Chapter - Trends in Fish Production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry

Transcription

1 Chapter - Trends in Fish Production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry

2 4.1. Introduction During the First and Second Five Year Plans the Union Territory of Pondicherry was in a transitional stage politically. The Directorate of Fisheries was set up only in During the earlier plan periods, concentration was made on the organisational set up of the Directorate. Planned development was focused upon at a later stage. However, from the third five year plan onwards, the Government of Pondicherry introduced several schemes leading to the development of the fisheries sector. It is pertinent to analyse the extent of development and other consequential issues associated with the development. Among the objectives of this study are the following: (i) (ii) to identify changes in the production structure in the wake of mechanisation and motorisation; to examine the trends in fish production during the postliberalisation period. In order to examine these objectives, attention has been focused in this chapter on the analysis of the trends in total fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry. The Fisheries sector in the Union Territory underwent the process of mechanisation of fishing crafts in the 70s, motorisation of traditional crafts since the 80s and the economic liberalisation from the 90s. It becomes necessary to analyse the impact of these processes on the production of marine fish in the Union Territory. It is essential to find out whether the processes have helped in increasing the marine fish production and, if so, whether the growth is a sustained one. It is also necessary to determine whether different species of fish have registered an appreciable growth during the period of study

3 or whether any species has become extinct. For this purpose, one has to analyse the fluctuations that have taken place in fish production during the period of study. Analysis in this chapter is presented under the following sub-titles: Part-I: Quantum of Marine and Inland Fish Production Part-11: Region-wise Comparison of Marine and Inland Fish Production Part-111: Species-wise Marine Production Part - I Analysis of Quantum of Marine and Inland Fish Production in the Union Territory of Pondieherry First, the quantum of fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry is discussed in this Part. It is followed by a comparison with the situation at All India level. Then the quantum and the value of fish production in the Union Territory are considered Quantum of fish production during the period to Fish produce comes from two sources, viz. (i) marine water resources and (ii) inland water resources. The annual data pertaining to the quantum of fish production in marine and inland sectors in Ponhcherry Union Territory during the period to were collected by the researcher. (i) The percentage share of marine fish production to total fish production and (ii) the percentage share of inland fish production to total fish production are calculated for each year. The data and the results on the percentage share are presented in Table-4.1:

4 Table-4.1 : Quantum and sector-wise percentage of fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry from to Year Quantum of fish production (in tonnes) Marine Inland Total ~ U I I ) L. ~ ~ C ~ L I u~we r epur )a uj uur wua baa1 Welfare, Government of Pondicherry. Percentage to total fish production Marine Inland p

5 The overall idea that one gets from Table-4.1 is that there has been substantial improvement in the quantity of fish production in both sectors, marine and inland, from the year to the year The quantum of marine fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry increased from 8, tonnes in to 40,105 tonnes in , Thus, the quantity of marine fish production in is 4.6 times that of In the case of inland fish production, the quantity rose from tonnes in to 4,910 tonnes in indicating an appreciable increase by 84 times. As regards the total fish production in the same period, the quantity enhanced horn 8, tonnes to tonnes, indicating an increase by 5.2 times, which is slightly more than the figure arrived at for marine fish production. It follows from this analysis that the quantity of fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry is predominantly determined by that of marine fish production rather than inland fish production. Inspite of the increase in the quantum of fish production in the first year to the last year of the study period, the data presented in Table-4.1 also indicate year to year fluctuations in marine as well as inland fish production, This makes it imperative to measure the fluctuation in each year. For the purpose of comparison, a uniform measure is required. This can be obtained as a percentage. The data can be looked at from two perspectives. (i) The fluctuation in the relative percentage share of a sector (marine or inland) to the total fish production, (ii) The fluctuations in the individual sector. First, the fluctuations in the relative percentage share are taken up for consideration. The marine sector, which started with a percentage share of 99.3 per cent in ended up with a decreased tally of 89.1 per cent in On the other hand, the inland fish production, which had a meagre share of 0.7 per cent in increased to 10.9 per cent during The results indicate gradual increase of the percentage share of inland fish production to total fish production during the period of study, even though

6 marine fish production has a dominant role in terms of absolute values of the quantum of production. The appreciable increase in the percentage share of inland fish production over the period of study is attributed to the following factors: (i) In the early part of the study period, traditional varieties of fish alone were available for catch in the inland sector which did not have much market potential. varieties were much in demand. In comparison to inland varieties, the marine (ii) As the population increased, the demand for fish could not be met from marine sector alone. In view of this fact, efforts were made for the development of inland fisheries sector. As a result, modern farming technologies were introduced leading to the emergence of hatcheries, advanced and intensive fish culture, introduction of new varieties of fish, improved feeds, supply of oxygen through aerator, scientific control of diseases, etc. (iii) Since there was overexploitation in the marine sector, the fish production could not be a sustained one. As a consequent, the other source of fish supply had to be explored. Under these circumstances, the Government focused attention on inland fish production and plans were drawn up for the promotion of this sector. (iv) The technical and financial assistance through subsidies provided by the Government enabled the farmers to undertake inland fish farming extensively in more areas. (v) The new fish varieties from the inland sector were qualitatively different from the traditional varieties and, as such, they attracted demand in the market. Next, the fluctuations in the individual sector of fish production are taken up for consideration. From the year onwards, the percentage growth rate of fish production is calculated for each year in comparison with the previous year and the results obtained are presented in the following table.

7 Table-4.2: Annual percentage growth rate of fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry from to Annual Growth Rate(%) Year Marine Inland Total production production production Source: Same as table 4.1. figures computed.

8 Year + Marine -+Inland - - -k - - Total Fig.4.1: Average Annual Growth Rate of Fish Production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry from By referring to Table-4.2, it is noticed that there are fluctuations in the growth rates of fish production in respect of marine fish varieties and inland fish varieties. In the case of marine fish production, the growth rate fluctuation varied from to 36.9 per cent. As regards inland fish production, corresponding variation was to per cent. While considering the total fish production, it is seen that the growth rate ranged from to 37.1 per cent. The maximum growth rate for marine fish production occurred during the year and for inland fish production during the year Out of the 40 years of the study period, the marine fish production showed an increasing trend during 31 different years and a decreasing trend during the other 9 years. The inland fish production witnessed an increasing trend in 27 years and a decreasing trend in 13 years. The total fish production exhibited an increasing trend during 32 years while there was decreasing trend during 8 years. In 22 years there was an increasing trend in both marine and inland fish production. During 4 years, there was a decreasing trend in both marine and inland fish production. During 14 years, whenever there was increase in marine fish production, there was decrease in inland fish production and vice versa. During 8 years, there was increase of

9 marine fish production with decrease in inland fish production. During 6 years, there was decrease in marine fish production while there was increase in inland fish production. There was continuously decreasing trend both in marine and inland fish production during the 3 years to Continuously increasing trend is observed in both sectors during the following periods: (i) to (ii) to (iii) to (iv) to The fact that total fish production recorded an increasing trend during 32 years, out of 40 years of study period and that all the periods of continuously increasing trend occurred during post mechanisation / post motorization period which can be taken as an indication of the positive impact of technological progress on production Sub period analysis of quantity of fish production in the Union Territory In order to evaluate the performance of fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry, it is worthwhile to consider the situation arising out of technological changes and economic reforms. Hence, the period of analysis is divided into four sub periods: Sub period 1: Period of pre-rnechanisation from 1961 to 1969 Sub period 2: Period of mechanisation from 1970 to 1979 Sub period 3: Period of motorisation from 1980 onwards Sub period 4: Period of economic liberalisation since 1991 The data obtained on the quantity of fish production are analysed for each sub period for the purpose of comparison of performance and to derive important conclusions which would serve as appropriate inputs in the

10 preparation of an action plan to be implemented in future for the economic upliftment of fishermen in the Union Territory of Pondicherry Statistical parameters for fish production The statistical parameters considered for the analysis of fish production in the four sub periods are computed for each sector and presented in Table-4.3. Table-4.3: Statistical parameters for fish production I Marine production / Inland production / Total production Mean Mean S.D. C.V. Sub Period I ( ) Sub Period ( ) Sub Period ( ) Sub Period IV ( ) From Table-4.3, it is observed that annual mean fish production in the second sub period is more than that in the first sub period for marine as well as inland fish production. Also, the corresponding figures for the third sub period are more than those for the second sub period; the same phenomenon is noticed when one compares the corresponding figures pertaining to the fourth and third sub periods. This indicates the growth of fish production in Pondicherry Union territory from one sub period to another. It is further seen that the mean value of fish production is more in the case of marine varieties compared to inland varieties in each sub-period. This points to the dominant position continuously occupied by marine fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry as against inland fish production. While one considers the statistical parameter of standard deviation, an identical phenomenon is noticed

11 for marine as well as inland varieties; this value increased from the first sub period to the second sub period and from the second sub period to the third sub period and then it decreased during the fourth sub period. As regards the statistical parameter of coefficient of variation for marine fish production, it increased from the first sub period to the second sub period and from the second sub period to the third sub period and then it decreased during the fourth sub period. On the other hand, the value of the coefficient of variation for inland fish production increased from the first sub period to the second sub period and decreased from the second sub period to the third sub period and the same trend continued and further got reduced during the fourth sub period. This indicates that the behaviour of marine fish production was inconsistent in the different sub periods whereas inland fish production, which started with an appreciable degree of inconsistency, gradually reached a state of consistency over the four sub periods. The remarkable improvement in the behaviour of inland fish production has to be attributed to various schemes of development and incentive measures offered by the Government of Pondicherry for the development of inland sector which made the development a sustained one Analysis with three year moving average Next, the data are analysed with the help of three year moving average. In general, the data during a period in a time series may be influenced by the data of the immediate past period and the immediate succeeding period. In order to account for this phenomenon, the data during a period is smoothened with the help of the other two data. If yl, yz, ys, are the observed values for three consecutive periods tl, t2, t3, in the time series, then the value for the intermediate period t2, is smoothened as y defined by the rule, Y = (Y1+yz+y3)/3.

12 Then, one proceeds with the required calculations by replacing the actual values of the time series with the corresponding smoothened values. The method of three year moving average is applied to the time series data on marine fish production and the smoothened values are calculated for the four sub periods. The rate of growth of mean output in a sub period compared to that in the immediate past period is worked out. The results are presented in the Table-4.4. From Table-4.4, it is observed that the marine fish production in the Union Territory in the mechanisation period grew by per cent compared to the pre-mechanisation period. The growth during the period of motorisation in relation to the period of mechanisation works out to per cent. The growth during the period of economic liberalisation in relation to the period of motorisation comes to per cent. In these three cases, the growth rate per annum works out to 6..99, 3.69, 8.83 per cent respectively. As a result of this analysis, it is seen that the period of economic liberalisation has witnessed the highest growth per annum compared to the period of motorisation.

13 Table 4.4 : Trends of marine fish production ( to ) - sub period-wise Pre-rnechanisation period Mechanisation period Motorisation period Liberalisation period Year Production (tonnes) Year Production (tonnes) Moving average Year Produc- 'On (tonnes) Moving average Year Production (tonnes) average L Mean output Rate of growth of mean output compared to mean production in the immediate past period

14 Table 4.5: Trends of inland fish production ( to ) - sub period-wise pre-mechamsation period Mechanisation period Motorisation period Year Production (tonnes) Mov'ng average Year Production jtonnes) Moving average Year Production jtonnes) Moving average Year Liberalisation period Production (tomes) Moving average Mean output Rate of growth of mean output compared to mean production in the immediate past period From Table-4.5, it is observed that the inland fish production in the Union Territory in the mechanisation period grew by 275 per cent compared to the the pre-mechanisation period. The growth during the period of motorisation in relation to the period of mechanisation works out to 192 per cent. The growth during the period of economic liberalisation in relation to the period of motorisation comes to 142 per cent. In these three cases, the growth per

15 annurn works out to 34.38, 21.33, 14.5 per cent respectively. As a result of this analysis, it is seen that the highest growth per annum has been registered during the period of mechanisation compared to the period of pre- mechanisation. Table-4.6 : Trends of total fish production ( to ) - sub period-wise Pre-Mechanisation period Mechanisation period Motorisation period Liberalisation period Year Production (tonnes) average Year Production (tonnes) Moving average Year Production (tonnes) Moving average Year Produclion (tonnes) Moving average Mean output 9860 Rate of growth of mean output compared to mean production in the immediate past period From Table-4.6, it is observed that the total fish production in the Union Territory in the mechanisation period grew by 59 per cent compared to the the

16 *re-mechanisation period. The growth during the period of motorisation in relation to the period of rnechanisation works out to 39 per cent. The growth during the period of economic liberalisation in relation to the period of rnotorisation comes to 92 per cent. In these three cases, the growth per annum works out to 7.38, 4.33, 9.2 per cent respectively. As a result of this analysis, it is seen that the highest growth per annum has been registered during the period economic liberalisation compared to the period of motorisation Trend Analysis Trend analysis has been attempted by using regression equation of the form y = a + b t, where the dependent variable 'y' stands for fish production and It' for time. The trend analysis has been carried out for the four sub periods in respect of (i) marine fish production, (ii) inland fish production, and (iii) total fish production and the results are presented in the following table. Table-4.7: Linear regression equations for four sub periods (calculated with moving average) Sub period Pre-Mechanisation (I Sub Period) Marine Fish Production Inland Fish Production Total Fish Production Linear regression equation y = t y = t y = t Mechanisation (I1 Sub Period) Marine Fish Production Inland Fish Production Total Fish Production Motorisation (I11 Sub Period) Marine Fish Production y = t Inland Fish Production y = t - Total Fish Production y = t

17 Liberalisation (IV Sub Period) Marine Fish Production Inland Fish Production Total Fish Production From the regression equations, the annual linear growth rate of fish production for different categories are calculated and the results obtained are presented in the following table. Table-4.8: Comparison of sub period-wise growth rate of fish production in the Union Territory (calculated with moving average) Sub period Annual linear growth rate Marine Inland Total Pre-Mechanisation Mechanisation Motorisation Liberalisation From Table-4.4, one can found that after steady increasing trend during the early 70s marine fish production has been almost steady declining from the mid 70s and this decline has resulted in obtaining a negative growth rate during mechanisation period. Ths decline in fish output was caused by over exploitation of species resulting resource depletion and ecological problems. And it was such problem engendered in the wake of mechanisation of fishing crafts that paved the way for the introduction of motorisation. It is found that fish output was growing at an annual rate of roughly 9 per cent during the first phase of motorisation and though the growth rate declined subsequently during the liberalisation phase of motorisation still it was growing at a positive rate of 1.20 per cent.

18 Thus it could be inferred that the motorisation technology had quite positively affected fish output, while mechanisation though it initially contributed to growth of fish output, ultimately began to affect fish production negatively Comparison of fish production during four sub periods Next, a comparative analysis of the situation in four sub periods is taken UP. (A) Comparison of annual mean values The annual mean values of fish production in the four sub periods are considered. The ratio of the mean value in a sub period is compared with that in the previous sub period. The results obtained for marine fish production, inland fish production and total fish production are furnished in Table-4.9. Table-4.9 : Comparison of annual mean values during four sub periods Item of production. I Annual mean value in sub period (in tons) I1 I11 IV I1 to I Sub periods Ratio I11 to I1 Sub periods IV to 111 Sub periods Marine fish production Inland fish production Total fish production

19 Comparing the figures for the sub period-wise coefficient of variation presented in previous table, it is seen that the inland fish production showed appreciable fluctuation in the first sub period, increased further in fluctuation during the second sub period, marginally decreased in fluctuation during the third sub period and reached a stage of somewhat stability in production during the fourth sub period. The annual mean value of inland fish production during the second sub period is appreciably high; it works out to 4.1 times that during the I sub period. On the other hand, the inland fish production during the I11 sub period is 3.0 times that during the I1 sub period: The figure during the fourth sub period is 2.3 times that during the I11 sub period. This indicates a state of somewhat stability in inland fish production in the period of economic liberalisation. In the case of marine fish production and total fish production, the values of the ratios obtained in above Table show only marginal changes. Consequently, these ratios indicate that the situation has not changed drastically from one sub period to another sub period for marine fish production as well as total fish production in the Union Territory. (B) Comparison of percentage share during four sub periods In Table-4.10, the annual values of percentage share of marine fish production to total fish production and inland production to total fish production have been provided. Now, the figures pertaining to the percentage share of these two sectors to the total fish production in the Union Territory during the four sub periods are considered. The average percentage share in each sub period is worked out for each sector. The results are presented in the following table.

20 Table-4.10: Mean values of percentage share during four sub periods Sub period Mean value of percentage share Marine Inland I Sub Period I1 Sub Period I11 Sub Period IV Sub Period By referring to Table-4.10, it is observed that the percentage share of inland fish production to the total fish production has registered an increase in each sub period compared to the previous sub period and the reverse is the case with marine fish production. However, marine fish production continues to contribute a major portion of the total fish production in the Union Territory. This analysis shows that the inland fish production has grown considerably as a result of various policy initiatives and financial incentives formulated and implemented by the Government, From a meagre share of 1.45 per cent in the first sub period, it has risen to 9.70 per cent during the period of economic liberalisation. This indicates a marginal diversification of the consumers' preference for inland fish varieties in relation to the marine fish varieties, taking place gradually over a period of time Comparison with all India performance In order to evaluate the effectiveness of various Five Year Plans implemented in the country, it becomes necessary to identi& whether there are any serious regional imbalances. In this context, it becomes necessary to compare the fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry with the situation all over India, Consequently, one may think of annual growth rate as a possible measure of evaluation.

21 Comparison of Annual Growth Rates The corresponding percentage annual growth rates of fish production in both marine and inland are considered for Union Territory of Pondicherry (UTP) and All India during the periods of motorisation and economic liberalisation. The relevant data are presented in the following table. Table-4.11: Comparison of Percentage Annual Growth Rates Year Percentage annual growth rate Marine Inland All All UTP UTP UTP India India Total All India

22 r e u n i o n Territory of Pondicherw All India I Fig.4.2: Comparison of Percentage of Annual Growth Rates Union Territory of Pondicherry with All India ( to ) Out of the 23 years of the study period given in the above table, the situation in Pondicherry is better than that at all India level during 13 years in the case of annual growth rate of marine fish production, 10 years in respect of inland fish production and 12 years in the matter of total fish production. At the same time, one observes that during the annual growth rate for all India was more than that for the Union Territory in respect of both marine and inland fish production Comparison of the annual mean values in sub periods As a result of the discussion in the above sub sections, it becomes imperative to compare the situation of fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry with all India production on the basis of some other parameter. Against this background, one has to consider the annual mean values of fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry and that in all India by splitting the period of analysis into the following two sub periods: Sub period 1: Period of motorisation (from 1980 onwards) Sub period 2: Period of economic liberalisation (since 1991)

23 The annual mean values of fish production In the second sub period are compared with those in the first sub period. The results for the sub periods are provided in Table Table-4.12: Comparison of quantity of fish production in all India and Union Territory of Pondicherry (in tonnes) Item Annual Mean Value of Production All India Union Territory Sub period Ratio Sub period Ratio I I1 I1 to I I / I1 I1 to I Marine fish production Inland fish production Total fish production From the above table, one observes the existence of some clear pattern. The ratios of the corresponding figures for the second sub periods are considered. The rate of growth of the quantity of fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry is more than the all India figure in respect of both marine and inland fish production. This indicates that Union Territory of Pondicherry performed better than the rest of India in fish production Quantum and value of fish production during to In the previous discussion, the emphasis was on the quantum of fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry. Next, the quantity of fish production is taken up for consideration along with the value of fish production and for this purpose, the period of study is chosen as to The relevant data are presented in Table-4,13. The value of marine fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry increased from Rs lakhs in to Rs.8021 lakhs in Thus, the value of marine fish production in is tirnes

24 that during In the case of inland fish production, the value rose from Rs lakhs in to Rs lakhs in indicating an appreciable increase by 17.5 times. Table-4.13: Quantum and value of fish production in Union Territory of Pondicherry from to Year Marine Production (in tonnes) (Rs. in lakhs) Inland Production (in tonnes) (Rs.in lakhs) Total value (Rs.in lakhs) Source: Administrative reports of various issues, Department of Fishermen Welfare, Government of Pondicherry Fisheries and

25 As regards the total fish production in the same period, the value increased from Rs lakhs to Rs lakhs, showing an increase by times, which is almost equal with the figure arrived at for marine fish poduction. It follows from this analysis that the value of fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry is predominantly determined by that of marine fish production rather than inland fish production. From the Table, it is seen that the values of both categories of fish production as well as the total production declined continuously during the years to However, from the subsequent year onwards, these values picked up considerably, contributing to the economy of the Union Territory of Pondicherry Sub period analysis of quantity and value of fish production For the purpose of examination of the performance of fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry in quantity as well as value, the period of analysis is divided into two sub periods as detailed below, since data relating to value of fish production are available only from Sub period 1: Period of motorisation (from onwards) Sub period 2:Period of economic liberalisation (since ) In order to compare the performance in the two sub periods as well as the whole period in the Union Territory of Pondicherry, the data provided in Table-4.13 are taken up for analysis. The statistical parameters for fish production are presented in the following Table.

26 Table-4.14: Statistical parameters for fish production Period and item Marine production Mean S.D. C.V. Inland production Mean S.D. C.V. Total production Mean S.D. C.V. Sub Period I ( ) Quantity (tonnes) Value (Rs.lakhs) Sub Period I1 ( ) Quantity (tonnes) Value (Rs.lakhs) Whole Period ( ) Quantity (tonnes) Value (Rs.lakhs) From Table-4.14, it is noticed that the mean values of fish production in quantity as well as value have increased from the first sub period to the second sub period in respect of each of the marine varieties, inland varieties and total fish production. By referring to the values of the coefficient of variation, one observes that the coefficient of variation for the value of fish production during the first sub period far exceeded that for quantity of fish production for marine, inland and total fish production. This illustrates the fact that the quantity of fish production showed signs of somewhat stability while the value of the fish landings was more unstable and this phenomenon was so categorical in the case of inland fish production during the first sub period in comparison with marine fish production. In the second sub period, even though the coefficient of

27 variation was more in the case of value of fish production in relation to the quantity, the value of fish production is somewhat stable in respect of inland fish production in the second sub period. The analysis indicates that the period of economic liberalisation has brought out somewhat stability in the value of fish production in the case of marine as well as inland fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry Analysis by correlation coefficient In order to find out whether any relationship exists between two variables and to measure the degree of relationship when it exists, one may employ the coefficient of correlation. To analyse the situation of fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry during the sub periods I and 11 as well as the whole period, the coefficient of correlation is considered for different pairs of factors. The results obtained are presented in the following table. Table-4.15: Correlation coefficient for quantity and value of fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry Category Coefficient of Correlation Pair of Factors Sub Sub Whole Period-I Period-I1 Period Quantity MP - IP Value MV - IV Quantity and value MP - MV MP - Marine Production IP - Inland Production MV - Value of Marine Production IV - Value of Inland Production TP - Total Production TV - Value of Total Production IP - IV TP - TV

28 During the first sub period, it is observed that all the pairs of factors are highly correlated. During the second sub period, two pairs of factors are highly correlated namely, Quantity of marine fish production - Quantity of inland fish production Quantity of inland fish production - Value of inland fish production In the case of the whole period, all the five pairs of factors are highly correlated. Thus, it is seen that during the period of economic liberalisation, (i) the production of fish in marine and inland sectors appreciably matched with each other and (ii) there was appreciable match between the quantity and value of inland fish production. During the sub period 11, inland fish production in quantity and value registered a correlation coefficient of 0.87 while it works out to 0.78 only in the case of marine fish production. Thus, the quantity and value highly match with each other for inland fish varieties whereas it is relatively somewhat less matched for marine fish varieties. 'This shows that inland fish varieties got remunerative price. A marginal decline in the supply of marine fish varieties was made good by inland fish production which explains the above phenomenon indicated by the correlation coefficient. Previously, it was observed that the percentage share of inland fish production to the total fish production registered an increase in each sub period compared to the previous sub period, indicating a marginal diversification of the consumers' preference for inland fish varieties in relation to the marine fish varieties, taking place gradually over a period of time. Thus, it is seen that the conclusion drawn from the correlation coefficient confirms the earlier finding arrived at with the percentage share of inland fish production to the total fish production.

29 Trend analysis Trend equations are fitted for (i) quantity of marine fish production and (ii) value of marine fish production. The equations are determined for the two sub periods as well as the whole period in respect of marine fish production, inland fish production and total fish production. The results are presented in the following table. Table-4.16 : Trend equations for quantity and value ( ) Period Equations Mole Period Marine Fish Production: Inland Fish Production: Total Fish Production: I Sub Period Marine Fish Production: Inland Fish Production: Total Fish Production: Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value I1 Sub Period Marine Fish Production: Quantity Value Inland ~ ish Production: Quantity y = t Value y = t Total Fish Production: Quantity y = t Value y = t

30 From the trend equations, the annual linear growth rates of fish ~roduction (both quantity and value) for different categories are calculated and the results are presented in the following table for the purpose of comparison. Table-4.17 : Comparison of growth rates of fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry Period Annual Linear Growth Rate Marine Inland Total Whole Period: Quantity Value Sub Period I: Quantity Value Sub Period 11: Quantity Value By comparing the annual growth rates for the quantity of fish production as well as the value of fish production during the whole period of 1980 to 2002, one observes that the value of fish production has registered more growth than the quantity of fish production in the matter of both marine and inland sectors. This indicates the impact of the price level in the international and domestic markets on the fish varieties during the whole period. The results pertaining to the annual growth rate during the first sub period indicate more growth of value in relation to quantity in marine and inland sectors. It is further observed that inland fish production registered more growth rate than marine fish production in respect of quantity as well as value. This points to the more favourable conditions for inland fish production than marine fish production during the first sub period.

31 A comparison of the annual growth rates of the quantity of production during the second sub period indicates that the growth rate for inland fish production was almost three times that of marine. However, in the case of the annual growth rates of the value of production, inland and marine fish production have almost equal values. From the above annual growth rates, it is inferred that the growth in the price of inland fish varieties was not adequate to match that of the quantum of inland fish varieties and that marine fish varieties commanded comparatively more price than the inland fish varieties. From the values of the annual growth rate furnished above, one observes more growth of value in relation to quantity in marine sector whereas a reverse phenomenon is noticed in the case of inland sector. However, it is further seen that inland fish production registered more growth rate than marine fish production in respect of quantity as well as value, which is more pronounced for quantity rather than the value, This indiates the presence of more congenial conditions for the quantity of inland fish production than marine fish production during the second sub period. At the same time, the level of change is not so much in the case of value of fish production in both sectors. This indicates that the price level has been maintained at some level of stability during the second sub period of Comparison of the two sub periods Next, the situations in the respective sub periods are compared. The annual mean values of the quantity of fish production and the values of fish production in the two sub periods are taken into account. The ratio of the mean value in the second sub period is compared with that in the first sub period. The results got for marine fish production, inland fish production and total fish production are summarised in Table-4.18.

32 Table-4.18: Comparison of two sub periods -- Annual mean value Quantity of fish in Value of fish in sub period Item sub period (in tonnes) (Rs. in lakhs) II I Ratio Ratio I1 to I I I1 I1 to I Marine fish production Inland fish production Total fish production By comparing the corresponding figures for the quantity and value of fish production in Table-4.18, it is seen that the quantity of marine fish production in the second sub period increased by 1.8 times that in the first sub period while the value of the same increased by 2.4 times. Thus, the value of marine fish production increased more than that of the quantity. The same phenomenon is observed for inland fish production as well as total fish production. In view of this analysis, the following points emerge in respect of fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry: (1) Technological advancement has had its positive impact on fish production (2) Some sort of stability arose between demand and supply of fish in the period of economic liberalisation (3) Fishermen could get comparatively better prices for their catches in the period of economic liberalisation than in the earlier period. A glance at the corresponding figures for the marine and inland sectors of fish production in Table-4.18, it is observed that the inland sector grew enormously in both sub periods in comparison with the marine sector in terms of quantity and value. This indicates certain serious limitations in the growth of marine sector, which may be attributed to the following reasons:l

33 (1) Over exploitation of marine resources (2) Consequential depletion of marine resources (3) Environmental degradation (4) Non observance of any fishing regulations during the study period In comparison with marine sector, one observes spectacular growth In the case of inland fish production for which the following supportive measures of the Government of India and the Government of the Union Territory are accountable: (1) Liberal policy of import of machinery and implements necessary for fish farming, (2) Financial incentives for fish farming activities through subsidy, soft loans, etc. (3) Technological assistance of know-how for fish farming. (4) Supply of fish seed. (5) Provision of fish feed. (6) Marketing activities for export of fish cultured. (7) Incentives for promotion of export of fish Analysis on the basis of proportions Now attention is focused on (i) the proportion of the quantity of fish production in the marine and inland sectors to the total quantity of fish production and (ii) the proportion of the value of the fish production in the marine and inland sectors to the total value of fish production during the period to The proportionate values for each year during the period to are calculated and provided in Table-4.19.

34 Table-4.19 : Proportion of the sector to the total Year Marine production Proportion of Inland production Proportion of Marine value Inland value Situation during the whole period A reference to Table-4.19 indicates that the mean value of the proportion of quantity of marine fish production to the total quantity of fish production works out to during the whole period and the proportion in respect of

35 inland fish production is This illustrates that, on an average 91 per cent of the quantity of fish production in the Union Territory comes from marine sector and there is nine per cent contribution from inland sector. Thus, marine sector has a significant role in the fish production of Pondicherry Union Territory. While one considers the proportion of values of fish production in the Union Territory, the marine sector accounts for 93 per cent whereas the share of inland sector works out to seven per cent. Thus, it is observed that the proportion of value of marine fish production is more than that of the quantity of marine fish production; also, the proportion of value of inland fish production is less than that of the quantity of inland fish production. This indicates that marine fish varieties have more market value than the inland fish varieties Situation during the first sub period Now, the situation of proportionate values during the period to is taken up for consideration. In this period, the proportion of the quantity of marine fish production to the total quantity of fish production works out to 92 per cent while the proportion of the value of marine fish production to the total value of fish production is observed to be 95 per cent. Thus, the marine fish varieties had more market value during first sub period compared to the inland fish varieties Situation during the second sub period Now, the proportionate values are considered during the second sub period, namely to During this period, it is seen that the proportion of the quantity of marine fish production to the total quantity of fish production is 90 per cent whereas the proportion of the value of marine fish production to the total value of fish production is calculated as 92 per cent. Thus, during the the second sub period also, the marine fish varieties had more market value in relation to the inland fish varieties,

36 Comparison of the first and second sub periods The analysis of proportions brings out the dominant role of the marine fishery sector in the Union Territory of Pondicherry. However, the proportion of the quantity of the lnland fish production to the quantity of total fish production increased from eight per cent during the first sub period to 10 per cent during the second sub period and the proportion of the value of inland fish production to the value of the total fish production increased from five per cent during the first sub period to eight per cent during the second sub period. Thus, it is observed that the proportion of inland fish varieties registered an increase during the period of economic liberalisation in quantity as well as value. However, the inland fish varieties have less market value compared to the marine fish varieties. This may be attributed to the preference accorded by the domestic and global consumers to the marine fish varieties rather than the inland fish varieties Chow test In order to find out whether there is any structural change in the phenomenon of production of fish in the Union Territory of Pondicherry, Chow Test is found quite useful. This test can be applied in a given time series data if it is divided into two or several sub parts. The decision making process in Chow Test is based on F-test. The method of carrying out Chow Test is as follows: For a given time series data under consideration, one has to fit a regression line in the form where t represents time When the given time integral is divided into two sub intervals, one obtains two times series data pertaining to the respective sub period. It is

37 assumed that there are nl, nn observations in the first and second sub periods respectively. For each sub period, regression equations are fitted. Thus, one has the two equations and For the regression equations of the two sub periods as well as the whole period, one has to find out the sum of squares of errors, occurring due to the projection of values. The following notations are employed: RSSl= sum of squares of errors due to projections in sub period-1 RSSz = sum of squares of errors due to projections in sub period-:! RSSw = sum of squares of errors due to projections in the whole period. k = the number of sub periods considered. With the notations as above, one defines the statistic under Chow test as follows: Chow statistic = (RSSw - RSSi - RSS2) I 2 (RSSl+ RSSa) I(nl+ n2-2k) 4.8. Testing of hypothesis by Chow test In the sequel, Chow test is used to test the following hypotheses: Null Hypothesis H, : There is not much significant structural change in the time series data corresponding to the sub periods 1 and 2. Alternate Hypothesis H1 : There is significant structural change in the time series data of the sub periods 1 and 2.

38 Level of significance When the real situation is that the Null hypothesis is true, the *robability of rejecting it on the basis of the data collected is called the level of significance and it is denoted by a. One has to select a value for the level of significance. Test criterion The value of F is found out from the statistical tables corresponding to (k, n-2k) degrees of freedom for the selected level of significance a. If the calculated value of Chow statistic is less than in the table value of F, then one has to accept the null hypothesis. Otherwise, the null hypothesis has to be rejected Determination of structural change in the value of marine fish production The data pertaining to the value of marine fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry during the period of 23 years from to are taken up for consideration. The period of analysis is split into two sub periods as follows: First Sub Period: The period of 11 years of motorisation from to Second Sub Period: The period of 12 years of economic liberalisation from to For the above data, the Chow statistic is obtained as The level of significance a is chosen as 5 per cent. The table value of F for (2,19) degrees of fieedom at 5 per cent level is

39 It is observed that the calculated value of Chow statistic is greater than the table value at 5 per cent level of significance. Consequently, the null hypothesis is rejected. As a result, it is concluded that there is a significant structural change in the value of marine fish production between the two sub periods Determination of structural change in the value of inland fish production The data related to the value of inland fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry during the period of 23 years from to are now considered. The period of analysis is divided into the following two sub periods: First Sub Period: Second Sub Period: to (11 years) to (12 years) In this case, the Chow statistic is The table value is Comparing the calculated and table values, the null hypothesis is rejected at 5 per cent level of significance. Conclusion: On the basis of Chow test, it is concluded that there is a significant structural change in the value of inland fish production between the two sub periods. The following reasons may be attributed to the structural change: (1) intensive farming activities in the recent past (2) gradual increase of hatcheries Determination of change in the value of total fish production Attention is now focused upon the data concerning the value of total fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry during the period of 23 years

40 from to For the purpose of application of Chow test, the period of analysis is broken into the following two sub periods: First Sub Period: to (11 years) Second Sub Period: to (12 years) For these data, the Chow statistic is calculated as Referring to the calculated and table values, one has to reject the null hypothesis at 5 per cent level of significance. On the basis of Chow test, it is inferred that there is a significant change in the total value of fish production between the two sub periods. Conclusion: As a result of Chow test, it is concluded that there is a significant change in the case of each-of (i) value of marine fish production, (ii) value of inland fish production and (iii) value of total fish production between the period of motorisation and the period of economic liberalisation.

41 Part - 11 Region-wise Comparison of Marine and Inland Fish Production 4.9. Marine fish production in Pondicherry region First, the Pondicherry region is considered. The data pertaining to the quantity of marine fish production in Pondicherry region and Pondicherry Union Territory during the period to are taken up for analysis. The relevant data are presented in Table The share of Pondicherry region in the quantity of total marine fish production of the Union Territory is calculated for each year in terms of percentage. The results obtained are presented in the same table. Table-4.20: Quantity of marine fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry and Pondicherry region Marine fish Marine fish Share of Pondicherry production in production in region in the total marine Year U.T. of Pondicherry fish production of Union Pondicherry* region* Territory ** (in Tonnes) (in Tonnes) (Percentage) *Source: Administrative Reports of various issues, Department of Fisheries and Fishermen Welfare, Government of Pondicherry "* Computed

42 El Other Regions Pondicherry Region Fig.4.3: Quantity of marine fish production in Pondicherry Region and Other Regions in I3 Other Regions H Pondicherry Region Fig.4.4: Quantity of marine fish production in Pondicherry Region and Other Regions in The quantity of marine fish production in Pondicherry region is compared with that in the Pondicherry Union Territory. By a glance at the results provided by Table-4.20, it is gathered that during the period of economic liberalisation i.e. from to , the annual mean value of the percentage share of marine fish production for Pondicherry region in the

43 Union Territory works out to per cent with a standard deviation As a result, it is seen that Pondicherry region has a significant share in the quantity of marine fish production in the Union Territory. This result has vital implications for the policy makers of the Government and all persons linked with the fisheries sector. Now attention is focussed upon the statistical parameters for the quantity of marine fish production in Pondicherry region and the values of these parameters are calculated and compared with those for the Union Territory during the study period of to The results are furnished in Table Table-4.21: Statistical parameters for quantum of marine fish production during the period of liberalisation Geographical Mean Standard Co-efficient of area (tonnes) deviation variation Pondicherry Region Pondicherry Union Territory From Table-4.21, it is seen that the co-efficient of variation is less in Pondicherry region than that in the whole of the Union Territory. This indicates that the share of Pondicherry region in the quantity of marine fish production has been more consistent in relation to the other three regions of Karaikal, Mahe and Yanam. On the basis of the mean values, it is seen that the ratio of Pondicherry region to the Union Territory works out to per cent which closely tallies with the annual mean value of the percentage share obtained in Table This again shows that the share of Pondicherry region in marine fish

44 ~roduction in the Union Territory of Pondicherry has been consistent during the period of economic liberalisation Trend analysis for Pondicherry region Trend analysis is carried out for the time series data and the trend equation for Pondicherry region is obtained as The corresponding equation for Pondicherry Union Territory is y = t Growth Rate With the help of the trend equations fitted above, the annual growth rates during the period of study are calculated for Pondicherry region as well as the Union Territory in terms of percentage. One arrives at the following results: Geographical Area Pondicherry Region Pondicherry Union Territory Annual Growth Rate (%) Comparing the annual growth rates provided above, it is seen that the values of annual growth rates are almost the same, but slightly more in the Union Territory compared to the Pondicherry region. In other words, the remaining three regions of Karaikal, Mahe and Yanam put together registered a slightly higher annual growth in the marine fish production compared to Pondicherry region during the period of economic liberalisation ( to ).

45 4.10. Region-wise quantity of fish production Next, the region-wise situation of the quantity of marine and inland fish production is taken up for analysis during the period to The relevant data are furnished in Table Table-4.22: Region-wise quantity of fish production (in tonnes) Year Pondicherry Karaikal Mahe Yanam Marine Inland Marine Inland Marine Inland Marine Inland Source: Administrative Reports of various issues, Department of Fisheries and Fishermen Welfare, Government of Pondicherry It is to be remarked that there is no inland fish production in the Mahe region. However, this region contributes significantly to marine fish production. In all the four regions, one observes gradual increase in the respective category of fish production from the year to , even though there are certain fluctuations during some years. In this context, one

46 has to consider the statistical parameters for the above data. The results are furnished in the following table. Table-4.23: Statistical parameters for region-wise quantity of fish production Region Category Mean Standard Co-efficient of fish production (tonnes) deviation of variation Pondlcherry Marine Inland Karaikal Marine Inland Mahe Marine Yanam Marine Inland By referring to Table-4.23, it is gathered that the predominant position in marine production is occupied by the Pondicherry region and second position goes to Karaikal region. However, a different phenomenon is observed in the case of inland fish production in the Union Territory. The first place in inland fish production goes to Karaikal region, whereas Pondicherry region comes only in the last place in inland fish production, While one considers the statistical parameters of standard deviation, the highest standard deviation is observed in the case of marine fish production in Karaikal and least standard deviation is noticed in respect of inland fish production in Yanam region. From the results, it is seen that Pondicherry and Karaikal regions are affected more by large amounts of fluctuations in marine fish production. Taking into account the values of the coefficient of variation, one notices maximum amount of this statistical parameter in the case of inland fish production in the Pondicherry region while the least value is observed for marine fish production in

47 Pondicherry region. It is inferred that Pondicherry region could have some stability in marine fish production in spite of some occasional fluctuations while the inland fish production in the same region was most unstable. In the case of Pondicherry and Karaikal regions, the values of the coefficient of variation reveal that marine fish production had more stability than the inland fish production whereas the Yanam region had more stability in inland fish production compared to marine fish production Chi square test Now, Chi square test is applied to determine the significance of the difference in the quantities of region-wise fish production during the 12 years from to The following hypotheses are formed. Null Hypothesis Ho: There is no significant difference in the quantity of fish production among the four regions during the period of study. Alternate Hypothesis HI: There is significant difference in the quantity of fish production among the four regions. Test statistic: The following formula gives the test statistic of Chi square x2= C (0-E)2/ E where, 0 is the observed value and E is the expected value The value of' Chi square is calculated using the above formula. The corresponding value is taken fiom the statistical table for a desired level of significance a,

48 Test Criterion If the calculated value of Chi square is less than the table value, then the null hypothesis is accepted at the particular level of significance. If it is otherwise, then the null hypothesis is rejected and the alternate hypothesis is accepted. The quantities of fish production in marine and inland sectors in the four regions of the Union Territory of Pondicherry (UTP) during the 12 years from to are considered from Table Region-wise data relating to value of fish production are not available. It is therefore attempted to estimate production value for the four regions employing the following method. Expected value for a region = Actual value for UTP x Probability for the concerned region The results obtained are furnished in the following table. Table-4.24: Region-wise statistically expected quantity of marine and inland fish production (in tonnes) Marine Fish Production Inland Fish Production -- Year Pondi - Karaikal Mahe Yanam Karaikal Yanarn cherry cherry

49 Marine Fish Production By referring to the observed and expected values, the Chi square values were worked out which comes to The level of significance a is taken as 5 per cent. The degrees of keedom = 33. When the table values are considered, one obtains a value of for degrees of freedom = 30 and a value of against degrees of freedom = 40. For degrees of freedom in between 30 and 40, there is no table value. To handle this situation, one has to adopt a method of interpolation. In this way, the table value is obtained as for degrees of freedom = 33 at 5 per cent level of significance. Since the calculated value exceeds the table value, one has to reject the null hypothesis at 5 per cent level of significance. Conclusion: On the basis of Chi square test carried out above, it is inferred that there is a significant variation in the quantity of marine fish production in the four regions namely, Pondicherry, Karaikal, Mahe and Yanam during the period of economic liberalisation Inland fish production From the observed and the expected values, the calculated value of Chi square is The level of significance a is taken as 5 per cent. For degrees of freedom = 22, it is seen that the table value is Since the calculated value is more than the table value, the null hypothesis is rejected at 5 per cent level of significance and as a consequence, the alternate hypothesis is accepted. Conclusion: With the help of Chi square test, it is found out that there is a significant variation in the quantity of inland fish production in the four regions namely, Pondicherry, Karaikal, Mahe and Yanam during the period of economic liberalisation.

50 4.12. Analysis by percentage share Even though the data on the quantities of fish production provide a clear idea, one requires the percentage share of each region towards the respective category of fish production for the purpose of comparison of the situation in different regions. To achieve this purpose, the percentage shares of different regions are now taken up for analysis. The share of each region in fish production is worked out in terms of percentage by considering the ratio of the quantity of production in the concerned region to the total production of the same category in the whole of the Union Territory. The results obtained are presented in the following table. Table-4.25: Percentage share of the regions in quantity of marine and inland fish production Percentage share of the region In marine fish production Year - Pondi Karaikal Yanarn cherry In inland fish production Pondi cherry Karaikal Yanam

51 Discussion on percentage share in marine fish production By referring to Table-4.25, it is observed that the highest percentage share in marine fish production in the Union Territory is for Pondicherry region and the second place is taken by Karaikal region. In between the two regions of Mahe and Yanam, the highest share fluctuates during several years. One observes a decreasing trend in the case of Pondicherry and Yanam regions, whereas an increasing trend is witnessed in the case of Karaikal and Mahe regions. To analyse the situation further, it becomes imperative to consider the statistical parameters for the above data. The relevant results are provided in the following table. Table-4.26: Statistical parameters - percentage share in quantity of marine fish production Region Mean Value of Standard Co-efficient of Percentage Share Deviation Variation Pondicherry Karaikal Mahe Yanam From the above table, one gets the following ranking of geographical regions in the quantity of marine fish production: (1) Pondicherry, (2) Karaikal, (3) Mahe, (4) Yanam. However, there is some exception also in the percentage share during the three years , and during which time the share of Yanam exceeded that of Mahe. By considering the statistical parameter of standard deviation, it is seen that it is more in the case of Karaikal region while the other three regions have less values. However, the latter regions have somewhat equal values of the standard deviation. From this, it is inferred that marine fish production in Karaikal region is affected more by fluctuations than the other three regions.

52 Next, taking into account the coefficient of variation, it is seen that it is the highest for the Yanam region while the least value goes to Pondicherry region. This indicates that Pondicherry region has had more consistent percentage share in marine fish production in the Union Territory. The next region to have consistency in marine fish production is Karaikal. The sequence in this order continues with Mahe and Yanam. The analysis show that Yanam region is the least consistent in the percentage share of marine fish production Discussion of percentage share in inland fish production The statistical parameters for the above data are calculated and the results are provided in the following table. Table-4.27: Statistical parameters - percentage share in quantity of inland fish production Region Mean Value of Percentage Share Standard Deviation Co-efficient of Variation Pondicherry Kar aikal Yanam From the above table, one gets the following ranking of geographical regions in quantity of inland fish production: (1) Karaikal, (2) Yanam, (3) Pondicherry. However, there is some exception also in the percentage share during the three years , and during which time the share of Pondicherry region exceeded that of Yanam. By considering the statistical parameter of standard deviation, it is seen that it is the highest in the case of Yanam region while the other two regions have less values. This indicates the impact of fluctuations on inland fish production in Yanam region, while Pondicherry and Karaikal regions have less fluctuations.

53 Next, going through the coefficient of variation, it is seen that it is the highest for the Yanam region while the least value goes to Karaikal region. From this, it is inferred that Karaikal region registered more consistent percentage share in inland fish production in the Union Territory than the other two regions. The next region to have consistency in inland fish production is Pondicherry. The analysis show that Yanam region is the least consistent in the percentage share of inland fish production. Combining with the previous result, it is observed that Yanam region is the least consistent in the percentage share in the matter of marine as well as inland fish production Contribution of different regions in total fish production Next, the total fish production in the four geographical regions of Pondicherry, Karaikal, Mahe and Yanam is taken up for discussion. The relevant data are provided in the following table. Table-4.28: Contribution of the regions in quantity of total fish production (in tonne s) Year Contribution of the region Pondicherry Karaikal Mahe Yanarn Total

54 (Figures within the parentheses refer to the percentage share of the concerned region in the total fish production in the Union Territory) The total fish production in each one of the four regions has an increasing trend during the period of economic liberalisation, though with occasional fluctuations. In order to analysis the situation of fluctuations, it is worthwhile to consider the statistical parameters for the above data. The results obtained. are provided in the following table. Table-4.29: Statistical parameters - contribution of the regions in quantity of total fish production Geographical Mean Value Standard Co-efficient of area (in tonnes) deviation variation Pondicherry Karalkal Mahe Yanam Union Territory From the above table, it is observed that the Mahe region recorded the highest coefficient of variation while the least value occured in the case of Pondicherry region. Consequently, it is inferred that the quantity of total fish

55 *reduction in the Pondicherry region is more consistent than the other three regions while the Mahe region is the least consistent in this aspect. The statistical parameters for the percentage shares of the four regions are calculated and the results are provided in the following table. Table-4.30: Region Statistical parameters - percentage share in total fish production Mean Value of Standard Co-efficient of Percentage Share Deviation Variation Pondicherry Kar aikal Mahe Yanam From the above table, one gets the following ranking of geographical regions in quantity of total fish production: (1) Pondicherry, (2) Karaikal, (3) Yanam, (4) Mahe. However, there is some exception also in the percentage share during the two years and during which time the share of Mahe exceeded that of Yanam. By considering the statistical parameter of standard deviation, it is seen that it is the highest in the case of Karaikal region while the other three regions have less values. This indicates the impact of fluctuations on the quantity of total fish production in Karaikal region, whereas the other three geographical areas have less fluctuations. Next, going through the coefficient of variation, it is seen that it is the highest for the Yanam region while the least value occurs in the case of Pondicherry region. From this, it is inferred that Pondicherry region registered more consistent percentage share in total fish production in the Union Territory than the other three regions. It is further seen that Yanam region is the least consistent in the percentage share of total fish production.

56 Comparison of percentage share of different regions Now, a comparison is made of the percentage share of different regions in the quantity of fish production. The relevant data are furnished in the following table. Table-4.31:Comparison of region-wise percentage share of quantity of fish production Mean Value of Percentage Share Region Marine Inland Total Production Production Production Pondicherry Karaikal Mahe 8.57 Yanam 7.70 From the above table, it follows that Pondicherry Region occupied a predominant position in marine fish production in the Union Territory during the period of economic liberalisation, i.e to However, in the case of inland production, the predominant position went to Karaikal. As regards the inland fish production, the share of Yanam was more than that of Pondicherry region Examination of trends in change of percentage share during post liberalisation period The previous discussions provide an idea of the contribution of different regions in fish production in terms of quantity as well as percentage. The previous results indicated the fluctuations in the quantity of fish production in the different regions during the period of study. This makes it imperative to analyse the trends in change of percentage share of different regions. Consequently, one of the objectives of the study has been identified as examination of trends in fish production during the post liberalisation period. Attention is focused on this aspect in the sequel.

57 Trends in change of percentage share in marine and inland fish production The data on marine and inland fish production in the four reaons of Pondicherry Union Territory are considered during the period to There are two types of trends in a time series: (i) positive trend and (ii) negative trend Positive trend means that the time series is increasing whereas negative trend implies that the time series is decreasing. The value during a year is compared with that in the previous year and on that basis it is decided whether there is positive or negative trend in a particular year. furnished in the following table, The results are Table-4.32: Trends in change of percentage share of regions in quantity of marine and inland fish production Year. Change in percentage share compared to previous year Marine fish production Pondi- Karaikal Mahe Yanam cherry Inland fish production POndicherry Karaikal Yanam

58 By referring to the nature of trends in different years, the probability values may be identified. In a time series, the number of periods in which it is increasing or decreasing compared to the previous period is taken into account. On the basis of this number, it is determined how much probability a region has to increase or decrease its percentage share. The value of probability enable a planner to prepare an efficient perspective planning for the future Marine Fish Production In the case of Pondicherry region, one observes six positive changes and five negative changes. Karaikal region has five positive changes and six negative changes. In the case of Mahe region, there are seven positive changes and four negative changes. As regards the Yanam region, one witnesses three positive changes and eight negative changes. With the help of these observations, the values of probability are calculated. The results obtained for marine fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry are as follows: Probability Probability Region to increase to decrease Pondicherry Kar aikal Mahe Yanarn Assuming the principle of continuity, it is reasonable to expect the same trend to prevail in future period also. With this assumption and using the above values of probability, it is seen that Pondicherry and Mahe regions can be expected to have more marine fish production in a year compared to the previous year whereas Karaikal and Yanam regions are likely to have less marine fish production in a year in relation to the previous year. This calls for contingent plans to provide financial and technical assistance to the fishermen

59 in Karaikal and Yanam regions, in anticipation of the likely decline of marine fish production in a year Inland fish production As regards Pondicherry region, one witnesses six positive changes and five negative changes. In respect of Karaikal region, there are six positive changes and five negative changes. In the case of Yanarn region, there are five positive changes and six negative changes. On the basis of these observations, the values of probability are calculated. The following results are obtained for inland fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry: Probability Probability Region to increase to decrease Pondicherry Karaikal Yanam With the help of the above values of probability, Pondicherry and Karaikal regions are expected to have more inland fish production in a year in relation to the previous year while there is a chance for Yanam region to have less inland fish production in a year than the previous year. On account of this result, contingent plans have to be prepared for inland fishery sector in Yanam region Trends in Change of Percentage Share in Total Fish Production Next, the total fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry is considered. The details of the trends in the change of percentage share of the four regions in total fish production are furnished in the following table.

60 Table-4.33: Trends in change of percentage share of regions in quantity of total fish production Year Change in percentage share compared to previous year Pondicherry Karaikal Mahe Yanam By referring to Table-4.33, six positive changes and five negative changes are noticed for Pondicherry region. As regards Karaikal region, there are five positive changes and six negative changes. In the case of Mahe region, one witnesses seven positive changes and four negative changes. The Yanarn region is observed to have three positive changes and eight negative changes. Using these observations, the values of probability are calculated. The following results are got in respect of total fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry: Region Probability to increase Probability to decrease Pondicherry Kar aikal Mahe Yanarn

61 By referring to the above values of probability, it is seen that Karaikal and Yanam regions are likely to have less total fish production in a year compared to the previous year. Consequently, the Government agencies are expected to have adequate financial provision so as to render relief measures at the time of need to the fishermen in Karaikal and Yanam regions Analysis with Stochastic model An objective of the present study is the comparison of the trends in the production of fish in the four regions of Pondicherry Union Territory. Now, stochastic process model is applied to study the behaviour of production of fish and to compare the trends in the four regions. A Stochastical process is obtained as an abstraction of an empirical process by means of laws of probability Percentage share of Pondicherry region in marine fish production Trend in Present Year ~re~lu 111 rrev1uus rear decreasing increasing total decreasing increasing total The transition probability matrix is obtained as:

62 Percentage share of Karaikal region in marine fish production Trend in Previous Year decreasing increasing total Trend in Present Year decreasing increasing total The transition probability matrix works out to Percentage share of Mahe region in marine fish production Trend in Present Year Trend in Previous Year decreasing increasing total decreasing increasing total One obtains transition probability matrix as

63 Percentage share of Yanam region in marine fish production - Trend in Previous Year Trend in Present Year decreasing increasing total decreasing increasing total The transition probability matrix is got as Limiting probabilities for percentage share in marine fish production Region Probability for I3 increasing decreasing trend trend Pondicherry Karaikal Mahe Yanam The limiting matrix obtained indicates that the probability of finding an increasing trend is a / (a + p) and of observing a decreasing trend is P I (a + P). The probabilities for increasing and decreasing trend have been calculated and the results have been furnished. From the above table, it is seen that Pondicherry and Mahe regions have more probability to have increasing trend in the percentage share of marine fish production whereas Karaikal and Mahe regions have more probability for decreasing trend in the same.

64 Percentage share of Pondicherry region in inland fish production Trend in Present Year Trend in Previous Year decreasing increasing total decreasing increasing total 5 5 ' 10 The following transition probability matrix is gat as Percentage share of Karaikal region in inland fish production Trend in Previous Year decreasing increasing total Trend in Present Year decreasing increasing total The transition probability matrix is obtained as Percentage share of Yanam region in inland fish production --- Trend in Previous Year decreasing increasing total Trend in Present Year decreasing increasing total

65 The resulting transition probability matrix is Limiting probabilities for percentage share in inland fish production Probability for Region a P increasing decreasing trend trend Pondicherry Karaikal Yanam From the above table, it is seen that Pondicherry region has equal chance for increasing trend or decreasing trend in the percentage share of inland fish production. Karaikal region has more probability to have increasing trend in the percentage share of inland fish production whereas Yanam region has more probability for decreasing trend in the same Analysis by Coefficient of Correlation Next, the situation of fish production in the four regions.of the Union Territory during the period to is analysed with the help of the coefficient of correlation. Different pairs of geographical areas are taken up and the corresponding coefficient of correlation for quantity of fish production for the different sectors are calculated. The results obtained are furnished in the following table.

66 Table-4.34: Coefficient of Correlation between pairs of regions in the quantity of fish production during to Pair of geographical areas Coefficient of Correlation for quantity of fish production Marine Inland Both Pondicherry - Karaikal Pondicherry - Mahe Pondicherry - Yanam Karaikal - Mahe Karaikal - Yanam Mahe - Yanam In respect of the quantity of fish production in the marine sector, Pondicherry and Karaikal regions are appreciably positively correlated. The pairs (i) Pondicherry - Yanam and (ii) Karaikal - Yanam are negatively correlated. In the case of the pairs (i) Pondicherry - Mahe, (ii) Karaikal - Mahe and (iii) Mahe - Yanam, there is no appreciable correlation. The positive correlation between Pondicherry and Karaikal regions indicates the likelyhood of increasing trend or decreasing trend in both regions together in any year. The negative correlation between the pairs (i) Pondicherry - Yanam and (ii) Karaikal - Yanam indicates that when one expects an increasing trend in Pondicherry and Karaikal regions, the Yanam region is expected to have a decreasing trend and vise versa. This finding would enable the planners in the preparation of strategic planning for fisheries sector in the four different regions of the Union Territory. In the case of the inland fish production, there is a high positive correlation between Pondicherry and Karaikal regions. It is observed that there is no correlation between the following two pairs of regions: (i) Pondicherry - Yanam and (ii) Karaikal - Yanam

67 As regards the total fish production, one witnesses high positive correlation between Pondicherry and Karaikal regions. There is a high negative correlation in the case of the pairs (i) Pondicherry - Yanam and (ii) Karaikal - Yanam. There is no appreciable correlation in the case of the following three pairs: (i) Pondicherry - Mahe (ii) Karaikal - Mahe and (ili) Mahe - Yanarn The existence of high positive correlation between Pondicherry and Karaikal regions in the quantity of marine fish production, inland fish production and total fish production may be attributed to the following factors: (i) Pondicherry and Karaikal are situated along the Bay of Bengal, not much distant from each other; (ii) The craft and gear technology used in both regions bears homogeneity; (iii) Both regions have almost similar climatic conditions. The absence of any correlation between Yanam region and either of Pondicherry or Karaikal regions may be attributed to the following factors: (i) Even though Yanam region is along the Bay of Bengal like Pondicherry and Karaikal, the craft and gear technology used in Yanam region is different from that in the other two regions; (ii) The climatic conditions of Yanam region differs significantly from those of Pondicherry and Karaikal regions; (iii) The fertility of fishing ground in Yanam region is more congenial for the growth of fish varieties.

68 Part - I11 Analysis of Species-wise Marine Fish Production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry In the previous part of this chapter, the contributions of different regions in the Union Terrltory to marine and inland fish production were analysed. It has been observed that the contribution from marine sector is more significant than that from inland sector. In the case of marine fish production, there are several varieties of fish. The details of region-wise availability of different species of marine fishes in the Union Territory of Pondicherry have been presented in Table Most of the marine species are found in all the four regions while certain species are specific to individual geographical areas. In the present part of this chapter, the details of the different marine species of fish that are produced in the Union Territory as a whole are taken for discussion Marine fish species in the Union Territory There are 28 significant marine species in the Union Territory of Pondicherry as per the records of the Government of Pondicherry. The other varieties of marine fishes are clubbed together and put under the category of 'Miscellaneous Fishes'. Within a single variety of fish, there may be sub categories. example, the category 'clupeiods' consists of For the following varieties: (a) Sardines, (b) Anchovies, (c) Thrissocles, (d) Hilsa Ilisa, (e) Hilsa others, (f) Other Clupeiods. Under the category of 'Perches', there are two varieties listed below: (a) Perches. (b) Perches like fish. The category of 'Carangids' includes the following varieties: (a) Caranx, (b) Chorineums, (c) Elagatis spp, (d) Other Carangids.

69 'Crustanceans' consists of the following varieties: (a) Penaeid, (b) Non- Penaeid, (c) Lobster, (d) Deep Sea lobster, (e) Other crustaceans. The data on the marine fish landings of some commercially important species in the Union Territory during the period to are presented in Table Because of relatively low production, the marine fish varieties 'Belone and Hemiramphus', are excluded from the purview of analysis. Due to the non availability of data, on 'Jew fish' during certain years of the study period, this species is also omitted from the analysis. Since several species of small quantities are clubbed together under 'Miscellaneous species', this is also not included in the analysis. All the other marine species in the Union Territory of Pondicherry are taken up for consideration. The different varieties under the category of clupeiods are pooled together as the species 'Clupeiods' for the purpose of analysis. Similarly, the quantities of varieties under the names of 'Perches', 'Carangids', and 'Crustanceans' are taken together in the respective category of species. These data are analysed to determine the efficiency of production of the marine species in the Union Territory durhg the period of study.

70 Table-4.35: Production of economically important marine fish species in the Union Territory of Pondicherry ( to ) (in tonnes) $ Species No Elasmobranchs ' Clupeiods: (a) Sardines (c) Thrissocles (d) Hilsa Ilisha (e) Hilsa Others I-+ VI t4 (f) Other Clupeiods Chirocentrus Harpodon Nehereus Cat Fishes Saurida spp Eel Belone and Hemiramphus Exocoetus spp Bregmaceros spp Sphyraena

71 1990- Species No. 91 t;: w 12. Mullets Polynemids (a) Perches (b)perchlikefish Lactarius Carangids: (a) Caranx (b) Chorinemus (c) Elagatis spp (d) Other Carangids Sciaenids Red Mullets Ribbon fish Mackerels Seer Fish Tunnies Pornfrets Soles

72 Species No VI P 26. Crustanceans: (a) Penaeid (b) Non-Penaeid (c) Lobster (d) Deep sea lobster -- (e) Other crustaceans Molluses cephalopoda cuttle fish 28. Jew fish Misc. Fishes Total Source: Various issues of annual administration reports, Department of Fisheries and Fishermen Welfare, Government of Pondicherry.

73 4.16. Production efficiency It may be noted that all the 28 species are not of equal importance from economic or commercial angle. We have therefore attempted to identify the individual species, which have economic importance. The information will be useful for evolving appropriate strategies and also for determining investment and resource allocation in the context of fisheries planning. The economic importance of a species depends upon (a) volume of fish landings, (b) growth rate of species, (c) stability in fish landings and (d) unit price. The production efficiency has been examined by using the method originally employed by H. Bhattacharya (2002). Considering the three factors namely, (1) quantum of fish landings, (2) growth rate of species and (3) stability in fish landings. In this method an efficiency indicator is worked out for each species using the following formula. Species ;Efficiency Indicator = Compound Annual Growth Rate for the Species X Share of the species in the Total Marine Landing X The Level of Stability for the species purpose is The compound annual growth rate formula used in this study for the r = antiog of p -1 where, 'r' is the annual compound growth rate and p is the regression CO-efficient. To examine the level of stability, the statistical technique employed is 1 - CV where CV is the co-efficient of variation.

74 Calculation of production efficiency index for a species The Species Efficiency Indicator is determined for each species and the values are summed up. The production efficiency index for each species is worked out as percentage. Thus, one has to consider the ratio of product efficiency indicator for each species to the sum of the indicators and express it as a percentage. After the calculation of production efficiency indices, the species are ranked in the decreasing order of the indices in order to indicate their importance Analysis for the period to The species efficiency indicator and the production efficiency index for each species are worked out for the 26 species of marine fish production in the Union Territory of Pondicherry. The results are presented in the sequel Analysis for the period to The results pertaining to the species efficiency indicators and the resulting production efficiency indices for 26 marine species during the period to are furnished in Table After determining the production efficiency indices for various species, they are arranged in decreasing order so as to arrive at a ranking of these species in terms of the efficiency of production. From Table-4.36, it is seen that the production efficiency index is positive for 16 species, while it is zero for one species 'Harpodon Neheres' and negative for the remaining nine species. The marine fish variety 'Perches' tops the list with a production efficiency index of

75 Table-4.36: Production Efficiency Indices of 26 Marine Species in Pondicherry Union Territory during the Period to Mean value Coefficient Compound Share of of Level of Species Production S1. Standard of annual No. Name of Species production deviation variation = growth marine stability efficiency efficiency p.a. 1- CV indicator index SDMean rate production (tonnes) 1 Perches 2280, Mullets Seer Fish Mackerels Elasmobranchs Carangids Tunnies Crustanceans Cat Fishes Molluses Leiognathus Pornfrets Saurida spp. Sp hyraena Exocoetus spp Bregmaceros spp Harpodon Nehere Lactarius Soles Eel Red Mullets Chirocentrus Sciaenids Ribben fishs Polynemids Clupeiods

76 It is joined by other species in the following order: Mullets Seer Fish Mackerels Elasmobranchs Carangids Tunnie s Crustanceans Cat Fishes Molluses Leio gnathus Pomfrets Saurida spp. Sphyranena Of these varieties, 'Leiognathus' and 'Pornfrets' have got equal ranks. It is observed that even though 'Bregmaceros spp' and 'Harpodon Neheres' have positive ranks, they are not very much significant. In the case of the other species, the rankings are negative Sub period analysis In order to have a better understanding of the importance of different marine fish varieties, the period of study is divided into the following two sub periods: (i) First Sub Period: to and (ii) Second Sub Period: to The results for these two sub periods are described below: Analysis of the First Sub Period The results pertaining to the production efficiency indices for 26 marine species during the first sub period to are presented in Table-4.37.

77 Table-4.37: Production Efficiency Indices of 26 Marine Species in Pondicherry Union Territory during First Sub Period ( to ) S1. No. Name of Species Crustanceans Mackerels Perches Seer Fish Cat Fishes Elasmobr anchs Mullets Pornfrets Tunnies Soles Red Mullets Exocoetus spp Saurida spp. Sciaenids Sphyraena Bregmaceros spp Harpodon Nehere Chirocentrus Lactarius Eel Ribbon fish Molluses Polynemids Carangids Leiognathus Clupeiods Mean value of production p.a. (tonnes) Standard deviation Coefficient of variation = SD/Mean Compound annual growth rate Share of total marine production Level of stability 1- cv Species efficiency indicator Production efficiency index

78 From Table-4.37, it is seen that the production efficiency index is positive for 16 species and negative for the other 10 species. The marine fish variety 'Crustanceans' gets the first rank in the list with a production efficiency index of Analysis of the Second Sub Period The results concerning the production efficiency indices for 26 marine species during the second sub period to are furnished in Table-4.38.

79 S1. No. Table-4.38: Production Efficiency Indices of 26 Marine Species in Pondicherry Union Territory during Second Sub Period ( to ) Name of Species Crustanceans Mullets Elasmobranchs Seer Fish Perches Molluses Saurida spp. Tunnies Sp hyr aena Harpodon Nehere Exocoetus spp Bregmaceros spp Eel Lactarius Chirocentrus Polynemids Sciaenids Leiognathus Cat Fishes Pornfrets Soles Clupeiods Ribben fishs Mackerels Fted Mullets Carangids Mean value of production pa. (tonnes) Standard deviation Coefficient of variation = SDMean Compound annual growth rate Share of total marine production Level of stability 1- cv Species efficiency indicator Production efficiency index