Fixed Income Investor Presentation FIRST QUARTER 2015

Transcription

1 Fixed Income Investor Presentation FIRST QUARTER 2015

2 Caution Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Our public communications often include oral or written forward-looking statements. Statements of this type are included in this document, and may be included in other filings with Canadian securities regulators or the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, or in other communications. All such statements are made pursuant to the safe harbour provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and any applicable Canadian securities legislation. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements made in this document, the Management s Discussion and Analysis in the Bank s 2014 Annual Report under the headings Overview Outlook, for Group Financial Performance Outlook, for each business segment Outlook and in other statements regarding the Bank s objectives, strategies to achieve those objectives, expected financial results (including those in the area of risk management), and the outlook for the Bank s businesses and for the Canadian, United States and global economies. Such statements are typically identified by words or phrases such as believe, expect, anticipate, intent, estimate, plan, may increase, may fluctuate, and similar expressions of future or conditional verbs, such as will, should, would and could. By their very nature, forwardlooking statements involve numerous assumptions, inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, and the risk that predictions and other forward-looking statements will not prove to be accurate. Do not unduly rely on forward-looking statements, as a number of important factors, many of which are beyond our control, could cause actual results to differ materially from the estimates and intentions expressed in such forward-looking statements. These factors include, but are not limited to: the economic and financial conditions in Canada and globally; fluctuations in interest rates and currency values; liquidity; significant market volatility and interruptions; the failure of third parties to comply with their obligations to us and our affiliates; the effect of changes in monetary policy; legislative and regulatory developments in Canada and elsewhere, including changes in tax laws; the effect of changes to our credit ratings; amendments to, and interpretations of, risk-based capital guidelines and reporting instructions and liquidity regulatory guidance; operational and reputational risks; the risk that the Bank s risk management models may not take into account all relevant factors; the accuracy and completeness of information the Bank receives on customers and counterparties; the timely development and introduction of new products and services in receptive markets; the Bank s ability to expand existing distribution channels and to develop and realize revenues from new distribution channels; the Bank s ability to complete and integrate acquisitions and its other growth strategies; changes in accounting policies and methods the Bank uses to report its financial condition and financial performance, including uncertainties associated with critical accounting assumptions and estimates (see Controls and Accounting Policies Critical accounting estimates in the Bank s 2014 Annual Report); the effect of applying future accounting changes (see Controls and Accounting Policies Future accounting developments in the Bank s 2014 Annual Report); global capital markets activity; the Bank s ability to attract and retain key executives; reliance on third parties to provide components of the Bank s business infrastructure; unexpected changes in consumer spending and saving habits; technological developments; fraud by internal or external parties, including the use of new technologies in unprecedented ways to defraud the Bank or its customers; increasing cyber security risks which may include theft of assets, unauthorized access to sensitive information or operational disruptions; consolidation in the Canadian financial services sector; competition, both from new entrants and established competitors; judicial and regulatory proceedings; acts of God, such as earthquakes and hurricanes; the possible impact of international conflicts and other developments, including terrorist acts and war on terrorism; the effects of disease or illness on local, national or international economies; disruptions to public infrastructure, including transportation, communication, power and water; and the Bank s anticipation of and success in managing the risks implied by the foregoing. A substantial amount of the Bank s business involves making loans or otherwise committing resources to specific companies, industries or countries. Unforeseen events affecting such borrowers, industries or countries could have a material adverse effect on the Bank s financial results, businesses, financial condition or liquidity. These and other factors may cause the Bank s actual performance to differ materially from that contemplated by forward-looking statements. For more information, see the Risk Management section starting on page 65 of the Bank s 2014 Annual Report. Material economic assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements contained in this document are set out in the 2014 Annual Report under the headings Overview Outlook, and for each business segment Outlook. These Outlook sections are based on the Bank s views and the actual outcome is uncertain. Readers should consider the above-noted factors when reviewing these sections. The preceding list of important factors is not exhaustive. When relying on forward-looking statements to make decisions with respect to the Bank and its securities, investors and others should carefully consider the preceding factors, other uncertainties and potential events. The Bank does not undertake to update any forward-looking statements, whether written or oral, that may be made from time to time by or on its behalf. Additional information relating to the Bank, including the Bank s Annual Information Form, can be located on the SEDAR website at and on the EDGAR section of the SEC s website at 2

3 Appendix: other Scotiabank Overview 3

4 Canada s International Bank History Global footprint in over 55 countries Established in 1832 In U.S. and Caribbean years Representative offices in Asia and Latin America since 1960 s Began expanding presence in Mexico and Latin America in 1990 s. Primary focus in the region is on the countries of Chile, Peru, Colombia, Mexico Scotiabank Credit Ratings 3 Moody s S&P Fitch DBRS Senior Rating Aa2 A+ AA- AA Outstanding Covered Bonds Aaa Not Rated (1) Taxable Equivalent Basis (2) Basel III all-in Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio (3) A securities rating is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold securities and may be subject to revisions or withdrawals at any time AAA AAA Outlook Negative Negative Stable Stable 4 Key Data Q1/15 (C$) Total Assets $852B Risk Weighted Assets $335B Market Capitalization $74B Q1/15 Net Income $1.7B ROE 14.2% Productivity Ratio % Capital Ratio % # of Employees 87,090

5 Our Businesses Personal & Commercial Banking, Wealth and Insurance Canadian Banking Full suite of financial advice and banking solutions to retail, small business and commercial customers Investment, pension and insurance advice and solutions Looking to become Canada s most recommended bank by providing an excellent customer experience Key Data Q1/15 (C$) Total Assets (avg.) $297B Total Deposits (avg.) $206B Net Income 1 $815MM Productivity Ratio 53.6% # of Employees 27,135 Branches 1,040 Commercial Revenue Mix (Q1/15) Wealth 16% 29% 55% Retail International Banking Operate primarily in Caribbean, Central America, Latin America with a focus on Mexico, Colombia, Peru and Chile Partner with associated corporations in China, Thailand and Curacao Full range of personal and commercial financial services as well as wealth products and solutions Key Data Q1/15 (C$) Total Assets (avg.) $120B Total Deposits (avg.) $68B Net Income 1 $417MM Productivity Ratio 58.0% # of Employees 49,365 Branches 1,936 Latin America 2 Revenue Mix (Q1/15) 4% Asia 77 % 67% 29% Caribbean & Central America Wholesale Banking Global Banking & Markets Wholesale banking and capital markets products to corporate, government and institutional clients Full service platform in Canada and Mexico. Niche focus in U.S., Central and South America, Asia and select markets in Europe Focus on key sectors: Energy, Mining, Infrastructure and Financial Services Key Data Q1/15 Q1/15 (C$) Total Assets (avg.) $339B Total Deposits (avg.) $63B Net Income 1 $404MM Productivity Ratio 45.0% # of Employees 2,589 Business Banking Revenue Mix (Q1/15) 52% 77 % 48% Capital Markets (1) Attributable to equity holders of the Bank (2) Excludes affiliates, includes Mexico 5

6 Diversified and Growing Business Line Earnings (Q1/15) Global Banking & Markets International Banking 25% 25% 50% Canadian Banking Lower Risk P&C (Q1/15) 6% 6% Geographic Contribution Q1/15 Geographic Segment Income 10% 23% 55% Canada US Mexico Peru Other Interntional Q1/15 Geographic Segment Assets Canada Wholesale 25% 75% Personal & Commercial 2% 3% 21% 14% 60% US Mexico Peru Other Interntional Diversified by products, customers and geographies, creating stability and lower risk Centralized control over key functions: capital, expense and risk management 6

7 Capital Strong Position Basel III Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) (%) Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 CET1 Risk-Weighted Assets ($B) Highlights Basel III CET1 ratio of 10.3%, down 50bps Q/Q Pension liability revaluation Share buyback Q1/15 internal capital generation of $0.8 billion Repurchased 7 million shares under NCIB in Q1/15 CET1 Risk-weighted assets up $23 billion Q/Q to $335 billion Impact of a weaker Canadian dollar on foreign currency denominated assets Growth in personal and business lending Basel III Leverage ratio of 4.1% Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Capital position remains strong 7

8 Credit Highlights Minimal off-balance sheet assets High proportion of on-balance sheet assets are low risk residential mortgages Corporate loan book is diversified with a focus on Investment Grade clients Underlying credit fundamentals remain strong Loans & Acceptances by Borrower Business & Government Personal & Credit Cards 34% 19% 47% Residential Mortgages Market risk remains well-controlled Provision for Credit Losses Ratio 0.34% 0.36% 0.37% 0.47% 0.42% Gross Impaired Loans Ratio 0.89% 0.90% 0.89% 0.96% 1.01% 1 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 (1) Excludes the impact for accelerated loan write-offs for bankrupt retail accounts of $62 million pre-tax. Including this, the unadjusted Q4/14 All-Bank PCL ratio is 0.53% 8

9 Canadian & Select International Economies 9

10 Canadian Economy and Financial System Canada A highly diversified and export-oriented economy, the 11 th largest in the world Well positioned among G7 despite current slower growth Manageable Canadian government deficits, strong fiscal position among G7 Moderate growth forecast with slowdown in commodity sectors balanced by gains in manufacturing and services Proactive government and central bank Strong Financial System Effective regulatory framework Principles based regime Single regulator for major banks Conservative capital requirements Proactive policies and programs Risk management practices Conservative lending standards Few sub-prime mortgages Relatively little securitization Primarily originate to hold model All major wholesale dealers owned by the banks Canadian banks well capitalized and profitable Canadian Banking System ranked World s Soundest by World Economic Forum for 7 th consecutive year Global Competitiveness Report ( ) 10

11 Canadian Economy Real GDP Growth Canadian GDP by Industry annual % change F-2016F 4.2% 5.3% 6.7% November % 19.4% 12.0% Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Health & Education Wholesale & Retail Trade Manufacturing Mining and Oil & Gas Extraction Construction Public Administration 0 U.S. U.K. Canada Euro zone Japan Forecasts as at February 26, Source: Scotiabank Economics. General Government Net Financial Liabilities 7.2% 8.4% 10.5% 11.2% Source: Statistics Canada, BLS, Scotiabank Economics. Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Transportation & Warehousing Other Government Financial Deficits % of GDP 2 % of GDP Canada Germany U.K. OECD France U.S. Italy Japan Source: OECD (2014 estimates); Scotiabank Economics. As at February 18, Germany Canada Italy France U.K. U.S. Japan Source: IMF (2014 estimates), Scotiabank Economics. As at February 18,

12 Favourable Economic Fundamentals Canada Compares favourably to the U.S. Demographics (ageing population) negatively impacting labour participation, although this is somewhat offset in Canada by strong immigration Inflation continues to be stable % Unemployment Rate Canada U.S y/y % change Inflation Source: Statistics Canada, BLS, Scotiabank Economics. Bank of Canada Target Inflation Band Canada U.S Source: Statistics Canada, BLS, Scotiabank Economics. Labour Force Participation Rate 70 % Canada U.S Source: Statistics Canada, BLS, Scotiabank Economics.

13 Economic Outlook in Key Markets 2015 and 2016 Real GDP Growth Forecast Canada / U.S. Scotiabank s Key International Markets 5.3% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 3.9% 2.8% 3.6% 3.5% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.4% 1.9% 2.0% Canada 2015 Canada 2016 U.S U.S Chile 2015 Chile 2016 Mexico 2015 Mexico 2016 Colombia Colombia Thailand Thailand 2016 Peru 2015 Peru 2016 No Significant Exposure to the BRICs Source: Scotia Economics, as of February 27,

14 Canadian Housing Market 14

15 Canadian Housing Fundamentals Remain Sound Steady population growth (including a high rate of immigration), household income gains and low interest rates High household debt supported by continuing economic growth and high levels of homeownership and home equity Continuing low debt service costs Strong underwriting discipline and conservative lending practices Mortgage Debt Service Ratio High Percentage of Equity 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% % of disposable income Mortgage Interest Payments real estate equity as % of real estate assets U.S. Canada 2.0% % % Source:Statistics Canada Source: Statistics Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, Scotiabank Economics. 15

16 Canadian Housing Fundamentals Remain Sound Balanced supply / demand conditions Structural considerations, strong underwriting discipline and conservative lending policies resulting in low delinquency BNS stress tests both residential and retail portfolios for conditions of stressed unemployment rate, average house price decline, interest rate movement Residential Unit Sales to New Listings Residential Mortgages Arrears ratio Source: CREA MLS, Scotiabank Economics Seller s Market Balanced Market Buyer s Market % of mortgages in arrears 3 months or more Canada U.S Source: CBA, MBA, Scotiabank Economics. 16

17 Scotiabank s Canadian Residential Mortgage Portfolio Mortgage business model is originate to hold 52% of the mortgage portfolio is insured 48% is uninsured and has an average loan-to-value (LTV) of 55% Majority is freehold properties; condominiums represent approximately 10% of the portfolio Good diversification across Canada with approximately half of the portfolio anchored in Ontario Loans to Canadian condominium developers were $958MM at Q1/15 ($978 at Q4/14) High quality portfolio of well known developers with longstanding relationships with Scotiabank Canadian Mortgage Portfolio: $189B (spot Balances as at Q1/15, C$B) $93 $9 $84 Insured 52% $25 $26 48% $30 $29 $5 Uninsured (avg. LTV = 55% 1 ) $3 Condominium $20B $169B Freehold $15 $1 $12 $0 $9 $14 $12 $8 $1 Ontario B.C. & Territories Alberta Quebec Atlantic Provinces Manitoba & Saskatchewan (1) LTV calculated based on the total outstanding balance secured by the property. Property values indexed using Teranet and CREA data (2) Some figures on bar chart may not add due to rounding 17

18 Funding 18

19 Funding Strategy Build core deposits in all of our key markets Achieve appropriate balance between cost and stability of funding Maintain pricing relative to peers Diversify funding by type, currency, program, tenor and markets Regular issuance in all markets executed via wholesale funding centres in Toronto, New York, London and Singapore Funding strategy and associated risk management are managed centrally from Toronto within framework of policies and limits approved by Board of Directors For countries where we operate a branch banking subsidiary, strategy is for it to be substantially self-funded in the local market 19

20 Wholesale Funding Composition Mortgage Securitization 4 Subordinated Debt 5 9% Sources 1 2% 3% Deposits from Banks 2 Asset Backed Securities Covered Bonds 1% 9% 43% Bearer Deposit Notes, Commercial Paper & Certificate of Deposits Medium Term Notes and Deposit Notes 30% ABCP 3 3% 1) Wholesale funding sources exclude repo transactions and bankers acceptances, which are disclosed in the contractual maturities table in Note 20 of the Condensed Interim Consolidated Financial Statements. Amounts are based on remaining term to maturity. (2) Only includes commercial bank deposits raised by Group Treasury. (3) Wholesale funding sources also exclude asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) issued by certain ABCP conduits that are not consolidated for financial reporting purposes. (4) Represents residential mortgages funded through Canadian Federal Government agency sponsored programs. Funding accessed through such programs does not impact the funding capacity of the Bank in its own name. (5) Although subordinated debentures are a component of regulatory capital, they are included in this table in accordance with EDTF recommended disclosures. 20

21 Diversified Wholesale Funding Programs Short-Term Funding USD 25 billion Bank CP program USD 3 billion Subsidiary CP program CD Programs (Yankee/USD, EUR, GBP, AUD, HKD) Term Funding & Capital CAD 7 billion ABS shelf (unsecured lines of credit) CAD 10 billion shelf (preferred shares, subordinated debt, common equity) Canada Mortgage Bonds and Mortgage Back Securities USD 1 billion Singapore MTN program AUD 4 billion Australian MTN program USD 15 billion global registered covered bond program (uninsured Canadian mortgages) USD 25 billion shelf (senior notes, preferred shares, subordinated debt, common equity) USD 20 billion global public covered bond shelf (in run-off, CMHC insured mortgages) USD 20 billion EMTN shelf (includes subordinated debt) 21

22 Contact Information Michael Lomas Managing Director, Treasury Sales & Market Development, Group Treasury Mark Michalski Director, Strategy & Market Development, Group Treasury Jake Lawrence Senior Vice President, Investor Relations For additional public information, including our Annual Report and Quarterly Results please visit: 22

23 Appendix: Canadian Covered Bonds 23

24 Scotiabank s Covered Bond Program Global Program USD 15 billion global registered covered bond program (uninsured Canadian mortgages) Active in multiple currencies: USD, EUR, GBP and AUD Covered Bond Legislation Framework passed into law in 2012 Only uninsured mortgages allowed Statutory protection for the covered bond investor and, as a result, in the event of issuer default, increased certainty for investors with respect to the cover pool of collateral Extensive regulatory oversight and pool audit requirements Mandatory property value indexation Established high level of safeguards and disclosure requirements 24

25 Canadian Legislative Covered Bonds (CMHC Registered) Issuance Framework Eligible Assets Mortgage LTV Limits LTV limit of 80% Basis for Valuation of Mortgage Collateral Substitute Assets Substitute Assets Limitation Cash Restriction Coverage Test Credit Enhancement Swaps Market Risk Reporting Covered Bond Supervisory Body CMHC Requirement to Register Issuer and Program Registry Disclosure Requirements Canadian Registered Covered Bond Programs Legal Framework (Canadian National Housing Act) Canadian Registered Covered Bond Programs Guide issued by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) Uninsured loans secured by residential property Starting in July 2014, issuers are required to index the value of the property underlying mortgage loans in the covered pool while performing various tests Securities issued by the Government of Canada Repos of Government of Canada securities having terms acceptable to CMHC 10% of the aggregate value of (a) the loans (b) any Substitute Assets and (c) all cash held by the Guarantor The cash assets of the Guarantor cannot exceed the Guarantor s payment obligations for the immediately succeeding six months Asset Coverage Test Amortization Test Overcollateralization Reserve Fund Prematurity Liquidity Covered bond swap, forward starting Interest rate swap, forward starting Valuation calculation Mandatory property value indexation Yes; prior to first issuance of the covered bond program Yes Monthly investor report with prescribed disclosure requirements set out by CMHC Investor reports must be posted on a program website Required to meet disclosure requirements in the jurisdictions in which the program is registered (US) or listed (UK) 25

26 Scotiabank Registered Covered Bond Program Issuer Guarantor Guarantee Status Program Size Ratings Cover Pool Maximum Asset Percentage Law Issuance Format The Bank of Nova Scotia Scotiabank Covered Bond Guarantor Limited Partnership Payment of interest and principal in respect of the covered bonds will be irrevocably guaranteed by the Guarantor. The obligations of the Guarantor under the Covered Bond Guarantee constitute direct obligations of the Guarantor secured against the assets of the Guarantor, including the Portfolio The covered bonds will constitute legal, valid and binding direct, unconditional, unsubordinated and unsecured obligations of the Bank and will rank pari passu with all deposit liabilities of the Bank without any preference among themselves and at least pari passu with all other unsubordinated and unsecured obligations of the Bank, present and future US$15bn Aaa / AAA / AAA (Moody s / Fitch / DBRS) First lien uninsured Canadian residential mortgage loans 95% (5.3% minimum overcollateralization) Ontario, Canada SEC Registered 144A / Reg S (UKLA Listed) 26

27 Portfolio Details: Scotiabank Global Registered Covered Bond Program 1 Loan-to-Value Ratios 2 1% 4% Credit Scores 2% 3% 16% 0% - 20% 20%-40% 8% 599 and Below % 40%-60% 60%-80% 55% 14% % 80% and Above 18% and Above Remaining Term Distribution Provincial Distribution 3% 1% 1% 1% 5% 54% 11% 28% Less than and Above (1) As at January 29, 2014 (2) Uses indexation methodology as outlined in Footnote 1 of the Scotiabank Global Registered Covered Bond Monthly Investor Report 27 51% 9% 12% 17% 2% 2% 1% 2% Alberta British Columbia Manitoba New Brunswick Newfoundland Nova Scotia Ontario Quebec Saskatchewan Others

28 Appendix: other Appendix: Additional Information 28

29 Housing Market Structural Differences vs. U.S. Regulation and taxation Canada Mortgage interest not tax deductible Full recourse against borrowers in most provinces (in Alberta and Saskatchewan, recourse is only to the value of property) Ability to foreclose on non-performing mortgages with no stay periods Mandatory default insurance for any mortgage with Loan- To-Value > 80% - CMHC insurance backed by the government of Canada (AAA). Private insurers are 90% government backed - Insurance available for homes up to $1 million - Premium is payable upfront by the customer - Covers full amount for life of mortgage Customers with LTV > 80% must qualify at a 5-year fixed rate for variable or less than 5-year term mortgages Re-financing cap of 80% on non-insured mortgages Maximum 25-year amortization on mortgages with LTV > 80% Maximum 30-year amortization on conventional (LTV < 80%) mortgages Down payment of > 20% required for non-owner occupied properties U.S. Tax deductible mortgage interest creates incentive to borrow and delay repayment Lenders have limited recourse in most states 90 day to 1 year stay period to foreclose on non-performing mortgages No regulatory LTV limit Private insurers are not government backed Mortgage insurance often used to cover portion of LTV over 80% Product Conservative product offerings, fixed or variable rate options Can include exotic products (adjustable rate mortgages, interest only) Underwriting Terms usually 3 or 5 years, renewable at maturity Extensive documentation and strong standards 30-year term most common Wide range of documentation and underwriting requirements 29

30 Scotiabank Canadian Mortgage Product Offerings Key Features Fixed Rate Mortgages Fixed rate and payment for a specific term Variable Rate Mortgages Interest rate that changes with Scotiabank Prime, low payment based on current rate that changes with each interest rate change Target Market Want rate stability for a period of time Take advantage of short term market rates over the longer term Delivery Channels Mortgage Terms Eligible loan purpose LTV All channels (branch, Scotia Mortgage Authority (SMA), Home Financing Solutions (HFS)) 6 month, open and closed 1-to-5 years, 7-year closed 10-year closed 5-year closed and open, 3-year capped closed New home purchase, resales, renewals/early renewals, switches, refinances Maximum 80% ( on uninsured mortgages ) & maximum 95% (on insured) Amortization Maximum 25 year amortization on LTV 80% and maximum 30 years if LTV < 80% Prepayment Options Up to 15% of the amount of the original mortgage per year and increase payments by up to 15% of the payment set for the current term Open variable rate mortgage only; prepay any amount at any time without penalty 30

31 Mortgage Legislation and Policy Developments in Canada 2014 CMHC discontinued offering mortgage insurance on second homes and to self employed individuals without 3 rd party income validation 2012 Maximum amortization on insured mortgages reduced to 25 years (from 30) Maximum amount borrowed on insured mortgages at refinancing reduced to 80% (from 85%) CMHC insurance availability is limited to homes with purchase price < $1 million For insured mortgages, maximum gross debt service ratio of 39% and maximum total debt service ratio of 44% Maximum LTV for HELOCs lowered to 65% (from 80%) 2011 Maximum amortization on insured mortgages reduced to 30 years (from 35) Maximum amount borrowed on insured mortgages at refinancing reduced to 85% (from 90%) 2010 Maximum amount borrowed on insured mortgages at refinancing reduced to 90% (from 95%) 5-year fixed rate mortgage used for qualifying rate for conventional mortgages (LTV < 80%) with variable rates or term less than 5 years Minimum 20% down payment to qualify for insured mortgages for non-owner occupied properties 2008 Maximum amortization on insured mortgages reduced to 35 years (from 40) Minimum 5% down payment to qualify for insured mortgages 31