UNU-EHS. Institute for Environment and Human Security. Klimaveränderungen, Risiko und Fließgewässerentwicklung. Juan Carlos Villagrán de León

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1 Klimaveränderungen, Risiko und Fließgewässerentwicklung Wasserbau-Seminar Essen 11. Oktober 2007 Institute for Environment and Human Security Juan Carlos Villagrán de León Risk Management Section UNU-EHS

2 INTRODUCTION What is a disaster? A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources.

3 Number of events

4 IMPACTS Number of people killed by disasters ( ) 300, ,000 IO (Tsu) 200, , ,000 50,000 0 Kobe (Eq) Katrina (Hu)

5 IMPACTS Number of people affected by disasters (millions) ( ) Kobe (Eq) Droughts, Asia Katrina (Hu) IO (Tsu)

6 IMPACTS Total amount of reported economic damages in Billion US$ ( ) Kobe (Eq) Katrina (Hu) IO (Tsu)

7 CONCLUSIONS A disaster takes place when three factors are combined: 1. The settlement of communities in hazardous areas. 2. A way of development which has not been adapted to the presence of such hazards, in which vulnerabilities are constructed due to poverty, lack of norms, lack of experience, etc. 3. Deficiencies in coping capacities to reduce the impacts of such events, as well as to respond efficiently and in an opportune manner should the event take place.

8 CONCLUSIONS A conclusion: We can conclude that a disaster is the result of a long-term process related to the generation and enhancement of risks. Disasters are a reflection of the fact that some societies have not adapted their schemes of development to the environment which surrounds them.

9 FRAMEWORKS Some definitions regarding risks: Some examples Risk = Hazard * Vulnerability [La Red, Latin America] Risk = Hazard * Exposition * Vulnerability [Europe] Risk = Hazard * Vulnerability [ISDR] Coping Capacity Risk = Hazard * Vulnerability * Deficiencies in Preparedness [CIMDEN]

10 FRAMEWORKS Hazard: In some cases it is difficult to assess hazards due to lack of data! The probability that an event of destructive proportions takes place in a given place within a certain period of time. Hazards are seen as external factors in relation to risks.

11 FRAMEWORKS Vulnerability: Too many definitions for the same term! No consensus yet! Intrinsic condition of social nature, which makes a society prone to suffer damages due to a natural or social event. Vulnerabilities are seen as internal factors in relation to risks.

12 RISK ASSESSMENT Relative Vulnerability Disaster Risk Index (UNDP 2004) Is measured as the national human exposure to individual hazards. It is defined in terms of the ratio between the number of people exposed to a natural hazard and the number of people who died in consequence of it. A high relative mortality due to hazards of natural origin implies a high vulnerability.

13 Disaster Risk Index Relative Vulnerability Picture

14 RISK ASSESSMENT Risk assessment: megacities

15 RISK ASSESSMENT Education Sector: The Sector Approach In charge of the education of children and youth. It uses schools, desks and blackboards, computers, as well as human and consumable resources (paper, chalk, etc.). The Basic Life-lines Sector: Health Sector: in charge of health of population. It uses clinics and hospitals, specialized medical equipment; as well as doctors, nurses, and consumable resources (gloves, photographic plates, chemicals, medicines, etc.). Deals with potable water, sewage, and drainage. It accomplishes its goals through the use of specific infrastructure, machinery, personnel, as well as some consumable products (chemicals). Energy Sector: Associated with the generation and distribution of energy where it is needed. It requires infrastructure; machinery and instrumentation; as well as human and other resources.

16 Telecommunications Industry Finance Government Commerce Education Health RISK ASSESSMENT Scale of consideration National State or Province District or Municipal Local or Community Single unit or house Human being Housing Basic Lifelines Human condition Gender Functional Physical Economic Administrative Sectors Public infrastructure Energy Components of vulnerability Environmental

17 RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ASSESSMENT: standing issues Development of methods to evaluate: Hazards, Vulnerabilities, Coping capacities? Deficiencies in preparedness? Methodologies to integrate the three components of risks. Defining a common vocabulary and common techniques and approaches to thematic analysis. Methodologies to evaluate those factors which are allowing for the generation of risks.

18 MODELING RISKS THE PROGRESS OF VULNERABILITY Pressure and Release model: Blaikie et al. ROOT CAUSES DYNAMIC PRESSURES UNSAFE CONDITIONS DISASTER HAZARDS Limited access to: Power Structures Resources Ideologies: Political Systems Economic Systems Lack of: Local institutions Appropriate skills Local investments Local markets Ethical standards in public life Macro Forces: Rapid population change Rapid urbanization Arms expenditure Debt repayment schedule Defirestratiuon Deforestation Decline in soil productivity Physical Environment: Dangerous locations Unprotected buildings and infrastructure Local Economy: Livelyhoods at risk Low income levels Social Relations: Special groups at risk Lack of local institutions Public actions and institutios: Lack of disaster preparedness Prevalence of endemic disease Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability Earthquake High winds (cyclone / hurricane / typhoon) Flooding Volcanic eruption Landslide Drought Virus and pests

19 ACTUAL RISK Prevention Preparedness Mitigation

20 RISK MANAGEMENT A framework From risk assessment to: Managing the hazards through preventive measures. Managing vulnerabilities through mitigation. Enhancing, improving preparedness through early warning for example. But finding out how best to do it considering existing setting.

21 RISK MANAGEMENT Prevention Flood management: Levees. River channel management. Land-use norms. But, are we solving the problems?

22 RISK MANAGEMENT Mitigation Structural measures for houses: Houses on stilts. Houses with elevated floors.

23 RISK MANAGEMENT People-centred early warning

24 Current status of Early Warning Systems in Central America CISP-ECHO CARE ECHO ASDI-CNE SNET-BID OEA-ECHO ASDI CONRED GTZ-ECHO GTZ-CONRED GTZ-AA CONRED-MAGA- INSIVUMEH FUPAD PNUD-COPECO GAA ECHO SOL. INT. ECHO CNE-UNICEF ECHO CHF & National Agencies UNDP-CONRED

25 SOME FINAL THOUGHTS No matter how hard we try, sometimes its difficult to convince some people.

26 SOME FINAL THOUGHTS So, are we aware of all the risks we are facing, or just aware of some of them? It seems our perceptions of risk vary from country to country, from culture to culture, and from age to age... Oh, the things we do as kids...

27 So, the next time you may be in this situation, think about the risks you may be facing, you never know... Thank you very much for your kind attention!