Fiscal Policies in High Debt

Transcription

1 Antonella Cavallo Pietro Dallari Antonio Ribba Fiscal Policies in High Debt Euro-Area Countries * ) Springer

2 Contents 1 Introduction The Controversial Macroeconomic Outcomes of Fiscal Policy Does the Euro Area Needs a Fiscal Union? The Macroeconomic Outcomes of Fiscal Policy in High Debt Euro Area Countries Spillovers of German Fiscal Policies in the Euro Area 7 References 9 2 The Common Framework for National Fiscal Policies and the Euro Area Fiscal Union Introduction The Common European Framework for National Fiscal Policies Preventive Arm Corrective Arm Towards a Euro-Area Budget for the Fiscal Union? Some Comparison with Existing Federal States The Euro-Area Budget Architecture: Some Proposais From the Literature Other Proposais for Fiscal Union: Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers The Effects of Government Spending Shocks in the Euro Area. Selected Literature Measuring Fiscal Policy at the Euro Area Level The Response of Variables to a Euro-Area Government Spending Shock The Response of Variables to a Euro-Area Government Investments Shock 35 vii

3 viii Contents 2.6 An Alternative Identification Strategy of Government Spending Shocks Recovering Government Spending Shocks by Sign Restrictions Government Investment Shocks The Effects of Government Spending Shocks Under an Accommodative Monetary Policy Fiscal Multipliers: Results Conclusions 43 Appendix 1. Some Further Robustness Analysis 44 Data Appendix 46 References 47 3 The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks: A Review of the Literature Introduction Alternative Methodologies for the Identification of Fiscal Shocks Structural VARs and Identification of Fiscal Shocks Alternative Definitions of Fiscal Multipliers The Dynamics Effects of Fiscal Shocks in the US Economy The Estimated Effects of Fiscal Shocks in the European Economy Fiscal Shocks and International Spillover Effects Macroeconomic Factors Shaping the Effects of Fiscal Policy The Degree of Openness and the Exchange Rate Regime The Monetary Policy Stance The Role of Public and Private Debt Identification of Fiscal Shocks and Fiscal Foresight Conclusions 79 References 81 4 The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Shocks in High Debt Euro Area Countries Introduction Some Descriptive Statistics for the National Economies The Econometric Approach Estimation Results: The Responses of Variables to Monetary and Fiscal Shocks The Response of National Variables to a Contractionary Common Monetary Policy Shock The Response of National Variables to a Domestic Government Spending Shock 99

4 Contents ix The Response of National Variables to a Domestic Government Revenues Shock Estimation Results: Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations in the Six Countries The Degree of Integration of Domestic Business Cycle in the European One Conclusions 106 References A Further Look To Macroeconomic Outcomes of Fiscal Austerity in High Debt Countries Introduction The Estimated VAR Models The Responses of Consumption to Government Spending Shocks Greece Italy Portugal Ireland Netherlands Spain Estimation Results: Output Fiscal Multipliers Conclusions 129 References Can (And Should) Germany Do It? Spillovers of German Fiscal Policies in the Euro Area Introduction The Estimated Model Data Results German Government Spending Multiplier and Spillovers in the Euro Area The Domestic and International Transmission of Spending Shocks Conclusions 149 References The Labor Market Outcomes of Austerity. Evidence for Europe Introduction The Methodology Data and Model Specification Identification of the Shocks The Results 164

5 x Contents The Labor Market Outcomes Allocative Effects Across Sectors Spending Reversais Conclusions 174 References 175 Index 177