First Quarter 2017 Earnings Call Presentation May 9, 2017
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1 First Quarter 2017 Earnings Call Presentation May 9, 2017
2 FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS This presentation contains forward-looking statements. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, included in this presentation that address activities, events or developments that Antero Midstream Partners LP, and its subsidiaries (collectively, the Partnership ) expect, believe or anticipate will or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements. The words believe, expect, anticipate, plan, intend, estimate, project, foresee, should, would, could, or other similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. However, the absence of these words does not mean that the statements are not forward-looking. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, forward-looking statements contained in this presentation specifically include expectations of plans, strategies, objectives, and anticipated financial and operating results of the Partnership and Antero Resources Corporation ( Antero Resources ). These statements are based on certain assumptions made by the Partnership and Antero Resources based on management s experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, anticipated future developments and other factors believed to be appropriate. Such statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of the Partnership, which may cause actual results to differ materially from those implied or expressed by the forward-looking statements. These include the factors discussed or referenced under the heading Item 1A. Risk Factors in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016 and in the Partnership s subsequent filings with the SEC. The Partnership cautions you that these forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause these statements to be inaccurate, and readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such statements. These risks include, but are not limited to, Antero Resources expected future growth, Antero Resources ability to meet its drilling and development plan, commodity price volatility, inflation, environmental risks, drilling and completion and other operating risks, regulatory changes, the uncertainty inherent in projecting future rates of production, cash flow and access to capital, the timing of development expenditures, and the other risks discussed or referenced under the heading Item 1A. Risk Factors in the Partnership s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016 and in the Partnership s subsequent filings with the SEC. Our ability to make future distributions is substantially dependent upon the development and drilling plan of Antero Resources, which itself is substantially dependent upon the review and approval by the board of directors of Antero Resources of its capital budget on an annual basis. In connection with the review and approval of the annual capital budget by the board of directors of Antero Resources, the board of directors will take into consideration many factors, including expected commodity prices and the existing contractual obligations and capital resources and liquidity of Antero Resources at the time. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made, and the Partnership undertakes no obligation to correct or update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law. Antero Midstream Partners LP is denoted as AM and Antero Resources Corporation is denoted as AR in the presentation, which are their respective New York Stock Exchange ticker symbols. 1
3 Antero Completion Size (lbs/ft) Marcellus Completion Evolution Antero is continuing to increase proppant intensity in 2017 primarily utilizing 1,750 and lb/ft completions in the Marcellus 3,000 2,750 5,000 4,000 1,750 lb/ft Completions 1,500 lb/ft Completions Testing higher proppant loads in 2017 Early results are encouraging 2,500 3, Bbl/ft 2,250 1,750 0 Days 42 Bbl/ft 36 Bbl/ft 1,500 1,250 Supports 2.0 Bcf/ type curve and 81 PUD bookings at YE2016 Per Well Frac Size Design (lb/ft) 1,250 1,500 1, Bbl/ft 32 Bbl/ft Supports 1.7 Bcf/ type curve and historical reserve bookings 2,500 Completion Start Date 2
4 Recent Marcellus Well Results Wellhead EURs from Antero s recent 1,750 pound per foot completions have continued to outperform legacy style completions and range from 2.0 to 2.4 Bcf/ at the wellhead Recent 4-well pad with 2,500 lb/ft completions potentially extends high-graded core areas Antero - 2 Well Average Advanced 1,750# Completion Wellhead: Processed: C2 Recovery: Lateral: 2.3 Bcf/ 2.9 Bcfe/ 3.7 Bcfe/ 11,567 Net F&D Cost: $0.38/Mcfe Southern Rich High-Graded Core Average 2.0 Bcf / Wellhead EUR Dry Gas High-Graded Core Average 2.2 Bcf / Wellhead EUR Antero - 4 Well Average Advanced 1,700# Completion Wellhead: Processed: C2 Recovery: 2.4 Bcf/ 2.9 Bcfe/ 3.6 Bcfe/ Antero - 10 Well Average Advanced 1,700# Completion Lateral: Net F&D Cost: 10,017 $0.39/Mcfe Wellhead: 2.1 Bcf/ Processed: 2.6 Bcfe/ C2 Recovery: 3.3 Bcfe/ Lateral: 10,468 Net F&D Cost: $0.35/Mcfe Antero - 4 Well Average Advanced 2,500# Completion Wellhead: Processed: C2 Recovery: 2.2 Bcf/ 2.5 Bcfe/ 3.1 Bcfe/ Lateral: 5,365 Net F&D Cost: $0.47/Mcfe (1) (1) 1. Represents actual completion costs and Q AFE drilling costs. Antero Acreage Antero Horizontal Marcellus Wells Industry Horizontal Marcellus Wells 3
5 Capturing Midstream Value Chain Participating in the full value chain diversifies and sustains Antero s integrated business model $5.0 billion organic project backlog and ~$1.0 billion downstream investment opportunity set Upstream Downstream AM Assets AM/MPLX JV Assets Potential AM Opportunities ~$800 Million JV Project Backlog FRACTIONATION NGL PRODUCT PIPELINES TERMINALS & STORAGE (ETHANE, PROPANE, BUTANE) WELL PAD LOW PRESSURE GATHERING COMPRESSION HIGH PRESSURE GATHERING ~$4.2 Billion Organic Project Backlog GAS PROCESSING (50% INTEREST) REGIONAL GATHERING PIPELINE (15% INTEREST) Y-GRADE PIPELINE ~$1.0 Billion Downstream Investment Opportunity Set PDH PLANT LONG HAUL PIPELINE END USERS INTERCONNECT 4 Note: Third party logos denote company operator of respective asset.
6 Undrilled Locations Largest Core Drilling Inventory In Appalachia Large, repeatable core drilling inventory that averages 8,000 in lateral length and includes 43% of all liquids-rich undrilled locations in Appalachia 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 3,502 Undrilled Core Marcellus and Utica Locations (1)(2) Core - NE Pennsylvania Dry Locations Core - SW Marcellus and Ohio Utica Dry Locations Core - Marcellus & Ohio Utica Liquids-Rich Locations Core Liquids-Rich Appalachia Undrilled Locations (1) J 8% E 6% F 6% A 4% D 3% K H 3% 2% I 2% 43% * 1,967 1,937 C 10% B 13% 1, ,161 * * * 548 * - Avg. Lateral Length AR A B C D E J H K F L I 8,081 6,429 6,355 6,225 8,601 7,762 5,758 8,594 9,262 7,550 7,085 8, Location count determined by Antero technical review of geology and well control to delineate core areas and peer acreage positions both drilled and undrilled. Pro forma for all acreage acquisitions to date. 2. Peers include Ascent, CHK, CNX, COG, CVX, EQT, GPOR, NBL, RICE, RRC and SWN. * Undrilled location count net of acreage allocated to publicly disclosed joint ventures. 5
7 HIGH GROWTH MIDSTREAM THROUGHPUT Low Pressure Gathering (MMcf/d) Compression (MMcf/d) 1,800 1,600 1,400 1, Marcellus Utica 1,658 1,522 1,431 1,3031,353 1,124 1, , Marcellus Utica , High Pressure Gathering (MMcf/d) Fresh Delivery (MBbl/d) 1,800 1,600 1,400 1, Marcellus Utica 1,134 1,197 1,2161,1951,2221,253 1,351 1,437 1, Marcellus Utica Note: Y-O-Y growth based on 1Q 16 to 4Q 17. 6
8 Internal Rate of Return Organic Growth Drives the Business Organic growth strategy provides attractive returns while avoiding the competitive acquisition market and reliance on capital markets Industry leading organic growth story ~$2.3 billion in capital spent through 9/30/2016 on gathering and compression and water assets Assumes midpoint guidance EBITDA for 2017 (excluding JV) 4.4x Capital expenditures to buildout EBITDA 10-year identified project inventory of $5.0 billion 24% weighted average project IRR AM Builds at 3x to 6x EBITDA vs. Other MLPs that Drop Down/Buy at 8x to 12x+ EBITDA 10-year identified investment opportunity set Organic Adjusted EBITDA Multiple vs. Drop Down Multiples 12.0x 10.0x 8.0x 6.0x 4.0x 2.0x 0.0x 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 6.9x 6.1x 4.5x 4.4x Drop Down Median: 8.8x E Drop Down AM Organic EBITDA Multiple (1) Antero Midstream Project Unlevered IRRs Note: Precedent data per IHS Herold s research and public filings. 1. Antero Midstream organic multiples calculated as gathering and compression and water capital expended through Q3 of each respective year divided by Adjusted EBITDA, assuming month lag between capital incurred and full system utilization. 2. Selected gathering and compression drop down acquisitions since 1/1/2015. Drop down multiples are based on NTM EBITDA. Source: Public company filings and press releases. 35% 25% LP Gathering Wtd. Avg. 24% IRR 25% 15% HP Gathering 20% 10% Compression 40% 30% Fresh Delivery 25% 18% 15% 15% Advanced Wastewater Treatment (2) Processing/ Fractionation $5.0 B 35% - 40% 10% - 12% 20% - 25% 10% - 12% 1% - 3% 15% - 17% 7
9 Distribution Per Unit DCF Coverage Ratio and Leverage Ratio LONG TERM OUTLOOK THROUGH 2020 Antero Midstream s $2.7 billion organic opportunity set and visible cash flow growth allow it to target a 28% to 30% distribution CAGR through 2020 and maintain leverage in the low 2-times $3.00 $2.50 Distribution Guidance Distribution Target DCF Coverage 3.0x 2.5x $2.00 Stable Leverage $ x $ x $1.00 $ x DCF Coverage >1.25x 1.5x $ x $0.00 Note: Future distributions subject to Board approval. 2016A 2017 Guidance 2018E Target 2019E Target 2020E Target 0.5x 8
10 APPENDIX 9
11 ANTERO MIDSTREAM EBITDA RECONCILIATION EBITDA Reconciliation Three months ended March 31, Net income $ 42,918 $ 75,091 Interest expense 3,704 8,836 Depreciation expense 23,823 27,536 Accretion of contingent acquisition consideration 3,396 3,526 Equity-based compensation 5,972 6,286 Equity in earnings of unconsolidated affiliates (2,231) Distributions from unconsolidated affiliates Adjusted EBITDA $ 79,813 $ 119,044 Interest paid (1) (3,444) (9,187) Cash reserved for payment of income tax withholding upon vesting of Antero Midstream Partners LP equity-based compensation awards (2) () (1,500) Cash reserved for bond interest (3) (1,552) Maintenance capital expenditures (4) (5,808) (15,903) Distributable cash flow $ 69,561 $ 90,902 Total distributions declared $ 43,252 $ 67,306 DCF coverage ratio 1.6x 1.4x 10
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