The Federal R&D Budget: Overview and Outlook

Transcription

1 Society of Research Administrators International Webinars The Federal R&D Budget: Overview and Outlook Wednesday, February 5, 2014 Society of Research Administrators International This Webinar is being recorded.

2 Presented by: Matt Hourihan AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program 2 This Webinar is being recorded.

3 Federal Spending as a Percent of GDP, % 25% 20% 15% Defense Discretionary Nondefense Discretionary Mandatory 10% 5% Net Interest 0% Source: Budget of the U.S. Government FY AAAS

4 Federal R&D in the Budget and the Economy Outlays as share of total, % 2.5% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.5% R&D as a Share of the Federal Budget (Left Scale) 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5% R&D as a Share of GDP (Right Scale) 0.0% 0.0% Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY FY 2013 data do not reflect sequestration. FY 2014 is the President's request AAAS

5 *Keep in mind Department of Defense development activities have declined more than everything else

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7 R&D Change by Budget Function, Percent change from FY 2004 in constant dollars, post-sequestration Applied Energy Programs 18.3% Commerce (NIST) 18.9% Environment Agencies -20.9% Agriculture -20.3% General Science (NSF, DOE SC) 8.5% Space* -14.8% Health (NIH) -13.4% Defense Activities -16.0% -30% -10% 10% 30% * To avoid comparability challenges, "Space" refers to total NASA budget authority rather than R&D spending. It does not include Aeronautics, which is in the "Transportation" function, not shown. Source: AAAS analysis of historical data and current R&D data, agency budget justifications and other budget documents. Select DHS programs were categorized in Defense and General Science in prior years; the above data have been adjusted for comparability AAAS

8 Recent R&D Budget History R&D down by 8.4 percent between FY10 and FY12 August 2011: Budget Control Act AAAS estimated ~$50 billion R&D cuts in first 5 years January 2013: American Taxpayer Relief Act FY 2013: Sequester cuts nearly $10 billion more Summer 2013: Appropriators operate under two different spending baselines December 2013 budget deal: 50% sequester rollback for FY14

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10 Department of Defense DOD R&D cut, but not to S&T programs Basic research at all-time high Nanotechnology, materials science DARPA: small from FY12 Medical research BIG increase

11 NIH Continuing stagnation Most institutes about halfway between sequester and FY12 Largest increases: National Institute on Aging, NCATS Translational medicine, Alzheimer s research, BRAIN Initiative, National Children s Study Success rates down to 16.8 percent in FY13

12 Department of Energy Generally good news Science: much closer to Senate mark Advanced Computing and Fusion (especially domestic research) Energy Frontier Research Centers at $100 million Clean energy programs (EERE, ARPA-E) avoid the guillotine NNSA R&D also picked up significant funding DOE R&D at all-time high

13 NASA Positive outcomes for Science, Exploration Planetary Science avoids deeper cuts; Europa Mission? Largest increase for Webb Telescope Skepticism toward asteroid mission Clear commitment to nextgeneration flights systems, also commercial spaceflight Aeronautics, Space Tech flat

14 National Science Foundation Lower number than other agencies, about even with FY12 Appropriator support for ocean research, cybersecurity, advanced manufacturing R&D, neuroscience Social Sciences research restrictions lifted Large Synoptic Survey Telescope to commence construction Likely to fall short of COMPETES Act doubling target

15 USDA Another good outcome Intramural R&D: Request matched Minus poultry research center Extramural R&D: closer to Dems than GOP Big boost for AFRI Forest Service dodges cuts Farm Bill establishes ag research foundation

16 Other notes Environmental agencies (EPA, USGS) come up short DHS got (mostly) what it wanted NIST not looking bad Patient outcomes research (via Obamacare) not funded

17 TOTAL

18 GDP

19 Looking ahead President s budget to be released March 4, for now Priorities: manufacturing, clean energy, climate, IT and computing, biological innovation, neuroscience, STEM Ed Discretionary spending limit in FY 2015 has already been agreed And will increase hardly at all 25% of sequester reductions rolled back Big-picture fiscal challenges remain largely unchanged Beyond FY 2015: back to sequester levels

20 Current Politics: The Pong Model? Raise revenues! Cut spending! The science and innovation budget Obviously, a very facile oversimplification!

21 For More Information.. Presentation: Matt Hourihan Questions on SRA International Webinars: Michelle Young 21 This Webinar is being recorded.