharply in March. Electric povver production continued at peak rates. Bituminous coal mining returned to regular operations. Automobiles were being assembled at a somewhat higher rate than in February but below the January peak rates. Mil-LIONS OF TONS 3 STEEL BILL 7. ONS OF KILOWATT HOURS ELECTRIC POWER 2 1 O MILL I.O u,s49~y 1 / I I I J F M A M J J A S O N D ONS OF SHORT TONS BITUMINOUS COAL ^^ «1949 Jj / 1 'N 1 L " leelj, / 1 ^^ 1 ^ r K 1 Uu i! \ ' j F M A M J J A S O N D 6. 5.O THOU ISO 12 BO O J 194 s v^^»^ / v V SANDS F M A i CARS AND TRUCKS i i Ii J J ^ Y 7A Ml ~ l\ IE33 A i V~ I,/K r^a, \ 1 /,948 S\ F M A M A y- ' II i i i <n I I I I A S N D.N 'V ^ T i i i i A S O N D SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, DEPA RTMENT F THE INTERIOR, WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Steel Thousands of Percent of net tons capacity ' Electric power, by utilities (millions of kilowatt-hours) Bituminous coal (thousands of short tons)! Cars and trucks (number) Weeklv average: , 628 1, , ,821 5,3 5,5 2,58 1,948 1,418 9, 86 1, 67 12, 8 Week ended: 1949: March 5. 1, , , , 864 April 2. 1, , ,552 5,531 5,496 5, 44 5,378 5,36 1,769 1, ,987 1,99 113, , , , , , : March , , , , 821 April ,879 5,937 6,15 5, , ,2 2, 233 2,85 3 2, , , , , , Based on weekly net ton capacity of 1,749,928 for 1947, 1,82,476 for, 1,843,516 for 1949,and 1, 96,268 for Daily average for week. 3 Data became available after chart was prepared. Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports.

17 ] OF JFED MANUFACTURES F^reduction of most durable goods except iron and sreel and transportation equipment increased in February. 1fhe largest increases were in machinery and lumber and pr< Dducts. Output of most nondurable industries c;ontinued at high rates reached last fall. PERCIINT OF AVERAGE 25 r\, IRON A sid STEEL /Y 8 /~\ A -*\ r</ fx» I A 15 ^\ j V* '*''**'* * x / / S *-. ^""-LUMB ER AND PRODUCTS" If \ f -vf V x ' 1 L J L_ ' i r i i i i i i i i T~I MI i I 1 i 1 1 I i 1 1 if PERCIENT OF AVERAGE 25 1 \ PETROLEUN AND COALv^ OC)UCTS ^r / i V «\ >'* 1 V i V / r^j^\ 4 ^""A. * ""i i i i i i i i i r~i -.^v ^v> I/ ^-TEXTILE 5 ind PRODUCTS "77 1 l 1 1 i l l 1 1 \A/ A / V i h l s mi M i nfr n ">K ; \ v \ / \ j \,>\ / / ' \ J NONFERROUS H NERYv L L m METALS AND PROD K V, J ), r' / \ 1 JCTS ~"1 1 1 I 1 i 1 f~~ I 1 1 M 1 i I I96 V f rr \ 1» c*. ; \ ^ I V \ j i i i 1 i y^~\^ **** C AL PRODUCTS ^^s*f p- 1 S ^MANUFACTURED FOOD / S PRODUCTS " JLJ L L r~7 i i i i i i i i i i rti x/ «s^s^^ ^x-x. s 1 I I i 1 1 I 1 1 i i * rn 1949 I \ SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [ =1, seasonally adjusted] Iron and steel Durable manufactures Lumber and products Machinery Nonferrous metals and products Textiles and products Nondurable manufactures Petroleum and coal products Manufactured food products Chemical products 943 monthly average. _ 946 monthly average. 947 monthly average 948 monthly average 949 monthly average- 949 * January Februarv March April - _ Mav _ June Julv August September October November _. December 95* Januarv February * Preliminary estimate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

18 NEW CONSTRUCTION New construction rose in March, maintaining its lead over last year in all construction activity except private nonresidential. MILLIONS 2, OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2, 1,5 I,5O 1, 5 m i i i \ \i i&i i%:!\ JA S N D J F M A M J J A S N D J F M A M J J A S N D J F M A M J 1, 5 * INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS (Millions of dollars] Total new construction Total private Private construction Residential (nonfarm) Other Federal, State, and local» 1939 monthly average monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average- _ monthly average monthly average 1949* February March ;. April - ;_.-.» _-.i -May : _.. June : July August - - September..... October. November December 195: January i.-. February --. March , , 194 1,565 1,611 1, 172 1, 267 1,37 1,576 1,735 1,833 1,93 1,922 1, 879 1,767 1,612 1,496 1,395 1, ,214 1, ,18 1,229 1,31 1,343 1,368 1, 343 1,295 1,225 1, 139 1,68 1, Includes public residential construction. 1 Preliminary estimate. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. 14

19 NEW HOUSING STARTS Housing starts continued their record pace in February and again in March, according to preliminary reports. THOUSANDS OF UNITS 125 THOUSANDS OF UNITS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 1\ /r j. -L. ivlontn 1947 New nonfarm units started January February March _ April Mav VMO-J -~ ~ ~ - June July - - _ - August September _ October November December 39, 3 48, 8 56, 67, 1 72, 9 77, 2 81, 1 86, 3 93, 8 94, 79, 7 58, 8 53, 5 5, 1 76, 4 99, 5 1, 3 97, 8 95, 86, 6 82, 2 73, 4 63, 6 52, 9 5, 5, 4 69, 4 88, 3 95, 4 95, 5 96, 1 99, 12, 9 14, 3 95, , 1 8, 1 8, Total _ , 931, 3 1 1, 25, 8 Monthly average 7, 75 77, , 5 1 Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor. 15

20 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Plant and equipment expenditures by nonagricultural business firms in 1949 were 6 percent less than in. Anticipated expenditures during 1st half of 195 are reported 8 percent below those of 1st half of 1949 while those for the year I96 are reported II percent below ANNUAL RATES* 25 2 TRANSPORTATION AND^ fe: ELECTRIC AND GAS : UTILITIES I MANUFACTURING AND MINING ! nd Half I96 SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND u.s. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS : Third quarter... _. Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter.. Second quarter Third quarter. Fourth quarter. _ 195: First quarter 3 Second quarter 3 Second half 3 _ I Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal] Total 1 5,2 8, 19 6,63 19, 23 18, 12 16, 9 19, 32 21, 64 17, 84 18, 64 17, 48 18, 52 16, 44 17, Manufacturing 1,93 3,4 3,21 8,34 7,25 6,74 8,36 9,28 7,4 7,52 6,76 7,32 6, 76 6, Mining Transportation Railroad ,32 1, ,32 1,64 1,44 1,52 1, , 1,4 84 Other Electric and gas utilities ,68 3, 14 2, 94 2,76 3,4 2,72 3,12 3,16 3,56 2, 96 3,24 2, 78 Commercial and miscellaneous f 1,85 2,49 1,48 5,39 5, 12 4,48 5,44 5,76 5,4 5, 16 5,4 5,28 4,68 4,72 4,26 1 Excludes agriculture. 2 Commercial and miscellaneous composed of trade, service, finance, and communication. 3 Figures for 195 are based on anticipated capital expenditures. NOTE. These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Figures for are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 1,,. Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).

21 NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES New corporate issues showed a seasonal rise in the 4th quarter of the year but were far below the total for the 4th quarter of SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Proposed uses of net proceeds Estimated net proceeds Total New money Plant and equipment Working capital Retirement of debt and stock ' 1939 quarterly average quarterly average 1946 quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average " Third quarter... Fourth quarter - : First quarter _ Second quarter.. - Third quarter Fourth quarter ' First quarter.... Second quarter..... Third quarter Fourth quarter ,689 1,617 1,748 1,52 1,374 2,311 1,769 1,817 1,352 2,54 1, 195 2,475 1,6 1, ,148 1,491 1, , 1,511 1,493 1,87 1, , , , , , , Includes small amount for other purposes. 3 Preliminary estimate. NOTE. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.

22 INVENTORIES AND SALES Sales of manufacturing and trad^ concerns, after allowance for seasonal variation, rose moderately in February. Manufacturers' and wholesalers' inventories showed practically no change during the month. BILL IONS OF DOLLARS 2 INVE Ml ORiES 1 > L J*9f**^ WHOLESALE 2 I MONTHLY AVERAGE INVEf y/ ** /.,.~^s, L...v. T( )RIES 7 RETAIL =.,- «* O 1 1 i 1 1 1! 1 1 i l i 1 1 I I95C) I I I II 1 I! i 1 l l 1 l l i i l ! 1 I I96 BILL IONS OF DOLLARS MONTHLY AVERAGE ' INVE ^1T ORIES \j / ^J^ / * IL ES MANUFACTURERS * \\ > -r-^ SE.- ***". **"**.. ~*N * *. ''--... '-^-VVv *** PERCE MT OF AVERAGE DEPARTMENT STORES S ' fl XL //INVEf T( )RIES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED * ^,. '""' t /,^*»...-** x/^-^,,/ XX s 1 I 1 1 L i J 1 I i I l 1 i l i l ! 1 i J l 1 I 1 I II I i i I l ! 1 1 i i 1 I 1 I SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM January February March April _ May _ June July _ August _ September October November December 6 January 6 February 6 Wholesale Retail Manufacturers Inventories * Sales 2 Inventories 1 Sales 2 Inventories l Sales 2 3,175 3,684 4,638 6,665 8,653 9,511 9,31 9,464 9,479 9,293 9,33 9, 153 9,2 9,91 9,61 9, 186 9, 137 9, 113 9,31 8,976 9,2 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 4 2,55 4,273 4,983 6,61 7,754 8,355 7,511 7,723 7,68 7,89 7,422 7,539 7,718 7, 158 7,522 7,518 7, 12 7,553 7,291 7, 194 7,586 5,532 7,361 7,543 11, , , ,698 14, , , 7 14, , , , ,932 14, , , , , 84 13, 883 3,54 5, 277 6,315 8,358 9, 99 1, 837 1, 682 1,611 1, 76 1, 724 1, 814 1, 759 1, 684 1, 549 1, 669 1, 856 1, 678 1, 63 1, 53 1, 84 1, 99 11,465 2, 98 18, 39 24, , , 66 3, , 49 34, 48 34, , 18 33, , 25 32, , , 6 3, 744 3, 547 3, , 16 31, 1 5, 1 12, , , , 76 18, , , 88 18, , , , , 99 17, 11"4 18, , , 85 17, , 84 17, 58 17, 7 Book value, end of period. Monthly average for year and total for month. Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for month and retail book value of inventories, end of period. All dollar figures, except for retail sales, have been revised and do not agree with data published prior to October Preliminary estimates. Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Department stores Inventories 3 Sales =1, seasonally adjusted

23 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Exports in February recovered o part of their sharp January decline. Imports fell but apparently only because of the shortness of the month, since imports per working day maintained or recent expanding levels. MILLIONS'OF DOLLARS 1,6 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,6 1,2 1, J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J J A * RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS. * RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY. I Millions of dollars] Exports 1 Imports * Excesi of exports monthly average monthly average - _..« monthlv average _ 1947 monthly average monthlv average 1949 monthly average 1949: January Febru ary March April Mav June...._.. July August...._. September October November ' _ «December 247 1, ,278 1,54 1, 1, 14 1,43 1, 177 1, 166 1,92 1, : January February., Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas. 1 Recorded general meichandise imports. Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy. 19

24 NATIONAL INCOME PURCHASING POWER Notional income, after declining during each quarter of 1949, turned up in 1st quarter of 195, according to preliminary data. The increase represented a rise in compensation of employees and proprietors' income CORPORATE PROFITS AND <: : : >: : : :':': : : : INVENTORY VALUATION ' '< ' ' '' ' '' ''' >:?:::;: ADJUSTMENT SAT I ON PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (except as noted) : Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter Second quarter- Third quarter Fourth quarter. 195(): First quarter * Total national income * Compensation of employees [Billions of dollars] Proprietors' (business, professional, farm) and rental income Net interest Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Total Annual rates, seasonally adjusted Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data, NOTE. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding ! Profits before taxes * Inventory valuation adjustment Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).

25 CORPORATE PROFITS Preliminary estimates indicate that the improvement in profits which began in the last half of 1949 has continued into I96, ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 4 3 2!! UNDISTRIBUTE D PROFITS H:K:J::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::^^^ ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::H :: S: SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED) [Billions of dollars] Corporate profits before taxes Corporate tax liability Total Corporate profits after taxes Dividend payments Undistributed profits _ , Annual rates, seasonally adjusted : Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter -. Second quarter.. Third quarter.. _._ Fourth quarter * _ : First quarter Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data. NOTE. No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment. taxes and inventory valuation adjustment. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted) See p. 2 for profits before 21

26 PERSONAL INCOME Personal Income reached an all-time high in February as payments on the veterans 1 dividend were stepped up. Farm income declined as a smaller volume of crops were placed under loan. 25 ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED *TERMINAL LEAVE BOND CASHING STARTED IN SEPTEMBER, 1947; NATIONAL INSURANCE DIVIDEND PAYMENT STARTED IN JANUARY, 195 F M A 195 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Total personal income [Billions of dollars] Salaries, wages, and other labor income Proprietors' (business, professional, farm) and rental income Dividends and personal interest Transfer payments ' January February^ March April May June- July.. August September October November December 195: January _ February Annual rates, seasonally adjusted Includes veterans' insurance dividend $5.4 billion, annual rate (or $45 million, monthly total) in January and $9.5 billion annual rate ($8 million, monthly total) in February. 2 Preliminary estimate. NOTE. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce.

27 CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING Payment of the special insurance dividend to veterans during 1st quarter in I96 distorted disposable personal income. It accounted for most of the increase of $9 billion (annual rate). Expenditures increased by only $1 billion, indicating that the insurance dividend was being spent slowly. Consumer saving was temporarily high. 25 BILLFONS OF DOLLARS 25 ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED I PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES. ^^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED). [Billions of dollars] Disposable personal income * Less: Personal consumption expenditures Equals: Personal saving , Annual rates, seasonally adjusted : Third quarter Fourth quarter.. - -_ 1949: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter _ 195: First quarter 2 _ Income less taxes. " K;: intjii.rs hy Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data. NOTK. -Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 23

28 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Personal consumption expenditures in 1st quarter of 195 were back to the peak rate of 4th quarter of, according to preliminary estimates. Increased expenditures for durables and services since were partially offset by decreased expenditures for nondurables. 2 ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 2 I SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT A.S NOTED). COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Personal consumption expenditures Total Nondurable goods Durable goods Services 1939_ _ Annual rates, seasonally adjusted : 1949: 195: Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter First quarter J _ Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data. NOTE. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce.

29 PER CAPITA INCOME" Per capita disposable income (including veterans 1 insurance dividend) increased in 1st quarter of I96, both in terms of current dollars and in real purchasing power, according to preliminary estimates. ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED CURRENT DOLLARS I I I t I I I I **CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS* PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE = I96 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR (EXCEPT AS NOTED). COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS _ : Third quarter.. Fourth quarter > 1949: First quarter.. Second quarter. Third quarter Fourth quarter- 195: First quarter 4 _ Per capita disposable personal income * Current dollars dollars 3 $ ,65 1,82 1,119 1, 194 1,32 1,281 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1, 328 1,328 1,34 1,285 1,267 1,269 1,323 $ , 125 1,262 1,314 1,45 1,389 1,342 1,282 1,32 1,297 1,35 1,319 1,315 1,298 1,284 1,292 1,36 Consumers' price index* = Not adjusted for seasonal variation Income less taxes. 2 Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base =1. 3 The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from December 1941-February This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. The unadjusted ;index will be found on page 3, 4 Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers based on incomplete data. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. 25

30 AVERAGE HOURLY EAE>NIN Hourly earnings for durable goods industries showed lift partly because of the new minimum rates. 'GS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES le change in February. But nondurable earnings increased DOLLA RS PER HOUR DURABLE MANUFACTURING J ^r^ -^*^ S /,. ^» DOLL/ *RS PER HOUR NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING DOLLARS* ' _, / S~^ r=m ' J CURRENT DOLLARS S^ CURRENT DOLLARS 1.2 MO l i I i [ i i i i i l i i l 1 i i i I l l 1 l l } J J II l l i i l 1 it i II BUILDING CONSTRUCTION 1.3 RETAIL TRADE. 2.,J 1.2 f r DOLLARS* fz^/^*^*^ 1.9 -</* ' DOLLARS*/^/ ** ' f**^ / ^* CURRENT DOLLARS 1. ^ /*^*"^ CURRENT DOLLAF s 1.7.9!! i 1 1 i ! ! t I 1 1! i i M II I SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR * NOT AVAILA3LE PRIOR TO JANUARY [Selected industries J ] All manufacturing Current ' dollars dollars 2 Durable goods manufacturing Current dollars dollars 2 Nondurable goods manufacturing Current dollars dollars 2 Building construction Current dollars dollars 2 Current dollars Retail trade dollars monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average monthly average 1949 monthly average : January - February March _ April -... May June July August September. October November December 4 195: January 4 _ February 4 $ $ $ Production and related workers. 3 Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on base = 3 Not available. 4 Preliminary estimates. 26 $ $ $ See note. 3 to table on page 25. $ $ $ $ Source: Department of Labor,

31 DOLL 65 AVERAGE WEEKLY EAE»NIN / Mthough weekly earnings of $59.43 in February for inchistries manufacturing durable goods were about the same as in January, there were divergent trends within the group. In nondurable goods industries, weekly earnings reached a new record high of $ ass PER WEEK DURABLE MANUFACTURING DOLL ARS PER WEEK 6 r GS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING y v -y] y^-ci _* _ j DOLLARS yx/» mm RRENT DOLLARS Sss^V DOLLARS* ^ ^*s^,^-s/^^ CURR NT DOLLARS -%. s**/**s ^\^r^ ^ S 45 4 Til II 1 M 1 M 1 1 l I 1 1 l 1 l I t II 1 I'M 1 1 I'll ' 1 _L i U 1 I I I I i ii I l l i i i II I 1? BUILDING CONSTRUCTION DOLLAF s is' ^t\ /-*NF ^svu k ft RETAIL TRADE ^/~f ^ DOLLARS* DOLLARS ^V. ^^^^^ ^ 65 ^ CURRENT C OLLARS I -^ J 1 L i L 1 I 1 1 tj 1 t t...l I i LI I 1 J_ i LI J J_ ! L I 1 I l I l i 1 1 ( 1 11 i U I 1 1 M SOURCE : DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISORS [Selected industries J All manufacturing Current dollars dollars 3 Durable goods manufacturing Current dollars 1-18 (lollnrh 3 Nondurable goods manufacturing Current dollars dollars 3 Building construction Current dollars dollars 2 Retail trade Current dollars dollars * 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average monthly average _ monthly average monthly average monthly average : January February March April May _. June July August- September OcUbor _._. Nov miber!)t»(!i nibor 4 HIM): Jnm iirv 4 _! '«*}» unrv 4 $ $ " * I MI»ri.*iltit'i.irin and related workers. 1 * wi»'n< <fn )ani divided by eoiibumers' price index on the * N*it f»vhiiiit> «, ( g ) $52. <if» f>7., r > 58. H.'t f>8. -Hi r>7. na 57. 'JJ f> S'J 57. ;u 57. SO r>s. r»9 5«S, 17, r )(i, h-j 5<J.!,'> r»ti. 'H f>!l. -\? t ( :r ) ( a ) $5r». :ir» J 5S. (',7 5K f5 5K, } 1 57, S,,'i5 5K. 1M 5S. 7 1 f>. 22 5, 12 57, (i8 f». -IS f)h. Of> r»i, 8 $ $ , nw HHS- 1. See note 3 to'table on page 25. ( s ) a $ «$ ( 8 ) ( s ) $ $ ( s ) ; H» mriit)ntit of Lnbor, 27

32 FARM INCOME Formers* cash receipts in February, usually a low month, were substantially smaller than in January, both for crops and for livestock products. Total February receipts were nearly 1 percent smaller than in February lilllons OF DOLLARS *INCLUDES CASH FARM INCOME FROM MARKETING AND GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 1939 monthly average _ monthly average 1942 monthly average _ monthly average monthly average monthly average,. _ 1947 monthly average - monthly average 1949 monthly average. 1949: January February March.... April May!... June... July August - September October.. November December 195: January 4 _ February 4 Farm income (millions of current dollars)» , 34 1,765 1,857 2, 11 2,542 2, 69 2,39 2,383 1,783 1,973 1,85 1,944 2,53 2,177 2,417 2, 68 3, 139 3, 5 2, 326 2,254 1,625 Prices paid by farmers (incl. interest, taxes, and wage rates) = Farm income (millions of dollars) 8 1,54 1,924 2,271 2, 521 2, 544 2,638 2,733 2,69 2,38 2,47 1,838 2,13 1,888 1,984 2, 116 2, 244 2, 518 2, 717 3,34 3,211 2, 448 2,348 1,693 1 Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments. 2 Converted from the reported base, =1, to the base =1. 8 Farm income in current, dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, taxes, and wage rates, =1.- 4 Preliminary estimates. Source: Department!of k Agriculture,

33 CONSUMER CREDIT Charge accounts declined seasonally in February while automobile credit continued to rise. 25 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS END OF YEAR 1949 END OF MONTH SOURCE : BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] End of period Total consumer credit outstanding Total Instalment credit Automobile sale credit Other sale credit and loans Charge accounts Other consumer credit * _ : January. February _ March. April May June July August September October November _ December 1 95; January February 2 7,969 5,378 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , 83 17, ,815 18, 779 IS, ;M7 IS, I2<> 4,424 2, 1 4, 6,434 8, 6 1, 89 8,424 8, 339 8,429 8, 63 8, 888 9, 123 9, 335 9, 622 9, 899 1, 166 1C), 441 1, 89 1, 839 1, 892 1, , 151 1,961 3, 144 1,965 1,996 2, 15 2,241 2,386 2,499 2,61 2,761 2,876 2,986 3,85 3, 144 3, 179 3,258 3,157 1,826 3,456 5,283 6, 639 7,746 6,459 6,343 6,324 6,389 6,52 6,624 6,725 6,861 7,23 7, 18 7,356 7,746 7,66 7,634 1,544 1,498 3,54 3,612 3,854 3,99 3,457 3, 169 3, 121 3,232 3,235 3,274 3, 123 3,64 3, 123 3, 197 3, 454 3,99 3,56 3,227 2,1 1,879 3,137 3,627 3,865 3,98 3,867 3,817 3,785 3,733 3,72 3, 727 3,74 3,767 3,781 3,86 3,92 3,98 4,2 4,7 1 Im'hidoH singlt'-payrmmt IOHIIH of coininomitl hunks and pawnbrokers and service credit. 3 Preliminary estimates. NOTK. Detail will not ww.s.sjirily add to totals because of rounding. Motirw: Board of UovernorH of the Federal Reserve System. 29

34 MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS Loans of commercial banks rose moderately in February. U.S.Government security holdings were about $ I billion lower JFMAMJJ ASOND JFMAMJJAS OND JFMAM. J j ASOND END OF YEAR 1949 I96 END OF MONTH SOURCE : BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL- RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, all commercial banks] End of period _ : January. February.. March April May June -. - July., _._ August.._ September. October November "December 195: January.... February 1 Total loans and investments Bank loans , Total Investments U.S. Government securities Other securities , o 1 Preliminary estimates. NOTE. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

35 MONEY SUPPLY The decline of $1.5 billion in the money supply in February wos primarily a reflection of seasonal factors. 2 MILLIONS Of DOLLARS TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY (EXCLUDING U.S. GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS) J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M U J A S O N D GOUMCJ HOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. [Billions of dollars] End of period , , ' _... " 1949: January. February _ March.-.. April Mav,. June July August -. -,-. September October November December _ 195: January _ _ February 3 Total money supply OS ion. r» Currency outside banks <) 25. 2/i. a 24, «1. 1) 2-1. <> Adjusted demand deposits * Time deposits 8 1 Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. 8. Government, less cash items in process of collection. 2 Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual navingh hankw, and Postal Savings System, 3 Preliminary estimates. NOTE. Detail will not necessarily add to totalh because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ,