FOURTH POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES FORUM BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

Transcription

1 FOURTH POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES FORUM BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA Ljerka Maric, BH Council of Ministers 26. June, 2007 Athens, Greece

2 MTDS - LATEST INFORMATION ON IMPLEMENTATION Report on Implementation of MTDS is prepared on semi-annual basis. By the end of 2006, 922 measures were planned for implementation Close to 62% of the measures, or 569 measures were either completed or in continuous implementation Out of the total number of measures, 66 measures were not implemented, which is 7.2% of the total number of measures % % 61.70% Total number of measures Completed or continuously implemeted Not implemented In realization Completed or continuously implemeted

3 MTDS - LATEST INFORMATION ON IMPLEMENTATION (2) 62.10% 61.50% 55.02% B&H CoM RS GOVERNMENT FBIH GOVERNMENT Success in implementation of MTDS measures by B&H governments

4 MTDS - LATEST INFORMATION ON IMPLEMENTATION (3) 90% 86% 76% RS National Assembly B&H Parliamentary Assembly FBiH Parliament Success in implementation of MTDS measures by B&H parliaments

5 MTDS - LATEST INFORMATION ON IMPLEMENTATION (4) Success in implementation Uspješnost u implementaciji of MTDS measures mjera in iz area of macro-economic framework makroekonomskog and okvira private i rasta sector privatnog growth sektora MAKROFISKALNI OKVIR POSLOVNO OKRUZENJE PRIVATIZACIJA FINANSIJE TRZISTE RADA VANJSKA TRGOVINA KORUPCIJA JAVNA UPRAVA STATISTIKA NIJE U TOKU REALIZACIJE U TOKU REALIZACIJE KOMPLETIRANO ILI SE KONTINUIRANO IMPLEMENTIRA Izvor: Izvještaj o implementaciji Akcionog plana Srednjoročne razvojne strategije BiH za period avgust 2003 decembar 2006 Source: Report on implementation of MTDS for period August 2003-December 2006

6 MTDS - LATEST INFORMATION ON IMPLEMENTATION (5) Uspješnost Success u in implementaciji implementation mjera of iz MTDS oblasti measures in sektorskih area of prioriteta sectoral priorities SOCIJALNI SEKTOR OBRAZOVANJE ZDRAVSTVO POLJOPRIVREDA OKOLIS VODOPRIVREDA ENERGETIKA INFRASTRUKTURA INDUSTRIJA TURIZAM DEMINIRANJE ICT GENDER LJUDSKA PRAVA KOMPLETIRANO U TOKU REALIZACIJE NIJE U TOKU REALIZACIJE Izvor: Izvještaj o implementaciji Akcionog plana Srednjoročne razvojne strategije BiH za period avgust 2003 decembar 2006

7 BASIC ECONOMIC INDICATORS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,713 11,599 12,829 13,443 14,678 15,791 17,553 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, * Bruto Gross domaći domestic proizvod, product, mil. KM KM million Source: BiH Agency for Statistics *Estimate

8 FOREIGN TRADE SECTOR Introduction of VAT 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, K K K K K K K K K Imports Exports Deficit Source: BiH Central Bank

9 REGISTERED NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED IN B&H, MONTHLY DATA (in,000) I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Source: Employment agencies of FBiH, RS and DB, DB Statistical office

10 AVERAGE WAGES IN B&H (in KM), MONTHLY DATA I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Source: BiH Agency for Statistics

11 INDIRECT TAXATION INCOME (in KM million) January 1, 2005 Transfer of all authority for collection of indirect taxes to B&H Indirect Taxation Authority January 1, 2006 Introduction of VAT Road Toll Customs Duties VAT Total indirect taxes Source: B&H Indirect Taxation Authority

12 B&H APPROACH TO DEVELOPMENT Post-war BiH has had two types of documents which define strategic development directions at the state level, to date: 1. Documents oriented towards World Bank / IMF documents targeting international donations and loans/credits (PRSP, MTDS..) 2. Documents oriented towards EU targeting the EU accession process (EU Accession Strategy, NDP...) Apart from those there are other policy analysis documents: 1. Variuos types of statistical research 2. UNDP Human Development Report 3. Strategic donor documents, which represent the basis for their support 12

13 13 MAIN CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MTDS PROCESS The planning of national development is the core of the MTDS document and process and it consisted and consists of the following steps : 1. Status diagnosis 2. Moves toward planning and allocation of funds 3. Policy Implementation process 4. M&E development These steps should provide precondition for evident based policy making approach.

14 CHALLENGES IN IMPLEMENTING & MONITORING THE MTDS MTDS has wide spread of terminology, targets and indicators Multi level Government with variable response to implementation of MTDS measures Limited capacity to manage implementation and monitor MTDS not effectively connected with budgets Very poor prioritization of the measures in the original MTDS Little connection between macro goals and local planning Many information and data gaps, particularly regarding social sector EPPU/DEP Lacking of contacts at local levels to develop qualitative monitoring Information related to administrative measures rather than impact on service delivery or Impact citizens 14

15 CHALLENGES IN IMPLEMENTING & MONITORING THE MTDS (2) MTDS process represents progression and learning process Up to date implementation & monitoring process increase capacity of public administration on state and entity levels for creation of evident base policy making DEP and partners currently o o o o building capacity developing new information and new processes establishing local linkages to build up local level data and connections working on qualitative information on effective implementation performance 15

16 LESSONS LEARNED and MAIN RESULTS OF MTDS PROCESS Common activities relating to development of B&H ( state, entities, DB) are possible For successful implementation it is necessary to respect political reality Commitment of the decision makers required for achievement of goals Prioritisation of activities and resource allocation required Introduction of responsibilities Initial steps in capacity building of the public administration bodies Better coordination between governmental structures on all levels Creation of the structure for support of evidence base policy making Creation of the structure for M&E of implemented tasks and activities Cooperation with civil society is crucial for the success of the process Without support of international community B&H would not be able to implement the process 16

17 17 EU INTEGRATION PROCESS - FROM MTDS TO NEW DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY (DS) and STRATEGY for SOCIAL INCLUSION (SIS) EU integration process includes several milestones: Stabilisation and Accession Process (SAP) Stabilisation and Accession Agreeement (SAA) Preaccession road starts European partnership The status of country candidate This process also includes preparation of development documents like B&HDS that will be a basis for NDP.

18 18 NEW B&H DS BASIC CONTEXT In accordance with obligatory directives of the Community, new Strategy as a basis for NDP should contain: National development goals; Instruments to be used for achieving these goals; Financial and institutional conditions necessary for implementation;

19 19 DS STRUCTURE In accordance with obligatory provisions and informal guidelines of EC, the new DS ( and future NDP) should includes the following: Analysis of situation (estimate of current social economical situation) SWOT analysis of situation Development strategy and goals Ex ante evaluation (estimation of feasibility and expected impacts of programmes before their implementation) Coherency and consistency of strategy Financial tables: budgetary and others programmes The Action Plan for implementation of measures must be connected to DS

20 20 ACTION PLAN An Action plan would include Brief description of operational programmes Action plan of activities Institutional structure of implementation A detailed DS and Action Plan could be a preliminary NDP

21 SOCIAL IINCLUSION STRATEGY (SIS), JOINT INCLUSION MEMORANDUM (JIM) AND NATIONAL ACTION PLAN (NAP) Considering that the new B&H DS will be more focused to economic development of the B&H, DEP will also prepare Social Inclusion Strategy. The reasons for preparation of SIS are: The number of excluded citizens in B&H is extremely high ( 50,32% ) but some groups are more jeopardize than others Momentarily the social policy in B&H is more focused to social protection than to social inclusion The main characteristics of social protection and spending for social protections are: lack of targeting (defining the groups of users), lack of adequacy and efficient centralization 21

22 SOCIAL IINCLUSION STRATEGY (SIS), JOINT INCLUSION MEMORANDUM (JIM) AND NATIONAL ACTION PLAN (NAP) -3 In 2007 B&H will start with preparation of the first SIS The purpose of SIS is to ensure better social inclusion and equal treatment of all B&H citizens as well as to fulfil precondition for EU integration. Beside sectoral and intersectoral orientation the SIS will be focused to specific target groups as well The main elements and strategy recommendations from B&H Strategy for disabled persons will be part of SIS The values from DS and SIS will be framework for JIM. The JIM has to prepare country for full legal participation in Open method of coordination of social inclusion. Under this process, every country has to prepare a National Action Plan for exclusion (NAP/inclusion) for every two years based on common goals.

23 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DS, SIS and MTDS, MTEF and OTHER DEVELOPMENT DOCUMENTS The new B&H DS and SIS should take account of existing: Previously adopted socio-economic development documents of the country (The priorities from MTDS that were not implemented) Four year or three year fiscal strategy & Public investment documents Sectoral strategies EU accession documents 24

24 CONCLUSION B&H is to embark on successor to MTDS This should be a natural development from the PRSP and MTDS process toward the EU models and new DS and SIS Take account of MTDS learning Reflect current needs of B&H including jeopardized groups (disabled persons, as well) Be coordianted through DEP 24