Econ 340. Lecture 20 International Policies for Economic Development: Financial

Transcription

1 Econ 340 Lecture 20 International Policies for Economic Development: Financial

2 Exam 2 Curve 2

3 News: Nov US considers quotas on steel and aluminum from Canada and Mexico -- NYT: 11/21 Canvas As of now, in spite of the renegotiated NAFTA known as USMCA, steel and aluminum imports from Canada and Mexico are still subject to the 25% and 10% tariffs levied earlier on national security grounds. Before signing the USMCA at the G20 summit later this month, Canada and Mexico want the tariffs removed. The US is offering to replace the tariffs with import quotas. The size of the quotas would be crucial. Mexico has been receptive to the proposal, but Canada so far is not. US political problems for the USMCA -- NYT: 11/21 Canvas Approval of the USMCA in the newly elected House of Representatives in 2019 will face opposition from many Democrats, who want stronger protections for American workers and enforcement of provisions to raise wages of Mexican auto workers. Concern about approval in the new Congress is motivating Senate Republicans to seek approval in the lame-duck session. But a large group of conservative Republicans are objecting to language inserted in the USMCA by Canada that would protect workers in all three countries from "discrimination on the basis of sex, including sexual orientation and gender identity." They object that this impinges on US sovereignty to enact its own social policies. US trying to stop other countries from buying from China's Huawei -- WSJ: 11/23 Canvas The US, concerned about a threat to cybersecurity from products made by China's Huawei Technologies Co., had already mostly blocked purchases by the US from the firm. Huawei is the world's number 2 smartphone maker and the global leader in telecom equipment. Now the US is trying to persuade allies where US military bases are located to also stop using Huawei's equipment, because of risk to our security. Huawei insists that it is employee owned and "not beholden to any government." Of special concern is the move to "5G", the coming generation of mobile technology, which the US government doesn't want Huawei fo dominate, and in which Huawei is now far ahead of competitors. The US worries that the company, on behalf of the Chinese government, might spy on or disable commercial connections in other countries that the US military would find it necessary to use. 3

4 News: Nov US considers quotas on steel and aluminum from Canada and Mexico As of now, in spite of the renegotiated NAFTA known as USMCA, steel and aluminum imports from Canada and Mexico are still subject to the 25% and 10% tariffs levied earlier on national security grounds. Before signing the USMCA at the G20 summit later this month, Canada and Mexico want the tariffs removed. The US is offering to replace the tariffs with import quotas. The size of the quotas would be crucial. Mexico has been receptive to the proposal, but Canada so far is not. 4

5 News: Nov US political problems for the USMCA Approval of the USMCA in the newly elected House of Representatives in 2019 will face opposition from many Democrats, who want stronger protections for American workers and enforcement of provisions to raise wages of Mexican auto workers. Concern about approval in the new Congress is motivating Senate Republicans to seek approval in the lame-duck session. But a large group of conservative Republicans are objecting to language inserted in the USMCA by Canada that would protect workers in all three countries from "discrimination on the basis of sex, including sexual orientation and gender identity." They object that this impinges on US sovereignty to enact its own social policies. 5

6 News: Nov US trying to stop other countries from buying from China's Huawei The US, concerned about a threat to cybersecurity from products made by China's Huawei Technologies Co., had already mostly blocked purchases by the US from the firm. Huawei is the world's number 2 smartphone maker and the global leader in telecom equipment. Now the US is trying to persuade allies where US military bases are located to also stop using Huawei's equipment, because of risk to our security. Huawei insists that it is employee owned and "not beholden to any government." Of special concern is the move to "5G", the coming generation of mobile technology, which the US government doesn't want Huawei fo dominate, and in which Huawei is now far ahead of competitors. The US worries that the company, on behalf of the Chinese government, might spy on or disable commercial connections in other countries that the US military would find it necessary to use. 6

7 Lecture 20 Outline: International Policies for Economic Development: Financial The Issues Choice of Exchange Rate Regime Pros and Cons of Free Capital Movements Debt Problem of the 1980s The Asian Crisis of 1997 Capital Controls (How) Should Others Help? The World Financial Crisis and Developing Countries 7

8 The Issues Questions for Developing Countries Themselves How to manage exchange rate Whether to restrict capital flows Questions for Others, regarding Developing Countries Pros and Cons of Foreign Aid (next lecture) Bailouts of countries Debt Forgiveness World Bank Lending 8

9 Lecture 20 Outline: International Policies for Economic Development: Financial The Issues Choice of Exchange Rate Regime Pros and Cons of Free Capital Movements Debt Problem of the 1980s The Asian Crisis of 1997 Capital Controls (How) Should Others Help? The World Financial Crisis and Developing Countries 9

10 Choice of Exchange Rate Regime Problems Floating rate: Temptation to inflate (This has led countries to use a pegged rate instead, using the peg as an anchor to lock in low inflation) Pegged rate: Tendency to become overvalued (because they are tempted to have inflation anyway) Subject to exchange-rate crises 10

11 Choice of Exchange Rate Regime There is no easy answer My recommendation: combination of Floating exchange rate Responsible monetary policy How can this be assured? Independent central bank 11

12 Lecture 20 Outline: International Policies for Economic Development: Financial The Issues Choice of Exchange Rate Regime Pros and Cons of Free Capital Movements Debt Problem of the 1980s The Asian Crisis of 1997 Capital Controls (How) Should Others Help? The World Financial Crisis and Developing Countries 12

13 Pros and Cons of Free Capital Efficiency Gains Movements If return to capital in developing countries is higher than in developed countries Then capital should flow into them Gains are analogous to the gains from trade and gains from migration (You) Could draw supply and demand curves for capital in two countries. Measure the effects (gains and losses) of capital flows as we did for migration. 13

14 Pros and Cons of Free Capital Movements Costs of international capital movements (See Crook) Capital markets are more prone to mistakes than goods markets: values depend on the future, which is hard to know The use of leverage (borrowing to finance a purchase) increases risk (borrowers can gain more, but can also lose more than the value of their own wealth) Borrowing across currencies adds additional risk of exchange-rate change All these create a potential for crisis that does not arise with trade in goods 14

15 Pros and Cons of Free Capital Movements Vulnerability to Crisis Some capital is very liquid ( Liquid means readily converted into cash ) Bonds can be sold Bank deposits can be withdrawn Liquid capital that flows into a country may just as easily flow back out, if investors fear Default (nonpayment by debtors) Exchange Depreciation (reducing value of loan or ability to repay) If that happens, a developing country that relied on foreign capital is suddenly in big trouble. This has happened repeatedly: The debt problems of the 1980s The Asian crisis of 1997 Greece et al. in ?; Cyprus 2013 We ll look more at these 15

16 Clicker Question What is the best choice of exchange regime for developing countries? a) Pegged exchange rates because they permit monetary policy b) Pegged exchange rates because they lead to overvaluation c) Floating exchange rates because they fight inflation d) Floating exchange rates because they reduce uncertainty e) There is no best choice for all developing countries

17 Clicker Question Which of the following is not one of the drawbacks of free international capital movements? a) Bank deposits can be withdrawn too easily b) Capital is likely to flow to countries where the return is higher c) Capital that flows in can just as easily flow out d) People borrow to finance their holdings, increasing risk e) Capital markets are more prone to mistakes than goods markets

18 Lecture 20 Outline: International Policies for Economic Development: Financial The Issues Choice of Exchange Rate Regime Pros and Cons of Free Capital Movements Debt Problem of the 1980s The Asian Crisis of 1997 Capital Controls (How) Should Others Help? The World Financial Crisis and Developing Countries 18

19 Debt Problem of the 1980s Sources of the Problem Developing countries interest rates are normally high, for two reasons: Productivity of capital is high because it is scarce Development projects are risky, so borrowers pay a premium To deal with resulting shortage of investment, developing-country governments either Did the borrowing from abroad themselves, or Guaranteed the loans to private borrowers 19

20 Debt Problem of the 1980s Sources of the Problem The Role of Oil Oil prices rose in the 1970s OPEC (=Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) Earned dollars for their oil Made loans to developed countries Developed countries, in turn, made loans to developing countries Called recycling petrodollars Result: Developing-country debt grew very large by the end of the 1970s 20

21 Debt Problem of the 1980s Sources of the Problem Servicing debt became harder in the 1980s, due to Recession of Which reduced exports Appreciation of the US dollar A problem because debts were denominated in dollars Developing country inflation and resulting currency overvaluation 21

22 Debt Problem of the 1980s Who did this happen to? Latin America, especially How did they deal with it? Rescheduling loans (= reducing payments) Effect afterwards: Made it more difficult for them to borrow afterwards, hurting their investment and growth for many years The Lost Decade of the 1980s. 22

23 Lecture 20 Outline: International Policies for Economic Development: Financial The Issues Choice of Exchange Rate Regime Pros and Cons of Free Capital Movements Debt Problem of the 1980s The Asian Crisis of 1997 Capital Controls (How) Should Others Help? The World Financial Crisis and Developing Countries 23

24 The Asian Crisis of 1997 Who experienced the Asian crisis, and when: Country Currency When crisis hit Thailand Baht Jul 1997 Philippines Peso Jul 1997 Malaysia Ringgit Oct 1997 S. Korea Won Nov 1997 Indonesia Rupiah Dec

25 The Asian Crisis of 1997 Characteristics of countries before the crisis Mostly pegged exchange rates Open capital markets Current account deficits, but not large Rapidly growing economies Not particularly irresponsible fiscally 25

26 The Asian Crisis of 1997 What happened Loss of confidence in their currencies Capital outflows Speculative attack Devaluation Recession 26

27 The Asian Crisis of

28 The Asian Crisis of 1997 What has happened since (See Kharas) Rapid recovery: pre-crisis levels of income were regained by 1999 in Korea, Malaysia, and Philippines by 2003 in Thailand and Indonesia, who had been hit hardest. This is faster than the recovery from the earlier Latin American debt crisis, which took a decade Exports led the recovery 28

29 The Asian Crisis of 1997 What has happened since The countries have changed a lot They are now more open (tariffs now less than 5%) Shift from diversification to specialization More integrated with the regional economy (i.e., China) More R&D Educated workers Urban Financing shifted from banks to capital markets 29

30 The Asian Crisis of 1997 What has happened since There are, however, stresses Rapid migration Not to the largest cities But to small and medium cities Politics in these cities can t keep up They lack local officials with experience Result is corruption 30

31 Clicker Question What role did oil play in the contributing to the debt problems of developing countries in the 1980s? a) They had to borrow in order to afford the oil they needed b) Oil contributed to global warming, which reduced their incomes c) Profits from oil were lent through rich country banks to governments of developing countries d) Borrowers in the private sector used oil as collateral for loans e) The drop in the price of oil impoverished many developing-country oil producers

32 Clicker Question Which victim of the Asian Crisis of 1997 experienced the greatest fall in the value of its currency? a) Indonesia b) Malaysia c) Thailand d) S. Korea e) Hong Kong

33 Lecture 20 Outline: International Policies for Economic Development: Financial The Issues Choice of Exchange Rate Regime Pros and Cons of Free Capital Movements Debt Problem of the 1980s The Asian Crisis of 1997 Capital Controls (How) Should Others Help? The World Financial Crisis and Developing Countries 33

34 Capital Controls Definition: Capital Controls = government restrictions on financial transactions, into and/or out of the country Or, from Forbes: various laws and regulations that restrict foreign investment in such areas as stock markets, banks and domestic firms 34

35 Capital Controls Arguments in favor: Reduce liquidity and prevent crises. Prevent contagion (speculative attacks prompted by crises in similar countries) Infant industry protection for financial firms Free governments to pursue needed financial reforms 35

36 Capital Controls Costs (see Forbes): Increase financing costs for domestic firms. Induce market-distorting behaviors to avoid the costs of controls, or evade them. Insulate markets from competition Difficult and costly to enforce In Chile: caused investment in small companies to plummet Whom do they hurt most? Small firms, who suffer from shortage of capital 36

37 Capital Controls Arguments against: Deprives firms of ability to borrow, and/or raises the cost to them of borrowing Protects inefficient firms, much like tariffs 37

38 Clicker Question Which is not one of the arguments in favor of capital controls? a) They reduce liquidity and prevent crises. b) They prevent contagion (speculative attacks prompted by crises in similar countries) c) They provide infant industry protection for financial firms d) They insulate markets from competition e) The permit governments to pursue needed financial reforms

39 Lecture 20 Outline: International Policies for Economic Development: Financial The Issues Choice of Exchange Rate Regime Pros and Cons of Free Capital Movements Debt Problem of the 1980s The Asian Crisis of 1997 Capital Controls (How) Should Others Help? The World Financial Crisis and Developing Countries 39

40 (How) Should Others Help? Bailouts = give country money when a crisis occurs or looms. Pro: Avoid crisis, and the resulting harm Con: Discourages reforms that could prevent future problems Countries come to expect bailout Moral hazard = tendency to act more irresponsibly when adverse consequences are known to be reduced 40

41 (How) Should Others Help? Debt Forgiveness (see Krueger & Srinivasan) = Cancellation of old debts Pro: Reduces burden on poor countries Con: Discourages future lending to poor countries 41

42 (How) Should Others Help? World Bank Lending (see Lerrick) In the past WB could borrow on much better terms than developing countries It therefore borrowed and made low-interest loans to them It also imposed onerous requirements on them, called technical assistance 42

43 (How) Should Others Help? World Bank Lending (see Lerrick) Now Developing country credit ratings have improved Technical assistance discourages them from using WB WB still makes loans, but persuades developed countries to pay the interest 43

44 (How) Should Others Help? World Bank Lending Lerrick (and others) say WB should Stop lending at all Make grants, not loans, to countries whose credit is weak 44

45 What is moral hazard? Clicker Question a) The loss of competitiveness that occurs when firms that have borrowed are unable to pay back their loans b) The risk that illegal drugs may be smuggled inside of legal imports c) The tendency to act more irresponsibly when adverse consequences are known to be reduced d) The possibility that a currency will fall in value instead of rise e) The possibility that a currency will rise in value instead of fall

46 Lecture 20 Outline: International Policies for Economic Development: Financial The Issues Choice of Exchange Rate Regime Pros and Cons of Free Capital Movements Debt Problem of the 1980s The Asian Crisis of 1997 Capital Controls (How) Should Others Help? The World Financial Crisis and Developing Countries 46

47 The World Financial Crisis and Developing Countries The World Financial Crisis of 2008 Effects of crisis: Spread to developing countries, pushing many back into poverty Growth slowed, falling behind population growth Rising joblessness and closed factories Capital flows into developing countries declined Decline in commodities prices (hurt some, helped others) 47

48 The World Financial Crisis and Developing Countries Effects were not just due to fall in demand or supply, but due to lack of availability of credit. Even oil exporters were hurting: Drop in oil price Many had borrowed heavily, and loans are hard to roll over However, unexpectedly, many developing countries Had income decline less than developed countries Recovered more quickly Since then have often helped others to recover 48

49 Clicker Question Which of the following is not one of the reasons given by Krueger and Srinivasan, in their article The Harsh Consequences of Forgiveness, for not forgiving the debts of the heavily indebted poor countries? a) Not all poor countries are heavily in debt, yet they too need help b) Past episodes of debt relief have not benefited the poor c) Direct use of resources to benefit the poor is more likely to help them d) Poor countries must help themselves, not rely on others, in order for their progress to be lasting e) High debts are often the result of misguided government policies in the past, which are likely to be repeated

50 Next Time International Policies for Economic Development: Aid Why Should We Care? Who Gives Aid? Does Aid Work? Pros and Cons of Aid Policy Recommendations 50