UrRISK03. Table 6 SRA 311. Cole Porter CLP5432. Sam Houston SLH6543

Transcription

1 SRA 311 Fall 2010 UrRISK03 Cole Porter CLP5432 Sam Houston SLH6543 Table 6 Edward J. Glantz 3/7/14 9:22 AM Comment [1]: Cover page includes course, semester/year, assignment title, student author names/ , and table #. NO page numbers on title page Filename is assignment title and student id s: UrRisk03_abc123_def456.docx Edward J. Glantz 3/7/14 9:22 AM Comment [2]: Include classroom seating table number for paper return

2 SRA 311 Fall 2010 Table of Contents IV. Threat Statement... 1 V. Risk Assessment Results... 2 Threat/Vulnerability Pairs... 2 Existing Risk Controls... 2 Likelihood: Discussion and Evaluation... 3 Impact: Discussion and Evaluation... 4 Risk Rating... 4 Recommended Controls... 5 VI. Summary... 5 References... 7 Attachment 1: Threat Analysis... 8 Attachment 2: Vulnerability Analysis... 9 Attachment 3: Zoning Map Attachment 4: Risk Scenario Likelihood Attachment 5: Risk Scenario Impact Attachment 6: Risk Matrix Attachment 7: Risk Rating Attachment 8: Summary Table Edward J. Glantz 3/7/14 9:28 AM Comment [3]: Word Tool: Table of Contents on new page. Word s Table of Contents will automatically insert page numbers. Apply Use Word formatting Styles (e.g., Heading 1) to section headers so they will appear in the Table of Contents. NOTE: Begin page numbering on first page after title page. Use Word tool to insert page numbers. Select not on first page option. Tip: To make all the formatting styles appear in Word (i.e., without having to look each up manually), I clicked Change Styles, Style Set, and then Reset to Quick Styles from Template PS: I used Normal style for table of content title (i.e., this title does not need to appear in the list)

3 IV. Threat Statement According to the NIST document, Threat sources include natural threats, human threats, and environmental threats (NIST , 2002). The threat sources for our risk assessment are natural (i.e., earthquake), and human. Attachment 1 clearly summarizes all threat sources, motivations, and threat actions. Since an earthquake vulnerability is a natural threat, the sources include the nearest fault lines. They consist of the San Andreas Fault, the Garlock Fault, and the Owens Valley Fault (USGS, 1). The associated threat action is the resulting earthquake that can damage the foundational structure of the hotel as well as the hotel s physical infrastructure. Human threat sources include placement and securing of objects within hotel rooms during an earthquake. The threat action are falling objects, such as furniture, electronic devices, or hanging wall objects, that block exits or cause damage and injury. A second threat action is items placed by guests. A third threat action is harm to guests and employees not following safety procedures during an earthquake. The final threat action is the location of hotel supplies and equipment. Edward J. Glantz 3/7/14 9:01 AM Comment [4]: Word Style: Heading 1 Edward J. Glantz 3/7/14 9:02 AM Comment [5]: Already provided by the intext cite Edward J. Glantz 3/7/14 10:51 AM Comment [6]: Do NOT use first or second person in a formal report. Here: this Edward J. Glantz 3/7/14 11:10 AM Comment [7]: All attachments, figures, and tables must be cross referenced in a paragraph. Attachments are numbered in the order they are presented and cross referenced in the paper. Edward J. Glantz 3/7/14 9:05 AM Comment [8]: This claim could not be supported, so better not to make (i.e., do not make grandiose claims) Edward J. Glantz 3/7/14 9:29 AM Comment [9]: Do NOT use pronouns in professional writing. They are too difficult for the reader to process. Here, replace with the noun (e.g., These faults. ) Edward J. Glantz 3/7/14 9:39 AM Comment [10]: This is NOT an APA in-text cite. Basic rules at 560/02/ Normally (author, year). For quotes, figures, and tables, the page ( for web sources) number is also included (author, year, p. 1). If no author, brief title is used. APA Here: (Major Faults of California, 2010, p. 1) 1

4 V. Risk Assessment Results The following risk scenarios were developed after researching and considering threats and vulnerabilities for the Wasco, California Best Western Hotel during an earthquake: 1. Hotel foundation and structure damage by earthquake 2. Unsecured objects falling during an earthquake, especially top heavy items 3. Poorly mounted objects that fall during an earthquake 4. Breaking glass and mirrors, and resulting shards, during an earthquake. 5. Poor earthquake procedures and documentation Threat/Vulnerability Pairs The threat is an external danger. In this risk assessment, the threat is damage resulting from an earthquake. Vulnerability is a flaw in the internal system that could lead to a security breach, when exposed to Edward J. Glantz 3/7/14 9:47 AM Comment [11]: Good: Lists are preceded with an explanatory paragraph. To keep the list together with this paragraph, a page break was inserted before this section. Edward J. Glantz 3/7/14 11:11 AM Comment [12]: Used Style Heading 2 to make these appear as sub section in the table of contents the threat (NIST , 2002). In this risk assessment, the hotel is the internal system. Attachment 2 lists vulnerabilities, sources, and actions from the perspective of the hotel during an earthquake. During an earthquake, a flaw in a design or policy could result in damage or harm to the building, objects within the building, hotel guests and employees. Risk Scenario #1 s vulnerability is a design flaw in the hotel structure making the hotel not capable of withstanding the force of an earthquake. Risk Scenario s #2, #3, #4, and #5 share the vulnerability of unsecured objects falling and damaging property, guests, and employees. The source of these vulnerabilities is object placement by guests and employee. Finally, Risk Scenario #6 s vulnerability is poor or missing documentation concerning proper procedures during an earthquake. This vulnerability source is poor hotel management planning and preparation. Existing Risk Controls To counter the possibility of foundational failure in the event of an earthquake, the Best Western should meet building code regulations set forth by the California government. California law requires that any 2

5 structure built in a seismic Zone 4 after January 1st, 1975 must have an earthquake resistant design (California Codes, 2002). As shown in Attachment 3, Wasco California is located within Zone 4. Since the Best Western in Wasco, California was built in 2009; the hotel must already have these design controls in place (Best Western, 2010). Since no explicit documentation can be found regarding risk controls for unsecured or dangerous objects at the hotel, it is assumed that no controls are currently in place for this vulnerability. Finally, California law requires proper documentation regarding proper hotel emergency procedures (California Codes, 2010). Therefore existence of this documentation is also assumed to be in place. Likelihood: Discussion and Evaluation The likelihood of each vulnerability varies. Attachment 4 rates the likelihood of each vulnerability on a scale of high, medium, and low. This scale uses the likelihood definitions in Table 3.4 of the NIST document (2002, p. 21). The rated likelihood of a flawed hotel design structure is low due to the California building codes required for structures built in earthquake Zone 4. Since the soil structure is unknown, the possibility of the foundation of the hotel being unable to withstand an earthquake is rated medium. The likelihood of heavy or breakable items owned by guests falling or breaking is medium since it is not possible to predict where these items will be placed. Guests and staff not knowing or following earthquake procedures is also rated medium. Finally, the likelihood of poor or missing safety procedure documentation is rated low due to California regulation requirements. 3

6 Impact: Discussion and Evaluation Each vulnerability may impact the hotel property manager on a scale of high, medium, and low. This risk assessment uses the scale presented in Table 3.5, Magnitude of Impact Definitions, in the NIST document (2002, p. 21). Attachment 5 shows each vulnerability, threat, and potential impact. A flawed structure could lead to a partial or full building collapse. Therefore the impact level is high because it could destroy the Best Western at great harm to the people inside. For the same reasons, the impact of a flawed foundation is also rated as high. Edward J. Glantz 3/7/14 11:16 AM Comment [13]: This APA in-text cite is unique. Since the source is presented in the sentence, only the year (and in this case) and page number are put in parentheses. The page number is provided since a specific item is referenced in the source. The reader can find the table faster knowing the page number. Misplaced heavy or breakable objects could fall and hurt guests and employees. This impact is rated as medium because it won t stop the business from operating; however it could result in lawsuits. Guests and employees not following proper earthquake procedures could result in injury, however having proper documentation and procedures available would reduce this risk, and therefore the impact is rated as medium. Finally, having no documentation, or poor documentation, is rated as high because it would result in severe lawsuits to the hotel and could derail operation. Risk Rating Attachment 6 shows the three-by-three risk level matrix used from NIST The final results are shown in Attachment 7. Low impact ratings were assigned a value of ten, medium of fifty, and high of one hundred. High likelihoods were assigned a value of 1.0, medium of 0.5, and low as 0.1. The risk rating was calculated by multiplying the impact by the likelihood. A flawed design has a low risk rating with a value of ten. A flawed foundation was rated medium with a value of fifty. Falling objects Edward J. Glantz 3/7/14 11:24 AM Comment [14]: Professional writing has rules for numbers. Most small numbers are written in English. Exceptions: Decimals are written as numbers. Exception: Attachment, table, and figure cross references are written as numbers (and often bolded) 4

7 were rated as medium with a value of twenty-five. Guests and employees not following procedure were rated with a medium risk of twenty-five, and no documentation on procedures were rated low, with a value of ten. Recommended Controls The recommended controls for the hotel manager at the Best Western in Wasco, California mainly relate to unsecured objects. California laws and regulations already have controls in place regarding appropriate building construction and emergency procedures. Guests and employees should ideally follow these procedures in the event of an earthquake. In addition, it is recommended that heavy objects, such as furniture, are secured directly to the floor to reduce the risk of falling. It is also recommend that lighter items, such as lamps and televisions, are securely mounted to furniture. Free hanging objects should be removed to avoid the chance of falling. Finally, adding documentation is recommended regarding guest property placement and storage to reduce risk during an earthquake. This control transfers risk from personal property storage to the guests themselves. VI. Summary This risk assessment identified and addressed six risk scenarios. These scenarios frame the threats faced by the Best Western Hotel property managers. s threaten building foundations and structures during severe earthquakes. Objects are also a threat as they are susceptible to falling and breaking during an earthquake. Missing or poor documented earthquake safety procedures can increase risk impact during an earthquake. 5

8 The risk scenarios were assigned rated risk levels. The highest risk rating level of fifty was assigned to hotel foundation vulnerability being exploited during an earthquake. A complete list of recommended risk controls and implementation details are provided in Attachment 8. 6

9 References "Barclays Official California Code of Regulations." State of California, Web. 2 Oct < "Best Western Wasco Inn & Suites." Best Western, n.d. Web. 3 Oct < "California Codes Government Code Section " State of California, n.d. Web. 2 Oct < Klehs, Johan. "Homeowner s Guide to Safety." California Seismic Safety Commission, 1 July Web. 2 Oct < Edward J. Glantz 3/7/14 11:58 AM Comment [15]: These are not correct APA references. Basic rules at: 560/05/ All references appearing here must be cited intext in the preceding paper. Move non-cited references (if desired to include) to Atachment #: Supplemental Readings End-of-Text APA references are sorted by author last name. The year/date appears in parentheses immediately after authors name (n.d. is no date is known). Good: Web sources include URL s Bad: Does not include any sources from LionSearch "Major Faults of California." USGS Education. U.S. Department of Interior, Aug Web. 25 Sept < 7

10 Attachment 1: Threat Analysis Table 1 lists threat-sources (i.e., sources of danger), motivations (i.e., intentional or unintentional), and threat-actions (i.e., manifestation of danger) associated with an earthquake on the Best Western in Wasco, California. Table 1 Wasco, California Threat Sources, Motivations, and Threat Actions THREAT MOTIVATION ACTION Tectonic Plates Natural Movement Quaking of the earth Edward J. Glantz 3/7/14 11:38 AM Comment [16]: Attachments: 1) After reference page 2) Numbered with title 3) Include an introductory/explanatory paragraph Edward J. Glantz 3/7/14 11:39 AM Comment [17]: Word Tool: Insert Caption 1) Full captions are numbered, and from a source, required an in-text citation 2) Tables and figures are cross-referenced by number (e.g., Table 1 ) in the preceding paragraph Hotel foundations Weak foundational structure Building failure and sinking Hotel s physical infrastructure Inadequate design and construction Partial or full building collapse Objects in room Gravity and quaking causing objects to fall Objects fall and break and/or collide with tenants and staff. Persons in the hotel Inadvertent placement into dangerous areas Persons not taking precautions may suffer from head trauma from falling objects. Staff and Hotel Managers Disregard of safety Placing objects and property in unsecure locations, open to falling. 8

11 Attachment 2: Vulnerability Analysis Table 2 lists hotel vulnerabilities (i.e., weaknesses), sources, and vulnerability-actions (i.e., manifestation of exploited weakness) from the hotel perspective in the event of an earthquake affecting the Best Western in Wasco, California. Table 2 Vulnerability Source and Action VULNERABILITY SOURCE ACTION Flawed Design of Hotel Structure Cannot Withstand Foundation of the Hotel Cannot Withstand Heavy and/or breakable objects are placed in dangerous locations. No Proper Precautions Taken By Guests in Case of No Documentation or Procedure on Safety Hotel s physical infrastructure Hotel foundations Staff and Hotel Managers Persons in the hotel Staff and Hotel Managers Partial or full building collapse Building failure and sinking Placing objects and property in unsecure locations, open to falling. Persons not taking precautions may suffer from head trauma from falling objects. Placing objects and property in unsecure locations, open to falling. 9

12 Attachment 3: Zoning Map Figure 1 shows the Best Western in Wasco, California in relation to California earthquake zones. Figure 1 Damaging s in California (Klehs, 2005, p. 7) Edward J. Glantz 3/7/14 11:41 AM Comment [18]: Table captions usually appear above the table. Figure captions usually appear below the figure. Good idea to center figures. Good idea to center the captions 10

13 Attachment 4: Risk Scenario Likelihood Table 3 shows the likelihood of each risk scenario in the event of an earthquake from the perspective of the Best Western Hotel in Wasco, California. A complete risk scenario describes the alignment of a threat and corresponding vulnerability, given the perspective of a protector possessing a valued asset. Edward J. Glantz 3/7/14 11:42 AM Comment [19]: Word Tool: Cross Reference (only item and number option). RISK SCENARIO Flawed Design of Hotel Structure Cannot Withstand Table 3 Likelihood Analysis LIKELIHOOD Low In longer documents, it is easier to use Word s cross reference tool to insert Table 2. Word will fix the numbering if the referenced item s number changes (i.e., will change if another captioned item is inserted in the document) Foundation of the Hotel Cannot Withstand Heavy and/or breakable objects are placed in dangerous locations. No Proper Precautions Taken By Guests in Case of No Documentation or Procedure on Safety Medium Medium Medium Low 11

14 Attachment 5: Risk Scenario Impact Table 4 assesses the impact from earthquake risk scenarios (i.e., vulnerability/threat pairs) for the Best Western Hotel in Wasco, California. A complete risk scenario describes the alignment of a threat and corresponding vulnerability, given the perspective of a protector possessing a valued asset. Table 4 Impact Analysis RISK SCENARIO THREAT/VULNERABILITY IMPACT Flawed Design of Hotel Structure Cannot Withstand Foundation of the Hotel Cannot Withstand Heavy and/or breakable objects are placed in dangerous locations. No Proper Precautions Taken By Guests in Case of No Documentation or Procedure on Safety Partial or full building collapse Building failure and sinking Placing objects and property in unsecure locations, open to falling. Persons not taking precautions may suffer from head trauma from falling objects. Persons would not know what to do in the event of an earthquake. High High Medium Medium High 12

15 Attachment 6: Risk Matrix Table 5 is the risk scale used to determine the overall risk of each threat. The probability assigned for each threat likelihood level is assigned a number: 1.0 for High, 0.5 for Medium, 0.1 for Low. The value assigned for each impact level is assigned a number: 100 for High, 50 for Medium, and 10 for Low. These values are used in Table 6 to calculate overall risk rating. Table 5 Risk Scenario Likelihood/Impact Matrix (NIST , 2002, p. 25) Edward J. Glantz 3/7/14 11:45 AM Comment [20]: Numbers here since referencing numbers in the table below 13

16 Attachment 7: Risk Rating Table 6 shows the final risk rating of each earthquake risk scenario (i.e., threat/vulnerability pair), sorted by risk rating. The risk rating is calculated by multiplying the value associated with the likelihood and impact rating (e.g., medium likelihood = 0.5, and high impact = 100). The rating values are provided in Table 5. Table 6 Risk Scenario Rating of Likelihood and Impact RISK SCENARIO LIKELIHOOD IMPACT RISK RATING Edward J. Glantz 3/7/14 11:49 AM Comment [21]: This is an important table. The risk scenarios (threat/vulnerability pairs) were each rated for impact and likelihood. Ranking risk requires us to combine the impact and likelihood evaluations. This table shows one method to rank final risks by assigning values to impact and likelihood, and multiplying Foundation of the Hotel Cannot Withstand Heavy and/or breakable objects are placed in dangerous locations. No Proper Precautions Taken By Guests in Case of No Documentation or Procedure on Safety Flawed Design of Hotel Structure Cannot Withstand Medium High 50 (Medium) Medium Medium 25 (Medium) Medium Medium 25 (Medium) Low High 10 (Low) Low High 10 (Low) 14

17 Attachment 8: Summary Table Table 7 summarizes the earthquake risk scenarios (i.e., threat/vulnerability pairs) and recommended risk controls, sorted by highest to lowest action priority. Risk Scenario Foundation of the Hotel Cannot Withstand Heavy and/or breakable objects are placed in dangerous locations. No Proper Precautions Taken By Guests in Case of No Documentation or Procedure on Safety Flawed Design of Hotel Structure Cannot Withstand Risk Rating 50 (Medium) 25 (Medium) 25 (Medium) Table 7 Summary Table of Risk Scenarios and Controls Recommended Control Follow CA state building codes Bolt objects to floor, tables, and counters. Establish guest property placement guidelines 10 (Low) Follow CA building and safety codes 10 (Low) Follow CA state building codes Action Priority High Medium Medium Low Low Required Resources Engineers, architects, seismologists, capital, contracts. Screws, washers, labor. Paper, online documents Documents and pamphlets Engineers, architects, seismologists, capital, contracts. Responsible Party Property Manager Property Manager and Hired Staff Property Manager Property Manager Property Manager Maintenance Requirement Period checking of code compliance Perform period evaluations of objects and bolted holdings N/A Period checking of code compliance Perform period evaluations of reinforcement Edward J. Glantz 3/7/14 11:52 AM Comment [22]: This is an important table as it summarizes recommended controls for all of the risk scenarios (threat/vulnerability pairs). Review: Risk control strategies can be a combination of: 1) Avoid (change operational processes) 2) Accept (do nothing) 3) Transfer (insurance, outsource) 4) Mitigate (requires a plan, such as disaster recovery) 15

18 Grading Rubric - Short Essay Peer Reviewer: Assign total points here for composition, contribution, subject knowledge and APA citations. Write specific comments into student s paper. Section SRA Author1 Name (Print): Author2 Name (Print): Peer Reviewer1 Name (Print): Peer Reviewer2 Name (Print): Peer Reviewer Points Max Possible Points Instructor Total Points Item 25 Composition - Business professional writing with no grammatical or spelling errors. 25 Contribution - Improves class learning by providing new information or approach to topic under discussion. 25 Subject Knowledge - Knowledge of course content is illustrated by integrating concepts into the essay. Does it appear that you know what you are writing about? Are you aware of aspects of this covered in class? 15 Captions, References and MLA Citations - Reference to article, book, or magazine where new information or approach is provided, and appropriate citation in text. Must follow APA format!!! In-Text: must include page number (assume 1 if not known) Works Cited: single-spaced (double between citations) with hanging indent Captions: any tables or figures must include complete captions (blank) 10 In-class peer review - Thorough and complete with specific comments (i.e. NOT "good job" or "great opening") for what has been done well or what could be done to improve the paper (blank) 100 Total 16