Groupe. Présentation SFAF - Comptes annuels 2017 Retour vers le futur des marchés

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1 Groupe ABC arbitrage Présentation SFAF - Comptes annuels 2017 Retour vers le futur des marchés ABC arbitrage 1

2 AVERTISSEMENT Ce slideshow est un support de communication remis aux participants de la présentation SFAF du 27 mars 2018 et publié sur le site Ces éléments d information sont donnés à des fins d illustration et ne sauraient se substituer aux documents officiels relatifs à l année ABC arbitrage 2

3 ABC arbitrage - Consolidated Net Profits In EUR million Dec. 31, 2017 IFRS Dec. 31, 2016 IFRS Change Investment Services Fees ,52% Net gains at fair value through profit or loss ,24% Net revenues* ,85% (13.8) (16.2) -14,90% (1.6) (1.6) -1,12% (5.3) (5.2) 2,23% Other taxes (0.1) (0.2) -25,72% Total costs (20.8) (23.1) -10,22% ,35% Payroll costs Occupancy costs Other expense ROE 11.5% Income before tax Net income attributable to equity holders ,05% *Taxes and costs are already in Net Revenues for subsidiaries which are accounted for using the Net gains at fair value through profit or loss method (IFRS 10). 3

4 Évolution des indices (S&P 500 vs CAC 40) 9 ans de hausse... 2nd + long cycle haussier (vs ) > 200% sur 9 ans 2e perf. depuis 100 ans source: les Cahiers Verts de l économie ABC arbitrage

5 Indicateurs fondamentaux sur des records! PER Price to Book ratio Schiller Ratio ABC arbitrage

6 VIX (from 2008) ABC arbitrage

7 2012/2017: Central Banks Era Central Banks Era Before Central Banks ABC arbitrage

8 New Volatility Era! Before Central Banks Central Banks Era Source Bloomberg ABC arbitrage

9 VIX from 07/2016 ABC arbitrage

10 Intraday Volatility 2017 From 1982, 58 days < 4% 1 day in 2016 and 57 days in % on 18-Oct

11 These figures are not strictly audited H2 does not exist from an accounting point of view H2 Statiscally < H1 H Decrease is coherent 11

12 Intraday Volat. (days) < 4% Concentration on H

13 M&A (in billions - Monthly total) -55% (Low-High)/High -35% HY vs HY Q3+Q4 ABC arbitrage

14 Strong decrease of significant Corporate Actions -50% since HY

15 Expected Situation... Corporate Action M&A Volatility Volumes ABC arbitrage

16 2017 Situation Corporate Action M&A Volatility Volumes 2017 ABC arbitrage

17 If correlation to volatility was the same as , the results would be... Strong progression for ABC results (pari passu) +40% realised vs predictable 17

18 Correlation between VIX and Group Traded Volumes Volumes ABC à Volat ABC arbitrage

19 Decomposition by assets and type of clients Increase of Client volumes Increase of rates strategies volumes ABC arbitrage

20 ABCG monthly returns Capital protection 100% positive months Almost 80% positive trading days on 2017 (below average) ABC arbitrage

21 Correlation between volatility (20d) SP500 and P&L ABC From 2007 Still a very strong correlation! ABC arbitrage

22 UHFT Players - Winter is coming? -72% HY 2017/16-79% FY 2017/16-50% HY 2017/16-57% FY 2017/16 22

23 HFT Industry Revenues 23

24 ABC arbitrage - Consolidated Net Profits Dec. 31, 2017 IFRS In EUR million Investment Services Fees(1) Net gains at fair value through profit or loss 60% salaires fixes 30% Bonus 10% produits K Net revenues* Dec. 31, 2016 IFRS ,52% ,24% ,85% Payroll costs (13.8) (16.2) payroll costs / Net revenues 36% 30% Occupancy costs Other expense (IT + presta. ext.) Change (1.6) (5.3) -14,90% (1.6) (5.2) -1,12% 2,23% Other taxes (0.1) (0.2) -25,72% Total costs (20.8) (23.1) -10,22% ,35% Income before tax Net income attributable to equity holders ,05% 24

25 support +30 R&D Groupe : environ 90 collaborateurs 31-dec-2017 ABC arbitrage 25

26 Costs are adjusted to take into account IFRS 10 - Business Levels are close to, but not equal to Revenues (audited accounts) 26

27 vs LT average (1950) source: FIDELITY - for EM Equity vs LT average (1988) ABC arbitrage

28 23 consecutive years of positive result 28

29 2018 = New paradigm? source : Banque Mondiale 29

30 Évolution du VIX depuis 01/2012 En parallèle événements NO LIFE Zone ABC arbitrage

31 Volatility of volatility 5-FEB-17 All Time High 180 ABC arbitrage

32 New products, old problems! source : Banque Mondiale 32

33 Quant indexes Difficult Transition for most market actors! source : HFRi 33

34 source : Banque Mondiale 34

35 End of free lunch? source : Banque Mondiale 35

36 ...Not yet for ECB... 36

37 source : Banque Mondiale 37

38 With a total debt of 180 Trillion... If interest rates rise 0.25%... Debt interests +450 billion/year If interest rates rise 0.75%... Debt interests billion/year source : Banque Mondiale 38

39 With a total debt of 50 Billion /$... If interest rates rise 0.25%... Debt interests +125 Million/year If interest rates rise 0.75% % vs EBITDA T4 Debt Interests +375 Million/year source : Banque Mondiale 39

40 Back to living markets!...if Central Banks... source : Banque Mondiale 40

41 Central Banks Balance Sheets (Taille des bilans cumulés des principales banques centrales est d'environ milliards de dollars en Source : Lazard Frères Gestion, Bloomberg) source : Banque Mondiale 41

42 ABC arbitrage Et maintenant?? 42

43 Montant des fonds propres Evolution semestrielle (à compter du 01/01/2010) Conforme aux décisions 2016-Step Up 2019 ABC arbitrage

44 Shareholder s Equity Ratio Compliant with Step Up 2019 TODAY ABC arbitrage

45 VaR ABC arbitrage Group 10 day - 99% Portfolio Risk 2017 vs 2015 Increase of almost 15% 45

46 ABC arbitrage 46

47 ABC arbitrage 47

48 (in ABCA Fund Plc) 48

49 ABC Group investments in ABCA Fund Plc ABC Group one of the main clients 49

50 1-Mar M in our funds / 214M External investors 50

51 External Client Revenues (Funds Only) 51

52 (Funds only) below ambitions...capacity Problem Gross Revenues Net Revenues 52

53 Return on AUM for ABCA Fund Plc below ambitions...performance problem 53

54 Potential total AUM depend on Performances and Market Capacity (Step Up 2019 Targets) OK! Depend on markets conditions! 54

55 Low Volatility Strategies Gross Revenue 2017 realized are below ambitions...mainly because of very low vol. Innovation is still our target! = Step Up 2019 WARNING : These figures are internal indicators and have not been audited 55

56 Q Living Markets = Living Results! Low volat. for January 18 Q ABC Q ABC 1 week = 2 months 5th to 9th of Feb. = almost 85% of Oct+Nov 2017 ABC arbitrage 56

57 Distributions and Share Buyback Program BPA/EPS ,85 0,40 Distributions (0,20 nov. 2017) POR = 100% for 3M Buyback 2017 ABC Shares (almost 440KT - Average Price 6.54 ) (au service des programmes capitalistiques) ABC arbitrage 5

58 Limiter la dilution au service du BNPA Dividende et/ou ABC Programme de rachat vs ABC Paiement en ABC Selon autorisations AG et PER, programme de rachat 2018 sur 6M (environ 1MT) 58

59 ABC arbitrage David HOEY Joined ABC arbitrage in 1996 Becomes Deputy CEO of ABC arbitrage AM Becomes Deputy CEO of ABC arbitrage Gaëtan FOURNIER Joined ABC arbitrage AM in 2012 Becomes Compliance Officer / RCCI of ABC arbitrage AM ABC arbitrage 59

60 ABC arbitrage AM Alexandre OSPITAL Joined ABC arbitrage in 1999 Becomes COO of ABC arbitrage AM Yves-Oleg ZAJTELBACH Joined ABC arbitrage in 1999 Becomes Head of Trading of ABC arbitrage AM Franck BONNEAU Joined ABC arbitrage in 1999 Becomes CTO of ABC arbitrage AM Vincent GIGOT Joined ABC arbitrage AM in 2005 Becomes Head of Research of ABC arbitrage AM ABC arbitrage 60

61 Winter is not over but ambitions are still there...and still reasonable! 61

62 Q&A 62

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