Economics. Output Gap. Unit 12.2A: Macroeconomic equilibrium. Разрыв ВВП

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1 Economics Unit 12.2A: Macroeconomic equilibrium Output Gap Разрыв ВВП

2 Remember If the distance between Q1 and Qf is a positive - "inflationary" GDP gap If the distance between Q1 and Qf is a negative - "recessionary" GDP gap When the economy is experiencing both stagnation (falling output) and inflation (rising prices), such an event is sometimes called stagflation

3 Increases in AD: Demand-Pull Inflation Inflationary," GDP gap As shown by the rise in the price level from P1 to P2 in Figure 29.8, the increase in aggregate demand beyond the full-employment level of output causes inflation. This is demand-pull inflation because the price level is being pulled up by the increase in aggregate demand. Also, observe that the increase in demand expands real output from the full-employment level Qf to Q1. The distance between Q1 and Qf is a positive, or "inflationary," GDP gap. Actual GDP exceeds potential GDP.

4 Decreases in AD: Recession and Cyclical Unemployment But now we add an important twist to the analysis a twist that makes use of the fact that fixed prices lead to horizontal aggregate supply curves (a fact explained earlier in this chapter in the section on the immediateshort-run aggregate supply curve). What goes up the price level does not always go down. Deflation a decline in the price level is a rarity in the American economy. Suppose, for example, that the economy represented by Figure 29.9 moves from a to b, rather than from a to c. The outcome is a decline of real output from Qf to Q1, with no change in the price level. In this case, it is as if the aggregate supply curve in Figure 29.9 is horizontal at P1, to the left of Qf, as indicated by the dashed line. This decline of real output from Qf to Q1 constitutes a recession, and since fewer workers are needed to produce the lower output, cyclical unemployment arises. The distance between Q1 and Qf is a negative, or "recessionary," GDP gap the amount by which actual output falls short of potential output. "recessionary" GDP gap

5 Decreases in AS: Cost-Push Inflation stagflation Suppose that a major terrorist attack on oil facilities severely disrupts world oil supplies and drives up oil prices by, say, 300 percent. Higher energy prices would spread through the economy, driving up production and distribu-tion costs on a wide variety of goods. The U.S. aggregate supply curve would shift to the left, say, from AS 1 to AS 2 in Figure The resulting increase in the price level would be cost-push inflation. The effects of a leftward shift in aggregate supply are doubly bad. When aggregate supply shifts from AS 1 to AS 2, the economy moves from a to b. The price level rises from P1 to P2 and real output declines from Qf to Q1. Along with the cost-push inflation, a recession (and negative GDP gap) occurs. That is exactly what happened in the United States in the mid-1970s when the price of oil rocketed upward. Then, oil expenditures were about 10 percent of U.S. GDP, compared to only 3 percent today. So, as indicated in this chapter s Last Word, the U.S. economy is now less vulnerable to cost-push inflation arising from such aggregate supply shocks. That said, it is not immune from such shocks.

6 Increases in AS: Full Employment with Price-Level Stability Between 1996 and 2000, the United States experienced a combination of full employment, strong economic growth, and very low inflation. Specifically, the unemployment rate fell to 4 percent and real GDP grew nearly 4 percent annually, without igniting inflation. At first thought, this macroeconomic bliss seems to be incompatible with the AD-AS model. The aggregate supply curve suggests that increases in aggregate demand that are sufficient for over-full employment will raise the price level (see Figure 29.8). Higher inflation, so it would seem, is the inevitable price paid for expanding output beyond the full-employment level. But inflation remained very mild in the late 1990s. Explanation in McConnell, p651

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