Consensus Forecast for GDP and Autos 2004 and June 4, 2004
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- Cori Austin
- 6 years ago
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1 Consensus Forecast for GDP and Autos 2 and 2 Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium Detroit, Michigan June, 2 William A. Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
2 2 Automotive Outlook Symposium Forecast Winners Overall Current Dollar GDP GDP Price Index, Chain Type Real GDP Personal Consumption Expenditures Nonresidential Fixed Investment Residential Investment Change In Private Inventories Net Exports Government Consumption Expenditures Industrial Production Car & Light Truck Sales Housing Starts Oil Prices Unemployment Rate Inflation Rate (CPI) Treasury Constant Maturity 1-Year Rate Treasury Constant Maturity 1-Year Rate J.P. Morgan Trade Weighted OECD Dollar Anthony Pratt - T.K. Holdings Jack Bishop - Kingsbury International, Ltd. David Berson - Fannie Mae Tom Davis - Motorola Sal Guatieri - BMO Financial Group/Harris Bank Tom Guthrie - Indiana-Purdue at Fort Wanye Ellen Hughes-Cromwick/Jarlath Costello - Ford Motor Company Paul Kasriel/Asha Bangalore - Northern Trust Don Nichols - University of Wisconsin David Teolis - General Motors Corporation Chris Varvares - Macroeconomic Advisers Anthony Pratt - T.K. Holdings David Littmann - Comerica Bank Tom Davis - Motorola David Littmann - Comerica Bank Laura Spingola - Trade Resources Ltd. John Skorburg - American Farm Bureau Federation Tom Webb - Manheim Auctions David Teolis - General Motors Corporation David Teolis - General Motors Corporation Rick Dziobak - Amcast Automotive Van Jolissaint - DamilerChrysler David Littmann - Comerica Bank Ken Mayland - ClearView Economics, LLC Evert Van Der Heide - Calvin College James C. Smith - Indiana University School of Business Robert DiCianni - Ispat Inland Inc. George Erickeck - W.E. UpJohn Institute Peter Glassman - Bank One Bill Hickey - DTE Energy Dave Maaske - Charleston Orwig Rebecca Ross - Michigan Legislature and House Fiscal Agency David Teolis - General Motors Corporation Kenny Vieth - A.C.T. Research Co., LLC Bill Hickey - DTE Energy Peter Glassman - Bank One Peter Glassman - Bank One David Littmann - Comerica Bank
3 Table 1 - Median forecast of GDP and related items GDP, current dollars.8% 6.%.7% GDP deflator, chain-type price index 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% Real GDP, chained 2 dollars.1%.%.8% Personal consumption expenditures.1%.%.% Nonresidential fixed investment.% 9.% 8.6% Residential investment 7.%.% -1.1% Change in business inventories (billions of constant dollars) -$.8 $28.2 $. Net exports of goods and services (billions of constant dollars) -$9.1 -$2. -$98.8 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.% 2.2% 2.% Industrial production.%.9%.2% Car & light truck sales (millions) Housing starts (millions) Oil price (dollars per barrel of West Texas Intermediate) $1.1 $.9 $1.2 Unemployment rate 6.%.6%.% Inflation rate (consumer price index) 2.% 2.% 2.% Treasury constant maturity 1-year rate 1.2% 1.6% 2.7% Treasury constant maturity 1-year rate.2%.6%.2% Change in J.P. Morgan narrow nominal dollar index -6.7% -.1% -.7% 1 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
4 Table 2 - Mean forecast of GDP and related items GDP, current dollars.8% 6.2%.7% GDP deflator, chain-type price index 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% Real GDP, chained 2 dollars.1%.6%.8% Personal consumption expenditures.1%.7%.% Nonresidential fixed investment.% 8.7% 8.2% Residential investment 7.%.9% -1.8% Change in business inventories (billions of constant dollars) -$.8 $2.8 $.8 Net exports of goods and services (billions of constant dollars) -$9.1 -$19. -$1. Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.% 2.8% 2.% Industrial production.%.7%.7% Car & light truck sales (millions) Housing starts (millions) Oil price (dollars per barrel of West Texas Intermediate) $1.1 $. $1.8 Unemployment rate 6.%.6%.% Inflation rate (consumer price index) 2.% 2.% 2.% Treasury constant maturity 1-year rate 1.2% 1.7% 2.7% Treasury constant maturity 1-year rate.2%.6%.2% Change in J.P. Morgan narrow nominal dollar index -6.7% -1.% -.6% 2 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
5 Figure 1a - Forecast of GDP and related items Real GDP, chained 2 dollars Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
6 Figure 1b - Forecast of GDP and related items 7 6 GDP, current dollars Personal consumption expenditures 2 1 Nonresidential fixed investment 1 Residential investment Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
7 Figure 1c - Forecast of GDP and related items billions of constant dollars Change in business inventories Net exports of goods and services billions of constant dollars Government purchases 8 Industrial production Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
8 Figure 1d - Forecast of GDP and related items millions of units 18 Car and light truck sales millions of units 2. Housing starts percent Unemployment rate dollars per barrel Oil prices - West Texas Intermediate 1 6 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
9 Figure 1e - Forecast of GDP and related items GDP Deflator, chain-type price index 6 Inflation rate (CPI) Treasury 1-year rate Treasury 1-year rate percent 8 percent Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
10 Figure 1f - Forecast of GDP and related items 1 J.P. Morgan trade-weighted dollar Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
11 Table - GDP, current dollars Individual % % 6.% 2 7.1%.6% 6.8%.2% 7 6.8% 6.% 6.7% 6.% 1 6.7% 7.% % 1 6.7% 6.% 9 6.6%.% % 6.% 1 6.6%.% 2 6.% 6.1% 2 6.%.7% 21 6.% 6.% 2 6.% 6.2% 26 6.%.6% 2 6.% 6.% 22 6.%.9% 8 6.%.% 1 6.%.8% 12 6.%.% 1 6.%.6% %.6% % 6.6% 6.1% 6.7% 1 6.1%.9% 27 6.%.9%.%.1%.9%.%.8%.6% 2.7%.2%.9% 8.% GDP, current dollars MEDIAN 6.%.7% MEAN 6.2%.7% STD DEV.7% 1.% HIGH 7.1% 8.% LOW.9%.% 9 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
12 Table - GDP deflator, chain-type price index Individual % 27 2.%.% 11 2.% 2.7% 1 2.2% 2.8% % 2.8% 2 2.1% 2.7% 2 2.1% 2.% 18 2.% 19 2.% 2.2% 2 2.% 2.2% 1 2.% 2.1% 29 2.% 2.% 1 2.% 2.2% 1 1.9% 2.9% 1.9% 1.6% 7 1.9% 1.9% 2 1.9% 1.6% 2 1.8% 2.1% % 2.% 9 1.8% 1.% % 1.% 1.7% 2.% 1 1.7% 1.7% 1 1.% 1.% 16 1.% 1.% 8 1.% 1.1% 1.% 1.1% 12 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.% 1.2%.9% 1.1%.2% 2.8% 1.%.%.% GDP Deflator, chain-type price index 2 1 MEDIAN 1.8% 1.9% MEAN 1.7% 1.8% STD DEV.%.7% HIGH 2.%.% LOW.%.% 1 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
13 Table - Real GDP, chained 2 dollars Individual % 1 9.%.% 2.1%.1%.9%.%.8%.6%.8%.6% 6.8%.6% 7.8%.% 8.8%.% 9.7%.8% 1.7%.8% 11.7%.7% 12.7%.8% 1.7%.2% 1.6%.% 1.6%.1% 16.6%.% 17.%.% 18.% 19.%.% 2.%.8% 21.%.% 22.%.% 2.%.6% 2.%.% 2.%.8% 26.2% 2.7% 27.2%.% 28.2%.7% 29.1%.%.1%.8% 1.% 2.7% 2.9%.%.7%.%.7%.1% 2.% 6.% Real GDP MEDIAN.%.8% MEAN.6%.8% STD DEV 1.%.7% HIGH 9.% 6.% LOW 2.% 2.7% 11 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
14 Table 6 - Personal consumption expenditures Individual % 19.8%.7% 1 1.%.% 2.8%.% 11.%.% 29.%.2% 2.%.7%.%.% 26.1% 2.9% 7.1%.7% 8.1%.9%.1%.7% 1.%.% 16.%.% 6.%.2% 27.%.%.% 2.9% 19.%.9% 2.9%.% 1.9%.% 22.9%.2% 21.9%.1% 2.9%.% 1.9%.% 9.8%.% 2.7% 2.9% 18.7% 12.7%.2% 1.7%.%.% 2.8% 2.% 2.8% Personal Consumption Expenditures MEDIAN.%.% MEAN.7%.% STD DEV.%.6% HIGH 19.8%.7% LOW.% 2.8% 12 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
15 Table 7 - Nonresidential fixed investment Individual % 1 12.%.2% % 17.8% % 1.% 1 1.6% 11.7% 1.% 7.% 16 1.% 8.% 1 1.2% 1.6% 1.1% 11.6% 9 1.% 9.% 1 9.9% 8.8% 1 9.9% 7.2% 2 9.8% 9.1% 2 9.8% 8.9% 7 9.7% 9.2% 18 9.% 19 9.% 9.% % 9.2% 2 9.2% 1.7% 2 9.% 7.% % 9.2% 22 8.% 6.% 11 8.%.% 7.7% 6.7% % 2.% 2.7%.9% 27.%.% 29.8% 7.2%.%.1% 2.6% 7.8% Nonresidential fixed investment MEDIAN 9.% 8.6% MEAN 8.7% 8.2% STD DEV 2.%.% HIGH 12.% 17.8% LOW 2.6% 2.% 1 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
16 Table 8 - Residential investment Individual % 21.9% 11.% 11 8.%.% 6.2% 2.% 6.1% -.% 2.7% -2.% 18.6% 2.6% 1.% 22.% 1.1% 2.% -.%.1% -.6% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% -.9% 7.6% -.% 1.1% -.6% 9.%.8% 2.9%.8% 26.9% 2.9% 1.9% -1.9%.9% -9.2% 12.8% -.% 2.7%.8% 19.6% -.1% 16.% -12.9% 8.1% -7.6% 21.% -12.7% 27 2.% 2.% 2 2.% -6.2% % 1.% 1 1.8% -.% Residential investment MEDIAN.% -1.1% MEAN.9% -1.8% STD DEV.%.2% HIGH 21.9% 11.% LOW 1.8% -12.9% 1 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
17 Table 9 - Change in business inventories (billions of constant dollars) Individual $.8 2 $. $. 19 $.1 $67. 8 $.2 $6. 21 $8. $. 12 $2.7 $9.1 7 $2. $7. $1. $. 1 $. $. 2 $. $. 2 $. $. 1 $28.9 $7. $28.8 $ $28.8 $. 1 $28. $.7 1 $28.2 $ $ $2. $6. $22.7 $ $2. $. 9 $2. $2. 2 $18.1 $16. 1 $16.8 $1. 2 $16. $1. 11 $1.1 $1. $.8 -$1. 27 $1. $. 26 $1. $1. 2 $.2 $. $. -$.1 Change in business inventories billions of chained dollars MEDIAN $28.2 $. MEAN $2.8 $.8 STD DEV $12.9 $21.9 HIGH $. $67. LOW $. -$1. 1 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
18 Table 1 - Net exports of goods and services (billions of constant dollars) Individual $9.1 -$61.9 -$97.6 -$9.8 -$ $99. -$ $. -$ $7.7 -$ $8.2 -$ $1. -$. 27 -$1. -$ $1.8 -$8. 1 -$18.2 -$ $19. -$9. 9 -$19. -$ $ $2. -$. 26 -$2. -$ $2. -$2. 2 -$2. -$. 16 -$2.1 -$9. 7 -$2. -$ $2.7 -$9. 1 -$2. -$. 1 -$2. -$. -$2. -$ $2. -$7.1 -$28. -$ $. -$. 8 -$6.8 -$99. -$7. -$6. 1 -$6. -$1. Net exports of goods and services billions of chained dollars MEDIAN -$2. -$98.8 MEAN -$19. -$1. STD DEV $17. $. HIGH -$61.9 -$. LOW -$6. -$ Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
19 Table 11 - Government consumption and investment Individual % 1 6.1%.2%.8%.% 2.%.%.% 2.% 27.7% 2.1% 26.2% 1.% 11.2%.% 12.% 1.2% 2 2.7% 1.% 2 2.7%.% 1 2.%.1% 2.% 2.1% 9 2.% 1.6% 18 2.% 2.2% 2.% % 1.% 2.2% 1.6% 8 2.1% 2.7% % 1.% 7 2.1% 2.6% 2 2.1% 2.% 1 2.% 2.8% 1 2.% 1.% 16 2.% 1.% 2 1.9% 1.9% % 1.% 1 1.9% 2.1% 2 1.7% 1.% % 1.1% Government consumption and investment MEDIAN 2.2% 2.% MEAN 2.8% 2.% STD DEV 1.% 1.% HIGH 6.1%.% LOW 1.6% 1.1% 17 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
20 Table 12 - Industrial production Individual % 9 6.% 6.2%.9%.9% 7.7% 7.% 19.6% 7.2%.% 2.6%.%.6%.% 2.% 29.2% 6.8% 2.2% 6.2% 6.2%.% 2.1%.% 11.1%.% 1.%.% 1.%.1% 1.9%.6% 1.8% 6.% 12.8%.2% 2.8%.6% 16.8%.%.8%.% 21.7%.7% 8.7%.1% 22.6%.% 27.%.% 2.%.% 18.9%.6%.% 2 2.% 2.6% 1 2.% -.9% %.9% Industrial production MEDIAN.9%.2% MEAN.7%.7% STD DEV 1.% 1.8% HIGH 6.% 7.2% LOW 1.6% -.9% 18 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
21 Table 1 - Car and light truck sales (millions) Individual Car and light truck sales millions of units MEDIAN MEAN STD DEV.. HIGH LOW Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
22 Table 1 - Housing starts (millions) Individual Housing starts millions of units MEDIAN MEAN STD DEV.7.11 HIGH LOW Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
23 Table 1 - Oil price (dollars per barrel - West Texas Intermediate) Individual $ $1. $. 7 $9. $. 1 $8. $7. $8. $. 1 $8. $28. 1 $7.69 $6.2 2 $7.7 $. 19 $6.87 $ $6.7 $.8 16 $6.1 $2.8 $6. $. 2 $6. $. $6. $1. 6 $6. $28. 8 $.8 $1. 2 $. $. 21 $. $. 22 $.9 $1.1 $.8 $ $.8 $29.6 $.87 $. $. $ $2. $ $2. $ $2. $.2 2 $2. $. 26 $1.1 $1. 9 $29. $26.2 Oil prices - West Texas Intermediate dollars MEDIAN $.9 $1.2 MEAN $. $1.8 STD DEV $2.62 $.22 HIGH $1. $. LOW $29. $ Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
24 Table 16 - Unemployment rate Individual % 1 6.% 6.% 29.8%.% 27.7%.6%.7%.% 1.7%.% 19.7%.% 1.6%.2% 28.6%.6%.6%.% 16.6%.% 12.6%.% 22.6%.% 2.6%.% 26.6%.% 9.6%.% 1.6%.% 11.6%.% 1.6%.2% 17.%.%.%.%.%.% 6.%.% 2.%.% 8.%.2% 21.%.2%.%.2% 1.%.1%.%.1% 18.% 7.%.%.%.% 2.%.1% 2.%.1% 2.%.8% 2.%.2% Unemployment rate percent MEDIAN.6%.% MEAN.6%.% STD DEV.2%.% HIGH 6.% 6.% LOW.%.8% 22 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
25 Table 17 - Inflation rate (Consumer Price Index) Individual % 2.1% 2.7%.9%.1% 28.2%.%.2% 2.8% 1.%.%.% 2.7% % 2.9% 1 2.7% 2.8% 1 2.7% 2.1% 2 2.7% 1.7% % 2.9% % 2.% 2 2.% 2.8% 6 2.% 2.% 1 2.% 2.% 1 2.% 2.2% 7 2.% 2.8% 29 2.%.% 16 2.% 2.6% 19 2.% 2.2% 2.% 2.1% 18 2.% % 2.% % 2.% 2.2% 1.% 2 2.1% 2.% 1 2.1% 2.1% 8 2.1% 1.9% 2 2.%.% 2.% 2.% 2.% 1.8% 9 1.9% 2.% % 1.9% 12 1.% 1.2% 2 1.% 1.8% Inflation rate (CPI) percent MEDIAN 2.% 2.% MEAN 2.% 2.% STD DEV.6%.% HIGH.1%.% LOW 1.% 1.2% 2 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
26 Table 18 - Treasury constant maturity 1-year rate Individual % 1 2.7%.% 2 2.6% 2.% 1 2.%.% %.7% % 2.1% % 2.8% %.% 1.7% 2.% 1.7%.% %.1% % 2.2% %.6% % 2 1.6% 2.% %.19% 1.6% 2.2% 1 1.6% 1.71% 8 1.%.6% 6 1.%.% 9 1.% 2.% 26 1.% 1.7% % 2.6% 1.% 2.7% 16 1.% 2.7% 2 1.2% 2.% 2 1.1% 2.% Treasury 1-year rate percent MEDIAN 1.6% 2.7% MEAN 1.7% 2.7% STD DEV.8%.% HIGH 2.7%.6% LOW 1.1% 1.71% 2 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
27 Table 19 - Treasury constant maturity 1-year rate Individual % 1.2%.7% 1.%.% 2.9%.9% 11.91% 6.% 12.8% 6.2% 27.8%.% 29.8%.%.8%.7% 6.7%.%.7%.2% 2.71%.2% 16.62%.62%.62%.% 8.6%.7% 9.6%.% 1.6%.1% 1.7%.2% 18.% 2.%.7% 1.%.2%.%.% 26.%.% 19.2%.8% 7.1%.9% 21.%.9%.%.8% 22.%.7% 2.2%.7% 1.2%.% 2.1%.% Treasury 1-year rate percent MEDIAN.6%.2% MEAN.6%.2% STD DEV.2%.% HIGH.2% 6.2% LOW.1%.% 2 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
28 Table 2 - Change in J.P. Morgan narrow nominal dollar index Individual % 7.8% 2.9% 1 7.% 2.1% 11.%.% 1.% 1.2% % -.2% 1.1% -2.% 26 1.% 1.% 2-2.9% 2.7% % -1.% -.% -2.1% -.7% 1.% 27 -.% -.8% 9 -.% -.% 1 -.% -.2% 1-8.% -.9% 7-8.% -1.1% J.P. Morgan trade-weighted dollar MEDIAN -.1% -.7% MEAN -1.% -.6% STD DEV.9% 2.6% HIGH 7.8%.% LOW -8.% -.8% 26 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
29 Table 21a - Individual forecasts for 2 GDP Chain-type GDP Personal Change Net exports Government current price chained 2 consumption Nonresidential Residential in business of goods and consumption Individual dollars index dollars expenditures fixed investment fixed investment inventories services expenditures 1 6.% 2.2% 9.% 1.% 12.%.9% $. -$6. 6.1% 2 7.1% 1.9%.1%.% 11.2%.% $. -$ % 6.7% 1.7%.9%.% 1.1% 6.1% $1. -$2. 2.2% 6.8% 1.9%.8%.% 1.%.1% $. -$9.8.%.8%.%.8% 6.8%.% 7 6.8% 1.9%.8%.1% 9.7%.6% $2. -$2. 2.1% 8 6.% 1.%.8%.1% 11.6%.1% $.2 -$ % 9 6.6% 1.8%.7%.8% 1.%.% $2. -$19. 2.% 1 6.6% 1.7%.7%.9% 9.9%.7% $28.9 -$ % % 2.%.7%.% 8.% 8.% $1.1 -$..2% 12 6.% 1.%.7%.7% 8.8%.8% $2.7 -$..% 1 6.% 1.%.7%.% 1.6%.1% $28.2 -$2. 2.% 1 6.7% 1.9%.6%.9% 1.2%.9% $28. -$ % 1 6.7% 2.%.6% % 1.%.6%.% 1.%.% $2. -$2.1 2.% 17.% % 2.%.%.7% 9.%.6% $28. -$19. 2.% % 2.%.%.% 9.%.6% $.1 -$2. 1.6% 2 6.% 1.8%.%.7% 9.2% 2.% $16. -$1. 2.7% 21 6.% 1.8%.%.9% 9.2%.% $8. -$ % 22 6.% 1.8%.%.9% 8.%.% $28.8 -$ % 2 6.% 2.%.%.9% 9.8%.6% $.2 -$2. 2.1% 2 6.% 2.1%.%.% 9.8%.7% $. -$ % 2 6.% 2.1%.%.9% 9.%.7% $18.1 -$ % 26 6.% 2.2%.2%.1% 6.6%.9% $1. -$2..2% 27 6.% 2.%.2%.%.% 2.% $1. -$1..7% 28.2% % 2.%.1%.%.8% 1.9% $2. -$2. 2.2%.% 1.%.1% 1 6.1% 2.%.%.7% 9.9% 1.8% $16.8 -$2. 2.% 2.7%.8%.9%.8%.7%.9% $. -$2..% 6.1% 1.2%.7%.% 7.7% 6.2% $.8 -$7. 2.%.9% 1.1%.7% 19.8%.% 21.9% $22.7 -$61.9.8%.9% 1.% 2.%.1% 2.6%.9% $28.8 -$ % MEDIAN 6.% 1.8%.%.% 9.%.% $28.2 -$2. 2.2% MEAN 6.2% 1.7%.6%.7% 8.7%.9% $2.8 -$ % STD DEV.7%.% 1.%.% 2.%.% $12.9 $17. 1.% HIGH 7.1% 2.% 9.% 19.8% 12.% 21.9% $. -$ % LOW.9%.% 2.%.% 2.6% 1.8% $. -$6. 1.6% 27 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
30 Table 21b - Individual forecasts for 2 Change in Treasury Treasury J.P. Morgan Industrial Car & light Housing Oil Unemployment Inflation Rate constant maturity constant maturity narrow nominal Individual production truck sales starts Price Rate (CPI) 1-year rate 1-year rate dollar index 1 2.% $8. 6.%.% 2.%.% 2.1% $6..% 2.7% 2.6%.9%.9% $8..%.2% 1.7%.7% -.7%.8% $.8.6% 2.2% 1.%.% -.%.6% $..% 2.%.8% 6.2% $6..% 2.% 1.%.7% 7.7% $9..% 2.% 1.66%.1% -8.% 8.7% $.8.% 2.1% 1.%.6% 9 6.% $29..6% 1.9% 1.%.6% -.% 1.% $.8.6% 2.1% 1.6%.% -8.% 11.1% $2..6% 2.6% 1.79%.91%.% 12.8% % 1.% 1.7%.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.82.% 2.7% 1.91%.7% 1.9% $7.69.6% 2.% 1.88%.2% 7.% % 2.%.6% -.% 16.8% $6.1.6% 2.% 1.%.62% -.2% $2..% 2.2% 18.9% % 2.% 1.6%.% 19.6% $6.87.7% 2.% 1.8%.2% 2.2% % 2.% 21.7% $..% 1.9%.% 22.6% $.9.6% 2.2% 1.62%.% 2.% % 2.1% 1.2%.% $7.7.%.1% 1.6%.2% 2.8% $..% 2.% 1.72%.71% -2.9% % $1.1.6% 2.6% 1.%.% 1.% 27.% $2..7% 2.7% 1.72%.8% -.% $6.7.6%.2% 29.2% $1..8% 2.%.8% 1.7.% 2.% 1.% $8..7% 2.7% 2.7%.2%.% 2 2.% $2..% 1.% 1.1%.1%.% $6..%.% 1.6%.%.% $.87.7%.9% 7.8%.% $6..% 2.% 1.7%.62% 1.1% MEDIAN.9% $.9 2.% 2.% 1.6%.6% -.1% MEAN.7% $. 2.% 2.% 1.7%.6% -1.% STD DEV 1.%..7 $2.62.6%.6%.8%.2%.9% HIGH 6.% $1..1%.1% 2.7%.2% 7.8% LOW 1.6% $29. 1.% 1.% 1.1%.1% -8.% 28 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
31 Table 22a - Individual forecasts for 2 GDP Chain-type GDP Personal Change Net exports Government current price chained 2 consumption Nonresidential Residential in business of goods and consumption Individual dollars index dollars expenditures fixed investment fixed investment inventories services expenditures 1.6% 2.8%.%.%.2% -1.9% $. -$1..2% 2.6% 1.6%.1%.7% 1.% -.% $. -$9. 1.% 6.% 2.%.%.% 11.6% -.% $. -$2. 2.%.2% 1.6%.6% 2.9% 7.% -.6% -$.1 -$6.7 2.%.6%.%.6% 6.6%.2% 7 6.% 1.9%.%.7% 9.2% -.% $7. -$ % 8.% 1.1%.%.9% 17.8% -7.6% $6. -$ % 9.% 1.%.8%.% 9.%.8% $2. -$ % 1.% 1.7%.8%.% 8.8% -.9% $7. -$ % 11 6.% 2.7%.7%.%.%.% $1. -$..% 12.% 1.%.8%.2% 9.2% -.% $9.1 -$ % 1.8% 1.%.2%.% 11.7% -.6% $9.1 -$. 1.% 1 7.% 2.9%.%.% 1.6% 1.8% $.7 -$8. 2.1% 1 6.% 2.2%.1% 16.6% 1.%.%.% 8.% -12.9% $. -$9. 1.% 17.% % 2.2%.%.9% 9.% -.1% $67. -$ % 2 6.% 2.1%.8% 2.9% 1.7% -6.2% $1. -$..% 21 6.% 2.%.%.1% 9.2% -12.7% $. -$9. 1.% 22.9% 1.%.%.2% 6.% 1.1% $. -$88. 1.% 2.7% 2.2%.6%.% 8.9% 1.% $. -$. 2.% 2 6.1% 2.7%.% 2.8% 9.1% -2.% $. -$7. 1.% 2 6.2% 2.%.8%.% 7.%.8% $16. -$7. 1.9% 26.6% 2.8% 2.7% 2.9% 2.% 2.9% $1. -$2. 1.% 27.9%.%.%.%.% 2.% $. -$ % 28.7% % 2.%.%.2% 7.2% 1.% $. -$2. 1.%.1% 1.%.8% 1.9% 2.1% 2.7%.% 7.2% -.% $1. -$..1% 2.2% 1.%.%.%.9%.8% $. -$..% 6.7%.9%.% 2.8% 6.7% 2.% -$1. -$6. 2.1%.%.2%.1%.7%.1% 11.% $1.1 -$97.6.% 8.% 1.1% 6.%.7% 7.8% -9.2% $61.2 -$ % MEDIAN.7% 1.9%.8%.% 8.6% -1.1% $. -$ % MEAN.7% 1.8%.8%.% 8.2% -1.8% $.8 -$1. 2.% STD DEV 1.%.7%.7%.6%.%.2% $21.9 $. 1.% HIGH 8.%.% 6.%.7% 17.8% 11.% $67. -$..% LOW.%.% 2.7% 2.8% 2.% -12.9% -$1. -$ % 29 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
32 Table 22b - Individual forecasts for 2 Change in Treasury Treasury J.P. Morgan Industrial Car & light Housing Oil Unemployment Inflation rate constant maturity constant maturity narrow nominal Individual production truck sales starts Price rate (CPI) 1-year rate 1-year rate dollar index 1 -.9% $28. 6.%.%.%.% 2.% $..2% 1.7% 2.%.9%.9% $..% 2.8% 2.%.2% 1.%.% $29.6.% 1.% 2.7%.% -2.1%.% $29..% 1.8%.7% 6.% $28..% 2.%.%.% 7 7.% $..% 2.8%.6%.9% -1.1% 8.1% $1..2% 1.9%.6%.7% 9 6.2% $26.2.% 2.% 2.%.% -.% 1.1% $29.6.% 2.1% 1.71%.2% -.9% 11.% $28..% 2.9% 2.8% 6.%.% 12.2% % 1.2%.% 6.2% -.2% 1 6.% 1.7.1% 2.1%.7%.2% 1.6% $6.2.2% 2.% 2.1%.% 2.1% % 2.2%.1% -.2% 16.% $2.8.% 2.6% 2.7%.62% -1.% $27.2.% 2.% % $2.19.% 2.2% 2.6%.8% 2 6.2% %.% 21.7% $..2% 1.9%.9% 22.% $1.1.% 2.%.19%.7% 2.% % 2.% 2.%.7% $..% 2.7% 2.%.7% 2.6% $..1% 2.8% 2.2%.2% 2.7% 26.9% $1..% 2.% 1.7%.% 1.% 27.% $.2.6% 2.9%.1%.% -.8% $.8.6%.% % $..%.%.% % 2.% 1.% $7..% 2.8%.%.7% 1.2% 2 2.6% $..1% 1.8% 2.%.% 2.% $1..% 2.7% 2.2%.8% 2.6% $..%.1% 2.9%.6% $..1% 2.1%.%.% -2.% MEAN.7% $1.8.% 2.% 2.7%.2% -.6% MEDIAN.2% $1.2.% 2.% 2.7%.2% -.7% STD DEV 1.8%..11 $.22.%.%.%.% 2.6% HIGH 7.2% $. 6.%.%.6% 6.2%.% LOW -.9% $26.2.8% 1.2% 1.71%.% -.8% Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
33 Contributors Zachery Anderson David Berson/Orawin Velz Jarlath Costello Dave Czechowski Robert DiCianni Rick Dziobak George A. Erickcek Peter G. Glassman Manuel Gutierrez William Hickey Saul H. Hymans Van Jolissaint Paul Kasriel Jack Kleinhenz Frank Kolbe Les Koska Bernard Lashinsky David L. Littmann Dave Maaske Ken Mayland James Meil Don Nichols Bernard Paniak Robert Schnorbus Keith Schwer Carolyn Scott Laura Spingola Jim Stansell Mark Stevens Carl Tannenbaum Paul Taylor David Teolis Evert Van Der Heide Kenny Vieth Tom Webb Nissan North America Fannie Mae Ford Motor Company Portland Cement Association Ispat Inland Inc. Accuride Corp. W.E. Upjohn Institute Bank One Kohler Co. DTE Energy RSQE - University of Michigan DaimlerChrysler Northern Trust Kleinhenz & Associates The Association for Manufacturing Technology Consultant Consulting Economist Comerica Bank Charleston Orwig Clearview Economics Eaton Corporation University of Wisconsin - Madison BJP Economics J. D. Power and Associates University of Nevada, Las Vegas McCoy Scott & Company Trade Resources Ltd. Michigan House Fiscal Agency Volkswagen of America LaSalle Bank/ABN AMRO National Automobile Dealers Association General Motors Calvin College A.C.T. Research Co., LLC Manheim Auctions 1 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Eleventh Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June, 2
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