Jordan Country Brief 2011

Transcription

1 Jordan Country Brief 2011 CONTEXT The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is an upper middle income country with a population of 6 million and a per-capita GNI of US $4,390. Jordan s natural resources are potash and phosphate agricultural land is limited and water is considerably scarce. The population is urbanized at around 80 percent and is one of the youngest among lower-middle income countries, with 38 percent under the age of 14. The fertility rate (3.5 percent) is higher than the average in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and lower middle income countries. Jordan s economy is dominated by services, which account for over 70 percent of GDP and more than 75 percent of jobs. Jordanian policy makers ambition is using the demographic opportunity of a very young population to move toward a high-wage, knowledge-based economy. This transformation would require policies that encourage business creation and remove the distortions that presently detract from Jordan s comparative advantage: its relatively well-educated citizens; it also requires emphasizing the quality of education areas of priority in Jordan s National Agenda. Notwithstanding the difficult regional political environment and the lack of resources, Jordan has achieved above-average development outcomes within its income group in the last decade. Underpinned by its strong trade links with the region, Jordan s economy has shown strong performance since 2000 with annual real GDP growth averaging around 6 percent and per capita GDP more than doubling. Growth has been broad based, led by manufacturing, construction, real estate and services sectors. Inflation remained low (except for the surge in 2008 driven by international oil and food prices) and although the external deficit widened, sizable foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows enabled a steady and sizable increase in international reserves. This can be credited to sound development policies, recent substantial capital inflows and to one of the world's highest levels of unilateral transfers (workers remittances and public grants, amounting to about percent of GDP). However, Jordan is vulnerable to adverse external events, such as the fluctuation in commodity prices and the deterioration in external flows. Following the global economic crisis and regional political turmoil, Jordan faces several medium-term challenges to resume the economic performance observed in the previous decade. The most important of these are (1) the surge in global oil prices (which have a negative impact on trade deficit but a positive impact on transfers and capital account), (2) redirecting private capital flows (which were a major source of growth for Jordan in the recent past) towards tradable sectors with higher value added, (3) stimulate domestic investment as to compensate for potential fall in FDI as a result of regional turmoil, (4) and sustaining the fiscal consolidation efforts and stimulating domestic investment to enhance growth and employment creation. Reflecting these issues economic recovery is expected to be gradual in the upcoming three years with sectors driving growth being those that benefit from the capital inflows, foreign transfers and foreign demand such as financial services, community and personal services, wholesale and retail trade and manufacturing. Recovery has so far been slower than anticipated with growth in 2011 projected not to exceed 3 percent, up from 2.3 percent recorded in The current account deficit is projected to reach around 9 percent of GDP in The deficit is mainly driven by an increase in trade deficit as a result of the surge in international prices of commodities which translate into a rise in the imports bill. However with ongoing recovery in Gulf wealth and growth, it is also expected that inflows from services, income transfers and capital will improve over

2 time (risks of a decline in tourism receipt remains as the regional turmoil persists). The risk of external financing difficulties is mitigated by largely prudent policies supporting a measured external adjustment and adequate liquidity, Jordan s relative attractiveness to Arab investors, and significant donor support, including bilateral support from the US and Gulf states. Reserves in foreign currencies of the Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) remained at a comfortable level of US$11.5 billion (equivalent to 8 months of imports) The increase in the reserves of CBJ reflects some improvement in foreign inflows and the conversion from foreign currency denominated deposits to Jordanian Dinar denominated deposits, reflecting the interest rate differentials. Jordan has established a good track record in structural reforms. Reforms have progressed particularly well in the areas of education, privatization and expenditure/budget management over the recent years. In addition, the Government of Jordan (GoJ) has been working towards social protection system reforms, improving the conditions for greater public private partnership in infrastructure, and tax reforms including improvement of tax administration and management. In the context of the fiscal challenges currently faced, Jordan is re-engaging in public sector reforms with the aim of fostering a modern public administration able to provide efficient and quality public services while working on establishing an efficient human resources management and financial administration. Sustained progress in implementation of structural reforms and a supportive regional and external environment are critical for sustaining good economic performance in the period ahead. The GoJ s efforts to improve business environment gained depth in tackling the needs of private sector development in Jordan but remains at a slower compared to the region and other middle income countries. Starting 2009, GoJ engaged in reforms aiming at reducing the regulatory burden on firms and improving the working of the tax system. Measures taken focused on the reduction of entry costs, facilitation of the registration process, rationalization of entry and exit regulations, improvements in contract enforcement processes, and enhancement in electronic tax systems. However, reforms were conducted at a slower paste compared to other countries in the region due to decision making bottlenecks as a result of frequent changes in government. As a result, Jordan s overall investment climate ranking deteriorated to 111 th in Doing Business 2011 from 107 in In terms of human development, Jordan is above average with respect to middle-income countries. These positive results are based on consistent levels of spending more than 25 percent of GDP on human development (education, health, pensions, social safety nets). In addition, Jordan ensures a high level of gender parity in access to basic public services. In education, the Government launched in 2003 a comprehensive cutting-edge modernization program, aimed at overhauling the basic education system to align with the needs of a knowledge-based economy. School enrollment rates at each level of education are close to other countries at Jordan s income level. In terms of quality, Jordan ranks above international averages in science, but still below average in math. Population pressures and increasing income levels are placing demands for further expansion of education and health services. The remaining agenda aims to expand access to higher quality education and to match skills to productive jobs created in a competitive economy. Current Challenges Over the past 10 years, Jordan has been very active in reforming its economy and has been one of the best performers in the region. However, sound economic policies remain vital for reducing the vulnerability of the Kingdom to external shocks. Challenges include vulnerability to fluctuations in the international oil market, due to the country s high energy import dependency; high unemployment and

3 dependency on remittances from Gulf economies; and increasing pressure on natural resources, especially water. The greatest challenge (and also the largest opportunity) remains the necessity to create adequate conditions for increased private investment and improved competitiveness. This will help to deliver the high and sustainable growth needed to create employment and to reduce poverty. Staying the course with the implementation of the fiscal consolidation program may prove more challenging in the future but is key to preserve good economic performance. In the wake of the Arab spring, Jordan faces an important challenge to engage in a political reform process that enhances inclusiveness, accountability and freedom of speech. To respond to population demand, two committees were created in February First the Royal Committee for Constitutional Reforms (RCCR) in charge of constitutional amendments aimed at enhancing the power of the Judiciary, the Parliament and civil liberties thereby improving the balance of power between the King, the Parliament and the citizens. The RCCR submitted its reform proposals to the King on August 14. In total, 42 amendments to the Jordanian 1952 constitution have been proposed. Many of the amendments address demands long put forth by reform groups and the general public including the establishment of a constitutional court and an independent elections commission, the limitation of the government s ability to issue temporary laws and dissolve parliament without having to resign itself, and the reduction in State Security Court s jurisdiction. The second committee created was the National Dialogue Committee (NDC) tasked with preparing a new Municipal Law, a new Electoral draft law and a new Political Parties draft Law. These draft laws, who are to be submitted to Parliament in October 2011 and approved by end-2011, are expected to further strengthen the legislative body and provide for greater government accountability while paving the way for the formation of stronger political parties going forward. Using the demographic opportunity of a very young population to transform Jordan into a modern knowledge based economy is a core objective set by the King and endorsed by successive governments. In early 2010, the GoJ prepared an Executive Program which covers calendar years and tries to respond to the effect of the economic downturn of the Jordanian economy through focusing the following areas: (i) implementing a fiscal consolidation plan to reduce the budget deficit, (ii) conduct a monetary policy more conducive to growth and focusing on management of reserves, and more efficient regulations of the capital and financial markets, (iii) reforming the public sector and increasing accountability through tools for measuring government performance; (iv) improving the business and investment environment; (v) doing a better job at equipping Jordanians with skills needed for the labor market; (vi) enhancing economic growth through strategic infrastructure projects; (vii) increasing the base of middle class and protecting the poor; (viii) improving level and quality of service delivery, and (ix) stimulating political and civil participation. Implementing this strategic plan amidst tight fiscal constraints remains a big challenge for Jordan; a challenge that the donors community remains engaged to help the government tackle it. STRATEGY With the Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) ending in 2010, the World Bank Group has begun the preparation of the new Country Partnership Strategy (CPS ). The Bank Group will continue to pursue a selective and flexible approach in supporting Jordan s development agenda. In formulating the new CPS for Jordan the Bank paid particular attention to the need for continued strong analytical work and technical assistance. The CAS showed that high quality analytical and advisory work, especially in the area of economic diversification and sources of growth, made important contributions to the GoJ s development agenda and remain highly relevant.

4 The World Bank Group will support Jordan in its efforts to build growth resilience through a threepronged strategy. The overarching goal of the WBG s engagement is Enhancing Growth Resilience and Creating Jobs, which is supported by three pillars: (i) strengthen fiscal management and increase the capacity to cope with shocks; (ii) strengthening the foundation for growth and employment with a focus on competitiveness; and (iii) enhancing social protection mechanisms and pursuing local development. The strategy supports the Government s central objectives of growth generation, poverty reduction and social inclusion as expressed in the National Agenda and the Executive Development Plan. It strategy was developed with active participation by the Government and included consultation with a broad range of stakeholders in Jordan, including the private sector, civil society and think tanks. Jordan s active portfolio comprises an investment portfolio in the Transport, Urban Development, Education and Social Protection Sectors. In addition to the investment portfolio, Jordan has a substantial trust fund portfolio which mainly supports privatization and public-private partnerships, access and quality improvements in education, and energy and energy efficiency. Jordan is also supported through a comprehensive technical assistance program in key areas, including public expenditure management, social insurance, energy sector reform and procurement. Overall, the Urban Development Sector accounts for the highest share of the portfolio at 34 percent, followed by the Education and Transport Sectors, at 20 and 21 percent, respectively. As of February 28, 2011, Jordan s active portfolio was valued at US$338.1 million, of which 85 percent is financed by IBRD (eight projects, including one guarantee project; US$288.5 million) and 15 percent is financed by Bank-administered trust funds (11 projects, including one guarantee project, and one technical assistance project executed by the Bank; US$48.1 million). To date, the seven active investment projects have disbursed a total of 40 percent of total commitments of US$243.5 million, while the 11 Bank-administered trust funds have disbursed a total of 40 percent of total grants of US$48.1 million. Results Jordan made significant progress in many areas during the CAS period (FY06-10), in particular in education and public expenditure management. Through the Education Reform for the Knowledge Economy (ERfKE) program, the Bank supported the development and implementation of a student outcomes-based curriculum for all subjects and grades among others,; more than 2,000 schools to highspeed learning network were connected; 466 schools upgraded, and 40 new schools constructed. Net enrolment rates in the 8th grade increased considerably during the ERfKE I project period. Through a Development Emergency Policy Loan, reforms in the areas: (i) fiscal adjustment, (ii) financial sector policies, (iii) business environment and (iv) social insurance and social safety net were in particular supported and accelerated. Policy actions to reduce fiscal imbalance and to enhance macroeconomic stability had immediate effects which helped the government in 2010 to weather the negative fiscal effects of the global crisis. In social insurance and energy, the Bank s involvement has been deeper than anticipated as the GoJ requested that the Bank provide continued technical assistance to the implementation of reforms, particularly in light of the energy and food price shocks and the global financial and economic crisis. Targeted technical assistance supported a new Social Security law and a new unemployment insurance program which now includes coverage for all Social security Corporation members since November 2010 versus 0 percent beginning The coverage of targeted poor population by National Aid Fund (NAF) assistance was increased from 20 percent in 2006 to 40 percent in PARTNERS

5 The accomplishments during the CAS period and the fast-track implementation of the comprehensive DPL program reflected strong Government ownership with active engagement by Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, Ministry of Finance, Central Bank, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Ministry of Justice, Ministry of Social Development, and Social Security Corporation. The Bank and the Fund teams closely collaborated in the preparation of the DPL. The IBRD DPL team also collaborated with USAID and EU especially in the areas of business environment reforms and public financial management, and with IFC on the credit bureau law. The Bank Group regularly consults and coordinates with other partners and seeks to complement activities supported by them. The WBG is collaborating with USAID, JICA, CIDA and AfD in sector such as PFM, Public sector reform, Education, Energy, Tourism and Urban development.