Urban Growth Area Review City of Bellingham Preliminary UGA Growth Allocation Proposal

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1 Bellingham Growth Allocation Proposal December 3, 2013 Urban Growth Area Review City of Bellingham Preliminary UGA Growth Allocation Proposal December 3, 2013

2 I. Introduction Growth Management Act (GMA) planning goal 11 requires coordination between jurisdictions in the planning process (RCW 36.70A.020(11)). Additionally, the GMA indicates that county and city comprehensive plans must be coordinated and consistent when they share common borders or related regional issues (RCW 36.70A.100). Therefore, Whatcom County and the cities are undertaking a joint planning process to allocate population and employment growth in association with the urban growth area review, which must be completed by June 2016 (RCW 36.70A.130). The population and employment growth allocation process is being undertaken in several phases. Phase I - As an initial step in this process, the cities and County jointly funded a report entitled Whatcom County Population and Employment Projections and Urban Growth Allocations Phase I Technical Report (BERK, July 22, 2013). This report shows how future population and employment growth would be allocated to UGAs if based primarily on historical shares. Phase II - Cities and County are not required to plan for the future based solely upon past trends. Local government goals and policies, public input, infrastructure availability, land capacity, and other factors are also taken into consideration. Existing interlocal agreements indicate that the County and cities will work together to develop proposed population and employment allocations to UGAs. At the request of the County, each city is developing recommended population and employment allocations for their respective UGAs. These recommendations will be subject to public review prior to consideration of a non-binding multi-jurisdictional resolution relating to preliminary growth allocations by the County Council and seven cities councils in The preliminary growth allocations approved in the multi-jurisdictional resolution would provide a common starting point for conducting environmental review, further analyzing land capacity, developing draft land use planning proposals, transportation modeling and developing draft capital facility plans. Final growth allocations would be adopted in the 2016 Comprehensive Plan update. 1

3 II. City Profile On the shores of Bellingham Bay with Mount Baker as its backdrop, Bellingham is the last major city before the Washington coastline meets the Canadian border. Bellingham serves as the county seat of Whatcom County, and accommodates about half of the county's population and about two thirds of its jobs. Prior to white settlement, the Lummi, Nooksack and other Coast Salish tribes thrived on the natural resources of what would eventually become Bellingham. English Captain George Vancouver first explored the area in 1792 and named Bellingham Bay for Sir William Bellingham, Vancouver's British Navy provisioner. Small communities came and went on the shores of Bellingham Bay through boom and bust cycles during the 1800s. The City of Bellingham incorporated in 1904 after the populations of four adjacent bayside towns voted to consolidate. Bellingham's historic character is remarkably well-preserved, with a large number of historic buildings downtown, in Fairhaven's Historic District, and in adjacent neighborhoods. Today Bellingham is the hub of a robust local and regional economy and home to a diverse business community featuring large and small companies across many sectors. Excellence in education is a hallmark of our community. Nationally lauded K-12 public schools, two community colleges, and Western Washington University consistently ranked high among public regional universities all call Bellingham home. In addition to its marine port facilities, Bellingham sits on the Interstate 5 highway, and Burlington Northern rail corridors connecting the Vancouver BC and Seattle metro areas. In recent years the Bellingham airport has seen dramatic increases in numbers of flights, passengers, and offered destinations. This trend has spurred development of hotels, retail centers, and services in the northwest corner of the City and unincorporated urban growth area. Bellingham's plans for the future focus largely on infill and sustainable redevelopment. Since adoption of its 2006 Comprehensive Plan, the City has approved master plans for Old Town, Samish Way, the Fountain District, and Fairhaven urban villages. Master plans for the Downtown and Waterfront areas are also in their final stages and will be adopted soon. Like the rest of Whatcom County, Bellingham's population saw slow but steady growth through the 1950's to 1980's averaging about 1% annual growth. Beginning in 1986 the growth rate increased to just over 2%. The period 1990 to 2010 saw Bellingham's urban growth area population grow from 60,714 to 91,251. This represents an increase of about 30,500 people, or 50%. 2

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6 III. Preliminary UGA Growth Allocation Proposal This section of the report compares the Phase I Technical Report medium UGA growth allocation (BERK, July 22, 2013), which is based primarily upon historical population and employment shares, to the preliminary City proposal for growth allocations to the UGA. UGA Population Allocation Proposal 1 Phase I - Technical Report Medium Growth Allocation 28,398 2 Phase II - Preliminary City Proposal 35,918 3 Difference 7,520 4 Comments: The City of Bellingham Planning Commission and City Council recommend use of the high range population growth forecast as the starting point for the update to the City's Comprehensive Plan. The City's proposal is consistent with the BERK high allocation. Bellingham's proposal is consistent with past trends. The city has averaged annual growth of 1,527 people per year (ppy) over the last 20 years. The BERK high allocation is closest (1,562 ppy) to the past growth rate. The BERK medium allocation forecasts a much lower growth rate for Bellingham (1,235 ppy). Bellingham will continue to be a desirable place to live. We are not willing at this point to accept the assumption that future growth will be less than past history, as would be the case if the BERK medium allocation is used. We believe that it is more responsible to plan for a higher growth rate than to plan for a drop in the rate of growth that might not occur. Since 2006, the City has adopted urban village plans for Fairhaven, the Fountain District, Samish Way, Old Town and the Waterfront District. These actions have added capacity for thousands of additional dwelling units in areas where residential development was not allowed under the previous zoning. We have also made approximately 1,300 acres of land available for urban levels of development through annexations approved since The City administration and Council believe that cities are the appropriate location for the majority of population growth. Accordingly, Bellingham is willing to plan for a higher percentage of total countywide growth and we recommend that the allocation to the rural areas be reduced. We support continued efforts by Whatcom County and the other cities to reduce the rate of population growth in the rural and unincorporated areas of the county and are willing to do our part to accomplish this important goal. 5

7 UGA Employment Allocation Proposal 1 Phase I - Technical Report Medium Growth Allocation 17,551 2 Phase II - Preliminary City Proposal 22,641 3 Difference 5,090 4 Comments: The City of Bellingham Planning Commission and City Council recommend use of the high range employment growth forecast as the starting point for the update to the City's Comprehensive Plan. The City's proposal is consistent with the BERK high allocation for Bellingham employment growth to Bellingham is the employment center of the county, with about 64% of the total county employment. We believe it is important to plan for an appropriate rate of job growth along with the high range population allocation. This is supported by the comprehensive plan goal to provide people with the opportunity to work, shop and recreate near where they live. The City is currently reviewing several annexation proposals that, once approved, will add significant capacity to the city's employment land supply. 6

8 IV. Land Capacity Analysis Overview A land capacity analysis compares the proposed growth allocations to the capacity of the UGA to accommodate growth. The land capacity analysis is an important tool for sizing UGAs. Preliminary land capacity analysis results for the Phase II City Proposal, based upon existing UGA boundaries, are shown below. A surplus or deficit will be considered by the city when evaluating potential UGA boundary changes. Residential Land Capacity Analysis Results 1 Population Growth Capacity of existing UGA 27,006 2 Population Growth Allocation Proposed 35,918 3 Surplus (Deficit) (8,912) 4 Comments: Note that the land capacity numbers are preliminary. It may be appropriate to revise market factors used in the city's urban villages for example. This simple change would bring the capacity estimate much closer to the proposed allocation. There are a number of additional actions that the city could take to increase the capacity, including adding land to the UGA. These options will be evaluated in the update to the comprehensive plan. Commercial/Industrial Land Capacity Analysis Results 1 Employment Growth Capacity 20,305 2 Employment Growth Allocation Proposed 22,641 3 Surplus (Deficit) (2,336) 4 Comments: See previous comments regarding residential land capacity. It may be appropriate to revise the LCA methodology slightly to reflect the actual higher floor area ratios in many areas of the city. This simple change would add significant capacity. There are a number of other actions that the city could take to increase capacity, including adding land to the UGA. These options will be evaluated in the update to the comprehensive plan. 7