TABLE OF CONTENTS 0.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION... 4 What is this report about?... 4

Transcription

1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 0.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION... 4 What is this report about?... 4 The series focuses on surety bonds and associated guarantees issued in relation to commercial activities... 4 Rationale... 4 Several factors provide rationale for the development of research about this market... 4 including its size plus a predicted shift in favour of insurance-backed surety bonds... 4 and the lack of alternative sources that analyse the entire market as opposed to just parts of it... 4 Definitions... 5 Surety bonds and related guarantees... 5 Surety bonds and related guarantees add up to a quite complex family of financial products... 5 including several different types of contract bond... 5 and various forms of commercial bond... 6 with competing products available from banks and other entities as well as from insurance providers... 6 Abbreviations... 6 Exchange rate... 6 Methodology... 7 Research program... 7 Market data analysis... 7 Finaccord EUROPEAN OVERVIEW Introduction Market size and growth All surety bonds and related guarantees The total market was worth close to EUR 8.5 billion across ten European countries in with Germany alone accounting for close to 30% of this value Eight of the ten countries saw their markets rise in value between 2011 and with Italy and Spain the two exceptions Construction industry The European construction market has tended to stagnate in recent years Market segmentation Segmentation between construction-related business and other business Well over a half of the total market value is due to construction-related bond business Segmentation between insurance underwriters, banks and other entities Banks account for a majority of the market value in all countries other than Italy and the UK Segmentation of insurance-backed surety bonds by domicile of underwriters As a weighted average across ten countries, around 13.2% of the market is dealt with offshore Segmentation of insurance-backed surety bonds by distribution channel and just under a half is intermediated by brokers with the share of brokers highest in Belgium, Poland and Turkey Market shares and concentration Insurance-backed surety bonds At a pan-european level, the market for insurance-backed surety bond is highly fragmented with Euler Hermes, Atradius and Zurich likely to be the leading underwriters These three competitors are also active across the highest number of countries among those researched Turkey and Italy are respectively the most and least concentrated markets for insurance-backed bonds FINACCORD (05/2016) i

2 Future outlook All surety bonds and related guarantees Across the ten countries combined, the market value is expected to approach EUR 10 billion by with the most rapid growth in real terms predicted for Spain, Switzerland and Turkey In future, insurers are likely to gain market share relative to banks and other entities Insurance-backed surety bonds with the result that insurance-backed surety bonds could amount to around EUR 2.83 billion by BELGIUM Introduction Market characteristics Surety bond types and substitutes Key regulations Typical period of validity Market value and segmentation Construction sector The Belgian construction market slipped back slightly in value from 2011 to Surety bonds and related guarantees but the value of surety bonds and related guarantees is likely to have reached a five-year high in Surety bonds for the construction sector represent around 60% the value of the total market A small proportion of the insurance-backed surety bond market is dealt with by non-domestic underwriters and about a quarter of it is underwritten directly by insurers Underwriter utilisation by brokers and market shares Euler Hermes and Credendo are the underwriters most commonly used by Belgian brokers and they are also likely to be the leaders by market share of business written Leading brokers Brokers with a significant presence in the market include both international players and local specialists Market forecast Modest growth in the total market value is predicted up to FRANCE Introduction Market characteristics Surety bond types and substitutes Key regulations Typical period of validity Market value and segmentation Construction sector A weak economy has hampered the performance of the French construction market Surety bonds and related guarantees but the value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees reached a new peak in Construction-related bonds make up just under a half of the total market and insurance-backed products for just over 20% of it A significant proportion of insurance-backed surety bonds are underwritten outside of France and a clear majority of their value is underwritten directly (as opposed to being distributed by brokers) Underwriter utilisation by brokers and market shares Atradius and QBE benefit from the most frequent utilisation by brokers followed by Euler Hermes and Groupama Atradius and CEGC (a subsidiary of Natixis) are the probable leaders by market share Leading brokers A number of brokers have significant involvement in the French market for insurance-backed surety bonds Market forecast Business underwritten by insurers is expected to outgrow that dealt with by banks and other entities FINACCORD (05/2016) ii

3 within a total market value that is likely to advance steadily up to GERMANY Introduction Market characteristics Key regulations Surety bond types and substitutes Typical period of validity Market value and segmentation Construction sector Even in real terms, the German construction market achieved reasonable growth from 2011 to Surety bonds and related guarantees which has also been beneficial for the market for surety bonds and related guarantees Surety bonds for the construction sector make up over a half of the total market value which is composed primarily of bank-issued guarantees Most insurance-backed surety bonds are underwritten by insurers based in Germany itself and about a third of that market value is intermediated by brokers Underwriter utilisation by brokers and market shares Euler Hermes and R&V enjoy the most regular utilisation by brokers of surety bonds followed by VHV, AXA and Zurich R&V is likely to be the market leader by value of insurance-backed surety bonds underwritten Leading brokers Gracher is the leading specialist intermediary of surety bonds in Germany Market forecast The value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees is poised to expand further and insurers are expected to account for an increasing share of this sector ITALY Introduction Market characteristics Key regulations Surety bond types and substitutes Typical period of validity Market value and segmentation Construction sector The Italian construction sector may have bottomed out in 2014 and Surety bonds and related guarantees with a similar assertion applying to the market for surety bonds and related guarantees Procurement contract bonds are easily the most common type of insurance-backed surety bond The insurance-backed surety bond sector has seen a worsening underwriting performance in recent years Surety bonds for the construction sector make up over 40% of the total market value which is composed mainly of insurance-backed bonds with the share of bank guarantees low in comparison to other European countries A significant proportion of the insurance-backed surety bond market is placed outside of Italy and over a half of it is intermediated by brokers Underwriter utilisation by brokers and market shares Atradius, Coface and SACE BT are used most frequently as underwriters by brokers of surety bonds in a market for insurance-backed products that is relatively fragmented Leading brokers Numerous brokers are active as intermediaries of surety bonds in Italy with Aon likely to be the market leader among them Market forecast In real terms, the Italian market is unlikely to expand significantly between 2015 and FINACCORD (05/2016) iii

4 albeit insurers should gain share from banks and other institutions NETHERLANDS Introduction Market characteristics Key regulations Surety bond types and substitutes Typical period of validity Market value and segmentation Construction sector The value of the Dutch construction industry market reached a trough in but has since staged a partial recovery Surety bonds and related guarantees helping to propel forwards the market for surety bonds and related guarantees which has experienced improving technical results in recent years Over a half of the total market value is due to construction-related bonds and over three quarters of it is composed of bank guarantees Over 20% of the value of the market for insurance-backed bonds is placed outside of the Netherlands and the vast majority of it is dealt with directly by underwriters Underwriter utilisation by brokers and market shares Few underwriters of insurance-backed bonds distribute their products via brokers Atradius is the probable market leader by a considerable margin followed by Nationale Borg (excluding its reinsurance business) Leading brokers Aon is likely to be the leading broker of insurance-backed surety bonds in the Netherlands Market forecast Moderate growth is predicted for the total market value up to Insurance-backed bonds are likely to outgrow bank guarantees POLAND Introduction Market characteristics Surety bond types and substitutes Typical period of validity Market value and segmentation Construction sector The value of the Polish construction market has recovered from its low point reached in Surety bonds and related guarantees and the value of its market for surety bonds and related guarantees has surged in recent years which may be due in part to substantial year-on-year fluctuations in loss ratios Around 70% of the total market value is likely to be attributable to the construction sector and a narrow majority of it to bank guarantees Over 90% of the insurance-backed market is underwritten by insurers based in Poland itself with close to three quarters of this intermediated by brokers Underwriter utilisation by brokers and market shares ERGO Hestia and PZU enjoy the most frequent utilisation by brokers of insurance-backed surety bonds followed by InterRisk and then by Generali, UNIQA and Warta PZU is the probable market leader in terms of surety bond premiums Leading brokers Several brokers have dedicated teams working specifically in the area of surety bonds Market forecast The total market is on track to be worth over EUR 250 million by with insurers likely to account for more than EUR 100 million of this FINACCORD (05/2016) iv

5 9.0 SPAIN Introduction Market characteristics Key regulations Surety bond types and substitutes Typical period of validity Market value and segmentation Construction sector The Spanish construction market experienced a long slump up to although activity appears to be picking up again Surety bonds and related guarantees which should benefit the associated market for surety bonds and related guarantees The loss ratio associated with insurance-backed bonds has fluctuated wildly in recent years The value of construction-related bonds has shrunk to less than a half of the total market value within which bank guarantees continue to account for over a half of the total market value with insurers and reciprocal guarantee companies picking up the remaining business Little insurance-backed surety bond business is placed with underwriters outside of Spain and most of the value of this market arrives with insurers via brokers Underwriter utilisation by brokers and market shares MAPFRE and Crédito y Caución benefit from the most regular usage by surety bond brokers although a further ten insurers are also named as frequent providers by brokers investigated One of the market leaders has seen rapid growth in its Spanish premium income in recent years Leading brokers Numerous brokers are active as intermediaries of surety bonds in Spain Market forecast Relatively strong growth is predicted for the Spanish market for surety bonds and related guarantees especially in the insurance-backed segment SWITZERLAND Introduction Market characteristics Surety bond types and substitutes Typical period of validity Market value and segmentation Construction sector The value of the Swiss construction market grew strongly up to 2013 but then stagnated Surety bonds and related guarantees which is a trend partially visible in the associated market for surety bonds and related guarantees The loss ratio for insurance-backed surety bonds appears have been consistently low Construction-related guarantees account for over two thirds of the total market value which is composed primarily of bank guarantees Swiss law dictates that all insurance-backed business can be classified as domestic with over a half of this intermediated by brokers (as opposed to being underwritten directly) Underwriter utilisation by brokers and market shares In terms of broker utilisation, AXA and Zurich are comfortably ahead of the underwriter ranked third although the market leader, Swisscaution, relies on alternative distribution channels most notably estate agencies and Swiss Post Leading brokers A number of specialised surety bond brokers are active in the Swiss market Market forecast Insurance-backed surety bonds are thought likely to grow more quickly than bank guarantees TURKEY FINACCORD (05/2016) v

6 Introduction Market characteristics Key regulations Surety bond types and substitutes Typical period of validity Market value and segmentation Construction sector The value of the Turkish construction market expanded consistently between 2011 and with the Turkish government s Vision 2023 having been influential in this respect Surety bonds and related guarantees and this translates through to a strong rise in the market for surety bonds and related guarantees close to two thirds of which is due to construction-related business Turkish law has only recently opened up a market for insurance-backed surety bonds with most such business still placed with underwriters based outside of Turkey and with brokers playing a very important role as a distribution channel Underwriter utilisation by brokers and market shares Euler Hermes and Coface are used most frequently as underwriters of insurance-backed bonds which means that they are also the likely market leaders in this segment Leading brokers A number of brokers are developing a focus on insurance-backed surety bonds Market forecast The total market value in Turkey is likely to continue expanding rapidly albeit growth reduces once forecast inflation is taken into account UK Introduction Market characteristics Key regulations Surety bond types and substitutes Typical period of validity Market value and segmentation Construction sector The value of the UK construction market reached a five-year high in Surety bonds and related guarantees as did the associated market for surety bonds and related guarantees Construction-related surety bonds account for the lion s share of the total market value The vast majority of the value of the insurance-backed surety bond market is underwritten in the UK itself and over 60% of business passes through brokers Underwriter utilisation by brokers and market shares Brokers place surety bond risks most frequently with Euler Hermes and Tokio Marine HCC with the latter likely to be the leader by market share of premiums Leading brokers A number of brokers have developed distinctive expertise in the area of surety bonds Market forecast Steady growth in the total market value is likely to occur up to with the share of insurance-backed surety bonds thought likely to increase FINACCORD (05/2016) vi

7 LIST OF GRAPHICS / TABLES 0.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION EUROPEAN OVERVIEW Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees across ten European countries, 2011 to Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees across ten European countries, segmented by country, 2011 and Nominal and real compound annual growth in the value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees across ten European countries, segmented by country, 2011 to Relative size of estimated gross written premiums for trade credit insurance, segmented by country, Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees across ten European countries, segmented by country, 2011 to 2015 (table) Value of the construction market across ten European countries, 2011 to Value of the construction market across ten European countries, segmented by country, 2011 to 2015 (table) Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees across ten European countries segmented between construction and other activities, and by country, Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees across ten European countries segmented between construction and other activities, and by country, 2015 (table) Correlation between the value of surety bonds and related guarantees acquired by the construction sector and the value of the construction market across ten European countries, segmented by country, Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees across ten European countries segmented between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, and by country, Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees across ten European countries segmented between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, and by country, 2015 (table) Gross written premiums for insurance-backed surety bonds across ten European countries, segmented between domestic and non-domestic underwriters, and by country, Gross written premiums for insurance-backed surety bonds across ten European countries, segmented between domestic and non-domestic underwriters, and by country, 2015 (table) Gross written premiums for insurance-backed surety bonds across ten European countries segmented between bonds intermediated by brokers and bonds underwritten directly, and by country, Gross written premiums for insurance-backed surety bonds across ten European countries segmented between bonds intermediated by brokers and bonds underwritten directly, and by country, 2015 (table). 24 Estimated market shares of gross written premiums of the top ten underwriters of insurance-backed surety bonds across ten European countries, Estimated market shares of gross written premiums of the top ten underwriters of insurance-backed surety bonds across ten European countries, 2015 (table) Geographic presence of the top ten underwriters of insurance-backed surety bonds across ten European countries, 'Top three' market concentration of insurance-backed surety bonds across ten European countries segmented by country, 'Top three' market concentration of insurance-backed surety bonds across ten European countries segmented by country, 2015 (table) Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees across ten European countries, segmented by country, 2019 (forecast) Nominal and real compound annual growth of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees across ten European countries, segmented by country, 2015 to 2019 (forecast) FINACCORD (05/2016) vii

8 Nominal and real compound annual growth of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees across ten European countries, segmented by country, 2015 to 2019 (forecast) (table) Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees across ten European countries segmented between insurance underwriters, banks and other entities, 2019 (forecast) Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees across ten European countries segmented between insurance underwriters, banks and other entities, 2019 (forecast) (table) Value of the market for insurance-backed surety bonds across ten European countries, segmented by country, 2019 (forecast) Nominal and real compound annual growth of the market for insurance-backed surety bonds across ten European countries, segmented by country, 2015 to 2019 (forecast) Nominal and real compound annual growth of the market for insurance-backed surety bonds across ten European countries, segmented by country, 2015 to 2019 (forecast) (table) BELGIUM Value of the construction market in Belgium, 2011 to Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Belgium, 2011 to Segmentation of the value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Belgium between construction and other activities, Segmentation of the value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Belgium between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, Gross written premiums for insurance-backed surety bonds in Belgium, segmented between domestic and non-domestic underwriters, Segmentation of the value of the insurance-backed surety bond market in Belgium between surety bonds issued directly and surety bonds intermediated by brokers, bonds in Belgium, Belgium, Belgium, 2015 (table) Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Belgium segmented between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, 2019 (forecast) Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Belgium segmented between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, 2019 (forecast) (table) FRANCE Value of the construction market in France, 2011 to Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in France, 2011 to Segmentation of the value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in France between construction and other activities, Segmentation of the value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in France between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, Gross written premiums for insurance-backed surety bonds in France, segmented between domestic and non-domestic underwriters, Segmentation of the value of the insurance-backed surety bond market in France between surety bonds issued directly and surety bonds intermediated by brokers, bonds in France, France, France, 2015 (table) Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in France segmented between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, 2019 (forecast) Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in France segmented between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, 2019 (forecast) (table) FINACCORD (05/2016) viii

9 5.0 GERMANY Value of the construction market in Germany, 2011 to Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Germany, 2011 to Segmentation of the value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Germany between construction and other activities, Segmentation of the value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Germany between insurance companies and banks, Gross written premiums for insurance-backed surety bonds in Germany, segmented between domestic and non-domestic underwriters, Segmentation of the value of the insurance-backed surety bond market in Germany between surety bonds issued directly and surety bonds intermediated by brokers, bonds in Germany, Germany, Germany, 2015 (table) Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Germany segmented between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, 2019 (forecast) Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Germany segmented between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, 2019 (forecast) (table) ITALY Value of the construction market in Italy, 2011 to Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Italy, 2011 to Segmentation of the value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Italy between construction and other activities, Segmentation of the value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Italy between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, Gross written premiums for insurance-backed surety bonds in Italy, segmented between domestic and non-domestic underwriters, Segmentation of the value of the insurance-backed surety bond market in Italy between surety bonds issued directly and surety bonds intermediated by brokers, bonds in Italy, Italy, Italy, 2015 (table) Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Italy segmented between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, 2019 (forecast) Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Italy segmented between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, 2019 (forecast) (table) NETHERLANDS Value of the construction market in the Netherlands, 2011 to Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in the Netherlands, 2011 to Segmentation of the value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in the Netherlands between construction and other activities, Segmentation of the value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in the Netherlands between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, Gross written premiums for insurance-backed surety bonds in the Netherlands, segmented between domestic and non-domestic underwriters, Segmentation of the value of the insurance-backed surety bond market in the Netherlands between surety bonds issued directly and surety bonds intermediated by brokers, FINACCORD (05/2016) ix

10 bonds in the Netherlands, the Netherlands, the Netherlands, 2015 (table) Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in the Netherlands segmented between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, 2019 (forecast) Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in the Netherlands segmented between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, 2019 (forecast) (table) POLAND Value of the construction market in Poland, 2011 to 2015 (EUR billion) Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Poland, 2011 to Segmentation of the value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Poland between construction and other activities, Approximate segmentation of the value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Poland between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, Gross written premiums for insurance-backed surety bonds in Poland, segmented between domestic and non-domestic underwriters, Segmentation of the value of the insurance-backed surety bond market in Poland between surety bonds issued directly and surety bonds intermediated by brokers, bonds in Poland, Poland, Poland, 2015 (table) Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Poland segmented between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, 2019 (forecast) Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Poland segmented between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, 2019 (forecast) (table) SPAIN Value of the construction market in Spain, 2011 to Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Spain, 2011 to Segmentation of the value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Spain between construction and other activities, Segmentation of the value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Spain between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, Gross written premiums for insurance-backed surety bonds in Spain, segmented between domestic and non-domestic underwriters, Segmentation of the value of the insurance-backed surety bond market in Spain between surety bonds issued directly and surety bonds intermediated by brokers, bonds in Spain, Spain, Spain, 2015 (table) Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Spain segmented between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, 2019 (forecast) Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Spain segmented between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, 2019 (forecast) (table) SWITZERLAND Value of the construction market in Switzerland, 2011 to FINACCORD (05/2016) x

11 Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Switzerland, 2011 to Segmentation of the value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Switzerland between construction and other activities, Segmentation of the value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Switzerland between insurance companies and banks, Gross written premiums for insurance-backed surety bonds in Switzerland, segmented between domestic and non-domestic underwriters, Segmentation of the value of the insurance-backed surety bond market in Switzerland between surety bonds issued directly and surety bonds intermediated by brokers, bonds in Switzerland, Switzerland, Switzerland, 2015 (table) Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Switzerland segmented between insurance companies and banks, 2019 (forecast) Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Switzerland segmented between insurance companies and banks, 2019 (forecast) (table) TURKEY Value of the construction market in Turkey, 2011 to Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Turkey, 2011 to Segmentation of the value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Turkey between construction and other activities, Segmentation of the value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Turkey between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, Gross written premiums for insurance-backed surety bonds in Turkey, segmented between domestic and non-domestic underwriters, Segmentation of the value of the insurance-backed surety bond market in Turkey between surety bonds issued directly and surety bonds intermediated by brokers, bonds in Turkey, Turkey, Turkey, 2015 (table) Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Turkey segmented between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, 2019 (forecast) Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in Turkey segmented between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, 2019 (forecast) (table) UK Value of the construction market in the UK, 2011 to Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in the UK, 2011 to Segmentation of the value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in the UK between construction and other activities, Segmentation of the value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in the UK between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, Gross written premiums for insurance-backed surety bonds in the UK, segmented between domestic and non-domestic underwriters, Segmentation of the value of the insurance-backed surety bond market in the UK between surety bonds issued directly and surety bonds intermediated by brokers, bonds in the UK, FINACCORD (05/2016) xi

12 the UK, the UK, 2015 (table) Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in the UK segmented between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, 2019 (forecast) Value of the market for surety bonds and related guarantees in the UK segmented between insurance companies, banks and other institutions, 2019 (forecast) (table) FINACCORD (05/2016) xii