Future of the Algerian Defense Industry Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to Report Price: US$ 1250 (Single User)

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1 Future of the Algerian Defense Industry Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020 Report Price: US$ 1250 (Single User)

2 Future of the Algerian Defense Industry Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020 Summary Future of the Algerian Defense Industry Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020 report offers the reader detailed analysis of the defense budget over the next five years. Alongside it offers insights into the market opportunities and entry strategies adopted by foreign OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) to gain a market share in the Algerian defense industry. The report provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations during , including highlights of the key growth stimulators. It also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas. Key Findings With a defense budget of US$XX billion in 2015, Algeria is currently the largest military spender in the African region and the world s tenth largest defense importer of military goods. The military expenditure is strongly supported by the presence of the oil and natural gas industry, where the revenues are directed towards strengthening defense and security. An increased threat of terrorism from the Islamist group, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) operating in North Africa, an arms race with neighboring countries such as Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, and the ongoing modernization of the armed forces are factors driving military expenditure. The Algerian defense industry is expected to grow from US$XX billion in 2016 at a CAGR of XX% over the forecast period to reach US$XX billion by Key Features and Benefits The report provides detailed analysis of the Algerian defense industry during , including the factors that influence the military expenditure. It provides detailed expectations of growth rates and projected total expenditure. It provides the manufacturers with insights on market opportunities along with industry structure and dynamics prevalent in the country. In addition, the report focuses on the regulations governing the Algerian defense industry and the potential market entry strategies with an expert analysis of the competitive structure. 2

3 Defense expenditure (US$ Billion) Growth rate (%) Future of the Algerian Defense Industry Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 1.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast Algerian defense budget anticipated to grow at a CAGR of XX% during During , Algeria s defense budget increased from US$XX billion in 2011 to US$XX billion in 2015, growing at a robust CAGR of XX%. With increasing prices of oil and petroleum, the growing economy is focusing on enhancing its military capabilities. The country has emerged as the leader in military expenditure throughout the African region owing to its focus on the modernization of its armed forces. Even though the growth rate of military and internal security expenditure over the forecast period is estimated to be slower than that during the historic period, it is likely to grow at a CAGR of XX% in the next five years, to reach US$XX billion in The following table and figure show the Algerian defense expenditure during the historic period: Table 1: Algerian Defense Expenditure, Year Defense expenditure (US$ bn) Defense growth percentage CAGR Source: Ministry of Defense and SDI analysis Figure 1: Algerian Defense Expenditure, Defense expenditure (US$ bn) Defense growth percentage 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Source: Ministry of Defense and SDI analysis 3

4 Defense expenditure (US$ Billion) Growth rate (%) Future of the Algerian Defense Industry Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020 The following table and figure show projected defense expenditure of the Algerian over the forecast period: Table 2: Algerian Defense Expenditure, Year Defense expenditure (US$ bn) Defense growth percentage Source: Ministry of Defense and SDI analysis CAGR Figure 2: Algerian Defense Expenditure, % 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Defense expenditure (US$ bn) Defense growth percentage 0% Source: Ministry of Defense and SDI analysis 4

5 Defense Budget Split (%) Future of the Algerian Defense Industry Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation Ministry of Defense allocated an average of XX% of capital expenditure during the review period The Algerian MoD allocated an average of XX% of capital expenditure between 2011 and 2015, and the share is anticipated to grow at an average CAGR of XX% over the forecast period on account of internal and external instability and several modernization efforts. The country witnessed a significant amount of expenditure on military procurements including Kilo-class submarines, Tiger class corvettes, A200 frigates, T- 90S main battle tanks, Su-30MK fighter-jets, 1,200 armored personnel carrier, and landing plat form dock (LPD). The remaining portion of the defense budget is allocated for revenue expenditure, which includes training, salaries, and defense exercises. Furthermore, in 2012, the government passed a three -year retrospective decree allowing a XX% increase in the salaries of the armed forces along with revaluation of the retirement of military personnel. The following table and chart display Algerian s defense budget share of capital, revenue and other expenditure during the historic period: Table 3: Algerian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), Year Capital Expenditure Share Revenue Expenditure Share Source: Ministry of Finance, Algeria and SDI analysis SDI Figure 3: Algerian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Capital Expenditure Share Revenue Expenditure Share Source: Ministry of Defense and SDI analysis 5

6 Defense Budget Split (%) Future of the Algerian Defense Industry Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020 The following table and chart display Algeria s defense budget share of capital, revenue and other expenditure over the forecast period: Table 4: Algerian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), Year Capital Expenditure Share Revenue Expenditure Share Source: Ministry of Finance, Algeria and SDI analysis Figure 4: Algerian Defense Budget Split Between Capital, Revenue and Othe r Expenditure (%), % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Capital Expenditure Share Revenue Expenditure Share Source: Ministry of Defense and SDI analysis 6

7 Future of the Algerian Defense Industry Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to Industry Dynamics - Porter s Five Forces Analysis Figure 4: Industry Dynamics Porter s Five Forces Analysis Barrier to Entry Bargaining Pow er of Supplier Intensity of Rivalry Bargaining Pow er of Buyer Threat of Substitute Source: SDI analysis 7

8 Future of the Algerian Defense Industry Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020 Report Methodology SDI s dedicated research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals with a background in industry research and consulting in the defense sector. The following research methodology is followed for all databases and reports: Secondary Research The research process begins with exhaustive secondary research to source reliable qualitative and quantitative information related to the defense market. The secondary research sources that are typically referred to include, but are not limited to: Industry associations National government documents and statistical databases Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, broker reports, investor presentations Industry trade journals and other literature Internal and external proprietary databases News articles, press releases, and webcasts specific to the companies operating in the market Primary Research SDI conducts hundreds of primary interviews a year with industry participants and commentators in order to validate its data and analysis. A typical research interview fulfills the following functions: Provides first-hand information on market size, market trends, growth trends, competitive landscape, and future outlook Helps to validate and strengthen secondary research findings Further develops the analysis team s expertise and market understanding Primary research involves interactions, telephone interviews, and face-to-face interviews for each market category, division, and sub-division across geographies The participants who typically take part in such a process include, but are not limited to: Conventions Industry participants: CEOs, VPs, business development managers, market intelligence managers, and national sales managers External experts: investment bankers, valuation experts, research analysts, and key opinion leaders specializing in defense markets Currency conversions are performed on the basis of average annual conversion rate format calculations All the values in tables, with the exception of com pounded annual growth rate (CAGR) and compounded annual rate of change (CARC), are displayed to one decimal place; therefore, due to this rounding method, growth rates may appear inconsistent with absolute values The forecasted values are projected on the basis of nominal values; the inflation was not taken into account 8

9 Future of the Algerian Defense Industry Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction What is this Report About? Definitions Summary Methodology SDI Terrorism Index About Strategic Defence Intelligence Executive Summary Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast Algerian annual defense expenditure to reach US$XX billion by Rising threat of terrorism and arms race in the region todrive Algeria s defense expenditure Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation Capital expenditure share expected to reach an average of XX% during the forecast period The country s defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP increased during Per capita defense expenditure expected to further increase during the forecast period Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast Homeland Security market in Algeria isanticipated to grow at a CAGR of XX% during Human trafficking and drug trafficking form the main components of homeland security expenditure Algeria is at significant risk from external and internal threats Algeria faces a significant threat from terrorists Benchmarking with Key Global Markets Algerian defense expenditure expected to increase at a CAGR of XX% over the forecast period Algerian military expenditure is limited compared to countries with the largest defense expenditure Algeria spent over XX% of its GDP on defense in Algeria is significantly affected by terrorism Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators Armored Personnel Carrier Border Security Transport Aircraft Infrastructure Construction Defense Procurement Market Dynamics Import Market Dynamics Algerian defense imports are expected to increase over the forecast period Russia was the leading supplier of arms to Algeria during

10 Future of the Algerian Defense Industry Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to Aircraft accounted for the largest percentage share of overall defense imports Export Market Dynamics Algeria does not export arms due to an undeveloped domestic arms industry Industry Dynamics Five Forces Analysis Bargaining power of the supplier: low to medium Bargaining power of the buyer: medium Barriers to entry: high Intensity of rivalry: low to medium Threat of substitution: high Market Entry Strategy Market Regulation Offset policy to be formed soon to ensure growth of the country s domestic defense manufacturing industry Foreign direct investment (FDI) in defense Market Entry Route Collaborations provide market entry opportunities Government-to-government agreements are the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs Key Challenges Corruption and lack of transparencypose an obstacle for market entry Lack of relevant defense procurement policy Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights Competitive Landscape Overview Foreign suppliers manufacture defense systems overseas and deliver to Algeria Rosoboronexport: overview Rosoboronexport: products and services Rosoboronexport: recent announcements and strategic initiative Rosoboronexport: alliances Rosoboronexport: recent contract wins Key Domestic Companies Entreprise Nationale des Véhicules Industriels: overview Entreprise Nationale des Véhicules Industriels Vehicles: products and services Entreprise Nationale des Véhicules Industriels: recent announcements and strategic initiatives Entreprise Nationale des Véhicules Industriels: alliances NIMR-Algerie Joint Stock Company: overview NIMR-Algerie Joint Stock Company: products and services Khenchela Mechanical Constructions Establishment (ECMK): overview

11 Future of the Algerian Defense Industry Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to Khenchela Mechanical Constructions Establishment: products and services Khenchela Mechanical Constructions Establishment: recent announcements and strategic initiatives Khenchela Mechanical Constructions Establishment: alliances Seriana Company of Industrial Achievements (ERIS): overview Seriana Company of Industrial Achievements: products and services National office of Explosive substances, EPE (ONEX): overview National Office of Explosive Substances: products and services Business Environment and Country Risk Demographics & Social Statistics Total Rural Population Total Urban Population Number of households Economic Performance GDP Per Capita GDP, Current Prices Consumer Price Index Wholesale Price Index Local Currency Unit per US Dollars Local Currency Unit per DZD Lending Rate Deposit Rate Real Interest Rate International reserves, including gold External Debt External Debt as % of GDP Energy and Utilities Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation Hydroelectricity Net Generation Nuclear Electricity Net Generation Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity Electricity Exports Electricity Imports Proved Natural Gas Reserves Petroleum Consumption Crude Oil Proved Reserves Infrastructure Air transport, freight

12 Future of the Algerian Defense Industry Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to Minerals Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output Telecommunication Telephone Lines Telephone Lines Penetration Rate Appendix About SDI Disclaimer

13 13 Future of the Algerian Defense Industry Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Algerian Defense Expenditure, Figure 2: Algerian Defense Expenditure, Figure 3: Algerian Defense Expenditure (DZD Billion), Figure 4: Algerian Defense Expenditure (DZD Billion), Figure 5:AlgerianDefense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), Figure 6: Algerian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), Figure 7: Algerian GDP Grow th vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Grow th, Figure 8: Algerian GDP Grow th vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense ExpenditureasPercentage of GDP Grow th, Figure 9: Algerian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), Figure 10: Algerian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), Figure 11: Algerian Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ billion), Figure 12: Algerian Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ billion), Figure 13: Algerian Homeland Security Expenditure (DZD billion), Figure 14: Algerian Homeland Security Expenditure (DZD billion), Figure 15: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, Figure 16: SDI Terrorism Index...34 Figure 17: Benchmarking w ith Key Markets vs Figure 18: Defense Expenditure of the World s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2015 and Figure 19: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), Figure 20: Algeria s Armored Personnel Carrier Market Size (US$ Million), Figure 21: Algeria s Border Security Market Size (US$ Million), Figure 22: Transport Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), Figure 23: Algeria s Infrastructure Construction Market Size (US$ Million), Figure 24: Algerian Defense Import Trend, (TIV values*)...46 Figure 25: Algerian Defense Import by Country, (TIV values)...47 Figure 26: Algerian Defense Imports by Category (%), Figure 27: Industry Dynamics Porter s Five Forces Analysis...50 Figure 28: Algerian Rural Population (In Millions), Figure 29: Algerian Urban Population (In Millions), Figure 30: Algerian Number of Households (In Millions), Figure 31: Algerian GDP Per Capita, Figure 32: Algerian GDP, Current Prices (US$ Billion), Figure 33: Algerian Consumer Price Index, Figure 34: Algerian Wholesale Price Index, Figure 35: Local Currency per USD, Figure 36: Local Currency per DZD, Figure 37: Lending Rate (%), Figure 38: Deposit Rate (%), Figure 39: Real Interest Rate (%), Figure 40: Algerian International reserves, including gold (US$ Billion), Figure 41: Algerian External Debt (US$ Billion), Figure 42: Algerian External Debt as % of GDP (%), Figure 43: Algerian Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilow att hours), Figure 44: Algerian Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion Kilow att hours), Figure 45: Algerian Nuclear Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilow att hours), Figure 46: Algerian Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilow atts), Figure 47: Algerian Electricity Exports (Billion Kilow att hours), Figure 48: Algerian Electricity Imports (Billion Kilow att hours), Figure 49: Algerian Proved Natural Gas Reserves (Trillion Cubic Feet), Figure 50: Algerian Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day), Figure 51: Algerian Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels), Figure 52: Algerian Air transport freight (million ton-km), Figure 53: Algerian Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ Billion), Figure 54: Algerian Telephone Lines (In Million), Figure 55: Algerian Telephone Lines Penetration Rate (Per 100 People),

14 14 Future of the Algerian Defense Industry Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2020 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Algerian Defense Expenditure, Table 2: Algerian Defense Expenditure, Table 3: Algerian Defense Expenditure (DZD Billion), Table 4: Algerian Defense Expenditure (DZD Billion), Table 5: Algerian Defense Budget Split Betw een Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), Table 6: Algerian Defense Budget Split Betw een Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), Table 7: Algerian GDP Grow th vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Grow th, Table 8: Algerian GDP Grow th vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Grow th, Table 9: Algerian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), Table 10: Algerian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), Table 11: Algerian Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ billion), Table 12: Algerian Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ billion), Table 13: Algerian Homeland Security Expenditure (DZD billion), Table 14: Algerian Homeland Security Expenditure (DZD$ billion), Table 15: Benchmarking w ith Key Markets vs Table16: SDI Terrorism Index...39 Table 17: Rosoboronexport Product Focus...56 Table 18: : Rosoboronexport -Alliances...57 Table 19: : Rosoboronexport Recent Contract Wins...57 Table 20: Entreprise Nationale des Véhicules Industriels Product Focus...58 Table 21: Entreprise Nationale des Véhicules Industriels - Alliances...59 Table 22: NIMR-Algerie Joint Stock Company product focus...60 Table 23: Khenchela Mechanical Constructions Establishment (ECMK) Product Focus...61 Table 24: Khenchela Mechanical Constructions Establishment (ECMK) Alliances...61 Table 25: Seriana Company of Industrial Achievements Product Focus...62 Table 26: National Office of Explosive Substances Product Focus...62