Lohnen sich INVESTITIONEN in NACHHALTIGE Immobilien?

Transcription

1 Forum Building Science 2011 Lohnen sich INVESTITIONEN in NACHHALTIGE Immobilien? Vis. Prof. Dr. Jürg R. Bernet, MSc MBA MRICS Department für Bauen und Umwelt Donau-Universität Krems

2 PROJECT Danube University Krems (Austria) in cooperation with Kingston University London WORKING PAPER 2 V20, April 23, 2011 AUTHORS Juerg R. Bernet, Sarah Sayce, Rupert C. Ledl and Maarten Vermeulen GRANTS Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, RICS Education Trust Austrian Chamber of Commerce, Federation of Real Estate Professionals EURO Institute of Real Estate Management

3 WINNING IN THE LONG RUN? Driving Sustainable Financial Performance on Real Estate AUTHORS Juerg R. Bernet Sarah Sayce Maarten Vermeulen Rupert C. Ledl Working Paper 2 V20 MAR-28, 2011

4 The Content of this Working Paper 0 PROJECT Summary Platform Partners I 1 ISSUE II 2 APPROACH 3 ANALYSIS III 4 RESULTS A APPENDIX

5 The Need for an Independent Research Platform Sustainable Investment in Real Estate OPPORTUNITY. Reallocation. Responsibility. Redevelopment THREAT. Legislation. Reputation. Obsolescence STRENGTH. Leadership. Expertise. Innovation DESIGN MANAGEMENT TOOLS PROVIDE EXPERT NETWORKING WEAKNESS. Intransparency. Irrationality. Uncertainty VERIFY MARKET EVIDENCE support Industry Initiatives

6 ... Content... 0 PROJECT Summary Platform Partners I 1 ISSUE Situation Questions Deliverables Focus II 2 APPROACH 3 ANALYSIS III 4 RESULTS A APPENDIX

7 The Empirical Search for the Green Alpha Bernet & Sayce et al. (EU): (work in progress) Wiley et al. (USA): Rent 7..17%, Occupancy % Fuerst & McAllister (USA): Occupancy 3..8% Leopoldsberger et al. (DE): Rent 0..6% Salvi et al. (CH): Rent 5..6% Fuerst & McAllister (USA): Rent 5..6%, Price % Pivo & Fisher (USA): Net Income 6%, Value 13% Eichholtz et al. (USA): Rent 3..6%, Price 16% Cudworth & Graham (UK): Return -3% Miller et al. (USA): Rent 0..3%, Price 15%, Value 10% Fuerst & McAllister (USA): Rent 4..5%, Price % Eichholtz et al. (USA): Rent 2..6% Salvi et al. (CH): Price 3..7%

8 The Value of a Sustained Growing Cash Flow CV = CF ³ ( 1+ g) 1+ IRR + CF ³ ( 1+g) 2 (1+ IRR) 2 + = t ( ) ( ) CF ³ 1+g 1+ g  ¼ CV - CF ³ t IRR-g 1+IRR t = 1 IRR y + g with y = CF / NPV, CF = R V O D T, g = ΔR ΔV ΔO ΔD ΔT INDEX: CF = Initial cash flow, CV = Initial capital value, D = Capital expenditure, g = Sustainable net growth rate, IRR = Internal rate of return, O = Non-recoverable operating and maintenance cost, R = Gross rental and other income, T = Property and environment taxes, V = Vacancy cost, y = Initial net income yield, Δ = Sustainable growth

9 The Business Case for a Sustainable Investment INFLOW OUTFLOW PRESERVE! Income Growth Income Yield Performance Drivers Vacancy Cost Operating Cost Capital Expenditure Environmental Tax (Inflation) REDUCE!? RATE OF RETURN

10 Which Indicators Drive Sustainable Performance Standing Investment Sustainability Indicators Sustainable Investment Observations y R V O D T Financial Drivers? y R V O D T Expectations SHORT POSITION SUSTAINABLE PERFORMANCE PLAN (I 1, I 2,..., I n ) LONG POSITION

11 Deliverables to the Project Stakeholders Public Partners Trustees Board Team Research project plan Project presentation charts Academic conference papers Financial sustainability scorecard Research programme website Aggregated data set Integrated analytical model Professional magazine articles Project partner workshops Investor panel discussions Performance indicator list Research project report Management summary brochure Reviewed journal paper

12 The Focus of a First Empirical Study in Europe INVESTMENT FUNDS POLICY, LEADERSHIP Investors RESEARCH PORTFOLIO Structure F/C 2, F/P 20% ASSETS

13 ... Content... 0 PROJECT Summary Platform Partners I 1 ISSUE Situation Questions Deliverables Focus II 2 APPROACH Framework Concept Scorecard Model 3 ANALYSIS III 4 RESULTS A APPENDIX

14 Towards a Framework of Sustainability Metrics INVESTORS GPF (PCI), BPF-GPA (GPA), IIGCC (GPA), IPF (ISPI;GPA), GRA (GR), GRESB (GRESB), ISA (BREEAM) REGULATORS EC (EPD;EPBD;GBP;EPC;DEC;ETS), ISO (14000;15392), CEN (EN15643) AUDITORS GRI (G3;CRESS), VERITAS, KPMG, CBRE? COUNCILS WRI/WBCSD (GHG), BBP (SBT), SBA (CMF), UNEP-FI/SBCI (FSMR;MPM;CCM) ASSOCIATIONS RICS (VIP13;CP), ICSC(BREEAM), EPRA (G3;CRESS), INREV, ULI RATING BODIES BRE (BREEAM), GBCI (LEED), DGNB (DGNB), BMVBS (BNB), AHQE (HQE), MINERGIE (M-P-ECO) UNIVERSITIES KU (SAP), HBS, CCSR (ESI), ECCE (EREI), EURO/DUK (SIRE) ANALYSTS IPD (ECO;ISPI), DTZ, FERI, JLL (OSCAR;3D;PCI)

15 The Concept of Driving Sustainability Indicators economic Financial Report EXTERNALITIES A S S E T MANAGEMENT natural social Sustainability Report

16 The Financial Sustainability Scorecard Asset Externalities Management PHYSICAL ECONOMIC NATURAL SOCIAL LEGAL FINANCIAL ID TOPIC ITEM METRIC DEF P1 Age Building completion year... P2 Last refurbishment year... P3 Size Total area m2... P4 Rental area m2... P5 Main floors number... P6 Ceiling height m... P7 Type Building shape type... P8 Building flexibility type... P9 Building management type... s-i-r-e v 1.0

17 The Financial Sustainability Scorecard Asset Externalities Management PHYSICAL ECONOMIC NATURAL SOCIAL LEGAL FINANCIAL ID TOPIC ITEM METRIC DEF E1 Monetary Local currency rate LCU/Euro... E2 Money market yield % pa... E3 Government bond yield % pa... E4 Core inflation rate % pa... E5 Corporate Gross domestic prouct growth % pa... E6 Sectoral diversity factor... E7 Private Direct income 000 LCU... E8 Private wealth mlcu... E9 Consumer spending index... s-i-r-e v 1.0

18 The Financial Sustainability Scorecard Asset Externalities Management PHYSICAL ECONOMIC NATURAL SOCIAL LEGAL FINANCIAL ID TOPIC ITEM METRIC DEF N1 Climate Weather conditions monitored DD... N2 Flood risk registered yes/no... N3 Energy Total energy used kwh... N4 Renewable energy used/produced kwh... N5 Emission Greenhouse gases emitted t CO2e... N6 Water Total water used m3... N7 Water recycled/harvested m3... N8 Waste Total waste disposed t... N9 Waste recycled/composted t... s-i-r-e v 1.0

19 The Financial Sustainability Scorecard Asset Externalities Management PHYSICAL ECONOMIC NATURAL SOCIAL LEGAL FINANCIAL ID TOPIC ITEM METRIC DEF S1 Community Educational diversity ratio... S2 Job creation %... S3 Mobility services score... S4 Health status index... S5 Tenant Tenant mix factor... S6 Tenant engagement level... S7 Employee Employees FTE... S8 Visitor Visits number... S9 Visitor engagement level... s-i-r-e v 1.0

20 The Financial Sustainability Scorecard Asset Externalities Management PHYSICAL ECONOMIC NATURAL SOCIAL LEGAL FINANCIAL ID TOPIC ITEM METRIC DEF L1 Legislation Energy efficiency regulation type... L2 Carbon taxation on building year... L3 Carbon taxation on transport year... L4 Policy Green building certification type... L5 Owner sustainability report year... L6 Occupier sustainability report %... L7 Agreement Remaining lease length years... L8 Building operation period hrs... L9 Green lease implementation level... s-i-r-e v 1.0

21 The Financial Sustainability Scorecard Asset Externalities Management PHYSICAL ECONOMIC NATURAL SOCIAL LEGAL FINANCIAL ID TOPIC ITEM METRIC DEF F1 Inflow Rental income 000 LCU... F2 Other income 000 LCU... F3 Outflow Vacancy cost 000 LCU... F4 Non-recoverable operating cost 000 LCU... F5 Maintenance cost 000 LCU... F6 Capital expenditure 000 LCU... F7 Property and environmental tax 000 LCU... F8 Other Recoverable operating cost 000 LCU... F9 Initial capital value mlcu... s-i-r-e v 1.0

22 The Analytical Model of an Integrated Approach SUSTAINABILITY INDICATORS ASSET EXTERNALITIES economic natural social MANAGEMENT Independent Variables ANALYTICAL MODEL CFA Cash-Flow Analysis MFR Multi-Factor Regression ROA Real Option Analysis Mathematical Functions PERFORMANCE DRIVERS INFLOW Income Yield Income Growth OUTFLOW Vacancy Cost Operating Cost Capital Expenditure Environmental Tax Dependent Variables

23 WINNING IN THE LONG RUN? Driving Sustainable Financial Performance on Real Estate AUTHORS Juerg R. Bernet Sarah Sayce Maarten Vermeulen Rupert C. Ledl Working Paper 2 20 MAR-28, 2011