RECENT ECONOMIC AND SECTORAL DEVELOPMENTS. Growth and External Performance

Transcription

1 1 April 2016

2 RECENT ECONOMIC AND SECTORAL DEVELOPMENTS Growth and External Performance Economic recovery strengthened in 2015, following five years of slow economic growth. GDP grew at 3 percent in 2015, a significant improvement compared to the period. In contrast to previous years, growth was broad based and supported by external and domestic factors. Exports expanded at a robust rate and were the key driver of growth, despite the crisis in neighboring Greece and heightened geopolitical tensions. Domestic demand benefited from a spur in investment from the intensified implementation of European Union (EU)-funded projects, continuing labor market improvements, and low inflation. Consumption recovered in the second half of 2015, as declining unemployment, rising wages, and low inflation boosted real household incomes. Contribution to GDP Growth (percentage points) construction sector, and relatively static pensions and social benefits for the large share of poorer households that are out of the labor market. Nevertheless, unemployment is still high, especially long-term and youth unemployment, with significant regional variation. Inactivity among certain groups of the population is also high as a result of the deteriorating quality and rising inequality in the education system. In addition, a large number of people remain excluded from economic opportunities, such as the elderly, people living in rural areas, and the Roma, who do not participate actively in the generation of income and have limited access to key public sector services. Excluding a large number of people is damaging for growth in the case of Bulgaria, which is undergoing the steepest decline in population in the world. Accelerated economic activity and improved tax compliance strengthened Bulgaria s fiscal position. The fiscal deficit, estimated at 2.5 percent of GDP in 2015, was better than expected. Buoyant tax revenues and an accelerated absorption of EU funds supported the achievement of the fiscal outcome despite difficulties in implementing planned cuts in the wage bill in some sectors. Even with the improvement in the fiscal deficit, government debt is projected to have increased to 28.2 percent of GDP in 2015, though it remains the third-lowest debt level in the EU. General Government Balance (percent of GDP) Source: World Bank estimates based on data from the National Statistical Institute (NSI). Unemployment declined to a six-year low and employment picked up. Unemployment fell to 7.9 percent of the labor force in the fourth quarter of 2015 from 10.6 percent a year earlier. New jobs were created in those sectors, such as construction and industry, that were hardest hit during the 2009 crisis and that employ a relatively large share of low-skilled labor, boding well for poverty reduction. Estimated poverty declined modestly from 15.3 percent in 2014 to 14.7 percent in This reflects a mix of employment and wage gains among low-skilled workers, especially in the 2 Source: Eurostat. The external current account was again in surplus, supported by a further narrowing of the trade balance. Bulgaria exported more investment goods and raw materials, especially to

3 the EU, while import growth was modest, in line with low oil prices and concentrated in investment and consumer goods. On the basis of an improved external position, reduced exposures of Greekowned banks in Bulgaria, and one-off factors affecting intercompany lending, external private debt shrank by almost 14 percentage points of GDP in one year to 63.1 percent of GDP in The key challenge for Bulgaria is to accelerate convergence with the rest of the EU and deal with the negative consequences of its demographic change. Accelerating convergence would require substantial improvements in productivity and in labor force participation. According to a recent World Bank report, Bulgaria will need to raise its productivity to at least 4 percent per year to reach average EU income levels within a generation. Yet recent productivity growth has been disappointing, while improvements in labor force participation have been constrained by weak demand and skill shortages. At the same time, Bulgaria s labor supply is heading for the steepest decline in the world, and a large portion of the population remains at risk of poverty or social exclusion. Addressing the challenge of convergence would require stepping up reforms to strengthen the legal and institutional framework for growth and shared prosperity, boosting the skills of the labor force, and increasing the effectiveness of public spending. Reforms to strengthen the effectiveness of the judiciary, reduce the potential for corruption, and improve the regulation of the energy and financial sectors could strengthen the confidence of producers, investors, and consumers and reduce pressures on the government budget. It is also critical that the education system equip the shrinking labor force with adequate skills from early childhood to secondary and tertiary schools and provide life-long opportunities for training. Improving education outcomes would have a significant impact on poverty reduction and shared prosperity. Enhancing the effectiveness of public spending on pensions, health, and long-term care will be important for boosting Bulgaria s growth and ensuring that it is more inclusive and sustainable. Competition, Education, and Inclusion 3 The recent World Bank report, Productivity Growth in Bulgaria: Trends and Options, takes a broad look at improving the productivity landscape in the country. By boosting the productivity growth rate from its current 3 percent per annum to more than 5 percent, Bulgaria has the potential to achieve EU levels of prosperity with this generation. The report identifies five priority areas of engagement to help bolster stagnating productivity in Bulgaria: education, innovation, regulatory certainty, competition, and the judiciary. Another World Bank report, Mitigating the Economic Impact of an Aging Population: Options for Bulgaria, reveals that aging is likely to increase fiscal pressures and depress growth. The report argues that the higher the rate of economic growth, the easier it will be for Bulgaria to manage this challenge. Increasing labor force participation rates can mitigate the workforce decline but not stem it. Productivity growth is the key to mitigating the effects of demographic change, as it improves employment opportunities, raises household savings, boosts growth, and reduces future public debt. The continuation of the reform process in preuniversity education in Bulgaria has been supported by the World Bank s knowledge and advisory services, which have informed the development of new draft legislation on preschool and school education. Through just-in-time policy advice and on-demand analytical work, the World Bank has provided good practice models and options for improving school leadership and governance, promoting parental involvement in school decision making, strengthening the student assessment system, and developing models for measuring the contribution of schools to students educational outcomes (the value added of schools). At the request of the Government, the World Bank applied its newly developed diagnostic and policy assessment tool, Systems Approach for

4 Better Education Results (SABER), in the areas of teacher policies, workforce development, and early childhood development (ECD). Bulgaria needs to strengthen its institutional and strategic framework for workforce development based on forward-looking priorities to prepare the workforce for the economic opportunities of the future. For Bulgaria to strengthen its workforce development systems, the country needs to (i) delay the vocational track until after compulsory schooling, (ii) implement a regular assessment of the need for new skills, (iii) reconsider and reform the vocational education and training (VET) system through the optimization of schools and the modernization of the curriculum, and (iv) ensure closer cooperation with employers at all levels. These are the key findings of the SABER Workforce Development report, which diagnosed the country s workforce development policies and institutions and identified bottlenecks and opportunities for strengthening the quality and relevance of the national education and training systems. Teacher quality is the main school-based predictor of student achievement. Moreover, several consecutive years of outstanding teaching can offset the learning deficits of disadvantaged students. This is an underlying principle that shaped the framework for the assessment of Bulgaria s teacher policies, using the SABER Teachers diagnostic tool. The SABER Teachers country report for Bulgaria provided a comprehensive review of the country s programs and policies affecting teacher effectiveness and suggested a number of key directions for policy development, including (i) strengthening the system of incentives for attracting the best and most talented to teaching, (ii) improving the frameworks for monitoring teaching and learning, (iii) promoting more 4 effective matching of teacher skills with student needs, and (iv) ensuring that teachers receive adequate practical preparation. The analytical framework and some of the main findings and recommendations are reflected in the draft Strategy for Development of the Pedagogic Staff prepared by the Government. Bulgaria needs to improve coordination between institutions and develop a comprehensive multi-sector ECD policy framework that equally addresses education, health and nutrition, and social inclusion. This is one of the main findings of the recently completed SABER ECD assessment of Bulgaria s policies and programs for ECD. The report reveals that though the Government mandates the provision of compulsory and free preprimary preparatory education for children, Bulgarian municipalities lack the necessary fiscal resources to actually provide this education free of charge. Although the kindergarten enrollment rate in Bulgaria continues to increase, young children who need early childhood education most are largely excluded from the system, predominantly disadvantaged Roma children. The Government should carefully review this equity challenge, which could have far greater negative impacts on children later in life. ECD service delivery should be expanded to all young children to ensure they reach their full potential in life. In January 2016, the World Bank supported Social Inclusion Project, aiming at improved opportunities for children from marginalized backgrounds, including Roma children, was closed. Many vulnerable children reach school age and go to school without the necessary preparation. They are thus not on an equal footing with their peers and drop out early. The project has addressed this issue by helping children below the age of seven from poor and disadvantaged families, as well as children with disabilities, to enroll in kindergartens and receive integrated social, health, and childcare services. Project sustainability has been ensured by transferring the financing of the services to EU funding mechanisms before becoming the formal responsibility of local authorities through national and local budgets.

5 Roma represent a large ethnic minority in Bulgaria and are among the country s poorest citizens. As many as one in three Roma live in extreme poverty, earning less than US$4.30 a day, compared to just one in 20 among the rest of the population. The report, Gender Dimensions of Roma Inclusion: Perspectives from Four Roma Communities in Bulgaria, takes a closer look at gender as a key factor for inclusion and addresses the question of how gender affects the strategic life choices of Bulgarian Roma when it comes to education, employment, and marriage. The most recent World Bank report, released in January 2016, focuses on skills distribution among the working-age population in Bulgaria. The study, entitled Skills for Work in Bulgaria: The Relationship between Cognitive and Socioemotional Skills and Labor Market Outcomes, draws on data from the Bulgarian Longitudinal Inclusive Society Survey (BLISS) that were collected by the World Bank and the Open Society Institute Sofia in the spring of According to the report, there are three sets of skills that are fundamental for the labor market and society as a whole, namely cognitive skills, such as functional literacy and numeracy; socioemotional skills, such as self-discipline, perseverance, and the ability to work well with others; and technical skills, which include abilities associated with specific knowledge to carry out a particular occupation. The report draws a skills profile of working-age Bulgarians, demonstrating that higher-educated people have better cognitive and socioemotional skills. Men and women score similarly on cognitive skills, but women have higher relational skills. And while cognitive skills seem to be lower for older individuals (50 65 years), this group compensated by having higher relational skills compared to their younger compatriots. Infrastructure 5 To boost Bulgaria s competitiveness and foster economic growth, the Government has made it a priority to better absorb, manage, and implement EU funds, particularly for infrastructure. This has emerged as a pressing challenge, given that Bulgaria ranks 102nd out of 148 countries in the quality of overall infrastructure, according to the World Economic Forum s Global Competitiveness Report. A quick diagnostic assessment of the challenges in the Bulgarian power sector was prepared by the World Bank in response to a request by the Government in March The note was intended to help inform the Government s deliberations on how to improve public confidence and trust in the governance of the power sector, enhance the sector s financial standing, and provide adequate support to poor households so that they can afford environmentally sustainable and reliable electricity service. In summer 2015, the Government and Bulgarian Energy Holding (BEH) asked the World Bank to provide a sound analytical basis and options that the Ministry of Energy and BEH could consider in drafting a strategy for the financial recovery and liberalization of the power market. The advisory support will be implemented in two phases. In the first phase, in collaboration with Bulgarian Energy Holding, the Bank is undertaking an objective assessment of the sector s financial position to propose options for the liberalization of the power market. The second phase of the Reimbursable Advisory Services (RAS), in collaboration with the Ministry of Energy, is expected to focus on preparing a detailed roadmap for the liberalization of the market and exploring the means to make power services more affordable to vulnerable households.

6 Bulgaria has started to upgrade its roads infrastructure to EU standards and requirements during the past decade. However, the continued underfunding of roads has left the country with a large backlog of road maintenance and investment needs. The Government has pledged to improve the roads network across the country and restore troubled motorway programs by accelerating the absorption of EU funds and expanding cooperation with international financial institutions (IFIs), including the World Bank. In early 2015, the Bulgarian Government requested an extension of the advisory service agreement with the World Bank to provide support and strategic advice on the introduction of an Electronic System for the Provision of the European Electronic Toll Service (EETS). The advice provided informed the Government s decision to adopt a national roads strategy in summer Later, the World Bank, together with the Ministry of Regional Development and Public Works, organized a high-level Southeast European summit on road infrastructure development. The event brought together approximately 130 participants, including high-level officials, transport ministers, and state secretaries from Bulgaria, Romania, Albania, Kosovo, and Turkey. The Bulgarian Prime Minister called for better connectivity in the Balkans, with the establishment of an e-tolling system. The World Bank supported Municipal Infrastructure Development Project has assisted local governments across the country in investment planning for the water sector and in improving the reliability and quality of water provision in four municipalities. The project has supported the preparation of regional Master Plans for the water supply and sewerage systems covering the whole of Bulgaria except Sofia, and completion of the construction of two dams that was interrupted about 20 years ago, along with the rehabilitation of a third dam. Upon project completion, more than 130,000 Bulgarians in seven municipalities are expected to enjoy access to secure and reliable supplies of quality water. WORLD BANK GROUP PROGRAM IN BULGARIA Program to Date Bulgaria joined the World Bank in 1990 and since that time, the World Bank Group has been engaging with the Government on a wide range of reforms. The Bank-supported government reforms have: remedied past environmental damage; reduced the population s health risks; mitigated some of the costs of the transition and the crisis; supported a reduction in the fiscal costs of public debt, freeing resources to support spending in the social sectors; and improved the business climate. The World Bank s program in Bulgaria to date comprises 45 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) operations, with a total original commitment of roughly US$3 billion equivalent, consisting of 15 adjustment loans (US$1.73 billion), 23 investment projects (US$1.12 billion), one debt reduction loan (US$125 million), four World Bank managed Global Environment Facility (GEF) grants, two World Bank managed Prototype Carbon Fund (PCF) operations, and two Institutional Development Fund (IDF) grants. As of March 2016, the active portfolio of World Bank financed projects consisted of one operation with a net commitment of US$102.6 million equivalent. The International Financial Corporation (IFC) comprises an important element of the World Bank Group s strategy in Bulgaria. It focuses its private sector investments on climate change related infrastructure and industries, social sector private investments, and, selectively, agriculture. IFC s strategy in Bulgaria includes investing in lessdeveloped regions and municipalities, as well as in the sectors and projects where private financing remains limited. The climate change agenda continues to be a priority in both investment and advisory services, with a focus on helping develop successful public private partnerships. Following reforms in the social sectors (e.g., health and 6

7 education), IFC will reach out to private sector players with the aim of supporting sustainable projects and addressing strategic demographic issues. IFC s committed investment portfolio in Bulgaria as of March 1, 2016 was US$275.1 million. As of March 2016, IFC had 40 projects (completed and ongoing) in Bulgaria, with total commitments of over US$1.05 billion. IFC s single biggest investment in the country is in renewable energy in the form of a loan for the construction of the largest photovoltaic park in Bulgaria. The 60 megawatt peak (MWp) park helps the country to achieve its goal of 16 percent renewable energy output out of total power production by IFC is also involved in a number of sizable investments in various projects in the manufacturing, oil and gas, financial markets, and agriculture sectors. In addition, IFC provides advisory support in the area of corporate governance and risk management to systemically important local banks. The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) provided 10 guarantees between 1994 and 2006, for a total of US$232 million. The last MIGA guarantee was in infrastructure in 2006 for US$117.8 million. Building on Bulgaria s achievements, the World Bank Group has adapted its business model to support the country s goal of EU convergence. Its partnership with Bulgaria is based on a flexible framework that takes into account the country s priorities as an EU member state. Accelerating EU integration and the convergence of living standards are the Government s key medium-term goals. Bulgaria s National Reform Program maintains an overarching focus on boosting competitiveness to achieve the Europe 2020 Strategy goals of smart, sustainable, and inclusive growth. The National Reform Program has four key priorities: to boost growth, including through better infrastructure; to promote competitive youth; to create the best business environment in the EU; and to build higher confidence in state institutions. In addition, the Government has identified the efficient utilization of EU funds as an opportunity to finance public investments and accelerate EU integration. The Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) , supported Bulgaria in strengthening institutions and policies to achieve smart, sustainable, and inclusive growth. The World Bank program was tailored to Bulgaria s unique challenges within the European context and was firmly anchored in the National Reform Program to implement the Europe 2020 Strategy. It was weighted toward knowledge and advisory services in response to the Government s interest in forging a knowledge partnership. Following the new corporate commitment to accelerate progress toward the twin goals of ending extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity in a sustainable way, the World Bank Group has prepared a systematic and evidencebased assessment of the constraints facing Bulgaria as it attempts to achieve sustainable growth and converge with EU living standards. The Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Bulgaria, published in fall 2015, has informed the dialogue between the authorities and the World Bank Group on the new Country Partnership Framework (CPF), which will in turn define areas where the Bank can support the Government s efforts to reduce poverty and boost shared prosperity. The SCD concludes that the key to achieving faster, more inclusive, and more sustainable growth is strengthening institutions and policies. The study identifies three policy areas with the potential to transform the economy and achieve this objective: (i) strengthening the institutional and legal framework for good governance; (ii) boosting the skills and employability of all Bulgarians; and (iii) improving the effectiveness and efficiency of public spending. On September 1, 2015, the World Bank s Vice President for Europe and Central Asia, Cyril Muller, and Bulgaria s Deputy Prime Minister for EU Funds and Economic Policies, Tomislav Donchev, signed a new Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on 7

8 partnership and support in the implementation of European Structural and Investment Funds for the period. The new MoU opens the door for new RAS work in the areas of, but not limited to: (i) competitiveness, innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs); (ii) the environment; (iii) transport; (iv) energy; (v) agriculture and rural development; (vi) forestry; (vii) fisheries; (viii) the water sector; (ix) financial instruments; and (x) public administration. Four agreements have been signed under the new MoU so far: two agreements with Bulgarian Energy Holding for World Bank advisory support for Bulgaria Power Sector Financial Stabilization and Market Liberalization and for Power Sector Strategic Planning Support; an agreement with the Ministry of Finance for advisory support on the Setting Up a Fund-of-Funds for Managing Financial Instruments under EU Operational programs ; and a third Water RAS agreement for the development of a financing strategy, regulatory capacity building, and an increase in service efficiency in the water supply and sanitation sector. There are a number of new RAS activities in different stages of preparation in the areas of forestry, air quality, education, the judiciary, and good governance. Going Forward Following several high-level visits to the country, the World Bank Group has deepened its partnership with Bulgaria. Bulgaria and the World Bank are in the middle of developing a new CPF, which will define the World Bank Group s support over the next six years coinciding with the EU programing period. The World Bank s future cooperation with Bulgaria will be anchored around two priority areas, namely (i) investing in institutions for sustained growth; and (ii) investing in people for shared prosperity. The new CPF for Bulgaria will be presented to the Board in May It is expected to be reviewed every two years to reassess priorities and to add or remove specific objectives and activities in the light of developments and changes in those priorities. In the first two years, the World Bank will focus on supporting (i) the resilience and stability of the financial sector; (ii) energy sector reforms, including energy efficiency; and (iii) Bulgaria s EU agenda in accessing and absorbing EU Structural Funds. 8

9 Annex 1: Map of Bulgaria 9

10 Annex 2: Project summaries BULGARIA: MUNICIPAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT PROJECT Key Dates: Approved: November 24, 2009 Effective: April 30, 2010 Closing: December 31, 2017 Financing in million US Dollars*: Financier Financing Disbursed Undisbursed IBRD Loan Government of Bulgaria 29.6 Total Project Cost * As of March 9, 2016 Note: Disbursements may differ from financing due to exchange rate fluctuations at the time of disbursement. As a European Union (EU) member since January 1, 2007, the Bulgarian Government s priorities include the rehabilitation and construction of water supply and sewerage networks to improve service delivery and reduce health risks and to upgrade wastewater treatment systems in line with EU directives. Two of the eight priority water supply dams (Luda Yana and Plovdivtsi) are included in this project, and the third (Studena) is included for rehabilitation. The Project Development Objective: The project objectives are to: (a) improve bulk potable water provision in target areas, and (b) assist municipalities in improving investment-planning capacity. Key Expected Results and Current Achievements: There are three components to the project: (i) project implementation support to carry out the project and consultant services associated with project implementation; (ii) preparation of regional Master Plans for water supply and sewerage systems (ViK systems) to cover the territory of Bulgaria, except the territory of Sofia; and (iii) completion and rehabilitation of water treatment plants and water supply dams in Luda Yana and Plovdivtsi and the rehabilitation of the Studena dam and water treatment plant that is currently operational and supplies water to the town of Pernik. The regional Master Plans and the prioritization of short- to medium-term sector investment plans will lead to investments (funded by the EU and other sources) that will help Bulgaria meet EU directives in the water and wastewater sector and facilitate Bulgaria s economic and social integration with the EU. Thus, the project will significantly assist Bulgaria in meeting its commitments made under the acquis on the environment. Most of the contracts under the Project Implementation Support component had been awarded by the end of All 51 Master Plans have been completed and approved. About 20 percent of the project funds have been committed but disbursement is still low. The project was therefore restructured in summer The contract for the construction of the first dam Plovdivtsi and the associated water treatment plant was signed on December 9, The signing of contracts for Luda Yana and Studena Dam rehabilitation is pending the Government s decision on the financing of the two dams and the resulting implications for the project timeline and resources. Key International Partners: Close collaboration on sector dialogue is maintained with the European Commission (EC) and JASPERS (Joint Assistance to Support Projects in European Regions). 10