J.P. MORGAN. London December 6, 2013
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1 J.P. MORGAN London December 6, J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
2 December 6, 2013 J.P. MORGAN 1 STRATEGY & 2020 AMBITIONS 2 ACTIVATING GROUP LEVERS 3 FREE CASH FLOW AMBITION 4 COMMITMENT TO SHAREHOLDERS 5 OUTLOOK 2 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
3 December 6, 2013 J.P. MORGAN 1 STRATEGY & 2020 AMBITIONS 3 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
4 The Pillars of our Strategy Innovate to drive differentiation and loyalty Drive faster growth Continuously become more competitive 4 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
5 2020 Ambitions: 6 Objectives 1 Product performance leadership 4 Commitment to the wellbeing and development of our employees 2 Leadership in responsible operations 5 Live in harmony with our communities 3 Sustainable financial performance 6 Advocacy: fostering better life through sustainable mobility 5 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
6 3 Sustainable Financial Performance Deliver a structural 1billion Free Cash Flow from ,000m 517m 599m 500m / 2014 target 2020 target 2020 ROCE: 15% 10.5% 10.9% 12.8% 15% 5.4% 9% value creation threshold target 6 JP Morgan December 6, 2013
7 December 6, 2013 J.P. MORGAN 2 ACTIVATING GROUP LEVERS: Innovation, the Michelin s DNA Capturing Growth Competitiveness Plan 7 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
8 Innovation: Emissions Regulations Drive a Valorized Demand for Energy-Saving Tires CO 2 fleet emission targets (g(co 2 )/km) Rolling resistance demanded by premium OEM s EU USA JAPAN CHINA RR maxstandard tire RR max-green & Electric tire BMW * Source: EU Commission (*to be validated), Parliament and Council; EPA, DOT and NHTSA; JAMA; ICCT; Roland Berger 2012 OE Valorization of Michelin new low rolling resistance technologies Price index 100 for standard tire Standard tire Generation 1 Generation 2 Generation 3 8 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
9 Innovation: Vertical Integration to Insource the Technology and Retain Value Added The Indonesian project Synthetic rubber plant scheduled to come on stream in 2017 Joint venture with Petrokimia Butadiene Indonesia Total investment: $435m Michelin contribution: 55% Strategic vision for vertical integration Secure supply Maintain and protect the technology Retain the value added Costs 9 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
10 Innovation: Benefits of Tall and Narrow Tires Carrying the Same Load as a Standard Tire REFERENCE SIZE (ex: 205/60-16) TALL & NARROW SIZE (ex: 185/65-19) Rolling resistance Hydroplaning Tire mass Noise Tire & wheel assembly mass Comfort Cornering stiffness Tall & Narrow tires take advantage from their larger Overall Diameter to reduce rolling resistance & noise and improve aquaplaning & comfort Longevity Natural benefits of Tall &Narrow tires in aquaplaning, noise & comfort can be exchanged to reduce even more rolling resistance through: Tread pattern optimization Tire pressure increase 10 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
11 A Continuing Focus on Innovation through Michelin Innovation Ecosystem Group R&D in 2012: 622M 2,9% of Net Sales 6,600 people * Corporate Innovation Board: Mission: Define Group s innovation strategy to serve its growth. Govern the innovation dynamics in line with the strategy. 11 Members: Group CEO; Head of RDI; Heads of Business Lines and Materials; Directors of Commerce, Corporate Development, Strategic Anticipation and Sustainable Development and 2 External expert members 11 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
12 OE and Replacement Premium Tire Growth Outpaces the Market OE North America, South America, China, Europe market (in million of tires) RT North America, South America, China, Europe market (in million of tires) Overall premium market to rise by more than 50% between 2010 and J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
13 Premium Car Tire Segment is a Major Growth Opportunity Being Seized by Michelin Passenger Car OE: 57% of 2012 homologations on 17 tires Growth in the replacement Car & Light truck market (YoY change at end-september 2013, in %) Total market Market 17 Michelin sales 17 Total market Market 17 Michelin sales 17 Western Europe North America China 39 Brazil J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
14 Growth: Partner Distribution is a Strong Asset for Premium Brands Share of Account FRANCHISED DEALERS High OWNED DEALERS High Working Capital Nil Intensive Entrepreneurship Strategy ++ Offensive + Defensive 14 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
15 Growth: Increasing Network of Franchised Dealers from 2,000 Points of Sale Today to 5,000 by 2017 TYREPLUS Franchise 1,385 3,540 EUROMASTER Franchise 628 1,700 North America Africa India Eastern Europe China 840 1, Middle-East ASEAN South America 3 Pilot J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
16 Competitiveness Plan: 1billion* 317m achieved in 18 months with weak volumes OBJECTIVES - 200m/ - 300m - 200m/ - 300m - 500m/ - 600m SG&A Materials Manufacturing Transport gains H objective H gains Total gains 2012 gains H objective H gains Total gains 2012 gains H objective H gains Total gains *before inflation and including avoided cost 16 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
17 Competitiveness: Improve our Manufacturing Efficiency Tonnes per employee (base 100 in 2006) Continuous improvement + industrial footprint Production Tonnes per employee 17 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
18 Competitiveness: Improve our Manufacturing Efficiency Plant size, in 000 of tonnes Avg: 70 KT Avg: 96 KT 50% 11 plants In 2018, half of all finished product output will come from plants with more than 150,000 Tonnes of capacity If market demand falls short of our growth forecast, we ll have to adapt our manufacturing footprint % 24 plants 50 0 Plant capacity utilization PC/LT 85% 91% Truck Specialty 76% 90% 90% 94% 18 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
19 The June-2013 Projects will Eventually Deliver more than 70m in Productivity Gains a Year mainly in Truck Development of a highly competitive Truck tire production center in La Roche-sur-Yon, doubling output from 800,000 to 1.6 million units a year by 2019 Closure project of Truck tire facilities in France, Algeria and Colombia In millions Cash in (asset sales) Productivity o/w Truck Non-recurring expense (250) (250) o/w cash out (42) (70) (25) (10) +23 Total Non-recurring expense Net cash (135) Annual gains after J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
20 Competitiveness: Deploying New, Standardized, Cross-Functional Operating Procedures and IS Becoming more Agile and Competitive Increase sales and market share by offering customers differentiating services Increase the efficiency of accounting & finance, purchasing and sales administration processes Significantly improve supply chain responsiveness and reduce inventory Manage margins more precisely and reduce production costs Annual program costs: around 100 million over the next five years Expected outcomes in 2017: At least a 200 million reduction in annual SG&A and supply chain costs At least a 250 million reduction in inventory 20 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
21 Competitiveness in our Distribution Network Euromaster key figures: 3,200 points of sales in 17 countries in Europe (including Turkey) 1 st fleet provider in Truck and Passenger car 1,845m net sales in 2012 Approx. 10% of Passenger car net sales and approx. 20% of Truck net sales An efficiency plan aligned with European market environment: Restructuring lower-profitablity dealerships Optimizing SG&A 21 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
22 December 6, 2013 J.P. MORGAN 3 Free Cash Flow Ambition 22 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
23 Raising our structural FCF from 500m to 1billion Deliver a structural 1billion Free Cash Flow from ,000m 517m 599m 500m / 2014 target 2020 target 23 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
24 Working Capital Requirements: Continuing Improvement In Net sales % 25% 22.4% 20.2% 21.1% 22.2% 20.6% 15% 15.0% 15.6% 15.5% 14.8% 13.0% Inventories Receivables 9.2% 8.4% 10.1% 9.8% 9.3% Payables (-) 5% Inventory improvement through new business management program and local for local production Shorter customer terms of payments in new markets 24 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
25 FCF Generation: Deploying new, standardized, cross-functional operating procedures and IS Becoming more Agile and Competitive Increase sales and market share by offering customers differentiating services Increase the efficiency of accounting & finance, purchasing and sales administration processes Significantly improve supply chain responsiveness and reduce inventory Manage margins more precisely and reduce production costs Annual program costs: around 100 million over the next five years Expected outcomes in 2017: At least a 200 million reduction in annual SG&A and supply chain costs At least a 250 million reduction in inventory 25 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
26 FCF Generation: Reducing Capex beyond 2015 Capex and depreciation (in millions) Capex Depreciation 1, ,996 1,007 2,000 1,100 2,200 1,900 1,200 2,200 1,700 1,300 1,900 1,600 1,400 1,800 1, e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 26 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
27 Capital Programs Being Deployed on Schedule to Capture Growth BRAZIL (Michelin-brand Car & Light truck in large rim diam.): Ramp-up: from 17KT end-2013 to 30KT end-2014 CHINA (Michelin-brand Car & Light truck in large rim diam. and Truck): Ramp-up: from 25KT end-2013 to 57KT end-2014 INDIA (Michelin Radial Truck): 1 st tire in July 2013 ramping up to 12KT in 2014 UNITED STATES (Mining giant tires): 1 st tire end-2013 Gradual reduction in start-up costs from J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
28 Our Asset: Profitability Remaining High Despite Weaker Markets Operating profit and margin (before non-recurring items) & ROCE 2, , % 13 2,000 1,500 1,000 1, % 9.7% ,945 1, % 10.5% 9.5% 9.4% 11.3% 11.3% 1, % 5.8% 6 5.6% 5.4% H Operating profit (in m) Operating margin (as a % of net sales) ROCE after Tax (in %) 28 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
29 December 6, 2013 J.P. MORGAN 4 4 COMMITMENT TO SHAREHOLDERS 29 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
30 Dividend Policy: a 30% Pay-out Dividend per share (in ) Pay-out target: 30% of Group Net Income (excluding non recurring expenses) Reinvestment option for dividends 30 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
31 December 6, 2013 J.P. MORGAN 5 4 OUTLOOK 31 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
32 2013 Markets in Line with the Original Scenario EUROPE NORTH AMERICA NEW MARKETS MINING 32 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
33 Markets on a Good Trend: Q3 Confirmed Q2 Positive Trend 2013 worldwide markets by quarter (% change YoY, based on number of tires) +5% Original Equipment Replacement +8% +8% +6% +6% +4% +4% +4% -1% -2% Source: Michelin -3% -2% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 33 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
34 Specialty Main Markets: Contrasted Trends Earthmover Mining: slower growth Mining Markets (in tons, base 100 in 2009) e Other Earthmover: difficult market conditions Original Equipment: sharp decline Infrastructure: continued inventory draw-downs Agricultural market: stable overall but dynamic in technical tires 34 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
35 Michelin Benefitting from Market Growth in a Stabilizing Pricing Environment % change YoY Volumes Price-mix Currency Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
36 2013: Steering FCF Well in Line with Structural 500m Objective FCF well in line with structural objective of 500m Capital spending of around 2bn Unfavorable currency environment impact of around - 250m Operating Income* excluding the Currency Effect up around 150m YoY Volumes up in Q4 Margin management: positive price-mix / raw materials ratio Tighter management of production costs and SG&A ROCE > 11% * : before non-recurring 36 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
37 2014 Outlook: Improving Market Demand Trend MATURE MARKETS NEW MARKETS SPECIALTY MARKETS Mining 2014 operating margin* targets: SR1 SR2 SR3 from 10 to 12% in the middle from 7 to 9% at the upper end from 20 to 24% at the lower end * : before non-recurring 37 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
38 December 6, 2013 J.P. MORGAN 5 APPENDICES 38 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
39 Europe: Rebound Confirmed in the West and Downturn in Eastern Europe in 3 rd Quarter Quarterly performance at September 30, 2013 (% change YoY, in number of tires) Original Equipment Replacement +10% +11% +6% +6% +4% +2% +2% +2% +2% Source: Michelin -3% -9% -9% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 39 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
40 North America: Recovery in Car and Light Truck Market; Truck Market Still Uncertain Quarterly performance at September 30, 2013 (% change YoY, in number of tires) Original Equipment Replacement +7% +6% +5% +8% +1% +0% +0% -1% -1% Source: Michelin -7% -12% -13% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 40 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
41 Passenger Car and Light Truck Tire Market: Markets on a Good Trend in October as Expected 41 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
42 Truck Tire Market: Confirmed rebound in October In Europe 42 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
43 Car & Light truck Margins: Grow OE Profitability and Lift Mix through Product Innovation and 17 &+ Strategy Operating profit and margin (before non-recurring items) 12% 1, ,014 1,018 1, % 2015 op. margin target 10.3% 10% % % 9.3% 600 8% % H Operating profit (in m) Operating margin (as a % of net sales) 43 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
44 Truck Margins: Ready to Lift Margins thanks to Plant Efficiency, Product & Service Plan Operating profit and margin (before non-recurring items) 1, % 6.6% 6.5% 9% 2015 op. margin target 7% % 3.5% % % H Operating profit (in m) Operating margin (as a % of net sales) 44 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
45 Specialty Tires: Strong Margins at Targetted Levels Operating profit and margin (before non-recurring items) % 17.9% % % 26% 24% 23.3% 2015 op. margin target % % H Operating profit (in m) Operating margin (as a % of net sales) 45 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
46 Investments on 17 Capacity and Flexibility: Optimizing Cash Use through Conversions Group 17 maximum available capacity (base 100, in millions of tires, all brands) Conversions Additions J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
47 Mining Business: Favorable, Enduring Market Structure Customer demand focused on cost reduction and dumper uptime A wide base of profitable customers such as: No credible substitute product High degree of independence from suppliers: - proprietary processes - vertical integration in semi-finished products Multiple barriers to entry: - capital intensity, - no turnkey plant, - high technological content, - testing capabilities Long-term partnership relations with customers 47 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
48 Contacts Investor Relations Valérie Magloire Matthieu Dewavrin +33 (0) , cours de l île Seguin Boulogne-Billancourt - France investor-relations@fr.michelin.com 48 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
49 Disclaimer "This presentation is not an offer to purchase or a solicitation to recommend the purchase of Michelin shares. To obtain more detailed information on Michelin, please consult the documentation published in France by Autorité des marchés financiers available from the website. This presentation may contain a number of forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes that these statements are based on reasonable assumptions at the time of the publication of this document, they are by nature subject to risks and contingencies liable to translate into a difference between actual data and the forecasts made or induced by these statements." 49 J.P. Morgan December 6, 2013
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