Pakistan. Country Perspective: Muhammad Yousaf

Transcription

1 Country Perspective: Pakistan Muhammad Yousaf The views expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Governors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.

2 EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS FOR RESPONSE AND RECOVERY, EMERGENCY PLANNING AND EXPERIENCES Pakistan Perspective Pakistan is in transition from a predominantly rural and agrarian to an industrial, service based upon urban economy. The economy has been growing at an impressive average of more than 6 % over the past few years due to macroeconomic policy directions pursued by the government. Natural disasters threaten sustained economic growth by causing shocks, as the October 2005 earthquake did. The quake caused a loss of 5.2 billion USD which is staggering when compared to national budget for which was about USD 25 billion. This amount was much higher than the total allocations for social sector development. Similarly, the economic damages suffered from 14 major floods, since 1947, have been estimated as USD 6 billion. The drought of demonstrated that this phenomenon could have serious political, economic and social repercussions. Sustainable development in agriculture, livestock, water resources, food security and environment sectors is seriously threatened by droughts, particularly in Balochistan, Southern Punjab, Tharparkar and D.I.Khan in NWFP. The drought of 2001 reduced the economic growth rate to 2.6 % as compared to an average growth rate of over 6 %. Therefore, it is not a coincidence that areas which experience disasters frequently, are amongst the poorest regions; e.g. Balochistan, Tharparker, Cholistan and Northern areas. In order for Pakistan to ensure continuity of current economic growth in the medium to longer terms, it must address risks posed by natural disasters. Plains of Pakistan, particularly in the provinces of Punjab and Sindh, have been traditionally vulnerable to recurring floods. The last flood causes considerable dam age to life and property occurred in However, this one hazard against which an effective protection network of dykes and flood water regulatory infrastructure has been built over the years. Contingency plans and ear4ly warning mechanisms are in place and refined periodically. Flash floods also occur in upper plains adjacent to river catchments areas. Rising incidence of loss of life and property indicates relative un-preparedness to such hazards. The coastal belt of Pakistan, particularly along Sindh is occasionally battered by.cyclones. In 1999 a cyclone ravaged large tracts in coastal districts. The coastal areas are also inundated by torrential rains, as in 2003 with a similar impact. Owing to changing regional weather patterns, there is also prolonged incidence of droughts in the poverty ridden arid regions of the country. The drought phenomenon was most pronounced during period when it spread

3 across 68 districts in the four provinces. The drought hazard has taken a massive toll in environment and economic loss dimensions. Past history also shows vulnerability to tsunami and other sea based hazards. In 1935 an earthquake of 8.5 Richter scale triggered a tsunami along the present coastline of Pakistan killing about 4000 peoples. Pakistan was also by the Earthquakes in the past. The October 2005 earthquake was the worst one in the history of the country. It led the nation to establish long term policies, institutions, plans and programs. We also witnessed occurrences of viral diseases in the past. Hazards of fire, traffic and industrial accidents has occurred in the country. Emergency services for these types of hazards require much reorganization and capacity building. Pakistan is also a nuclear capable country. It has satisfactory nuclear safety standards. It is our basic fault lines or dynamic pressure exerted by socio-economic poverty, rising population stress on finite resources, poor state of environmental health, unplanned development multiplying hazard impact and a poor awareness of hazard prevention that enhance our vulnerabilities. Specific Early Warning and Vulnerability Status Besides risk' knowledge, Bonn Protocol on Early Warning emphasizes upon the presence of a viable disaster early warning capability, that the system should have the means to communicate early warning to those who must be warned, that the recipients should ACT in time. EW capacities that exist in terms of time in Pakistan with regards to the major natural disasters in the light of what the Bonn Protocol stresses upon are summarized. Floods There is a well developed system in place based on multiple inputs of PMD, WAPDA and Indus Water Commission for floods early warning. Federal Flood Commission (PMD) serves as the nerve centre for collecting, collating, interpreting and timely dissemination of EW. All the stakeholders receive timely information and it is disseminated to their representatives in the vulnerable districts through governance line channels The information is passed down to vulnerable communities through the government tiers. Vulnerable communities were at times not forewarned when breach(es) were affected in the protective dykes in earlier floods as a measure of larger damage control.

4 Communities keep abreast of flood hazard progression through extensive media coverage and they have developed their own EW mechanisms over the years. Flash Floods There is no system in place to warn vulnerable communities or urban areas from the flash flood hazard. Recent examples have shown. a very poor awareness to the threat and delayed relief response on part of government and relief agencies Vulnerability Status Low to high. against flash floods Excessive Rains and Sea Based Hazards. These hazards normally occur along the Sindh and Baluchistan coast. Excessive Rains PMD systems provide adequate early warning against excessive rains in the coastal regions or lower Sindh, Karachi included. Information not communicated to the vulnerable urban and rural communities in time allowing evasive actions. Hazard upgraded into disaster due to (1) poor government response mechanisms and over reliance on Army to deal with such situations, (2) urban development blocking flood water escapes (3) disaster insensitive development like LBOD which either experiences extensive breaching as it blocks natural drainage (4) relative political intensity to rural regions hazards Vulnerability Status. Medium to High Cyclones Despite some gaps in the PMD's indigenous capacity viz cyclone hazard, its regional networking allows minimum 3-4 days of cyclone early warning with fairly accurate prediction of likely impact area. The response to this hazard has traditionally been poor and outcomes disastrous for the reasons that apply to excessive rain hazard. Vulnerability Status. High to very high Tsunami Despite the present limited indigenous EW capacity, regional networking allows up to 2 hour EW and a fairly accurate prediction of likely impact area. However, capacity up gradation is occurring under the Clinton Initiative which will allow 4-6 hours EW.

5 Vulnerability Status. Extremely high with the present level of preparedness, Earthquake No EW capacity, at present or in the foreseeable future. However, October 05 EQ has raised awareness and vulnerable regions have been identified through followup studies. Vulnerability Status. Extremely high given non-adherence to EQ resistant building codes. At many places such codes do not exist amid challenging terrain environment in most EQ vulnerable regions. Drought. Systems in place, and being further up graded to warn against onset of drought. However, vulnerability arises due to relative socio-economic poverty of drought vulnerable regions. Long term drought mitigation programs like DERA 1 or planned DERA II can reduce latent vulnerabilities. Governance and Disaster Management Government in its national, provincial, district and sub-district resolutions remains the most significant actor in disaster management and response. Managing natural disasters, emergency hazard management and law and order situations constantly occupies governance at all levels. It has dedicated institutions for this purpose though there is a dire need for capacity upgrading. The scale of disasters as indicated by the October 2005 EQ, their variety spanning natural and man instigated disasters, and frequency of occurrence, has created an incompatibility between the existing institutions and the challenges that loom. Steps being taken for creation of NDMA and the realization of this inadequacy have prompted most provincial governments to take meaningful DM capacity building measures, though much more needs to be done. The significance of legislative framework in this context remains very significant. The Legal Framework for Disaster Management National Calamities (Prevention and Relief Act) 1958 It appoints Provincial Relief Commissioner (also member of provincial Board of Revenue) who provides for maintenance and restoration of law and order in areas affected by calamities and for extending relief to the affected population. It essentially allows for : Resource mobilization for handling calamites: hiring of vehicles, earthmoving machinery, requisition of premises or maintenance of relief camps etc.

6 Survey of damages and losses occurred as a consequence of a calamity and compensate those affected by the calamities. Ensure preparedness for emergencies by setting up a system of alarm and undertake situation specific preventive measures. Conclusion. It has a relief and compensation orientation and does not look at disaster management beyond that. The Act essentially caters for recurring damages occurring from the flood hazard. It is implemented by the revenue staff, from province to district and down to tehsils (sub-district). Emergency Services Ordinance It allows creation of emergency services to deal with threats to the public from modern forms of warfare grouped under the term `terrorism'. A national council has been set up to deal with and to guide and monitor the performance of these services. Roles of provincial and district governments have been defined in implementing the Ordinance. Local Government Ordinance It provides governance guidelines for the devolved district government, headed by the Zilla (district) Nazim. It is reviewed from DM context, as follows: District Governance District Nazim is entrusted with organizing relief activities and with land use zoning, and in ensuring implementation of bye laws dealing with public and private housing and construction standards. DCO has coordination functions to perform, which includes those for disaster management. Village/neighborhood council deals with water supply, sanitation, watch and ward, tree plantation, care of handicapped and destitute. Developments after the Earthquake 2005 A reactive, emergency response approach has remained the predominant way of dealing with disasters in Pakistan till now. The Calamity Act of 1958 was mainly 'concerned with organizing emergency response. A system of relief commissioners at provincial level was established. An Emergency Relief Cell (ERC) in the Cabinet Secretariat was responsible for organizing disaster response by the federal government. The awareness of policy makers, media, civil society, NGOs, UN agencies and other stakeholders remains low about disaster risk management. The situation is relatively better with regards to flood and drought mitigation. A number of government agencies and NGOs have been implementing mitigation measures for these hazards. However, until recently, country lacked a systematic approach towards disaster risk management.

7 Realizing the importance of disaster risk reduction for. sustainable social, economic and environmental development, the GOP has embarked upon establishing appropriate policy, legal and institutional arrangements, strategies and programs to minimize risks and vulnerabilities. In this regard, National Disaster Management Ordinance has been passed, the Implementation of which would be ensured by the National Disaster Management Commission. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) will be the focal point for coordinating and facilitating the implementation of strategies and programs on disaster risk reduction, response and recovery. Similarly, Disaster Management Authorities will be established at provincial, district and municipal levels. NDMA would provide technical guidance to national and provincial stakeholders about formulation of plans, strategies and programs for disaster risk management. NDMA would also work towards capacity development of national, provincial and local stakeholders in collaboration with PDMAs and DDMAs. Priorities for next five years are at Annex-1 The National Disaster Risk Management Framework has been formulated to guide the work of entire system in the area of disaster risk management. It has been developed through wide consultation with stakeholders from local, provincial and national levels. The Framework envisions, To achieve sustainable social, economic and environmental development in Pakistan through reducing risks and vulnerabilities, particularly those of the poor and marginalized groups, and by effectively responding to and recovering from disaster impact Nine priority areas identified to establish and strengthen policies, institutions and capacities over the next five years include: i) Institutional and legal arrangements for DRM ii) Hazard and vulnerability assessment, iii) Training, education and awareness, iv) Disaster risk management planning, v) Community and local level programming, vi) Multi-hazard early warning system, vii) Mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into development, viii) Emergency response system, ix) Capacity development for post disaster recovery. Roles and responsibilities of key national, provincial and local stakeholders have been defined in the framework. Broadly speaking, all stakeholders are expected to undertake following actions to promote disaster risk management;

8 i) Integrate risk assessment in the planning and design stages of all new infrastructure/projects, ii) Assess vulnerability of people, infrastructure, assets and services related to their sector, iii) Develop disaster risk management plans, iv) Integrate vulnerability reduction measures in new construction, v) Develop technical capacities of their departments/sectors to implement disaster risk management strategies, and vi) Allocate funds for disaster risk management in annual development budgets. Other responsibilities include: i) Conduct post disaster damage and loss assessments, ii) Organize emergency response as per the mandate of the department; iii) Organize recovery and rehabilitation as per the mandate; The principles established in the Framework are: i) promoting multi-stakeholder, multi-sector and multi-disciplinary approaches, ii) reducing vulnerability of most vulnerable social groups, iii) strengthening community and local level risk reduction capacities, iv) combining scientific and people's knowledge, v) developing culturally, socially, economically and environmentally relevant technologies, vi) strengthening sustainable livelihood practices, vii) acquiring specific capacities in view of the hazard-risk profile of the area and country, and viii) working with other countries, and the international community to promote disaster risk reduction. RECOMMENDATIONS Mitigation Urban development policies that reduce risks to fire hazards and facilitate operations of emergency response services. Policy enforcement is even more critical. Legislations that set standards optimize efficiency.and cut functional duplicity must be enacted. Its early promulgation is critical to give direction to development of fire services Strategic capacity to pre-empt sea or shore based oil spills or allow its efficient management A strong advocacy and public awareness focus on hazard prevention.

9 Preparedness Integration of emergency response services for reasons of efficiency and economy Critical resource must be made available to enhance preparedness Performance standards should be set consistent with international best practices Preparedness for managing maritime disasters should be enhanced through a multi-stake holder approach Concept of activity and need based volunteerism to be strengthened to make emergency response automatic at the grass roots. The volunteer capacity should be steered to a purpose, set of deliverables and have an institutional linkage. Response Emphasis on task performing Standard Operational Procedures (SOPs), service pride and recognition to enhance response quality. Public friendly approach to emergency management should be encouraged and institutional linkage to be created with public forums for better understanding of mutual concerns Muhammad Yousaf Additional Chief Secretary (Dev.) Government of AJ&K, Muzaffarabad Pakistan - Yousaf313@hotmail. com

10 Annex i Priorities for Five Years National Disaster Risk Management Framework for Pakistan Priorities Time (in Costs Fram Year-wise USD (in million) Institutions and Legal Arrangements (DM authorities established) Strengthening of NDMA 1 2 Formation of PDMCs and PDMAs 1 _ Formation of DDMAs, MDMAs Strategy on building codes implementation 2.02 Drafting of land-use plans for five cities.075 Development of insurance schemes for disaster risk reduction 011 CAT Financing schemes (Disaster Management Fund) 5 2. National Hazard and Vulnerability Assessment Vulnerability Atlas of Pakistan 1.6 Digitization of Vulnerability Atlas for selected areas Study on impact of climate change on glaciers and ice cap Training, Education and Awareness Curriculum development for NDMA, PDMA, DDMAs 2 Training for NDMA, PDMA, and district and municipal DM authorities Media Orientations Awareness for policy makers, politicians Integrate DRM in the syllabus of Civil Services Academy, NIPAs, Administrative Staff College, Defence College, Regimental Centres and armed forces training institutions Offering courses in selected universities and colleges Promoting Disaster Risk Management Planning Inputs on drafting of National, Provincial and Ministerial Plans.126 National Emergency Response Plan Provincial and Regional Disaster Risk Management Plans Disaster Risk Management Plans of Selected Line Ministries District/Municipal Disaster Risk Management Plans Training, awareness materials communities & local stakeholders Community Risk Assessment and Planning.3 Implement small scale mitt gation schemes School preparedness in high risk regions Multi-hazard Early Warning System Stakeholder workshops to strengthen institutional arrangements for EWS Flood Warning System in NWFP Flash Flood Warning System in Balochistan Cyclone Warning Centre Communicable disease surveillance system for Health sector Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction into Development Sectoral Guidelines on mainstreaming DRR Courses for line ministry officials on mainstreaming DRR implementation of pilot projects on mainstreaming DRR Lessons learnt from pilot projects on mainstreaming DRR Emergency Response System National EOG established with a Data Centre EOCs established at provincial and regional levels 2.1 EOCs established in 50 districts SOPs developed for national, provincial and district levels Common Assessment methodology for damage, loss and needs assessment 1.04 developed for use of all stakeholders Two Core Search and Rescue Teams Six Search and Rescue Teams established in provincial and regional capitals and key industrial cities 5 3 Training for EOCs, Civil Defence Academies National, provincial and district level drills Capacity Development for Post Disaster Recovery Training curriculum for recovery managers on needs assessment and programme design and implementation Lessons learnt from earthquake recovery 2.03 TOTAL GRAND TOTAL USD