Best Overall Forecasters

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1 Bloomberg Rankings Top Forecasters of the U.S. Economy Q As of: October 1, 2015 Best Overall Forecasters Rank Forecaster Firm Avg. Score* 1 Christophe Barraud Market Securities Jim O'Sullivan High Frequency Economics Bernd Weidensteiner/Christoph Balz Commerzbank Thomas Lam RHB Brian Wesbury/Robert Stein First Trust Portfolios Harald Preissler Bantleon Michael Feroli JPMorgan Chase Lewis Alexander Nomura Securities Scott Anderson Bank of the West Avery Shenfeld CIBC World Markets Jan Hatzius Goldman Sachs Nariman Behravesh IHS Richard Moody Regions Financial Maury Harris/Samuel Coffin/Drew Matus UBS Signe Roed-Frederiksen Danske Bank Russell Price Ameriprise Financial Ryan Wang HSBC Securities USA Ted Wieseman Morgan Stanley Jay Feldman/Dana Saporta Credit Suisse Gabriel Casillas Grupo Financiero Banorte *In each indicator (out of 78 forecasters) Source: Bloomberg Methodology To identify the best forecasters of the U.S. economy, we used estimates submitted to Bloomberg for 15 key monthly indicators including Consumer Confidence, CPI, Durable Goods Orders, Existing Home Sales, Housing Starts, IP, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Nonmanufacturing, New Home Sales, Nonfarm Payrolls, Personal Income, Personal Spending, Retail Sales, Unemployment and GDP. GDP is treated as a monthly indicator by ranking the advance, second and third revisions. As of the ranking for Q we added the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Indicator. This ranking does not include PPI. The Labor Department expanded PPI in February 2014 to include prices received for goods, services, government purchases, exports and construction. The previous index reflected the cost of goods alone. This PPI final demand indicator will not be included in this ranking until Q1 2016, when the minimum 24 months of data will be available. Bloomberg considers two years of data (ended August 2015) for monthly indicators, with a forecast requirement of at least 15 out of 24 forecasts, a minimum of two consecutive forecasts within the last six months and at least one forecast in the last three periods. Each indicator had at least 71 forecasters who qualified for the ranking. The forecasters indicated with an asterisk are those who predicted the actual number released for the August period. Bloomberg assigned a score between zero and 100 to economists reflecting the accuracy of their historical forecasts. Economists with lower forecast errors relative to other economists would receive higher scores, and vice versa. In the case of a tie of two or more economists, the listings are alphabetical by firm name. To identify the best overall forecasters, we averaged the scores of the 78 forecasters who qualified in at least eight indicators; the top 20 forecasters are shown here. A "Z-score"-based statistical model is employed to calculate the probability of the forecast error. The score is then equated to the probability of the forecast error being larger than the observed error for the given economist. More information on Calculation Methodology (Z-score-based) may be found on the Bloomberg Professional service on the ECOS Help Page under Calculations.

2 Conference Board Consumer Confidence 1 Jim O'Sullivan High Frequency Economics Stan Shipley Evercore ISI Peter D'Antonio Citigroup David Kelly JPMorgan Asset Management Ryan Wang HSBC Securities USA Markus Schomer PineBridge Investments Stephen Stanley Amherst Pierpont Securities Rudolf Besch/Marina Luetje DekaBank Guy LeBas Janney Montgomery Scott Harald Preissler Bantleon Consumer Price Index 1 Jim O'Sullivan High Frequency Economics Ted Wieseman* Morgan Stanley Inna Mufteeva/Thomas Julien* Natixis Scott Anderson* Bank of the West Christophe Barraud Market Securities Bernd Weidensteiner/Christoph Balz Commerzbank Michael Carey Credit Agricole Lewis Alexander Nomura Securities Douglas Porter* BMO Capital Markets Bernd Krampen* Norddeutsche Landesbank Durable Goods Orders 1 Bernd Weidensteiner/Christoph Balz Commerzbank Joerg Angele Raiffeisenbank International Paul Ashworth/Paul Dales Capital Economics Gregory Daco Oxford Economics USA Stefane Marion/Krishen Rangasamy* National Bank Financial Aaron Smith/Ryan Sweet Moody's Analytics Peter Morici* University of Maryland Richard Moody Regions Financial Christophe Barraud Market Securities Mike Englund Action Economics Existing Home Sales 1 Christophe Barraud Market Securities Thomas Lam RHB Michael Feroli JPMorgan Chase Bernd Weidensteiner/Christoph Balz Commerzbank Brian Wesbury/Robert Stein First Trust Portfolios Brian Jones Societe Generale Jim O'Sullivan High Frequency Economics Richard Moody Regions Financial Avery Shenfeld CIBC World Markets John Silvia Wells Fargo 61.61

3 GDP (2Q T) 1 Nariman Behravesh IHS Ted Wieseman Morgan Stanley Brian Jones Societe Generale Stefane Marion/Krishen Rangasamy National Bank Financial Bernd Weidensteiner/Christoph Balz Commerzbank Michael Feroli* JPMorgan Chase Scott Anderson Bank of the West Jay Feldman/Dana Saporta Credit Suisse Jim O'Sullivan High Frequency Economics Michael Moran Daiwa Capital Markets America Housing Starts 1 Stuart Hoffman PNC Financial Services Group Avery Shenfeld CIBC World Markets Jim O'Sullivan High Frequency Economics Lewis Alexander Nomura Securities Nancy Vanden Houten Stone McCarthy Research Associate Jay Feldman/Dana Saporta Credit Suisse Maury Harris/Samuel Coffin/Drew Matus UBS Lou Crandall/Bill Jordan Wrightson Icap Brian Wesbury/Robert Stein First Trust Portfolios Thomas Lam RHB Industrial Production 1 Jim O'Sullivan* High Frequency Economics Michael Feroli* JPMorgan Chase Maury Harris/Samuel Coffin/Drew Matus UBS Jan Hatzius* Goldman Sachs Christophe Barraud* Market Securities Thomas Lam RHB Bernd Weidensteiner/Christoph Balz Commerzbank Lewis Alexander Nomura Securities Harald Preissler* Bantleon Aaron Smith/Ryan Sweet Moody's Analytics ISM Manufacturing 1 Jan Hatzius Goldman Sachs Signe Roed-Frederiksen Danske Bank Ilan Goldfajn Itau Asset Management Thomas Lam RHB Harm Bandholz UniCredit Bank Scott Brown Raymond James Financial Lewis Alexander Nomura Securities Ted Wieseman Morgan Stanley Jim O'Sullivan High Frequency Economics Richard Moody Regions Financial 56.27

4 ISM Nonmanufacturing 1 Christophe Barraud Market Securities Francois Dupuis/Francis Genereux Desjardins Group Peter Morici University of Maryland Lou Crandall/Bill Jordan Wrightson Icap Scott Anderson Bank of the West David Sloan 4Cast Rudolf Besch/Marina Luetje DekaBank Inna Mufteeva/Thomas Julien Natixis Bernd Krampen Norddeutsche Landesbank Hugh Johnson Hugh Johnson Advisors New Home Sales 1 Peter Morici University of Maryland Jim O'Sullivan High Frequency Economics Signe Roed-Frederiksen Danske Bank Avery Shenfeld CIBC World Markets David Berson Nationwide Insurance Brian Jones Societe Generale Patrick Franke Helaba Ryan Wang HSBC Securities USA Michael Feroli JPMorgan Chase Maninder Sibia Contingent Macro Nonfarm Payrolls 1 Ted Wieseman Morgan Stanley Gregory Daco Oxford Economics USA Aaron Smith/Ryan Sweet Moody's Analytics Nariman Behravesh IHS Max Clarke IDEAglobal Brian Wesbury/Robert Stein First Trust Portfolios Stephan Buu CTI Capital Harald Preissler Bantleon David Milleker Union Investment Joseph LaVorgna Deutsche Bank Securities Personal Income 1 Michelle Girard RBS Securities Ryan Wang HSBC Securities USA Harald Preissler Bantleon Brian Wesbury/Robert Stein First Trust Portfolios Thomas Lam RHB Robert Dye* Comerica Inna Mufteeva/Thomas Julien Natixis Bernd Weidensteiner/Christoph Balz Commerzbank Markus Schomer PineBridge Investments John Silvia* Wells Fargo 64.92

5 Personal Spending 1 Tom Porcelli* RBC Capital Markets Paul Ashworth/Paul Dales* Capital Economics David Sloan* 4Cast Russell Price Ameriprise Financial Brian Wesbury/Robert Stein First Trust Portfolios Bernd Weidensteiner/Christoph Balz Commerzbank Aaron Smith/Ryan Sweet* Moody's Analytics Stuart Hoffman PNC Financial Services Group Thomas Lam RHB Signe Roed-Frederiksen* Danske Bank Retail Sales 1 Harald Preissler* Bantleon Avery Shenfeld* CIBC World Markets Michelle Girard RBS Securities Signe Roed-Frederiksen Danske Bank Stephen Stanley Amherst Pierpont Securities Jim O'Sullivan High Frequency Economics Jay Feldman/Dana Saporta Credit Suisse Thomas Costerg Standard Chartered Bank Gregory Daco* Oxford Economics USA Peter D'Antonio Citigroup Unemployment 1 Joseph LaVorgna Deutsche Bank Securities James Knightley/Rob Carnell* ING Bank Chris Rupkey Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ Scott Brown Raymond James Financial Jason Schenker Prestige Economics David Sloan 4Cast Stuart Hoffman PNC Financial Services Group Harald Preissler Bantleon Guy LeBas Janney Montgomery Scott Max Clarke IDEAglobal 64.61

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