National Fuel Gas Company 2018 Retired Employees Luncheon

Transcription

1 National Fuel Gas Company 2018 Retired Employees Luncheon

2 Safe Harbor For Forward Looking Statements This presentation may contain forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements regarding future prospects, plans, objectives, goals, projections, estimates of oil and gas quantities, strategies, future events or performance and underlying assumptions, capital structure, anticipated capital expenditures, completion of construction projects, projections for pension and other post-retirement benefit obligations, impacts of the adoption of new accounting rules, and possible outcomes of litigation or regulatory proceedings, as well as statements that are identified by the use of the words anticipates, estimates, expects, forecasts, intends, plans, predicts, projects, believes, seeks, will, may, and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. The Company s expectations, beliefs and projections are expressed in good faith and are believed by the Company to have a reasonable basis, but there can be no assurance that management s expectations, beliefs or projections will result or be achieved or accomplished. In addition to other factors, the following are important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in the forward-looking statements: delays or changes in costs or plans with respect to Company projects or related projects of other companies, including difficulties or delays in obtaining necessary governmental approvals, permits or orders or in obtaining the cooperation of interconnecting facility operators; governmental/regulatory actions, initiatives and proceedings, including those involving rate cases (which address, among other things, target rates of return, rate design and retained natural gas), environmental/safety requirements, affiliate relationships, industry structure, and franchise renewal; changes in laws, regulations or judicial interpretations to which the Company is subject, including those involving derivatives, taxes, safety, employment, climate change, other environmental matters, real property, and exploration and production activities such as hydraulic fracturing; financial and economic conditions, including the availability of credit, and occurrences affecting the Company s ability to obtain financing on acceptable terms for working capital, capital expenditures and other investments, including any downgrades in the Company s credit ratings and changes in interest rates and other capital market conditions; changes in the price of natural gas or oil; impairments under the SEC s full cost ceiling test for natural gas and oil reserves; factors affecting the Company s ability to successfully identify, drill for and produce economically viable natural gas and oil reserves, including among others geology, lease availability, title disputes, weather conditions, shortages, delays or unavailability of equipment and services required in drilling operations, insufficient gathering, processing and transportation capacity, the need to obtain governmental approvals and permits, and compliance with environmental laws and regulations; increasing health care costs and the resulting effect on health insurance premiums and on the obligation to provide other post-retirement benefits; changes in price differentials between similar quantities of natural gas or oil sold at different geographic locations, and the effect of such changes on commodity production, revenues and demand for pipeline transportation capacity to or from such locations; other changes in price differentials between similar quantities of natural gas or oil having different quality, heating value, hydrocarbon mix or delivery date; the cost and effects of legal and administrative claims against the Company or activist shareholder campaigns to effect changes at the Company; uncertainty of oil and gas reserve estimates; significant differences between the Company s projected and actual production levels for natural gas or oil; changes in demographic patterns and weather conditions; changes in the availability, price or accounting treatment of derivative financial instruments; changes in laws, actuarial assumptions, the interest rate environment and the return on plan/trust assets related to the Company s pension and other post-retirement benefits, which can affect future funding obligations and costs and plan liabilities; changes in economic conditions, including global, national or regional recessions, and their effect on the demand for, and customers ability to pay for, the Company s products and services; the creditworthiness or performance of the Company s key suppliers, customers and counterparties; the impact of potential information technology, cybersecurity or data security breaches; economic disruptions or uninsured losses resulting from major accidents, fires, severe weather, natural disasters, terrorist activities or acts of war; significant differences between the Company s projected and actual capital expenditures and operating expenses; or increasing costs of insurance, changes in coverage and the ability to obtain insurance. Forward-looking statements include estimates of oil and gas quantities. Proved oil and gas reserves are those quantities of oil and gas which, by analysis of geoscience and engineering data, can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be economically producible under existing economic conditions, operating methods and government regulations. Other estimates of oil and gas quantities, including estimates of probable reserves, possible reserves, and resource potential, are by their nature more speculative than estimates of proved reserves. Accordingly, estimates other than proved reserves are subject to substantially greater risk of being actually realized. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 10-K available at You can also obtain this form on the SEC s website at For a discussion of the risks set forth above and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from results referred to in the forward-looking statements, see Risk Factors in the Company s Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2017 and the Forms 10-Q for the quarter ended December 31, 2017, March 31, 2018, and June 30, The Company disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date thereof or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. 2

3 Integrated Model Working as Designed NFG Integrated Business Mix (1) 200.0% 6 Year Price Performance vs. Peer Group 150.0% UGI ATO Midstream 35% Utility 19% E&P 46% 100.0% 50.0% 0.0% NJR SR SWX EGN MDU COG NFG EQT -50.0% % SM WLL RRC SWN (1) Based on share of fiscal 2017 total consolidated adjusted EBITDA. 3

4 Net Oil and Gas Production Oil and Gas Increased Production & Gathering Driving Earnings Growth Adjusted Operating Results ($ per share) E 2019E $4.00 $3.00 $3.30 Gathering Revenues ($MM) $1.50 $3.30 to $3.40 Exploration & Production $3.30 to $3.60 Exploration & Production Pricing (1) $54.77 $58.65 $60.00 Crude Oil ($/Bbl) $2.95 $2.50 $2.35 Natural Gas ($/Mcfe) $2.00 $0.47 Gathering Gathering 3,235 ~3,000 ~2, $1.00 $0.80 Pipeline & Storage Pipeline & Storage California (Mbbl) Appalachia (Bcf) $- (1) Realized price after hedging. $0.55 Utility Utility FY 2017 Actual FY 2018 Forecast FY 2019 Forecast $108 ~$110 $130-$140 4

5 Dividend Track Record 48 Years Consecutive Dividend Increases 116 Years Consecutive Payments $1.70 per share 3.1% yield (1) $2.9 Billion Dividend payments since 1970 $0.19 per share (1) As of September 6, Annual Rate at Fiscal Year End 5

6 Business Update New Supply/Transco Pipeline Expansion Project Will provide Seneca with ~300,000 of incremental transportation capacity to premium markets Seneca added 3 rd drilling rig in May % annual net Appalachian natural gas production growth rate expected through 2022 FERC Waiver Order on Northern Access Project In August, FERC found that NY DEC waived its authority to act on NFG s water quality certification (WQC) for the project 6

7 New Pipeline Project Provides Consolidated Benefit Project expected to provide long-term earnings uplift to Seneca, Supply Corp. & Gathering Supply Corp. Est. in-service date: late calendar 2021 Est. capital cost: $280 million Est. Annual Revenues: ~$32 million Seneca 300,000 Dth/day of new pipeline capacity on Supply Corp./Transco systems Delivery Point(s): Transco Zone 6 interconnections Gathering All incremental Seneca volumes will flow through NFG gathering facilities 7

8 Seneca Net Production (Bcfe) 3 rd Drilling Rig to Further Production Growth 300 Appalachia Near- Term Growth Strategy West Coast (California) ~18 ~ E 2019E rig development program, with new rig added in WDA to focus on Utica Atlantic Sunrise capacity expected to be available September 2018 New EDA Utica development with production starting in FY19 Layer-in firm sales to take advantage of attractive regional pricing Gross production growth will benefit NFG s Gathering segment 8

9 Northern Access Waiver Order FERC issued Order on August 6, 2018 finding that NY DEC waived its water quality certification (WQC) authority by failing to timely act February 3, 2017 Received FERC Certificate April 7, 2017 NY DEC issued Notice of Denial of WQC August 6, 2018 FERC found that NY DEC waived WQC by failing to timely act August 14, 2018 NY DEC filed for Rehearing of FERC Waiver Order We remain committed to the project and are working to finalize remaining permits and approvals as the legal process plays out 9

10 Near Term Growth Strategy Exploration & Production Gathering Pipeline & Storage Utility 3 rig program designed to grow production & gathering throughput at 15-20% CAGR over next 5 years Utilize existing gathering infrastructure to support WDA Utica development & increase returns Maintain focus on living within cash flows Pursue and execute opportunities for system expansion: FM100 Project Empire North Project Line N expansions Northern Access Invest in modernization of Supply Corp. system, which will result in rate base growth Continue to invest in pipeline replacement and modernization: Improve system safety and reliability Seek timely recovery through tracker mechanism in New York Maintain focus on O&M spending levels 10

11 National Fuel is Positioned for the Long-Term Upstream Midstream Downstream Strategically and responsibly develop our vast, high quality acreage in the Marcellus and Utica shales Seek opportunities to expand gathering and transmission pipeline infrastructure for Seneca Resources and other 3 rd party producers Continue safe and reliable service for our 740,000+ utility customers while remaining focused on controlling expenses 11

12 Continuing Focus on Corporate Responsibility Commitment to Safety Commitment to Environmental Stewardship Commitment to Our Communities 12

13 Investments in Safety ($MM) Our Commitment to Safety System Modernization Employee Safety $150 $125 $100 $75 $50 $25 $554 million invested since 2013 OSHA Recordable Injury Rates Pipeline & Storage Utility $78 $30 $125 $76 $132 $78 $48 $50 $54 $104 $42 $115 $51 $62 $64 Seneca Resources 5 Year Rate Reductions Regulated Companies 54% 27% $

14 Higher Energy Costs in the Northeast 2017 Average Retail (Residential) Price of Electricity (cents per kilowatthour) $0.180 $0.189 $0.129 $0.143 National Average Pennsylvania New York New England Source: US Energy Information Administration (2018) 14

15 Average NY Monthly Residential Natural Gas Bill $150 $140 $130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 16% lower than NYS average since % lower than NYS average since % lower than NYS average in 2017 National Fuel New York Average (1) Based on average use of 1,000 therms per year. Excludes Rochester Gas & Electric and New York Electric and Gas for 2017, as the respective companies have not yet reported average bill information. 15

16 Average NY Residential Winter Bill $1,077 $1,043 46% reduction since winter $746 $733 $706 $746 $616 $596 $420 $502 $563 $579 Note: As of September 13, Normalized winter bills are not actual bills experienced by customers. This data represents the average bill that a residential customer would have paid, if weather was at normal heating degree days during the winter heating season (November through March). The bill amounts shown above are inclusive of taxes. 16

17 Average PA Monthly Residential Natural Gas Bill $150 $140 $130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 15% lower than PA average since % lower than PA average since % lower than PA average in 2017 National Fuel Pennsylvania Average (1) Based on average use of 1,000 therms per year. 17

18 Average PA Residential Winter Bill $1,082 46% reduction since winter $637 $656 $641 $616 $623 $542 $577 $587 $442 Note: As of September 13, Normalized winter bills are not actual bills experienced by customers. This data represents the average bill that a residential customer would have paid, if weather was at normal heating degree days during the winter heating season (November through March). The bill amounts shown above are inclusive of taxes. 18

19 Our Commitment to the Environment Water and Fluids Management Air Quality and Emissions Seneca Resources Water Operations Fiscal 2017 Utility GHG Emissions from Physical Plant (1) thousands metric tons of CO 2 e 100% 75% Recycled Water % 285 Produced Water Recycled in Appalachia Used in New Shale Well Completions (1) As reported under EPA Subpart W. 19

20 Electricity Net Generation (Million Kilowatthours) CO 2 Emissions (Million Metric Tons) Natural Gas Generation Driving Reductions in Emissions Annual U.S. Power Generation and CO 2 Emissions Net Power Generation (%) 5,000,000 CO 2 Emissions 14% since ,000 9% 4,000,000 Renewables Renewables 5,000 4, % 19% 53% 3,000,000 Nuclear 3,000 2,000,000 Natural Gas 2,000 17% 31% 1,000,000 1, % Coal and Petroleum 32% Source: US EIA August 2018 Monthly Energy Review - 20

21 National Fuel Virtual Video Tour To watch the remainder of the Virtual Video Tour: 1. Go to 2. Scroll to the bottom of the page, and click on National Fuel s Virtual Video Tour 21

22 Please Vote Critical material sent by will contain this RED CHECKMARK 22

23 Thank You See you next year!