Forward Looking Statements

Transcription

1 Asia Non Deal Roadshow March 2015

2 Forward Looking Statements From time to time, we make written or oral forward-looking statements within the meaning of certain securities laws, including in this presentation, in other filings with Canadian securities regulators or the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and in other communications. All such statements are made pursuant to the safe harbour provisions of, and are intended to be forward-looking statements under, applicable Canadian and U.S. securities legislation, including the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of These statements include, but are not limited to, statements made about our operations, business lines, financial condition, risk management, priorities, targets, ongoing objectives, strategies and outlook for calendar year 2015 and subsequent periods. Forwardlooking statements are typically identified by the words believe, expect, anticipate, intend, estimate, forecast, target, objective and other similar expressions or future or conditional verbs such as will, should, would and could. By their nature, these statements require us to make assumptions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties that may be general or specific. A variety of factors, many of which are beyond our control, affect our operations, performance and results, and could cause actual results to differ materially from the expectations expressed in any of our forward-looking statements. These factors include: credit, market, liquidity, strategic, insurance, operational, reputation and legal, regulatory and environmental risk; the effectiveness and adequacy of our risk management and valuation models and processes; legislative or regulatory developments in the jurisdictions where we operate, including the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act and the regulations issued and to be issued thereunder, the U.S. Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act and regulatory reforms in the United Kingdom and Europe, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision s global standards for capital and liquidity reform and those relating to the payments system in Canada; amendments to, and interpretations of, risk-based capital guidelines and reporting instructions, and interest rate and liquidity regulatory guidance; the resolution of legal and regulatory proceedings and related matters; the effect of changes to accounting standards, rules and interpretations; changes in our estimates of reserves and allowances; changes in tax laws; changes to our credit ratings; political conditions and developments; the possible effect on our business of international conflicts and the war on terror; natural disasters, public health emergencies, disruptions to public infrastructure and other catastrophic events; reliance on third parties to provide components of our business infrastructure; potential disruptions to our information technology systems and services, including the evolving risk of cyber attack; social media risk; losses incurred as a result of internal or external fraud; the accuracy and completeness of information provided to us concerning clients and counterparties; the failure of third parties to comply with their obligations to us and our affiliates; intensifying competition from established competitors and new entrants in the financial services industry including through internet and mobile banking; technological change; global capital market activity; changes in monetary and economic policy; currency value and interest rate fluctuations; general business and economic conditions worldwide, as well as in Canada, the U.S. and other countries where we have operations, including increasing Canadian household debt levels and the high U.S. fiscal deficit; our success in developing and introducing new products and services, expanding existing distribution channels, developing new distribution channels and realizing increased revenue from these channels; changes in client spending and saving habits; our ability to attract and retain key employees and executives; our ability to successfully execute our strategies and complete and integrate acquisitions and joint ventures; and our ability to anticipate and manage the risks associated with these factors. This list is not exhaustive of the factors that may affect any of our forward-looking statements. These and other factors should be considered carefully and readers should not place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements. We do not undertake to update any forward-looking statement that is contained in this presentation or in other communications except as required by law. Investor Relations contacts: Geoff Weiss, Senior Vice-President Investor Relations Fax Number Visit the Investor Relations section at A Note about Forward-Looking Statements 1

3 Contents Highlights Canadian Economy Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce ( CIBC ) Overview Appendix Canadian Mortgage Market Oil & Gas Exposure 2

4 Highlights CIBC Well capitalized top 5 Canadian Bank with Common Equity Tier 1, Tier 1 Capital, and Total Capital ratios of 10.3%, 12.1% and 14.9% respectively, as of January 31, 2015 (1) 5 th largest bank in Canada as measured by market capitalization Highest ROE among peers Canada Best economic performance amongst G7 economies as measured by 10- year GDP growth rate The lowest government net debt-to-gdp among G7 (2) Aaa/AAA/AAA/AAA (Moody s/s&p/fitch/dbrs) The World Economic Forum ranked Canada s financial system the soundest in the world for seven consecutive years, (3) (1) Basel III all-in-basis. (2) Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October (3) Source: The Global Competitiveness Report , World Economic Forum. 3 3

5 Contents Highlights Canadian Economy Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce ( CIBC ) Overview Appendix Canadian Mortgage Market Oil & Gas Exposure 4

6 Canadian Economic Trends Compare Favourably to Other G7 Members Canada had the highest long term GDP growth between 2004 and 2014 among the G7 Only G7 nation to balance its budget for 11 consecutive years ( ), and on track to return to balanced budgets in 2015 Lowest government net debt-to-gdp ratio among G7 1.94% Canada Long Term GDP Growth Rate ( ) (1) (%) 1.79% U.S. 1.33% U.K. 1.33% Germany 0.94% France 0.82% Japan -0.21% Italy Canadian Federal Budget Balance (Fiscal Year) (2) ($ billions) Total Government Net Debt-to-GDP Ratio (2014) (1) (%) Projections % 53.9% 83.9% 88.1% 80.8% 114.3% 137.8% Canada Germany U.K. France U.S. Italy Japan (1) Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October Includes estimates for (2) Source: Statistics Canada, Department of Finance. The Fiscal Year runs from April-March. For example, the 2014 Fiscal Year period is from April 1, 2014 to March 31,

7 Canadian Economy is Well Diversified Well diversified economy, with several key industries including finance, manufacturing, services and commodities Although several sectors have been impacted by the global recession, the diversity has been a stabilizing factor and has led to strong economic performance relative to other industrialized nations GDP By Industry (monthly) (September 2014) Exports: Top 20 Industries (2013) Arts, entertainment and recreation, 1% Health care and social assistance, 7% Educational services, 5% Public administration, 7% Accommodation and food services, 2% Other services (except public administration), 2% Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, 1% Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, 8% Manufacturing, 11% Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services, 3% Professional, scientific and technical services, 5% Finance and Insurance, 20% Retail trade, 5% Construction, 7% Utilities, 2% Transportation and warehousing, 4% Information and cultural industries, 3% Wholesale trade, 6% Source: Statistics Canada 6

8 Contents Highlights Canadian Economy Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce ( CIBC ) Overview Appendix Canadian Mortgage Market Oil & Gas Exposure 7

9 Our Stock & Our Company (1)(2) CIBC is a leading Canadian-based global financial institution with a client-focused strategy that creates value for our stakeholders. OUR STOCK CM SYMBOL NYSE/ TSX EXCHANGE $35B MARKET CAP 1.1M SHARES/DAY Aa3, A+, AA- DEBT RATINGS 4.6% YIELD OUR COMPANY ~11M CLIENTS +1,100 BRANCHES +43K EMPLOYEES $13.7B REVENUE $3.7B NET INCOME $445B TOTAL ASSETS (1) Presented under IFRS basis. Non-GAAP measures which exclude items of note as referenced in our quarterly Report to Shareholders. (2) Last Twelve Months or As of January 31,

10 2015 Strategy Corporate Objective 1 2 Investing in our core franchise to deepen client relationships Growing our US Franchise in Wealth Management A strong performance - oriented relationship bank 3 Maintaining disciplined capital deployment and sound risk management Client-centric focus to create value for all stakeholders 99

11 Our Business Segments THREE MAIN SEGMENTS (FY2015 LTM; Net Income of $3.7B) (1) 65% Retail and Business Banking 14% Wealth Management 26% Wholesale Banking -6% Corporate & Other -6% 26% 65% 14% (1) Last twelve months (as of Q1/15). Net Income includes $202MM loss from Corporate and Other. Results are adjusted for items of note

12 Strong Performance. Diluted Earnings / Share (1) ($) Basel III Common Equity Ratio (%) % Q1/15 (2) CM Peer Average (1) Presented under IFRS basis. Non-GAAP measures which exclude items of note as referenced in our quarterly Report to Shareholders. (2) Q1/15 Peer Average does not include BNS as BNS has not released its earnings for Q1/15 yet. Sound risk management is a key element of CIBC s strategy 11

13 . and attractive returns to shareholders (1) Return on Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Q1/15 (2) (2) Q1/15 CM Peer Average CM Peer Average (1) Presented under IFRS basis. Non-GAAP measures which exclude items of note as referenced in our quarterly Report to Shareholders. (2) Q1/15 Peer Average does not include BNS as BNS has not released its earnings for Q1/15 yet. Return on Equity greater than 20% for last 21 Quarters 12

14 Disciplined Capital Deployment Reinvestment / Return to Shareholders Cash Earnings >$3.6B Annually Organic Growth High priority Focused on operational investment Deeper client relationships Acquisitions Selective acquisitions to support strategic priorities Consistent with defined risk appetite Return to Shareholders Dividend payout ratio of 40-50% Share repurchase program in place (up to 2% of outstanding) Strong Capital Generation flexibility 13

15 Retail & Business Banking Delivering a better experience for our clients Strategic Objectives: ENHANCING CLIENT EXPERIENCE ACCELERATING PROFITABLE REVENUE GROWTH Our Strategy to Win: MODERN CONVENIENCE BANKING Easy Personalized Flexible Growth Accelerators: STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIPS INNOVATION Foundation continued investment in our people 14

16 Retail & Business Banking: Key Priorities Delivering on consumers preferences for a banking experience that is easy, personalized and flexible KEY PRIORITIES OBJECTIVE 1 Easy Streamline / simplify / automate processes Digitization of information Product & documentation simplification Improve market position 2 Personalized 360 view of client Differentiated experience based on client value and preferences Over-index growth from Mass Affluent and Commercial Banking Differentiated position in market Leadership in Mass Affluent 3 Flexible Drive digital sales growth Enhance self-serve capabilities Channel integration Payments innovation Leadership in emerging channels and banking innovation 15

17 Retail and Business Banking Making good progress (1) Net Income ($ billions) Deposits ($ billions) Aero ex Aero LTM (2) Q1/15 Loans ($ billions) Loan Loss Ratio (%) Q1/ Q1/15 (1) Presented under IFRS basis. Non-GAAP measures which exclude items of note as referenced in our quarterly Report to Shareholders. (2) Last Twelve Months. 16

18 Wholesale Banking: Key Priorities Developing deep client relationships in Canada, growing execution capabilities in the U.S., and creating innovative solutions for Retail and Wealth clients. 1 Client Leadership in Canada KEY PRIORITIES Continue to develop deep client relationships Focus on eliminating platform gaps Build core Canadian Commerce activities OBJECTIVE Consistent, sustainable earnings 2 Client Capabilities Outside of Canada Extend core business North American energy & infrastructure build out Higher long-term growth & diversification 3 Collaboration & Innovation Across CIBC Enterprise-wide client management Align Private Banking & Corporate contacts Investments in cash management & other deposit gathering initiatives New revenue & relationship opportunities 17

19 Wholesale Banking Making good progress (1) Net Income ($ millions) Efficiency Ratio (%) LTM (2) Q1/15 Average Loans and Acceptances ($ billions) Average Value at Risk ($ millions) Q1/ Q1/15 (1) Presented under IFRS basis. Non-GAAP measures which exclude items of note as referenced in our quarterly Report to Shareholders. (2) Last Twelve Months. 18

20 Wealth Management: Key Priorities Capitalizing on client demand shifts, enhancing client experience, and advancing CIBC s overall growth, diversification and funding objectives. KEY PRIORITIES OBJECTIVE 1 Enhance Client Experience Elevate our integrated Wealth offer Continue fee-based conversion Enhance investment capabilities Improve and differentiate market position 2 Attract New Clients Attract net new High Net Worth clients Grow self-directed business Elevate Asset Management Organic growth 3 Strategic US Acquisitions Grow earnings contributions from 14% to >15% Target US Private Banking, Wealth Management, Asset Management Inorganic growth 19

21 Wealth Management Making good progress (1) Net Income ($ millions) Contribution to CIBC s Earnings (%) LTM (2) (2) LTM Target Asset Under Administration ($ billions) Mutual Funds ($ billions) Q1/ Q1/15 (1) Presented under IFRS basis. Non-GAAP measures which exclude items of note as referenced in our quarterly Report to Shareholders. (2) Last Twelve Months. 20

22 Summary Retail & Business Repositioned to focus on client relationships to accelerate profitable revenue growth and enhance the client experience Wealth Management Targeting 15%+ NIAT contribution in the medium term through organic growth and strategic acquisitions Wholesale Banking De-risked with plans to grow with our clients global needs for lending, advisory services and capital markets products Industry leading Return on Equity, Capital Strength and Dividend Yield Committed to delivering sustainable shareholder value 21

23 Contents Highlights Canadian Economy Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce ( CIBC ) Overview Appendix Canadian Mortgage Market Oil & Gas Exposure 22

24 Beneficial Mortgage Regulation in Canada Default Insurance Under the Bank Act, banks can only advance uninsured mortgages up to an LTV ratio of 80% Borrowers must purchase default insurance if the mortgage has an LTV > 80% Insurance covers the entire outstanding principal amount, up to 18 months accrued interest and, subject to certain caps, any out-of-pocket costs incurred by the lender (e.g. foreclosure expenses, legal fees, maintenance costs, property insurance, etc.) Mortgage default insurance is provided by CMHC and private mortgage insurers (e.g. Genworth) CMHC is the dominant residential mortgage insurance provider in Canada Favorable Legal Environment In most provinces, lenders have robust legal recourse to recoup losses (e.g. garnishing wages for loan deficiency after a loss on sale) Taxation Mortgage interest is generally not tax deductible, which results in an incentive for mortgagors to limit their amount of mortgage debt This combination of factors results in consistently low credit losses on the Canadian banks mortgage books 23

25 Recent Government Action to Strengthen Mortgage Oversight 2014 CMHC announced increase to mortgage insurance premiums effective May 1, 2014 Impact on CIBC (and industry) mortgage growth rates is expected to be limited CMHC will no longer offer mortgage insurance to those buying second homes, selfemployed borrowers without third-party income validation, and developers to finance the construction of new condo buildings Intent to gradually limit insurance on low-ratio mortgages (loan is less than 80% of the value of the property) unless they are part of a CMHC-backed mortgage securitization program. Allocate CMHC portfolio insurance limit equally among all mortgage lenders. Intent to prohibit Government-backed insured mortgages (both low and high ratio) from being used in any non-cmhc sponsored securitization program. Reduce the maximum amortization period to 25 years from 30 years for new government-backed insured mortgages with loan-to-value ratios of more than 80% Lower the maximum amount Canadians can borrow in refinancing their mortgages to 80% from 85% of the value of their homes Limit the Gross Debt Service Ratio to 39% and Total Debt Service Ratio to 44% Withdraw government insurance on home purchases that are $1 million or greater 24

26 Canadian Mortgage Market Differs from U.S. Product Canada Conservative product offerings generally consist of fixed or variable rate option Borrowers qualify based on qualifying posted mortgage rate United States More exotic offerings (e.g. ARMs, IOs) and a greater proportion of mortgages are variable or adjustable rate Borrowers were often qualified using teaser rates Underwriting Prepayment penalties are common Terms usually 5 years or less, renewable at maturity allows reassessment of credit Amortization usually 25 years, but can be up to 30 years Mortgage insurance mandatory if LTV over 80%. Insurance covers full amount Mortgages can be prepaid without penalty 30 year term most common Amortizations usually 30 years, but can be up to 50 years Mortgage insurance often used to cover portion of LTV over 80% Regulation and Taxation Interest is generally not tax deductible, so there is an incentive to take on less mortgage debt Lenders have recourse to both the borrower and the property in most provinces Interest is tax deductible, creating an incentive to take on more mortgage debt Lenders have limited recourse in most jurisdictions 25

27 CIBC s Mortgage Portfolio 67% of CIBC s Canadian residential mortgage portfolio is insured, with 87% of insurance being provided by CMHC The average loan to value of the uninsured portfolio based on January house price estimates is 60% The credit quality of the residential portfolio continues to be high, with a net credit loss of approximately three basis point per annum Condos account for 11% of the total mortgage portfolio Condo developer exposure is 1.5% of the total business and government portfolio Canadian Residential Mortgage Portfolio: $154B Canadian Condo Mortgage: $17.3B Canadian Condo Developer Portfolio: $2.9B Residential Mortgages (includes Condo) Condo Mortgages Condo Developers $2.9B Uninsured 33% Uninsured 32% Undrawn 62% Insured 67% Insured 68% Drawn 38% January 31, 2015 January 31, 2015 January 31,

28 Contents Highlights Canadian Economy Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce ( CIBC ) Overview Appendix Canadian Mortgage Market Oil & Gas Exposure 27

29 Oil & Gas Portfolio Direct Exposure (1) Comments: Downstream 4% Integrated 11% $16.7B of direct exposure (1) ; $6.8B drawn (1) About 80% of direct exposure (1) is to investment grade names Exploration & Production 58% Midstream 18% O&G Services 4% Petroleum Distribution 5% $29.7B of indirect exposure to Alberta (or $12.8B excluding insured mortgages) Loan-to-value (LTV) of uninsured mortgage portfolio in Alberta was 62% Indirect Exposure Outstandings ($MM) Mortgages HELOC Other (2) Insured Uninsured Alberta 16,986 6,576 2,815 3,359 Loan-to-value (LTV) 65% 62% 57% N/A (1) Based on business and government Advanced Internal Rating-Based (AIRB) exposures. See page 27 of the Q1/15 Supplementary Regulatory Capital Disclosure for further details. (2) Comprises unsecured personal lending, credit cards and small business

30 CIBC Contacts Kevin Glass SEVP & Chief Financial Officer Phone: Peter Levitt EVP & Treasurer, Treasury Phone: Geoff Weiss SVP, Investor Relations Phone: