4Q 2018 And Full Year Earnings Review. January 23, 2019 (Preliminary Results)
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1 4Q 2018 And Full Year Earnings Review January 23, 2019 (Preliminary Results)
2 Key Takeaways FY 2018 EBT of $2.6 billion the best result in 8 years Loss metrics reflect healthy consumer credit conditions Continued strong auction performance Funding plan well positioned, diversified across platforms and markets Managed leverage maintained within target range of 8:1 to 9:1 Consistent originations, servicing, and collections 2
3 Key Metrics FOURTH QUARTER FULL YEAR H / (L) H / (L) Net Receivables (Bils) $ 143 $ % $ 143 $ % Managed Receivables* (Bils) $ 151 $ % $ 151 $ % Loss-to-Receivables** (LTR) 60 bps 55 bps (5) bps 53 bps 46 bps (7) bps Auction Values*** $ 17,505 $ 17,865 2 % $ 17,430 $ 18,055 4 % Earnings Before Taxes (EBT) (Mils) $ 610 $ 663 $ 53 $ 2,310 $ 2,627 $ 317 ROE (Pct) 50 % 14 % (36) ppt 22 % 14 % (8) ppts Other Balance Sheet Metrics Debt (Bils) $ 138 $ % Liquidity (Bils) $ 30 $ 27 (7) % Financial Statement Leverage (to 1) Managed Leverage* (to 1) Strong 4Q and best FY EBT in 8 years U.S. consumer credit metrics healthy with improved LTR Balance sheet and liquidity remain strong; managed leverage within target range of 8:1 to 9:1 * See Appendix for reconciliation to GAAP and definitions ** U.S. retail and lease *** U.S. 36-month off-lease fourth quarter auction values at 4Q 2018 mix, full year auction values at FY 2018 mix 3
4 4Q 2018 EBT YoY Bridge (Mils) Supplemental Depreciation $129 Residual Losses (38) 4Q EBT at $663M, up $53M YoY driven by favorable lease residual performance and volume and mix Volume / Financing Credit Lease 4Q 2017 Mix Margin Loss Residual Exchange Other 4Q
5 FY 2018 EBT YoY Bridge (Mils) Supplemental Depreciation $193 Residual Losses 127 DMV $(175) Operating Costs & Other (69) FY EBT at $2.6B, up $317M YoY; reflects favorable lease residual performance, driven by higher auction values, and volume and mix Other primarily reflects unfavorable derivatives market valuation Volume / Financing Credit Lease 2017 Mix Margin Loss Residual Exchange Other
6 EBT By Segment 2018 H / (L) H / (L) 2017 Results (Mils) Americas segment $ 589 $ 102 $ 2,208 $ 413 Europe segment 88 (18) Asia Pacific segment Total segments $ 693 $ 84 $ 2,701 $ 492 Unallocated other* (30) (31) (74) (175) Earnings before taxes $ 663 $ 53 $ 2,627 $ 317 (Provision for) / Benefit from income taxes (137) (1,341) (403) (1,100) Net income $ 526 $ (1,288) $ 2,224 $ (783) 4Q FY Contract placement volumes (000) 485 (91) 2,071 (78) * See Appendix for definitions 6
7 Americas Financing Shares And Contract Placement Volume 4Q FY Financing Shares (%) Retail Installment and Lease Share of Ford Retail Sales (excl. Fleet) United States 58 % 55 % 55 % 58 % Canada Wholesale Share United States 75 % 76 % 76 % 76 % Canada Contract Placement Volume - New and Used Retail / Lease (000) United States ,119 1,151 Canada Mexico Total Americas Segment ,343 1,352 7
8 Europe Financing Shares And Contract Placement Volume 4Q FY Financing Shares (incl. Fleet) (%) Retail Installment and Lease Share of Total Ford Sales U.K. 38 % 38 % 35 % 37 % Germany Total Europe Segment Wholesale Share U.K. 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % Germany Total Europe Segment Contract Placement Volume - New and Used Retail / Lease (000) U.K Germany All Other Total Europe Segment
9 Asia Pacific Financing Shares And Contract Placement Volume 4Q FY Financing Shares (incl. Fleet) (%) Retail Installment Share of Total Ford Sales China 29 % 37 % 28 % 35 % India Wholesale Share China 60 % 68 % 57 % 63 % India Contract Placement Volume - New and Used Retail (000) China India Total Asia Pacific Segment
10 4Q 2018 Net Receivables Mix (Bils) Net Investment in Operating Leases Consumer Financing Non-Consumer Financing $146.3 $27.4 $75.8 $115.6 $27.0 4Q 2018 H/(L) 2017 (Pct.) (Ppts.) SUV / CUV 56 1 Truck 27 4 Car 17 (5) Operating lease portfolio was 19% of total net receivables U.S. and Canada represent 99% of operating lease portfolio $56.5 $11.5 $43.1 $32.1 $25.5 $15.5 $9.6 $5.2 Total Americas Europe Asia Pacific 10
11 U.S. Origination Metrics Higher Risk Portfolio Mix Average Placement FICO Retail and Lease FICO and Higher Risk Mix (Pct) % 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 Retail 84 Months Mix Average Retail Placement Term Retail Contract Terms Disciplined and consistent underwriting practices Portfolio quality evidenced by FICO scores and steady risk mix Extended-term contracts relatively small part of our business 66 mo 65 mo 65 mo 65 mo 66 mo 65 mo 2% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 11
12 U.S. Retail And Lease Credit Loss Drivers Over-60-Day Delinquencies (excl. Bankruptcies) Repossessions (000) and Repo. Rate (Pct) Repo. Rate Repossessions 0.15% 0.13% 0.12% 0.10% 0.12% 0.12% 1.12% 1.16% 1.22% % % 1.07% 9 9 Delinquencies and repossessions remained low Severity about flat YoY 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 Severity (000) 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 Charge-Offs (Mils) and LTR Ratio (Pct) LTR Ratio Charge-Offs Strong loss metrics reflect healthy consumer credit conditions $9.8 $10.2 $10.3 $10.0 $9.5 $ % 0.60% $95 $ % $ % $ % $ % $106 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 12
13 Worldwide Credit Loss Metrics LTR Ratio Charge-Offs Charge-Offs (Mils) and LTR Ratio (Pct) 0.33% 0.39% 0.31% 0.25% 0.40% 0.40% $118 $143 $118 $97 $152 $156 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 Credit Loss Reserve (Mils) and Reserve as a Pct of EOP Managed Receivables (Pct) Reserve as a Pct of EOP Managed Receivables Credit Loss Reserve 0.44% 0.44% 0.43% 0.44% 0.44% 0.43% YoY increase in charge-offs reflects a non-consumer credit loss recognized in 4Q 2018 outside of the U.S. Credit loss reserve based on historical losses, portfolio quality, and receivables level $644 $668 $671 $659 $663 $667 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 13
14 U.S. Lease Origination Metrics 24-Month 36-Month Month / Other Lease Placement Volume (000) Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 Ford Credit Industry* Lease Share of Retail Sales (Pct) 4Q lease share flat sequentially and below industry reflecting Ford sales mix 28% 28% 31% 30% 29% 29% 23% 23% 19% 21% 21% 17% 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 * Source: J.D. Power PIN 14
15 U.S. Lease Residual Performance Return Rates Return Volume Lease Return Volume (000) and Return Rates (Pct) 79% 78% 79% 78% 77% 78% Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 24-Month 36-Month $22,365 $22,625 $22,360 Off-Lease Auction Values (at 4Q18 Mix) $22,990 $23,695 $22,425 Healthy used car market supporting lease residual and credit loss performance Expect 2019 FY average auction values to be about 4% lower YoY at constant mix $17,830 $17,505 $17,440 $18,295 $18,785 $17,865 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 15
16 Funding Structure Managed Receivables* (Bils) Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Term Debt (incl. Bank Borrowings) $ 66 $ 75 $ 70 Term Asset-Backed Securities Commercial Paper Ford Interest Advantage / Deposits Other Equity Adjustments For Cash (11) (12) (10) Total Managed Receivables $ 137 $ 151 $ 155 Funding is diversified across platforms and markets Well capitalized with a strong balance sheet and ample liquidity Securitized Funding as Pct of Managed Receivables 37% 35% 39% * See Appendix for definitions and reconciliation to GAAP 16
17 Public Term Funding Plan* (Bils) Unsecured -- Currency of issuance (USD Equivalent) Actual Actual Actual 2019 Forecast USD $ 9 $ 10 $ 6 $ 9-12 CAD EUR / GBP Other Total unsecured $ 14 $ 16 $ 13 $ Securitizations $ 13 $ 15 $ 14 $ Total public $ 28 $ 32 $ 27 $ * Numbers may not sum due to rounding; see Appendix for definitions 17
18 Cautionary Note On Forward-Looking Statements Statements included or incorporated by reference herein may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of Forward-looking statements are based on expectations, forecasts, and assumptions by our management and involve a number of risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those stated, including, without limitation: Ford s long-term competitiveness depends on the successful execution of fitness actions; Industry sales volume, particularly in the United States, Europe, or China, could decline if there is a financial crisis, recession, or significant geopolitical event; Ford s new and existing products and mobility services are subject to market acceptance; Ford s results are dependent on sales of larger, more profitable vehicles, particularly in the United States; Ford may face increased price competition resulting from industry excess capacity, currency fluctuations, or other factors; Fluctuations in commodity prices, foreign currency exchange rates, and interest rates can have a significant effect on results; With a global footprint, Ford s results could be adversely affected by economic, geopolitical, protectionist trade policies, or other events; Ford s production, as well as Ford s suppliers production, could be disrupted by labor disputes, natural or man- made disasters, financial distress, production difficulties, or other factors; Ford s ability to maintain a competitive cost structure could be affected by labor or other constraints; Pension and other postretirement liabilities could adversely affect Ford s liquidity and financial condition; Economic and demographic experience for pension and other postretirement benefit plans (e.g., discount rates or investment returns) could be worse than Ford has assumed; Ford s vehicles could be affected by defects that result in delays in new model launches, recall campaigns, or increased warranty costs; Safety, emissions, fuel economy, and other regulations affecting Ford may become more stringent; Ford could experience unusual or significant litigation, governmental investigations, or adverse publicity arising out of alleged defects in products, perceived environmental impacts, or otherwise; Ford s receipt of government incentives could be subject to reduction, termination, or clawback; Operational systems, security systems, and vehicles could be affected by cyber incidents; Ford Credit s access to debt, securitization, or derivative markets around the world at competitive rates or in sufficient amounts could be affected by credit rating downgrades, market volatility, market disruption, regulatory requirements, or other factors; Ford Credit could experience higher-than-expected credit losses, lower-than-anticipated residual values, or higher-than-expected return volumes for leased vehicles; Ford Credit could face increased competition from banks, financial institutions, or other third parties seeking to increase their share of financing Ford vehicles; and Ford Credit could be subject to new or increased credit regulations, consumer or data protection regulations, or other regulations. We cannot be certain that any expectation, forecast, or assumption made in preparing forward-looking statements will prove accurate, or that any projection will be realized. It is to be expected that there may be differences between projected and actual results. Our forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of their initial issuance, and we do not undertake any obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. For additional discussion, see Item 1A. Risk Factors in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2017, as updated by our subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and Current Reports on Form 8-K. 18
19 Appendix Americas Financing Shares And Contract Placement Volume Europe Financing Shares And Contract Placement Volume Asia Pacific Financing Shares And Contract Placement Volume U.S. Origination Metrics U.S. Retail And Lease Credit Loss Drivers Worldwide Credit Loss Metrics U.S. Lease Origination Metrics U.S. Lease Residual Performance Total Net Receivables Reconciliation to Managed Receivables Financial Statement Leverage Reconciliation to Managed Leverage Liquidity Sources Balance Sheet Liquidity Profile Non-GAAP Financial Measures that Supplement GAAP Measures Definitions and Calculations A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7 A8 A9 A10 A11 A12 A13 A14
20 Americas Financing Shares And Contract Placement Volume Financing Shares (%) Retail Installment and Lease Share of Ford Retail Sales (excl. Fleet) United States 63 % 65 % 56 % 55 % 58 % Canada Wholesale Share United States 77 % 76 % 76 % 76 % 76 % Canada Contract Placement Volume - New and Used Retail / Lease (000) United States 1,231 1,342 1,159 1,119 1,151 Canada Mexico Total Americas Segment 1,405 1,528 1,387 1,343 1,352 A1 20
21 Europe Financing Shares And Contract Placement Volume Financing Shares (incl. Fleet) (%) Retail Installment and Lease Share of Total Ford Sales U.K. 40 % 40 % 38 % 35 % 37 % Germany Total Europe Segment Wholesale Share U.K. 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % Germany Total Europe Segment Contract Placement Volume - New and Used Retail / Lease (000) U.K Germany All Other Total Europe Segment A2 21
22 Asia Pacific Financing Shares And Contract Placement Volume Financing Shares (incl. Fleet) (%) Retail Installment Share of Total Ford Sales China 13 % 12 % 19 % 28 % 35 % India Wholesale Share China 62 % 56 % 58 % 57 % 63 % India Contract Placement Volume - New and Used Retail (000) China India Total Asia Pacific Segment A3 22
23 U.S. Origination Metrics Higher Risk Portfolio Mix Average Placement FICO Retail and Lease FICO and Higher Risk Mix (Pct) % 6% 6% 6% 6% Retail 84 Months Mix Average Retail Placement Term Retail Contract Terms Disciplined and consistent underwriting practices Portfolio quality evidenced by FICO scores and steady risk mix Extended-term contracts relatively small part of our business 62 mo 64 mo 65 mo 65 mo 65 mo 0% 0% 1% 2% 4% A4 23
24 U.S. Retail And Lease Credit Loss Drivers Over-60-Day Delinquencies (excl. Bankruptcies) Repossessions (000) and Repo. Rate (Pct) Repo. Rate Repossessions 0.14% 0.12% 0.15% 0.14% 0.12% 1.06% 0.98% % % 1.09% Delinquencies and repossessions remain low Severity (000) Charge-Offs (Mils) and LTR Ratio (Pct) LTR Ratio Charge-Offs Charge-offs and LTR improved YoY Strong loss metrics reflect healthy consumer credit conditions $10.1 $10.3 $ % 0.33% 0.47% 0.53% 0.46% $7.9 $8.9 $324 $382 $348 $146 $ A5 24
25 Worldwide Credit Loss Metrics LTR Ratio Charge-Offs 0.19% Charge-Offs (Mils) and LTR Ratio (Pct) 0.34% 0.34% 0.31% 0.23% $209 $271 $415 $481 $ Credit Loss Reserve (Mils) and Reserve as a Pct of EOP Managed Receivables (Pct) Reserve as a Pct of EOP Managed Receivables Credit Loss Reserve 0.32% 0.33% 0.40% 0.44% 0.43% Worldwide credit loss metrics remain strong Credit loss reserve based on historical losses, portfolio quality and receivables level $359 $422 $548 $668 $ A6 25
26 U.S. Lease Origination Metrics 24-Month 36-Month Month / Other Lease Placement Volume (000) Ford Credit Industry* Lease Share of Retail Sales (Pct) Lease share continues to be below industry reflecting Ford sales mix 26% 28% 30% 29% 30% 20% 22% 22% 20% 22% * Source: J.D. Power PIN A
27 U.S. Lease Residual Performance Return Rates Return Volume 78% Lease Return Volume (000) and Return Rates (Pct) 78% 80% 78% 74% Healthy used car market supporting lease residual and credit loss performance 36-month auction values up 4% YoY; stronger than expected 24-Month 36-Month $21,315 Off-Lease Auction Values (at FY 2018 Mix) $22,195 $21,285 $21,655 $21,950 Expect 2019 FY average auction values to be about 4% lower YoY at constant mix $18,695 $17,910 $18,055 $17,110 $17, A8 27
28 Total Net Receivables Reconciliation To Managed Receivables (Bils) Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Finance receivables, net (GAAP) $ $ $ Net investment in operating leases (GAAP) Total net receivables $ $ $ Unearned interest supplements and residual support Allowance for credit losses Other, primarily accumulated supplemental depreciation Total managed receivables (Non-GAAP)* $ $ $ * See Appendix for definitions; numbers may not sum due to rounding A9 28
29 Financial Statement Leverage Reconciliation To Managed Leverage* (Bils) Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Leverage Calculation Total debt $ $ $ Adjustments for cash (10.8) (11.8) (10.2) Adjustments for derivative accounting (0.3) Total adjusted debt $ $ $ Equity $ 12.8 $ 15.9 $ 15.0 Adjustments for derivative accounting (0.3) (0.1) (0.2) Total adjusted equity $ 12.5 $ 15.8 $ 14.8 Financial statement leverage (to 1) (GAAP) Managed leverage (to 1) (Non-GAAP) * See Appendix for definitions A10 29
30 Liquidity Sources* (Bils) Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Liquidity Sources Cash $ 10.8 $ 11.8 $ 10.2 Committed ABS facilities Other unsecured credit facilities Ford corporate credit facility allocation Total liquidity sources $ 50.9 $ 51.5 $ 51.6 Utilization of Liquidity Securitization cash $ (3.4) $ (3.8) $ (3.0) Committed ABS facilities (19.9) (17.2) (20.7) Other unsecured credit facilities (0.7) (1.1) (0.7) Ford corporate credit facility allocation Total utilization of liquidity $ (24.0) $ (22.1) $ (24.4) Gross liquidity $ 26.9 $ 29.4 $ 27.2 Adjustments Net liquidity available for use $ 27.0 $ 29.5 $ 27.3 * See Appendix for definitions A11 30
31 Balance Sheet Liquidity Profile (Bils) Cumulative Maturities at December 31, 2018 Assets* Debt** $94 $128 $93 $151 $115 $164 $141 $64 *** & Beyond Unsecured Long-Term Debt Maturities $14.4 $15.1 $15.3 $22.0 * Includes finance receivables net of unearned income, investment in operating leases net of accumulated depreciation, cash and cash equivalents, and marketable securities (excluding amounts related to insurance activities) ** Retail and lease ABS are treated as amortizing to match the underlying assets *** Includes all of the wholesale ABS term maturities of $10.6 billion that otherwise contractually extend to 2020 and beyond A12 31
32 Non-GAAP Financial Measures That Supplement GAAP Measures We use both GAAP and non-gaap financial measures for operational and financial decision making, and to assess Company and segment business performance. The non-gaap measures listed below are intended to be considered by users as supplemental information to their equivalent GAAP measures, to aid investors in better understanding our financial results. We believe that these non-gaap measures provide useful perspective on underlying business results and trends, and a means to assess our period-over-period results. These non-gaap measures should not be considered as a substitute for, or superior to measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. These non- GAAP measures may not be the same as similarly titled measures used by other companies due to possible differences in method and in items or events being adjusted. Ford Credit Managed Receivables (Most Comparable GAAP Measure: Net Finance Receivables plus Net Investment in Operating Leases) Measure of Ford Credit s Total net receivables, excluding unearned interest supplements and residual support, allowance for credit losses, and other (primarily accumulated supplemental depreciation). The measure is useful to management and investors as it closely approximates the customer s outstanding balance on the receivables, which is the basis for earning revenue. Ford Credit Managed Leverage (Most Comparable GAAP Measure: Financial Statement Leverage) Ford Credit s debt-to-equity ratio adjusted (i) to exclude cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities (other than amounts related to insurance activities), and (ii) for derivative accounting. The measure is useful to investors because it reflects the way Ford Credit manages its business. Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities are deducted because they generally correspond to excess debt beyond the amount required to support operations and on-balance sheet securitization transactions. Derivative accounting adjustments are made to asset, debt, and equity positions to reflect the impact of interest rate instruments used with Ford Credit s term-debt issuances and securitization transactions. Ford Credit generally repays its debt obligations as they mature, so the interim effects of changes in market interest rates are excluded in the calculation of managed leverage. A13 32 A4
33 A14 33 A5 Definitions And Calculations Adjustments (as shown on the Liquidity Sources chart) Include certain adjustments for asset-backed capacity in excess of eligible receivables and cash related to the Ford Credit Revolving Extended Variable-utilization program ( FordREV ), which can be accessed through future sales of receivables Cash (as shown on the Funding Structure, Liquidity Sources and Leverage charts) Cash and cash equivalents and Marketable securities reported on Ford Credit s balance sheet, excluding amounts related to insurance activities Committed Asset-Backed Security ( ABS ) Facilities (as shown on the Liquidity Sources chart) Committed ABS facilities are subject to availability of sufficient assets, ability to obtain derivatives to manage interest rate risk, and exclude FCE Bank plc ( FCE ) access to the Bank of England s Discount Window Facility Earnings Before Taxes (EBT) Reflects Income before income taxes as reported on Ford Credit s income statement ROE (as shown on the Key Metrics chart) Reflects an annualized return on equity. This metric is calculated by taking net income for the period divided by average equity for the period and annualizing the result by dividing by the number of days in the quarter and multiplying by 365 Securitizations (as shown on the Public Term Funding Plan chart) Public securitization transactions, Rule 144A offerings sponsored by Ford Motor Credit, and widely distributed offerings by Ford Credit Canada Securitization Cash (as shown on the Liquidity Sources chart) Securitization cash is cash held for the benefit of the securitization investors (for example, a reserve fund) Term Asset-Backed Securities (as shown on the Funding Structure chart) Obligations issued in securitization transactions that are payable only out of collections on the underlying securitized assets and related enhancements Total Debt (as shown on the Leverage chart) Debt on Ford Credit s balance sheet. Includes debt issued in securitizations and payable only out of collections on the underlying securitized assets and related enhancements. Ford Credit holds the right to receive the excess cash flows not needed to pay the debt issued by, and other obligations of, the securitization entities that are parties to those securitization transactions Total Net Receivables (as shown on the Total Net Receivables Reconciliation To Managed Receivables chart) Includes finance receivables (retail and wholesale) sold for legal purposes and net investment in operating leases included in securitization transactions that do not satisfy the requirements for accounting sale treatment. These receivables and operating leases are reported on Ford Credit s balance sheet and are available only for payment of the debt issued by, and other obligations of, the securitization entities that are parties to those securitization transactions; they are not available to pay the other obligations of Ford Credit or the claims of Ford Credit s other creditors Unallocated Other (as shown on the EBT By Segment chart) Items excluded in assessing segment performance because they are managed at the corporate level, including market valuation adjustments to derivatives and exchange-rate fluctuations on foreign currency-denominated transactions
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