Andi Lovano, Project Development Administrator~

Transcription

1 CITY COUNCIL NEW BUSINESS APRIL 3, 2017 SUBJECT: INITIATED BY: PREPARED BY: PROPOSED FOLLOW-UP TO THE "ANALYSIS OF THE LODGING MARKET" REPORT MAYOR LAUREN MEISTER Andi Lovano, Project Development Administrator~ STATEMENT ON THE SUBJECT: The City Council will consider taking specific actions to follow up on the "Analysis of the Lodging Market within the City of West Hollywood, California" report by PKF Consulting (CBRE Hotels), including an immediate moratorium, additional research and implementing a new policy to promote a healthy, diversified lodging market. RECOMMENDATIONS: 1) Place an immediate moratorium on any new hotel projects, freezing the review process for any hotel projects that have not yet been approved. 2) Direct the Revenue Management Division to conduct additional research as outlined in the Background/Analysis and return to City Council within the next four months with results and recommendations. 3) Consider implementing a new policy, based upon the updated research, which will best promote a healthy, diversified lodging market. 4) Authorize the Director of Finance & Technology Services to allocate $40,000 from unallocated General Fund Reserves in fiscal year to hire a consultant to perform the proposed update and analysis. BACKGROUND I ANALYSIS: On September 19, 2016, the City Council was asked to receive and file an "Analysis of the Lodging Market Within the City of West Hollywood," which was prepared in 2015 by PKF Consulting and CBRE Hotels. In addition, there was a Peer Review prepared by Atlas Hospitality Group (see Attachment 1 ). The total cost for the "Analysis of the Lodging Market Within the City of West Hollywood" report and Atlas Hospitality Group peer review was $40,000. Page 1of8 AGENDA ITEM 5.C.

2 The report looked at three scenarios: I. Existing supply plus Hotels currently under construction, II. Ill. Existing supply plus Hotels currently under construction and Entitled hotels, Existing supply plus Hotels currently under construction and Entitled hotels and Hotels under review. In Scenario Ill, which consisted of Existing supply plus Hotels under construction, Entitled hotels and Hotels under review, the PKF report projected market occupancy declining to 68% in 2020, with Revenue Per Available Room ("Rev PAR") at $243.08, or 14% and 12% below projections in the scenarios that did not include "Hotels under review" (Scenarios I and II, respectively). Atlas' peer review projected that as occupancy dips, hotels will compete more on rates, resulting in lower Average Daily Rate ("ADR") and therefore, lower transient occupancy taxes ("TOT"), with an approximate $1 million decrease in 2020 and Both PKF and Atlas Hospitality Group reported that under Scenario Ill, the additional competition "would cannibalize the market." Furthermore, they both observed that it would take West Hollywood lodgings until six more years - to return to stabilized 80% occupancy. According to PKF: "Scenario Ill illustrates that the 'Under review' hotels (8950 Sunset Boulevard, Robertson Lane project, and 7811 Santa Monica Boulevard) would potentially cannibalize demand from existing and other proposed hotels that preceded them on the first few years of opening; however, given the strength of the market, it is anticipated that the 'Under review' hotels could be absorbed within six years. The cannibalization can be attributed to the lack of additional demand drivers within West Hollywood, as well as similarity of product types that are being proposed." Importantly, it should be noted, that the PKF analysis did not include a number of newly proposed hotel projects (see Attachment 2) such as the Barney's Beanery mixed use project (-113 keys), the Robertson/Beverly mixed use project (-130 keys), or the 9034 Sunset mixed use project (-185 keys), nor did it consider two hotel projects currently under construction in Beverly Hills, just west of the West Hollywood border at Santa Monica Boulevard and Wilshire (-300 keys). The analysis also did not consider economic or political trends, such as the strength of the U.S. dollar, which impacts the value of U.S. products and services for foreign visitors, or potential policy changes of the new presidential administration, including a travel ban. These trends have potential impacts on tourism rates and the number of visitors to West Hollywood and the surrounding region, and need to be considered. Page2of8

3 Representatives from existing West Hollywood hotels have expressed concerns about the potential negative impacts of a Scenario Ill. Based on the numbers provided in the PKF study as well as the conclusions presented in the Atlas peer review, these concerns are warranted. It is recommended that the lodging market analysis study be supplemented with current industry data, as well as data on economic forecasts and trends, to not only look at the current and future marketplace, but also for background and context to help create policy as the City moves forward. One potential resource, suggested by representatives from some of West Hollywood's existing hotels, is Smith Travel Research, a company that provides global data benchmarking, analytics and marketplace insights for the hotel industry. Questions to be answered by additional research 1) What current economic trends should be considered in forecasting the health of the hotels currently existing, under construction and entitled, over the next 10 years? 2) What data exists that would distinguish hotels in distinct geographical areas within the City of West Hollywood, showing that they would not compete against each other? 3) What are the potential economic risks to the City's TOT and the existing, under construction and entitled hotels if the number of new hotels coming into the West Hollywood market is unrestrained? 4) What amenities could a new hotel offer in the West Hollywood market, e.g., a large ballroom I meeting space, that would enhance the viability of the market as a whole? 5) What types of projects, venues or infrastructure should the City promote to enhance the attractiveness of the West Hollywood lodging market? 6) What continuing impact is forecast from short-term rentals, e.g., AirBNB, under the current enforcement mechanisms? Staff presented the Analysis of the West Hollywood Lodging Market report as a "receive and file" but there needs to be a policy discussion, and direction for staff (e.g., Community Development Department and Economic Development Department) and the Planning Commission. Page 3 of 8

4 Other Considerations Benefits of a Diversified Economy: The City currently relies on Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) for 26% of its revenue, so, if the travel industry slows down, the City's total revenues will likely be impacted. During the 2008 recession, many industries were negatively impacted, but the travel industry took a big hit. CNBC reported 'Travel Accommodation' in the top ten among industries to be hit hardest by the recession. The City's TOT revenues decreased 3.4% from fiscal year to and 7.7% from fiscal year to TOT Revenues TOT Revenues TOT Revenues TOT Revenues TOT Revenues $12,791,327 $13,598,347 $13, 133,591 $12,124,316 $12,590, 134 A diversified economy helps to ensure that the City does not rely on one particular market sector or industry for its revenues. A diversified economy also leads to a healthy and flexible economy with small, medium and large businesses supporting each other - creating a cycle of growth for all. Environmental Considerations: According to the California Department of Water Resources, "The potential for wide swings in precipitation from one year to the next shows why we must be prepared for either flood or drought in any year. Although this year may be wet, dry conditions could return again next year may be only a wet outlier in an otherwise dry extended period. Unfortunately, the scientific ability to determine if next year will be wet or dry (known as sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting, or long-range weather forecasting) isn't yet capable of delivering reliable predictions." Considering California's history of drought, potential climate change impacts, and the uncertainty of future water supply through the Metropolitan Water District (MWD), water conservation and management strategies are increasingly essential. The West Hollywood Climate Action Plan (CAP) prioritizes water use reduction strategies as a means both to reduce water-related greenhouse gas emissions and to manage the limited resource (CAP, 3.36). One strategy to manage the use of this resource is to consider how a proposed project contributes to the City's total water usage. Water use of non-residential developments varies significantly by business type. Page 4 of 8

5 WATER USAGE CHART* r Non-Residential Land Use Auditorium/Community Center,-'- -- Bank r -- - Gymnasium. Health Spa Hotel, per room I, Medical Office 1 Office Building 1 Shopping Center Coffee House Restaurant - Full-Service l Retail Store School - Private t Supermarket (*from the City of Beverly Hills) ---t, Beverly Hills ; Estimated Water Usage, Gallons Per Day (gpd) ' ' 167 : Service Unit per seat ; per room per seat, ~: For instance, based on estimated water usage measurements provided by the City of Beverly Hills, a hotel uses an average 144 gallons per day (gpd) per room. For a 200- room hotel, this equates to 28,800 gpd per day or 10,512,000 gpd per year. In addition, high-end hotels, such as those under construction or proposed in West Hollywood, typically also have amenities such as a health spa, pool and restaurants. City influencers and decision-makers, ranging from the Community Development and Economic Development Departments to the Planning Commission and City Council, must consider environmental impacts on precious natural resources like water when making planning decisions and policies. Consistent with Previous Council Initiatives: This item complements an item brought forward by Councilmembers Meister and Duran and approved by Council in August 2015 to evaluate existing citywide policies and programs that support West Hollywood businesses and provide recommendations to maintain West Hollywood's thriving business climate. This item also augments an initiative introduced by Councilmembers D'Amico and Duran and approved by Council in November 2016: Study And Report On Sunset Boulevard Music, Entertainment, Dining, Hotel And Performance Content Production Opportunities Along With The Opportunities From The City's Zoning Code And Infrastructure. Page S of 8

6 CONFORMANCE WITH VISION 2020 AND THE GOALS OF THE WEST HOLLYWOOD GENERAL PLAN: This item is consistent with the Primary Strategic Goal(s) (PSG) and/or Ongoing Strategic Program(s) (OSP) of: OSP-3: Promote Economic Development while Maintaining Business Vitality & Diversity. OSP-1: Adaptability to Future Change. In addition, this item is compliant with the following goal(s) of the West Hollywood General Plan: ED-1: Maintain a diverse and resilient economy. ED-4: Monitor and evaluate economic conditions affecting the City's economic climate. ED-7: Enhance the City as a regional, national and international destination for the entertainment, nightlife, dining and retail industries that are key to West Hollywood's fiscal health. IRC-3: Reduce water use and ensure a long-term water supply. IRC-6: Reduce the City's contribution to global climate change and adapt to its effects. LU-1: Maintain an urban form and land use pattern that enhances quality of life and meets the community's vision for its future. EVALUATION PROCESSES: Tracking occupancy, TOT, ADR, and Rev PAR. ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY AND HEAL TH: N/A. COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT: It is recommended that City staff should engage representatives from the City's hotels throughout this process. Page 6 of 8

7 OFFICE OF PRIMARY RESPONSIBILITY: CITY MANAGER'S DEPARTMENT I FINANCE & TECHNOLOGY SERVICES DEPARTMENT I REVENUE MANAGEMENT DIVISION I COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT FISCAL IMPACT: This item authorizes the Director of Finance & Technology Services to allocate $40,000 from unallocated General Fund Reserves in fiscal year to hire a consultant to perform the proposed analysis. General Fund Supplemental Appropriations ~is.cal Year Date Description Amount Revenues TaXJ Licensing Process & fee Reduction Butlding & Safely Plan Check Fees Increase Mid year Budget Adjustment Total Appropriated Revenues Approved Supplemental Expenditures Capital Reserves Werie Budding Project Budget Increase 9/ Sunset OftSite Signage Study & Pilol Digital Sign Addt"I Costs 9/ Seismic Retrofit Program Expansion Social Services Program Expansion 11fl/2016 Sunset Blvd Opportumt1es Exploration Reallocation of Parking Meter Revenue - Weho Gives Back 1215/2016 Community Development Tempo1ary Planning Staff Outreach Consultant fof AIDS Monument Pro1ect Weho Park Phase 2 Budget lncreas.e Capital Reseives Werle Building Project Budget Increase Building & Safety Oi'V1sion Consulting SelVices 1/ Short Term Rental Marketplace Analysts Mid-year Budget AdJUstment Proposition A local Return Fund Exchange - Lakewood 3113/2017 AIDS Monument Budget ll"icrease & Weho Park Phase 2 Budget Increase for AIDS Monument Total Approved Supplemental Expenditures to Date Proposed Supplemental Expenditures 4/3l2017 Addrtional Hotel Market Analysis Total Proposed Supplemental Expenditures Approprlatlon1 Sur plusl(dehcio as Proposed Approved Drawdown of Reserves Capital ReseMs Werle Building ProJect Budgel Increase 12/5f2016 Outreach Consultant for AIDS Monument Project Weho Park Phase 2 Budget Increase 1123/2017 Werle Building Pro.iect Budget Increase (Proposed) Proposition A ReseMs - Lakewood Total Projected Surpfusl(Deficit) after Reserves s ( ) s s s 2,492,971 s s s s s 300,000 s s s s s s s 24,000 s s s s s 6,276,799 s s 40,000 s (3.823,828) s ( ) s (30,000) s ( ) s ( ) s (75.000} s (1, 151,049) Page 7 of8

8 ATTACHMENTS: 1. Peer Review prepared by Atlas Hospitality Group 2. New hotel projects "under review" I in pipeline Page 8 of 8