Banco BPI Mortgage credit

Transcription

1 Banco BPI Mortgage credit INVESTOR & ANALYST CONFERENCE May Centro Cultural de Belém Lisboa

2 I. Mortgage market in Portugal Recent evolution II. Mortgage lending at BPI Past and Present Outlook 1

3 Evolution of the housing market in Portugal ,0% 4,0% 3,0% % 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Licenses for new houses (est.) Nº of new houses finished GDP 2006 (est) ,0% 1,0% 0,0% -1,0% -2,0% The market of new houses in Portugal is at its lowest level over the last 10 years. Annual price changes are now close to zero. Forecasted GDP growth will help market recovery. Average house prices Inflation 2 Source: INE; BPI Analysis of values from Confidencial Imobiliário ; Values of 2006 annualized based on Jan-Mar data.

4 Evolution of mortgage credit in Portugal Outstanding Credit to Individuals in Portugal- Million Euros (includes securitized loans) Total Mortgage credit Consumer credit + Other The stock of mortgage loans continues to grow steadily. (+13,3% in 2003, 10,4% in 2004 and 12,2% in 2005) 0 Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun 2005 Feb Jun Source: Bank of Portugal; BPI Analysis 3

5 Evolution of mortgage credit in Portugal (Cont.) Annual gross production in Portugal (Million ) Average annual growth since ,3% (estim.) This evolution includes the contribution from loans transferred between banks. Source: BPI analysis based on information from other Banks. 4

6 I. Mortgage market in Portugal recent evolution II. Mortgage lending at BPI Past and Present Outlook 5

7 Evolution of mortgage credit at BPI Market shares BPI s market share - Outstanding (Market values include securitized credit) 6,1% 7,2% 8,4% 9,2% 9,9% 9,9% 9,5% ision criteria were revised in 2003; Source: Bank of Portugal; BPI Analysis BPI s market share Production In the last 4 years, BPI has only launched significant marketing campaigns in Mar 2004, Jun 2005 and Apr 2006; 7,2% 11,4% 13,1% 12,3% 12,8% 10,2% 7,7% 8,9% Market share (production) in Mar 06 was 9,5% Jan-Mar Source: BPI estimates based on information from other Banks.

8 Monthly evolution of BPI s market share BPI s market share Production 16% 14% 12% 10% 10,2% 11,2% 12,6% 9,3% 8,5% 9,5% 8% 6% 6,8% 4% 2% 0% Dez-01 Dez-02 Dez-03 Dez-04 Dez-05 BPI s market share reached its lowest (6,8%) in July 2005, but now is growing rapidly. 7 Source: BPI estimates based on information from other Banks.

9 Credit quality in BPI s new loans Average LTV in new production - BPI vs. market (data from other Banks is not available) 59% 57,3% 57,4% 60,7% 70,9% 72% Gap: -11,3 bp BPI new loans (2003) BPI new loans (2004) BPI new loans (2005) BPI new loans (Jan-Apr 06) BCP new loans (2004) BCP new loans (2º T 04) BPI has growth potential if average LTV moves up to market levels. Source of Millennium BCP data: Financial reports. More recent data is not available 8

10 Credit quality in BPI s current loans Credit in arrears (+ 30d) over total outstanding Feb ,53% 1,26% - 22% For imparity, BPI uses a loss of 14,3% on loans that reach the end of legal action, which is almost twice as measured, so far. Current effective losses + change of imparity in the last 12 months account for 0,18% over total average outstanding in the last 12 months. Market BPI On Feb 2006, credit in arrears ratio at BPI was 22% lower than the market. Credit risk is under control. 9 Source: Bank of Portugal.

11 BPI s current pricing Base spreads: Initial loan amount ( ) LTV < >= > 80% e <= 100% 1,5% 1,3% 1,1% > 60% e <= 80% 1,2% 1,0% 0,8% <= 60% 1,0% 0,8% 0,7% 7 conditions that can generate deductions to the applicable spread: - Interest rate rounding to the upper 1/8 p.p.; - Level of income and expenses; - Professional situation + employing company; - Insurance (associated to the mortgage credit) bought through BPI; - Asset level at BPI - Regular payments through BPI The new pricing allows BPI to be more competitive and increase cross-selling. Expected average spread of the current pricing structure is 0,76%. Spreads can reach a minimum of: 10

12 Detail on intermediary channel Growth in BPI s production Jan-Apr 06 vs Jan-Apr 05 70% Weight of the intermediary s channel in overall production: 65% 65% 87,0% 60% 50% 40% 37% 50% 23,0% 30% 20% 16,1% 21,1% 10% Total Real estate agents 0% BPI BPI Italy Germany UK NL At BPI, the intermediary channel is now segmented: - Bigger networks of real estate agents have centralized support; - Smaller agents receive direct support from branches. Compared to other countries, BPI can still grow strongly in this channel. 11

13 BPI s current situation After having introduced more demanding decision criteria in 2003, BPI has kept bringing innovative products into the market: Mortgage credit with growing instalments (innovative product at the time of launch); Mortgage credit insurance for credits of high LTV values; Mortgage credit for non-resident foreigners (the most competitive product in the market at the time of launch); BPI continues to be strong in the mortgage market: Biggest network of specialists that deal exclusively with mortgage in branches (64 mortgage corners) and mortgage shops (19); Biggest site on the internet BPI Imobiliário -, with more than properties; Best pricing (since Apr 2006); New structure and more aggressive approach in intermediary channel. 12 These developments have been helping BPI gain good quality credits and increase BPI s market share. - Production of Jan-Apr 06 vs Jan-Apr 05 : + 23,0%; - Market share, from 2 nd Q 05 to 1 st Q 06: increase from 7,3% to 8,9%

14 I. Mortgage market in Portugal recent evolution II. Mortgage lending at BPI Past and Present Outlook 13

15 Outlook up to 2010 Average spreads of BPI s outstanding (Values included in the Business Plan presented in the 10th of April) 1,14% 1,0% 0,9% 0,8% 0,7% 0,6% Average spreads of BPI s production 1,1% 1,1% 1,0% 1,0% 0,9% 0,7% 0,6% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% Up to 2010, spreads will decrease more rapidly than in recent years. Spreads used in BPI s Business Plan assume a drop in spreads of new loans down to an average of 0,5% in

16 Outlook up to 2010 (Cont.) Evolution of market s outstanding (Values included in the Business Plan presented in the 10th of April) (M ) CAGR 11,4% CAGR 13,3% Factors supporting the growth up to 2010: - Higher LTV s and higher average loan values; - More widespread use of large loan terms and products with residual values or with growing instalments; - High level of competition, which also drives the introduction of innovative products. 15 Source: Bank of Portugal; Projections: BPI

17 Outlook up to 2010 (Cont.) Up to 2010, BPI expects to grow based on: its very competitive offer; further development of the intermediaries channel; the bigger network (+ 26 new branches by the end of 2005 and additional 40, opened in 2006); the growing opportunities related to higher LTV s the conditions generated by BPI s control over credit risk. In BPI s Business Plan, the evolution of outstanding has implicit: a growth of the average outstanding per Client in line with 2005; an average annual net increase of Clients with mortgage credit, also in line with 2005; a growth in the penetration rate (Clients with mortgage credit over total Clients) of 9,1% in 2005 to 10,5% in 2010 which compares to the potential of 12,3% in terms of BPI s PIC. 16

18 Outlook up to 2010 (Cont.) BPI s outstanding (Values included in the Business Plan presented in the 10th of April) (M ) ,0% ,4% BPI s market share ,6 % 9,5 % 8,3 % BPI s Business Plan has implicit a market share drop down to 8,3%, by the end of The business strategy underway gives room to recover, up to a 10% market share. This would mean reaching a M outstanding in 2010.

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