Report Price: US$ 1250 (Single User) Future of the Pakistani Defense Industry Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2019

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1 Report Price: US$ 1250 (Single User) Future of the Pakistani Defense Industry Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2019

2 Summary Future of the Pakistani Defense Industry Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2019 report offers the reader detailed analysis of the defense budget over the next five years. Alongside it offers insights into the market opportunities and entry strategies adopted by foreign OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) to gain a market share in the Pakistani defense industry. The report provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations during , including highlights of the key growth stimulators. It also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas. Key Findings Pakistan s total defense budget increased significantly over , with a CAGR of XX%; the country invested US$XX billion in the defense sector in 2010, and increased it to US$XX billion in This trend is expected to continue during the forecast period, due to the government s well-defined military procurements plans, in a bid to fight terrorist attacks. Moreover, the nation s long-standing territorial dispute with India indicates that the Pakistani defense strategy will largely correspond with India s spending and development programs. The Pakistani defense budget is projected to increase from US$XX billion in 2015, to US$XX billion in 2019, at a CAGR of XX%. Pakistan is expected to allocate an average of XX% of its GDP to defense expenditure over the forecast period, despite its relatively small economy. Per capita defense expenditure is forecasted to increase from US$XX in 2014 to US$XX in Key Features and Benefits The report provides detailed analysis of the Pakistani defense industry during , including the factors that influence the military expenditure. It provides detailed expectations of growth rates and projected total expenditure. It provides the manufacturers with insights on market opportunities along with industry structure and dynamics prevalent in the country. In addition, the report focuses on the regulations governing the Pakistani defense industry and the potential market entry strategies with an expert analysis of the competitive structure. 2

3 Defense budget (US$ Billion) Defense expenditure growth rate (%) 1. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 1.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast Pakistani annual defense expenditure to reach US$XX billion by 2019 The Pakistani defense budget grew from US$XX billion in 2010 to US$XX billion in 2014, at a CAGR of XX%. Territorial conflicts with neighboring countries and efforts to counter the increasing threat from terrorist groups remain the prime commitment of the government, and it is working out a well-defined military hardware procurement plan to support this aim. Between 2010 and 2014, the government added a range of advanced equipment to its fleet; including JF-17 Block 1 jets, F-16C/D fighters, Saab 2000 Erieye aircraft, Shaanxi ZDK-03 aircraft, Z-9C helicopters, Al-Zarrar and Al-Khalid armored vehicles, Zulfiquar class frigate, and Azmat class patrol boats. With the procurement of advanced weapons expected to continue over the forecast period, the defense expenditure is expected to reach US$XX billion by 2019, from US$XX billion in 2015, at a CAGR of XX%. The following table and figure show the Pakistani defense expenditure between 2010 and 2014: Table 1: Pakistani Defense Expenditure, Year Defense expenditure (US$ bn) Defense growth percentage Source: Ministry of Defense and SDI analysis CAGR Figure 1: Pakistani Defense Expenditure, % % 15% 10% 5% % Defense Expenditure (US$ bn) Defense Growth Percentage Source: Ministry of Defense and SDI analysis 3

4 Defense budget (US$ Billion) Defense expenditure growth rate (%) The following table and figure show projected defense expenditure of Pakistan over the forecast period: Table 2: Pakistani Defense Expenditure, Year Defense expenditure (US$ bn) Defense growth percentage Source: Ministry of Defense and SDI analysis CAGR Figure 2: Pakistani Defense Expenditure, Defence Expenditure (US$ bn) Defense expenditure growth % 12.0% 11.8% 11.6% 11.4% 11.2% 11.0% 10.8% 10.6% 10.4% 10.2% 10.0% Source: Ministry of Defense and SDI analysis 4

5 Defense Budget Share (%) 1.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation Capital expenditure share to average XX% during the forecast period Pakistan s capital expenditure share is expected to increase during the forecast period due to internal and external instability. Consequently, the share of capital expenditure as a percentage of overall defense expenditure is expected to increase from an average of XX% between 2010 and 2014 to XX% over the forecast period. Major procurements expected during the forecast period include armored vehicles, submarines, naval ships, and fighter jets. Research and development projects will also get a significant portion of the country s capital expenditure. The following table and chart display Pakistan s defense budget share of capital and revenue expenditure between 2010 and 2014: Table 3: Pakistani Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), Year Capital Expenditure Share Revenue Expenditure Share Source: Ministry of Finance, Pakistan and SDI analysis Figure 3: Pakistani Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Capital Expenditure Revenue Expenditure Source: Ministry of Defense and SDI analysis 5

6 Defense Budget Share (%) The following table and chart display Pakistan s defense budget share of capital and revenue expenditure over the forecast period: Table 4: Pakistani Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), Year Capital Expenditure Share Revenue Expenditure Share Source: Ministry of Finance, Pakistan and SDI analysis Figure 4: Pakistani Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Capital Expenditure Revenue Expenditure Source: Ministry of Defense and SDI analysis 6

7 Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Bn) Growth rate (%) 1.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast Allocation for police forms the major component of homeland security expenditure Under the heading of public order and safety, an amount of US$XX billion was assigned for homeland security purposes in The budget increased at a CAGR of XX% from US$XX billion in Expenditure on homeland security in Pakistan is driven by factors such as organized crime and cyberattacks. A major portion of the budget, XX%, was allocated to the police, a trend expected to continue over the forecast period. The budget is projected to grow from US$XX billion in 2015 to reach US$XX billion in 2019, at an estimated CAGR of XX%. The Pakistani government is expected to equip law enforcement officers with state of the art surveillance and monitoring technologies in order to maintain a strict vigil along the country s borders. The table and chart below show Pakistan s homeland security expenditure between 2010 and 2014: Table 5: Pakistani Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ billion), Year Homeland expenditure (US$ billion) % Growth Source: Ministry of Finance, Pakistan and SDI analysis Figure 5: Pakistani Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ billion), % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Homeland Security Defense Expenditure (US$ Bn) Growth Rate (%) Source: Ministry of Finance, Pakistan and SDI analysis 7

8 2. Industry Dynamics - Porter s Five Forces Analysis Figure 4: Industry Dynamics Porter s Five Forces Analysis Barrier to Entry Bargaining Power of Supplier Intensity of Rivalry Bargaining Power of Buyer Threat of Substitute Source: SDI analysis 8

9 Report Methodology SDI s dedicated research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals with a background in industry research and consulting in the defense sector. The following research methodology is followed for all databases and reports: Secondary Research The research process begins with exhaustive secondary research to source reliable qualitative and quantitative information related to the defense market. The secondary research sources that are typically referred to include, but are not limited to: Industry associations National government documents and statistical databases Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, broker reports, investor presentations Industry trade journals and other literature Internal and external proprietary databases News articles, press releases, and webcasts specific to the companies operating in the market Primary Research SDI conducts hundreds of primary interviews a year with industry participants and commentators in order to validate its data and analysis. A typical research interview fulfills the following functions: Provides first-hand information on market size, market trends, growth trends, competitive landscape, and future outlook Helps to validate and strengthen secondary research findings Further develops the analysis team s expertise and market understanding Primary research involves interactions, telephone interviews, and face-to-face interviews for each market category, division, and sub-division across geographies The participants who typically take part in such a process include, but are not limited to: Conventions Industry participants: CEOs, VPs, business development managers, market intelligence managers, and national sales managers External experts: investment bankers, valuation experts, research analysts, and key opinion leaders specializing in defense markets Currency conversions are performed on the basis of average annual conversion rate format calculations All the values in tables, with the exception of compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) and compounded annual rate of change (CARC), are displayed to one decimal place; therefore, due to this rounding method, growth rates may appear inconsistent with absolute values The forecasted values are projected on the basis of nominal values; the inflation was not taken into account 9

10 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction What is this Report About? Definitions Summary Methodology SDI Terrorism Index About Strategic Defence Intelligence Executive Summary Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast Pakistani annual defense expenditure to reach US$XX billion by Territorial disputes and the war against terrorism expected to drive defense expenditure The country s defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP to increase over Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation Capital expenditure share to average XX% during the forecast period Budget allocation for army to be highest over the forecast period Army expenditure to grow at a CAGR of XX% over the forecast period to reach US$XX billion in Air force expenditure to cumulatively value US$XX billion over the forecast period Naval expenditure is expected to reach US$XX billion by Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase during the forecast period Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast Allocation for police forms the major component of homeland security expenditure Measures to curb organized crime and cyber-attacks will drive the homeland security expenditure Pakistan is at a significant risk from external and internal threats Benchmarking with Key Global Markets Pakistani defense expenditure expected to increase at a CAGR of XX% over Pakistani defense expenditure is low compared to other Asian defense spenders Pakistan s defense expenditure expected to reach XX% of GDP by Pakistan is one of the most terror prone countries in the world Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators Fighter and Multi-role Aircraft SSK-Diesel Electric Submarine Aviation MRO Main Battle Tank (MBT)

11 4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics Import Market Dynamics Defense imports projected to increase over the forecast period US and China were the leading suppliers of arms to Pakistan during Aircraft and ships account for the majority of defense imports between 2009 and Export Market Dynamics DEPO expected to start defense exports Industry Dynamics Five Forces Analysis Bargaining power of the supplier: low to medium Bargaining power of the buyer: high Barriers to entry: medium to high Intensity of rivalry: low to medium Threat of substitution: low to medium Market Entry Strategy Market Regulation Defense procurements assigned to DGDP and DGMP Market Entry Route Foreign firms enter the Pakistani defense industry through Foreign Military Sales (FMS) Collaborations and joint ventures a viable market entry route Key Challenges Corruption in Pakistani defense sector hinders its growth Unstable political system coupled with internal instability discourages foreign participation Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights Competitive Landscape Overview Foreign suppliers manufacture defense systems overseas and deliver to Pakistan Growing domestic defense industry is predominantly state run Key Domestic Companies Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works: overview Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works: products and services Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works: recent announcements and strategic initiatives Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works: alliances Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works: recent contract wins Pakistan Aeronautical Complex: overview Pakistan Aeronautical Complex: products and services Pakistan Aeronautical Complex: recent announcements and strategic initiatives Pakistan Aeronautical Complex: alliances

12 Pakistan Aeronautical Complex: recent contract wins Pakistan Ordnance Factories: overview Pakistan Ordnance Factories: products and services Pakistan Ordnance Factories: recent announcements and strategic initiatives Pakistan Ordnance Factories: alliances Pakistan Ordnance Factories: recent contract wins Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission: overview Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission: products and services Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission: recent announcements and strategic initiatives Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission: alliances Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission: recent contract wins Heavy Industries Taxila: overview Heavy Industries Taxila: products and services Heavy Industries Taxila: recent announcements and strategic initiatives Heavy Industries Taxila: alliances Heavy Industries Taxila: recent contract wins The Heavy Mechanical Complex: overview The Heavy Mechanical Complex: products and services The Heavy Mechanical Complex: recent announcements and strategic initiatives The Heavy Mechanical Complex: alliances SATUMA: overview SATUMA: products and services SATUMA: recent announcements and strategic initiatives SATUMA: recent contract wins Key Foreign Companies Boeing: overview Boeing: products and services Boeing: recent announcements and strategic initiatives Boeing: recent contract wins Raytheon: overview Raytheon: products and services Raytheon: recent announcements and strategic initiatives Raytheon: recent contract wins Lockheed Martin: overview Lockheed Martin: products and services Lockheed Martin: recent announcements and strategic initiatives Lockheed Martin: alliances

13 Lockheed Martin: recent contract wins Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group: overview Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group: products and services Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group: recent announcements and strategic initiatives Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group: alliances Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group: recent contract wins Business Environment and Country Risk Demographics & Social Statistics Total Rural Population Total Urban Population Number of Households (In mn) Economic Performance GDP Per Capita GDP, Current Prices Consumer Price Index Local Currency Unit per US Dollar Local Currency Unit per Euro Market Capitalization of Listed Companies Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP) Government Cash Surplus/Deficit Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP Goods exports as % of GDP Goods imports as % of GDP Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP Service Imports as % of GDP Service Exports as % of GDP Service Trade Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP Foreign Direct Investment Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP International reserves, including gold External Debt External debt as % of GDP Energy and Utilities Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation Hydroelectricity Net Generation Nuclear Electricity Net Generation Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity Proved Natural Gas Reserves

14 Petroleum Consumption Crude Oil Proved Reserves Infrastructure Rail Lines Air transport, freight Minerals Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output Technology Patents Granted Telecommunication Telephone Lines Telephone Lines Penetration Rate Appendix About SDI Disclaimer

15 15 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Pakistani Defense Expenditure (US$ Bn), Figure 2: Pakistani Defense Expenditure (US$ Bn), Figure 3: Pakistani Defense Expenditure (in PKR Billion), Figure 4: Pakistani Defense Expenditure (in PKR Billion), Figure 5: Pakistani GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, Figure 6: Pakistani GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, Figure 7:Pakistani Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), Figure 8: Pakistani Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), Figure 9: Pakistani Defense Expenditure Breakdown (%), Figure 10: Pakistani Defense Capital Expenditure Breakdown (%), Figure 11: Pakistani Defense Expenditure for Army (US$ billion), Figure 12: Pakistani Defense Expenditure for Army (US$ billion), Figure 13: Pakistani Defense Expenditure for Army (in PKR bn), Figure 14: Pakistani Defense Expenditure for Army (in PKR bn), Figure 15: Pakistani Defense Expenditure for Air Force (US$ billion), Figure 16: Pakistani Defense Expenditure for Air Force (US$ billion), Figure 17: Pakistani Defense Expenditure for Air Force (PKR billion), Figure 18: Pakistani Defense Expenditure for Air Force (PKR billion), Figure 19: Pakistani Defense Expenditure for the Navy (US$ billion), Figure 20: Pakistani Defense Expenditure for the Navy (US$ billion), Figure 21: Pakistani Defense Expenditure for the Navy (PKR billion), Figure 22: Pakistani Defense Expenditure for the Navy (PKR billion), Figure 23: Pakistani Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), Figure 24: Pakistani Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), Figure 25: Pakistani Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), Figure 26: Pakistani Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), Figure 27: Pakistani Homeland Security Budget (PKR billion), Figure 28: Pakistani Homeland Security Budget (PKR billion), Figure 29: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, Figure 30: Benchmarking with Key Markets vs Figure 31: Defense Expenditure of the World s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2014 and Figure 32: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), Figure 33: SDI Terrorism Index, Figure 34: Fighter and Multi-role Aircraft Market Size (US$ Billion), Figure 35: SSK-Diesel Electric Submarine Market Size (US$ Million), Figure 36: Aviation MRO Market Size (US$ Million), Figure 37: Main Battle Tank Market Size (US$ Million), Figure 38: Pakistani Defense Import Trend, (TIV values) Figure 39: Pakistani Defense Imports by Country (%), Figure 40: Pakistani Defense Imports by Category (%), Figure 41: Industry Dynamics Porter s Five Forces Analysis Figure 42: Pakistan s Rural Population (In Millions), Figure 43: Pakistan s Urban Population (In Millions), Figure 44: Pakistan s Number of Households (In mn), Figure 45: Pakistan s GDP Per Capita, Figure 46: Pakistan s GDP, Current Prices (In US$ Billions), Figure 47: Pakistan s Consumer Price Index, Figure 48: Local Currency per US$- Exchange Rate, Figure 49: Local Currency per Euro, Figure 50: Pakistan s Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), Figure 51: Pakistan s Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP), Figure 52: Pakistan s Government Cash Surplus/Deficit (LCU Billion), Figure 53: Pakistan s Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP, Figure 54: Pakistan s Goods Exports as % of GDP, Figure 55: Pakistan s Goods Imports as % of GDP, Figure 56: Pakistan s Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP,

16 16 Figure 57: Pakistan s Service Imports as % of GDP, Figure 58: Pakistan s Service Exports as % of GDP, Figure 59: Pakistan s Service Trade Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP, Figure 60: Pakistan s Foreign Direct Investment (US$ Billion), Figure 61: Pakistan s Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP, Figure 62: Pakistan s International reserves, including gold (US$ Billion), Figure 63: Pakistan s External Debt (US$ Billion), Figure 64: Pakistan s External Debt as % GDP, Figure 65: Pakistan s Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), Figure 66: Pakistan s Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), Figure 67: Pakistan s Nuclear Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), Figure 68: Pakistan s Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatt hours), Figure 69: Pakistan s Proved Natural Gas Reserves (Trillion Cubic Feet), Figure 70: Pakistan s Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day), Figure 71: Pakistan s Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (Billion Barrels), Figure 72: Pakistan s Rail Lines (kms), Figure 73: Pakistan s Air transport freight (million ton-km), Figure 74: Pakistan s Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (USD Billion), Figure 75: Pakistan s Patents Granted, Figure 76: Pakistan s Telephone Lines (In Million), Figure 77: Pakistan s Telephone Lines Penetration Rate (Per 100 People),

17 17 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Pakistani Defense Expenditure (US$ Bn), Table 2: Pakistani Defense Expenditure (US$ Bn), Table 3: Pakistani Defense Expenditure (in PKR Billion), Table 4: Pakistani Defense Expenditure (in PKR Billion), Table 5: Pakistani GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, Table 6: Pakistani GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, Table 7: Pakistani Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), Table 8: Pakistani Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), Table 9: Pakistani Defense Capital Expenditure Breakdown (%), Table 10: Pakistani Defense Capital Expenditure Breakdown (%), Table 11: Pakistani Defense Expenditure for Army (US$ billion), Table 12: Pakistani Defense Expenditure for Army (US$ billion), Table 13: Pakistani Defense Expenditure for Army (in PKR bn), Table 14: Pakistani Defense Expenditure for Army (in PKR bn), Table 15: Pakistani Defense Expenditure for Air Force (US$ billion), Table 16: Pakistani Defense Expenditure for Air Force (US$ billion), Table 17: Pakistani Defense Expenditure for Air Force (PKR billion), Table 18: Pakistani Defense Expenditure for Air Force (PKR billion), Table 19: Pakistani Defense Expenditure for the Navy (US$ billion), Table 20: Pakistani Defense Expenditure for the Navy (US$ billion), Table 21: Pakistani Defense Expenditure for the Navy (PKR billion), Table 22: Pakistani Defense Expenditure for the Navy (PKR billion), Table 23: Pakistani Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), Table 24: Pakistani Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), Table 25: Pakistani Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), Table 26: Pakistani Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), Table 27: Pakistani Homeland Security Budget (PKR billion), Table 28: Pakistani Homeland Security Budget (PKR billion), Table 29: Benchmarking with Key Markets vs Table30: SDI Terrorism Index Table 31: FMS route followed by Foreign Companies Table 32: Key Foreign Companies and Operations in the Pakistani Defense Industry Table 33: Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works Product Focus Table 34: Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works - Alliances Table 35: Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works - Recent Contract Wins Table 36: Pakistan Aeronautical Complex Product Focus Table 37: Pakistan Aeronautical Complex - Alliances Table 38: Pakistan Aeronautical Complex - Recent Contract Wins Table 39: Pakistan Ordnance Factories Product Focus Table 40: Pakistan Ordnance Factories - Alliances Table 41: Pakistan Ordnance Factories Recent Contract Wins Table 42: Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission Product Focus Table 43: Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission - Alliances Table 44: Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission recent contract wins Table 45: Heavy Industries Taxila product focus Table 46: Heavy Industries Taxila alliances Table 47: Heavy Industries Taxila recent contract wins Table 48: The Heavy Mechanical Complex product focus Table 49: The Heavy Mechanical Complex alliances Table 50: SATUMA product focus Table 51: SATUMA recent contract wins Table 52: Boeing Product Focus Table 53: Boeing Recent Contract Wins Table 54: Raytheon Product Focus Table 55: Raytheon Recent Contract Wins Table 56: Lockheed Martin Product Focus... 94

18 18 Table 57: Lockheed Martin alliances Table 58: Lockheed Martin Recent Contract Wins Table 59: Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group Product Focus Table 60: Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group - Alliances Table 61: Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group Recent Contract Wins... 98