TREVOR LLANWARNE GOVERNMENT ACTUARY UNITED KINGDOM
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1 TREVOR LLANWARNE GOVERNMENT ACTUARY UNITED KINGDOM May 2012
2 ABOUT ME MORTALITY SOLVENCY II CURRENT ISSUES FOR UK ACTUARIES NEW STRATEGY FOR UK ACTUARIAL PROFESSION
3 ABOUT ME UK Government Actuary since 2008 UK Focus
4 WHAT TYPE OF WORK DO WE DO? UK Social Security Policy Advice Social Welfare/Finance Overseas Other UK including Modelling/Assurance
5 MORTALITY
6 Period life expectancy at age 65, Males Source: Eurostat
7 Period life expectancy at age 65, Females Source: Eurostat
8 Period life expectancy at age 65 Source: Eurostat
9 Projected smooth percentage changes in death rates between 2009 and 2010 by age, UK Source: Office for National Statistics, UK
10 Longevity projections, Males, UK Source: IMF
11 Actual and projected period expectations of life at birth, Males, 2009 and 2060 Country UK The Netherlands Sweden France (2010) Switzerland (2050) Canada (2005/07, 2056) USA (2007, 2050) Australia (2007) Japan Source: Published life expectancy and projections from country s national statistics website March 2011 UK Interim life table UK 2010-based projections published October 2011
12 Actual and projected period expectations of life at birth, Females, 2009 and 2060 Country UK The Netherlands Sweden France (2010) Switzerland (2050) Canada (2005/7, 2056) USA (2007, 2050) Australia (2007) Japan Source: Published life expectancy and projections from country s national statistics website March 2011 UK Interim life table UK 2010-based projections published October 2011
13 Longevity risk and fiscal challenges in selected countries (in percent of 2010 nominal GDP) Country Household total financial assets (2010) Present discounted value of needed retirement income General Government Gross Debt (2010) Gap Col(1) Col(2) Increase in NPV given 3-year increase in longevity US to to 53 UK to to 59 France to to 54 Germany to to 74 Hungary to to 45 Sources: IMF Range of values cover replacement rate of 60% or 80% replacement rate to retirees aged 65 or older UN longevity assumptions for
14 Share of pension entitlements linked to life expectancy in selected countries Source: OECD 2011 Includes links to life expectancy through defined-contribution plans
15 SOLVENCY II
16 The Financial Climate
17 TRUST! It takes decades to build trust and a few seconds to destroy it.
18 The European Union project, bringing together: 27 Countries 23 Languages an economic Union a Social Union the 30 Countries in European Economic Area different Legal Systems 2011 The Actuarial Profession
19 2011 The Actuarial Profession Worldwide Actuarial Community
20 Europe and its Insurance Industry More than 500m people 20% of Gross World Product Significant exporter in the world 5,200 insurance companies 41% of world insurance premium More than 1,000 billion of premiums 2011 The Actuarial Profession
21 The Three Pillar Approach Pillar 1 Quantitative requirements Balance sheet (including technical provisions) Minimum capital requirement (MCR) Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) Pillar 2 Qualitative requirements and supervisory review Governance, risk management and required functions Own risk and solvency assessment Supervisory review process Pillar 3 Reporting, disclosure and market discipline SFCR and RSR Disclosure Transparency Support of risk-based supervision through market mechanisms Market-consistent valuation Risk Based requirements Business governance Risk-based supervision Disclosure Transparent markets 2011 The Actuarial Profession
22 What is Solvency II? Market consistent valuation of assets Risk-based assessment of regulatory capital Own risk and solvency assessment Risk management system + Market consistent valuation of liabilities Or discounted mean Governance plus risk margin Reporting
23 What is Solvency II? Own risk and solvency assessment Market consistent valuation of assets Risk-based assessment of regulatory capital Risk management system Market consistent valuation of liabilities Or discounted mean + Governance Reporting plus risk margin
24 INTERNAL MODELS Expected UK All other EU Between 50 and 100 insurers Under 50 insurers
25 2011 The Actuarial Profession
26 2011 The Actuarial Profession
27 SOLVENCY II AND PENSIONS???
28 CURRENT ISSUES FOR UK ACTUARIES
29 MEMBERSHIP Non - UK Members (8999/21626) 40% Non UK Students (5668/10454) 55%
30 COMPETITION CFA OTHER PROFESSIONS ACADEMIC
31 UK MARKET CHANGES DB Pensions Post Solvency II Reserved Roles Risk, Long-Term Care, Modelling/Assurance International
32 New UK Strategy
33 INSTITUTE AND FACULTY OF ACTUARIES STRATEGY Education Member Support Regulation Public Affairs Learned Society (Advancing Actuarial Science) Quality support for an evolving profession
34 Education
35 Member Support
36 Regulation
37 Public Affairs
38 PROCESS FOR INFLUENCE 1 Do a Quality Job (GAD uses 6 client service commitments) 2 Requests for Extra Jobs 3 Offer Data 4 Requests for Opinions 5 Influence TOO MANY THINK THE REVERSE
39 Advancing Actuarial Science
40 International
41 SKILLS & VALUES PROFESSION S NEW STRATEGY VALUES Core Values Trustworthy - Reliable - Demonstrating Integrity Professional - Delivering quality and consistency - Evidence-based Behavioural/Aspirational Collaborative - Working in partnership -Team player Engaging - Open-minded - Valuing others opinions - Insightful and challenging - Transparent - Accessible - Confident and robust
42 CONCLUSION WHAT IS AN ACTUARY? UNCERTAINTY AND RISK MATHEMATICAL/STATISTICAL LONG-TERM FINANCIAL MODELLING & ANALYSIS, CERTIFICATIONS & PROFESSIONAL CODE & STANDARDS ASSURANCE QUALITY AND CONSISTENCY
43 Trevor Llanwarne Government Actuary United Kingdom
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