Economic Outlook Professor Paul A. Spindt Tulane University
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1 Economic Outlook Professor Paul A. Spindt Tulane University
2 The Great Recession ends, but 10.0 Real GDP growth Where do we go from here?
3 The Great Fear remains: Is the US condemned to a lost decade? 12 GDP growth: Japan The lost decade (or 2, or?)
4 Can it happen here? No The US economy is more Diverse Flexible Innovative We went to school on Japan Maybe Unfavorable demographics Policy paralysis Foreign creditors
5 Three questions Why has unemployment remained so high? Are the causes structural or cyclical? Household net worth has been decimated. Will it languish or recover? Financial markets caused all this. How can we be sure they won t do it again?
6 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 It doesn t feel like the recession is over 12 Unemployment Rate
7 Jan Ma Sep Jan Ma Sep Jan Ma Sep Jan Ma Sep Jan Ma Sep Jan Ma Sep Jan Ma Sep Jan Ma Sep Jan Ma Sep Jan Ma Sep Jan Ma Sep A long time since the last paycheck 40 Unemployment and Average Weeks Unemployed
8 Even by historical standards
9 Is the problem structural? Structural unemployment Caused by mismatches between jobless workers and available jobs Dying and rising industries require different skills Frictions (e.g. cost of overcoming geographic mismatches) Implies uneven labor market (high demand in some places and low demand in others)
10 Filling job openings
11 Is the problem cyclical? Cyclical unemployment Caused by decreased demand Results in across the board weakness in the labor market Openings are few and quickly filled Substantial evidence of anemic demand Decline in house prices from 2006 Credit crisis in 2007 further depressed asset values Households struggle to repair damaged balance sheets by saving more and consuming less
12 2001q3 2001q4 2002q1 2002q2 2002q3 2002q4 2003q1 2003q2 2003q3 2003q4 2004q1 2004q2 2004q3 2004q4 2005q1 2005q2 2005q3 2005q4 2006q1 2006q2 2006q3 2006q4 2007q1 2007q2 2007q3 2007q4 2008q1 2008q2 2008q3 2008q4 2009q1 2009q2 2009q3 2009q4 2010q1 2010q2 They weren t supposed to fall 200 Case-Schiller US Home Price Index
13 Feeling poor Household Net Worth q4 2005q4 2006q4 2007q4 2008q4 2009q1 2009q2 2009q3 2009q4 2010q1 2010q2
14 And not feeling good about it
15 2000Q1 2000Q3 2001Q1 2001Q3 2002Q1 2002Q3 2003Q1 2003Q3 2004Q1 2004Q3 2005Q1 2005Q3 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 Restoration efforts Household Saving
16 2000Q1 2000Q2 2000Q3 2000Q4 2001Q1 2001Q2 2001Q3 2001Q4 2002Q1 2002Q2 2002Q3 2002Q4 2003Q1 2003Q2 2003Q3 2003Q4 2004Q1 2004Q2 2004Q3 2004Q4 2005Q1 2005Q2 2005Q3 2005Q4 2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 Deleveraging 0.18 Debt Service as Percent of Disposable Income: US Homeowers
17 When will demand recover? The Great Recession was so severe because households cut back so dramatically on spending. Effort to repair damaged balance sheets. Progress has been made: HH net worth is now about 5x personal disposable income (up from about 4.5x). Assuming a target of 5.5x, we are about half-way there. Assuming house (and other asset) prices stabilize, household spending could recover within 3 4 years
18 A damaged financial sector Collapse of the shadow banking system in mid-2007 Extreme leverage The sub-prime mess Collateral cascade Bear Sterns; Lehman Concern was not over quality of commercial borrowers, but over health of financial borrowers. It was a crisis in confidence among financial institutions
19 1/2/07 3/2/07 5/2/07 7/2/07 9/2/07 11/2/07 1/2/08 3/2/08 5/2/08 7/2/08 9/2/08 11/2/08 1/2/09 3/2/09 5/2/09 7/2/09 9/2/09 11/2/09 1/2/10 3/2/10 5/2/10 7/2/10 9/2/10 Interbank Credit Crisis mo LIBOR 3-mo Tbill TED Spread 2 1 0
20 Consequences Credit crisis caused massive deleveraging of the financial system. Demand for good collateral and margin calls Rapid liquidation of illiquid assets Collapse of structured products markets
21 Collateral damage
22 Unhealthy banking system Severe impairment of bank asset quality About 300 banks have failed since 2008q1, mostly by reason of insolvency. Foreclosure hangover
23
24 Policy responses Immediate reactions TARP and system rescue Monetary policy Zero interest rates QE Fiscal stimulus Huge public deficits
25 Money, money, money
26 Prospective policy Near-term problem is to restore growth Now is not the time to tighten Best solution would be to extend the Bush tax cuts for all taxpayers Tax credits for hiring firms QEII Longer-term problem is to restore fiscal responsibility Plan to achieve budget balance Sensible reform of financial sector
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