RAPID-N: Assessing and mapping the risk of natural-hazard impact at industrial installations
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1 RAPID-N: Assessing and mapping the risk of natural-hazard impact at industrial installations Serkan Girgin, Elisabeth Krausmann European Commission Joint Research Centre Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen Ispra, Italy Serving society Stimulating innovation Supporting legislation
2 Source: Sankei Getty Images A Kouchiyama
3 Natural hazard triggered technological accidents A natech accident is a chemical accident caused by a natural hazard. Particular characteristics: Simultaneous hazardous-materials releases from multiple sources Damage to prevention and mitigation systems including lifelines (e.g. water, power) Complicated response 14 April
4 Natech Risk Natech risks are expected to increase due to: more hazards (climate change, industrialization) higher vulnerability (urbanization, interconnectedness) in a situation where Natech risk assessment methodologies & tools and guidelines for Natech risk management are missing. * E. Krausmann, D. Baranzini (2012) Natech risk reduction in the European Union, J Risk Research 15(8): Priority work areas*: Implement and enforce regulations for Natech risk reduction Develop methods, tools and guidance for Natech risk management Develop dedicated Natech emergency management plans Develop Natech risk maps Raise awareness and improve risk communication Train stakeholders on Natech risk reduction
5 JRC Activities Accident analysis and guidance Site surveys for damage assessment (China, Japan) Statistical analysis Lessons learned and recommendations Natech database: enatech Risk analysis tools Framework for natech risk assessment and mapping: RAPID-N 14 April
6
7 RAPID-N: Rapid Natech Risk Mapping Framework Easy and quick data entry Rapid analysis Visualization Collaboration Cloud-based Modular architecture Scientific Tools Natural Hazards and Natechs Facilities and Process Units Risk Assessment
8 Natural Hazard Damage Consequence Hazard Map - Probabilistic - Deterministic Site Data Process Unit Data Risk States Manual Input Natural Hazard Parameters Damage Probability Consequence Analysis Hazard Parameter Estimation Methods Fragility Curves Natech Risk Historical Data - Hazard Parameters - Damage states - Consequences Risk Receptor Data - Land-use - Population
9 Natural Hazard Hazard Map - Probabilistic - Deterministic Site Data Manual Input Natural Hazard Parameters Hazard Parameter Estimation Methods
10 Damage Process Unit Data Damage Probability Fragility Curves Historical Data - Hazard Parameters - Damage states - Consequences
11 Consequence Risk States Consequence Analysis Natech Risk Risk Receptor Data - Land-use - Population
12 Property Estimation Framework Generic framework Natural hazard properties (e.g. PGA) Site properties (e.g. Soil class) Process unit properties (e.g. Volume) Substance properties (e.g. Density) Facility properties (e.g. Production capacity) Numerical or tabular data Fixed value or complex function Conditionally valid Location-aware Selection of the most suitable Recursive Exhaustive
13 Status and Data Availability Currently implemented for earthquakes and fixed installations ~ 20,000 earthquakes (> M 5.5) > 52,500 earthquake catalog data ~ 10,000 shakemaps Complete implementation of U.S. EPA RMP Offsite Consequence Analysis methodology > 200 properties > 400 property estimators > 5,500 industrial facilities Refineries Power plants > 64,000 plant units Storage tanks
14 Application Areas Rapid local and regional natech risk assessment Land-use and emergency planning Identification of neighboring infrastructures at risk Early warning Preliminary damage assessment
15 Example: Earthquake Case Study Istanbul Earthquake JICA (2002) Model A Mw 7.5 Fault length 120 km Strike-slip
16 Industrial Facility Located in Izmit Bay Kerosene d e 6.3 km PGA 0.77 g Acrylonitrile PGV 1.66 m/s MMI storage tanks
17 Output Release of toxic substance Impact area for 1-hr exposure without irreversible health effects Release of flammable substance Impact area for 2 nd degree burns
18 Ongoing and Future Research Extension to other natural hazards and infrastructures Pipelines ( ), Floods (2015) Automated natech damage and consequence estimation (Alert) Reporting to interested parties and authorities Cascading (domino) effects Consideration of risk receptors Fragility curve creation tool Statistical analysis of natech damage data
19 Thank you for your attention! Contact
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