ABI CERVED OUTLOOK ON BAD LOANS TO BUSINESS
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1 ABI CERVED OUTLOOK ON BAD LOANS TO BUSINESS ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS OF THE RATES OF NEW BAD LOANS OWED BY NON-FINANCIAL COMPANIES, WITH BREAKDOWNS BY COMPANY SIZE
2 DEFAULT RATES BY BUSINESS SIZE: THE ABI-CERVED PROJECT Cerved and the Italian Banking Association (ABI) run a joint project to estimate and forecast default rates by business size category, in order to help broaden the set of information available to analysts and operators in the field. For the purpose of this research project, Cerved and ABI have classified non-financial companies into four size categories, using the same criteria specified by the European Commission: The project s goal is to estimate new bad loan rates, dating back to 1990, for each macro-sector of the economy, each broad geographical area of the country, and each business size category, resulting in 64 data clusters; the subsequent goal is to analyse the resulting rate trends, in order to develop forecasts and simulations. Default rate estimates are obtained by using Cerved s CeBi-Score4 as a concise indicator of a business s financial risk, then transforming these scores into individual risk indicators or expected individual default rates (EIDR) and re-proportioning these EIDRs based on the historical data series published by the Bank of Italy. 2
3 FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE INCEPTION OF THE CRISIS, THE STOCK OF BAD LOANS SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN 2017 The stock of bad loans of Italian banks ( BN) NET BAD LOANS HOUSEHOLDS AND OTHERS NON FINANCIAL COMPANIES Source: Abi-Cerved illustration of Bank of Italy data 3
4 NEW NON PERFORMING LOANS RETURNED CLOSE TO PRE-CRISIS LEVELS IN 2017 New non performing loan rates (new non-performing loan amounts as % of all performing loans) NEW NPL RATE HOUSEHOLDS NON-FINANCIAL COMPANIES Source: Abi-Cerved illustration of Bank of Italy data 4
5 NEW BAD LOAN RATES AMONG NON-FINANCIAL COMPANIES FELL IN 2017 Non financial companies: new bad loans (Annual influx of bad loans, adjusted and expressed as a percentage of total loans) BY AMOUNT BY NUMBER Source: Abi-Cerved illustration of Bank of Italy data 5
6 ABI-CERVED MACROECONOMIC SCENARIO GDP (% Y/Y) GENERAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING (% Y/Y) HOUSEHOLD SPENDING (% Y/Y) GROSS INVESTMENT SPENDING (% V/V) TOTAL EXPORTS (% Y/Y) TOTAL IMPORTS (% Y/Y) CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION (% Y/Y) PUBLIC NET BORROWING (% OF GDP) PUBLIC DEBT (% OF GDP) EURIBOR 3M (%) BTP RATE (%) COST OF DEBT IN EURO (%)
7 THE DECREASE IN NEW BAD LOANS RATE WILL CONTINUE IN 2018 AND 2019 ACROSS ALL SIZE CATEGORIES Forecast for new bad loans, by company size (Annual influx of bad loans, adjusted and expressed as a percentage of total loans) MICRO SMALL MEDIUM LARGE ALL COMPANIES Source: Abi Cerved estimates and forecasts 7
8 NEW BAD LOANS RATE WILL DECREASE ALSO IN ALL ECONOMIC SECTORS, BUT LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH IN CONSTRUCTION Forecast for new bad loans, by macro-sector (Annual influx of bad loans, adjusted and expressed as a percentage of total loans) AGRICOLTURE INDUSTRY CONSTRUCTION SERVICES Source: Abi Cerved estimates and forecasts 8
9 IN THE NORTH PRE-CRISIS LEVELS WILL BE REGAINED IN 2019 Forecast for new bad loans, by geographical area (Annual influx of bad loans, adjusted and expressed as a percentage of total loans) NORTH-WEST NORTH-EAST CENTRE SOUTH & ISLANDS Source: Abi Cerved estimates and forecasts 9
10 2018 Cerved Group Spa All rights reserved-reproduction prohibited
ABI-CERVED OUTLOOK ON BAD LOANS TO BUSINESSES
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