Werte schaffen durch Innovation: Pharma Prof. Dr. Wolfram Carius LMU München,

Transcription

1 Werte schaffen durch Innovation: Pharma 2020 Prof. Dr. Wolfram Carius LMU München,

2 External Situation: Market environment and Competition General Economy Political Environment 1) Market environment 2) Competition Society Technology WHAT DOES IT MEAN IN and 2020 Prof. Dr. Wolfram Carius, Vortrag LMU

3 The pharma industry has, and is, undergoing fundamental changes Historical Growth Drivers Historical 5yr Global CAGR: 6.7% Increased power of market access bodies, HTA advisors, increased complexity at sub-national level Increased variety in cost containment Evolving generics and biosimilars dynamics Parallel trade dynamics Future Growth Drivers Forecast 5yr Global CAGR: 5-8% under pressure Unprecedented patent cliff Macroeconomic factors driving costcontainment targeting pharma Generic penetration will continue to grow More financially potent launches in the next 5 years vs. the last 10 Pharmerging markets will grow in attractiveness Diversification into broader healthcare business models Changing decision makers impact pharma business/commercial model Prof. Dr. Wolfram Carius, Vortrag LMU

4 New drugs are mainly parenterals and orals Source: IMS, Tufts CSDD Prof. Prof. Dr. Wolfram Dr. Wolfram Carius, Carius, Vortrag Vortrag LMU LMU

5 Generics moving towards 50% volume but value share <15%: protected growth down to 12% The fundamental challenge Top 8 Markets Generics Generics Value: 9.4% 11.4% Volume: 31.2% 5.3% Value: 12.8% 9.8% Volume: 42.8% 6.8% Original Brands Original Brands Value: 82.2% 20.6% Volume: 53.2% 15.8% Value: 78.6% 4.4% Volume: 42.8% -0.5% Protected Protected Value: 76% 22.5% Volume: 42.3% 16.5% Value: 75.1% 12.3% Volume: 32.9% 7.6% Source: IMS MIDAS mat_12_2009 SU, USD/MNF, LCD/MNF Prof. Dr. Wolfram Carius, Vortrag LMU

6 The top 8 markets globally will lose ~45% of current protected brand value to 2014 About $146Bn at risk which could help Payers arrest growth Top 8 markets: Estimated value of patent expiry $136Bn [2009 Protected sales: $299Bn] 45 $42.8Bn SALES ($ Billions) $26.7Bn Alna Aricept Seretide Oxycontin Actos Zyprexa Seroquel Plavix Lipitor $27.6Bn Lexapro Singulair $14.0Bn $24.8Bn Cymbalta Nexium Source: IMS Health MIDAS Market Segmentation December 2009 Products shown have >$2Bn sales in 2009 *Assumptions based on no price erosion following generic entry to the market. Expiry dates: MAT December Prof. Dr. Wolfram Carius, Vortrag LMU

7 US will take the biggest hit in generic exposure over the next 5 years Global: Estimated value of patent expiry $145.8Bn [2009 Protected sales: $322Bn] SALES ($ Billion) $28.7Bn $45.0Bn $30.1Bn $15.6Bn $26.5Bn US Japan EU5 All Others Source: IMS Health MIDAS Market Segmentation December 2009 *Assumptions based on no price erosion following generic entry to the market. Expiry dates: MAT December Prof. Dr. Wolfram Carius, Vortrag LMU

8 High debt burden and deficit augment calls for greater efficiency in public healthcare financing Gross Financial Liabilities (% of GDP) Finland Switzerland New Zealand Italy Belgium Austria Denmark Luxembourg -2 OECD Public Indebtedness 2010 Greece France Canada Germany Portugal Netherlands Spain Norway Czech Rep -4-6 Structural deficit (% of GDP) OECD= -6.7% Ireland Poland -8 US OECD= 97.4% UK 70% -10 Source: OECD December 2009 Prof. Dr. Wolfram Carius, Vortrag LMU

9 Biologics & emerging markets will play a driving role Prof. Dr. Wolfram Carius, Vortrag LMU

10 Global Pharma growth will start to recover in 2013 Mature markets at the lower end: Pharmerging leads Global Pharma Historical Market Dynamics & Current Economic Environment 1,200 Global Sales and Market Growth 30% Pharmaco challenges Mature Markets CAGR ,000 25% US 2-5% VALUE SALES US $ BN % 15% 10% VALUE GROWTH % (US $) Japan 2-5% Germany 1-4% France 0-3% Italy 1-4% Canada 2-5% 200 5% Spain 2-5% (f) 2011 (f) 2012 (f) 2013(f) 2014(f) Global USA EU5* Japan Tier 1 Pharmerging Tier 2 Pharmerging Tier 3 Pharmerging DSE Region 0% UK 1-4% S. Korea 6-9% Mature 2-5% Source: IMS Health Market Prognosis, Sep 2010; *DSE Region: 12 countries Prof. Dr. Wolfram Carius, Vortrag LMU

11 Growing importance of emerging markets Pharma Sales CAGR Percentage Total pharma market, 2012 USD billions Emerging markets Brazil Russia India China Turkey Mexico Developed markets Germany UK North America SOURCE: IMS Market Prognosis; McKinsey analysis Prof. Dr. Wolfram Carius, Vortrag LMU

12 A new world order will evolve through 2014, with China becoming #3 UK to drop out of top 10: volatility in group 2004 Rank 2009 Rank 2014 Rank 1 United States 1 United States 1 United States 2 Japan 2 Japan 2 Japan 3 France 3 Germany 3 China 4 Germany 4 France 4 Germany 5 Italy 5 China 5 France 6 United Kingdom 6 Italy 6 Brazil 7 Canada 7 Canada 7 Italy 8 Spain 8 Spain 8 Canada 9 China 9 United Kingdom 9 Spain 10 Brazil 10 Brazil 10 India 11 Mexico 11 Russia 11 Russia 12 Australia 12 Mexico 12 United Kingdom 13 South Korea 13 India 13 Venezuela 14 India 14 Australia 14 Turkey 15 Netherlands 15 Turkey 15 South Korea 16 Belgium 16 South Korea 16 Australia 17 Poland 17 Greece 17 Mexico 18 Turkey 18 Poland 18 Argentina 19 Greece 19 Netherlands 19 Poland 20 Russia 20 Belgium 20 Greece Source: IMS Health Market Prognosis, Sep Market size ranking in constant US$ Prof. Dr. Wolfram Carius, Vortrag LMU

13 The European market will deliver significantly lower growth % Contribution to global growth, Const US$ Market share CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH (CONST US$) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 31% 7% 12% 29% US EU5 Japan Pharmerging Tier % 6% 7% 22% Canada Rest of Europe S. Korea Rest of World Pharmerging Tiers % S. Korea 2% Japan 10% Rest of the world 6% Rest of Europe 6% EU5 14% United States 34% Canada 2% Source: IMS Health Market Prognosis, Sep 2010 Prof. Dr. Wolfram Carius, Vortrag LMU

14 Prof. Dr. Wolfram Carius, Vortrag LMU

15 Curriculum Vitae Prof. h.c. Dr. Wolfram Carius Wolfram Carius, born 1961 in Zweibrücken/Germany, Prof., Ph.D., is Member of the Board of Managing Directors of Boehringer Ingelheim GmbH since January 01, 2009, responsible for the Corporate Board Division Human Ressources and Operations. He received his degree as pharmacist and his doctorate in pharmaceutical technology from the Saarland University. In 2009 he was awarded the scientific title of Professor h.c. from the University of Biberach. Wolfram Carius began his professional career as a manager of quality control at Dr. Karl Thomae GmbH in Biberach. In the following years he took over different functions in plant development, management and technology for Boehringer Ingelheim in Germany, Japan and Brazil. Before joining the Board he was Senior Vice President Biopharmaceuticals and member of the managing board of Boehringer Ingelheim Pharma GmbH & Co KG, Germany and from September 2005 on he was responsible for the worldwide Pharmaceuticals Production of Boehringer Ingelheim GmbH as Corporate Director. Presently he is additionally active as: Member of the controlling board, scientific advisor and professor at the University of Biberach, Germany Advisory board member of the National Institute of Bioprocessing, Research and Training (NIGRT, Ireland) Board member of the association of research driven pharmaceutical industry in Germany (VFA) Member of the foreign trade association of the chemical industry in Germany (VCI) Member of the global Pharma Manufacturing Forum (PMF)