The Israeli economy: Trends and Outlook. 4th quarter of 2017
|
|
- Letitia Riley
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 The Israeli economy: Trends and Outlook 4th quarter of 2017
2 Outline Factsheet Recent economic trends Fiscal indicators Economic Outlook
3 Israel Factsheet Sources: Israeli CBS, BoI Economy Population Labor Market External Account
4 Israel Factsheet Economy (2017) Population GDP, current Billion USD GDP, current Billion NIS 1,262 GDP per capita, current USD 40,289 Real GDP growth (latest 5 year average, %) 3.5 Average real yearly growth forecast ( , %) 3.1 Labor Market Sources: Israeli CBS, BoI External Account
5 Israel Factsheet Economy (2017) Population (2017) GDP, current Billion USD Total population (Millions) 8.7 GDP, current Billion NIS 1,262 Main working ages (%) 45 GDP per capita, current USD 40,289 Ultra-Orthodox Jews (ages 25-64, %) 7 Arab Minority (ages 25-64, %) 18 Jews (excl. Ultra-Orthodox) and others (ages 25-64, %) 75 Population growth (latest 5 year average, %) 2.0 Real GDP growth (latest 5 year average, %) Average real yearly growth forecast ( , %) Labor Market Sources: Israeli CBS, BoI External Account
6 Israel Factsheet Population (2017) Economy (2017) GDP, current Billion USD Total population (Millions) 8.7 GDP, current Billion NIS 1,262 Main working ages (%) 45 GDP per capita, current USD 40,289 Ultra-Orthodox Jews (ages 25-64, %) 7 Arab Minority (ages 25-64, %) 18 Jews (excl. Ultra-Orthodox) and others (ages 25-64, %) 75 Population growth (latest 5 year average, %) 2.0 Real GDP growth (latest 5 year average, %) Average real yearly growth forecast ( , %) Labor Market (2017) External Account Participation rate (ages 15+, %) 64.0 Participation rate (ages 25-64, %) 80.0 Unemployment rate (ages 15+, %) 4.2 Unemployment rate (ages 25-64, %) 3.7 Part-time workers (ages 15+, %) 25.2 Sources: Israeli CBS, BoI
7 Israel Factsheet Population (2017) Economy (2017) GDP, current Billion USD Total population (Millions) 8.7 GDP, current Billion NIS 1,262 Main working ages (%) 45 GDP per capita, current USD 40,289 Ultra-Orthodox Jews (ages 25-64, %) 7 Arab Minority (ages 25-64, %) 18 Jews (excl. Ultra-Orthodox) and others (ages 25-64, %) 75 Population growth (latest 5 year average, %) 2.0 Real GDP growth (latest 5 year average, %) Average real yearly growth forecast ( , %) Labor Market (2017) Participation rate (ages 15+, %) External Account (2017) 64.0 Participation rate (ages 25-64, %) 80.0 Unemployment rate (ages 15+, %) 4.2 Unemployment rate (ages 25-64, %) 3.7 Part-time workers (ages 15+, %) 25.2 Sources: Israeli CBS, BoI Exchange rate (NIS per USD) 3.6 Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) 29.1 Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) 27.5
8 Israel Factsheet Main trading partners, 2016 Trade volume in billion current US$ Exports of Goods Imports of Goods Source: CBS 8
9 Israel Factsheet 5% 4.3% 4% Gross domestic spending on R&D (2015) % of GDP 3% 2.4% 2% 1% 0% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: OECD 49.9% Population with higher education % of total, 2016 or latest available data 35%
10 Recent economic trends Local growth rates have moderated, reflected in GDP Mixed trends in exports Labor market reflects full employment Zero bound policy leads to asset prices appreciation
11 Forecasts are continuously revised downwards. Assumption for expansion of world trade includes large safety margin US GDP World Trade %,Growth rates %,Growth rates Gap between current and two years prior forecast Actual data/updated forecast Source: IMF- January 2018 WEO 11
12 Growth rates in recent years are similar to the potential 13% 11% 9% Global Economic Crisis 7% 5% Correction due to large scale car purchases in Q4 The Second Intifada 3.3% 3.9% % 3% 1.1% 1% -1% Source: CBS 12
13 Consumption has led the economic growth in recent years and is expected to contribute to growth in the medium term In 2017, the GDP is 1,262 billion NIS GDP Components: average growth rate for the years % 4.1% 4.0% Public Consumption Investments 23% 21% 4.2% 3.7% 3.3% 3.2% 3.0% 2.0% 2% 1.0% 1.0% Private Consumption 0.0% 55% Source: CBS. The Chief Economist Dept. calculations. 13
14 The output gap is close to zero % 2% 0% -2% -4% - -8% -10% -12% Israel OECD United States 3.0% 2.0% Israel 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% Source: Upper chart OECD, bottom chart - Chief Economist Dept. calculations
15 Structural change in composition of exports: the rise of exports of services Exports of goods and services (Billions ILS) World trade Index (CPB) World trade (RHS) Exports of goods (LHS) As a % exports: As a % exports: % As a % exports: As a % exports: % Exports of services As a % exports: % As a % exports: % 0 Source: CBS, CPB. 0
16 Future growth of services exports depends on further expansion of employment in the high-tech sector Thousands 390 Employees in the high-tech sector 20% 18% 5.0 VC investments in Israel Billions $US 340 High-tech employees (LHS) High-tech employees, 290 as % of business sector employment (RHS) % 12% % 8% *2017- January - November Source: CBS % 2% 0.0 Source: IVC. Local VC Foreign VC
17 The high-tech sector, gas production and the decline in energy prices have contributed to the surplus in the current account 14 14% Current Account Balance In billions of $US and as percentage of GDP 12 12% Billions of $US (LHS) 10 % of GDP (RHS) 10% 8 8% % 2 1.9% 0 0.7% -0.7% % -1.4% -1.5% -2.8% % 4.7% -4.8% -4. * 2017 Three quarters at annual rate Source: CBS. -1.0% 3.9% 3.3% 3.5% 3.4% 2.5% 1.4% % 4% [ ]ערך [ ]ערך 2% 0% -2% -4% - 17
18 Demographic change creates challenge for future growth and productivity Participation Rate Population % change Main labor ages, % 80.7% 64.0% 3.0% % 1.4% 0.4% Total Total population Secular Jewish population Arab minority UltraOrthodox Jews Total Population Ultra-Ortodox Arab minority Jews Work Force Source: CBS, adjusted to immigration. 1
19 Labor market indicators reflect full employment Participation Rate and Unemployment Rate in Israel Age 15 and older 12% 65% [ ]ערך 10% Participation Rate (RHS) 63% 8% 61% Unemployment Rate (LHS) 59% 4.2% 57% 4% Source: CBS.
20 Wages increased significantly since 2014, faster than labor productivity Wages Fixed prices (2011) 9,800 9,600 9,400 9,200 Wage growth between was lower than the growth in labor productivity The increase in wages reflects a high level of employment, correction of previous years and implementation of policy measures (min. wage etc.) 2.8% 2.9% 9,000 8, % 1.1% 0.9% 8,600 Monthly data 8,400 Annual average 8,200 Source: CBS. Minimum wage impact was calculated by the Chief Economist Dept. Average growth rates are based on original data growth is seasonally adjusted and refer to the first eleven months % change in minimum wage % contribution to average wage
21 Fast pace of wage increases was recorded in sectors with low paying jobs, and also in the hi-tech sector Jobs (Thousands) 70 The wage increases in the lowpaying sectors were led by both strength of the labor market and an increase in minimum wages Wages 2017* vs % Wages in the hi-tech sector reflect supply constraint 60 19% 20% 20% % 13% 30 10% 10% 9% 20 9% 8% 8% 10% 9% 10% 10% 8% 10 5% 0-10 Hotel and Management Agriculture Education Restaurant Services Services 0-6,000 Wholesale and Retail 6,000-9,000 * 2017 data based on January November Average Source: CBS. Health, Social Services Construction Transport Real Estate and Postal Services Technical Services 9,000-14,000 Industry Government Financial Services 14,000-18,000 IT 0%
22 The inflation environment remains low and the accommodative monetary policy persists with zero bound interest rates, similarly to many OECD countries 14% Real Interest Rate Nominal Interest Rate Inflation Expectaions 12% 10% 8% 4% 2% 0% -2% Source: Bank of Israel 22
23 Zero bound interest rate environment contributes to appreciation of asset prices 30% Asset prices and real interest rate Jan 2009 = % NASDAQ % % TA % Apartments 140 Sovereign Bonds 70 5% 0% Real interest (RHS) -5% 0 * 2018 January February (except Apartments- until November) Source: CBS, TASE, Chief Economist Department calculations * 23
24 Public and business sectors deleveraging continues, while household debt grows moderately 120% Credit composition as % of GDP 230% 220% 100% 210% 80% 200% 60% 190% 180% 40% 170% 20% 0% Source: BOI, CBS. business sector households housing loans government and municipal authorities 160% 150% Total credit as % of GDP
25 Fiscal Indicators Stabilization in government expenditure Continued decline in Debt/GDP ratio Deficits are still relatively high
26 Reforms reduced the size of the public sector. Since 2009 the share of interest payments and defense expenditure in GDP has leveled 60% General Government Expenditure as % of GDP 50% 50% 50% 50% 9% 40% 9% 8% 49% 48% 49% 49% 48% 4 8% 45% 8% 8% 9% 8% 8% 5% 8% 5% 4% 44% 44% 8% 8% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 42% 41% 41% 7% 4% 30% 20% 10% 7% 3% 3% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 39% 39% 40% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% % 34% 35% 35% 35% 33% 33% 31% 31% 31% 31% 31% 31% 30% 31% 32% 31% 31% 31% 32% Civilian expenditure Source: CBS, Chief Economist Dept. calculations. Interest payments Military expenditure 26
27 Government expenditure of GDP in Israel is compatible with OECD countries while civil government expenditure is relatively low Composition of Government expenditure (2015) as % of GDP 60% 50% 60% 57% 55% 55% 54% 52% 50% 50% 49% 45% 44% 44% 43% 43% 42% 40% 39% 37% 37% 40% 11% 30% 50% 40% 34% 32% 30% 5% 20% 7% 10% 20% 10% 11% 0% 0% Social Welfare * 2014, Latest available data Source: OECD Education Defense Health other government expenditure
28 The downward trend of the government debt to GDP ratio continues 105% Public Debt as % of GDP 100% 97.9% 95% 90% 85% 80% 95.9% % 92.9% 91.3% 90.2% 88.2% % 79.5% 80.2% Global Economic Crisis 74.8% 73.1% 72.2% 71.0% 69.0%68.4% 67.0% 66.0% 63.8% 62.4% 61.1% 75% 70% 65% 60% Source: MoF, CBS, The Chief Economist Dept. calculations. 28
29 Central government deficits have been below the ceiling since 2013 Central government budget deficit as % of GDP 7% Central Government 6.0% Ceiling 5.5% 5% 4.7% 4.8% 4% 3.9% 3% 3.5% 3.3% 1% 0% Source: CBS, MOF 2.9% [ ]ערך 2.1% 2.0% 2.7% 2.1% 2.1% 1.7% 2.9% 3.1% 3.0% 2% 3.0% 3.1% 2.0% 1.5% 0.9% 0.0% 29
30 Economic Outlook Continued growth, close to potential Growth of wages and employment, low inflation and cheap credit support consumption
31 Structural and cyclical changes shape the world economy Structural changes in developed countries Geopolitical instability Decline in investments Structural changes in developing countries Slowdown in productivity Slow and fragile recovery Decline in FX reserves Increase of public debt Policy change in U.S. Cyclical changes in developed countries Change in the Chinese growth model Decline of commodity prices Leverage in private sector Cyclical changes in developing countries
32 The slowdown in the growth environment reflects structural changes Higher standards of living Development of the hightech Sector The transition to a developed economy requires more emphasis on increased productivity 32 The high-tech sector grew rapidly until Continued growth is contingent upon supply of skilled labor. Fiscal Needs Demography Increase in social and security challenges led to stability in the share of public spending (compared with declining trend) Declining growth rate of the labor force and increased participation of low skilled workers in the labor market have negative effect on productivity Potential growth is close to 3% in the short-medium term
33 Total government income burden (tax, fees and other revenues) is expected to remain stable Government Income Burden (as % of GDP) *Forecast
34 Learn More Visit the Israel Ministry of Finance website for more information: About the Ministry Economic Overview of Israel Ministry of Finance publications and reports Other publications and reports on the Israeli economy Ministry press releases Follow Us on: 34
The Israeli Economy Strong & Stable, A+
The Israeli Economy Strong & Stable, A+ But does not leverage its full potential Dr. Yacov Sheinin, May 2017 Disclaimer This review is intended solely for clients of Economic Models Ltd., and is contingent
More informationThe Israeli Economy Strong & Stable, A+
The Israeli Economy Strong & Stable, A+ But does not leverage its full potential April 23, 2018 Dr. Yacov Sheinin, Dr. Rachel Sheinin Disclaimer This review is intended solely for clients of Economic Models
More informationKarnit Flug: Macroeconomic policy and the performance of the Israeli economy
Karnit Flug: Macroeconomic policy and the performance of the Israeli economy Remarks by Dr Karnit Flug, Governor of the Bank of Israel, to the conference of the Israel Economic Association, Tel Aviv, 18
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK. September, 2017 MINISTRY OF ECONOMY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK September, 2017 MINISTRY OF ECONOMY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT CONTENTS GDP growth... 3 Potential Level of Economic Growth and GDP Gap... 3 Macroeconomic Environment in the Region...
More informationThe Outlook for Israel s Economy in Light of Current Global Developments
The Outlook for Israel s Economy in Light of Current Global Developments Dr. Leonardo Leiderman Professor of Economics, Tel-Aviv University and Chief Economic Advisor, Bank Hapoalim To be presented in
More informationState of Palestine Ministry of Finance. Fiscal Developments & Macroeconomic Performance: Fourth Quarter and Full year 2013 Report
State of Palestine Ministry of Finance Fiscal Developments & Macroeconomic Performance: Fourth Quarter and Full year 2013 Report Macro Macro Fiscal Fiscal Unit Unit Oct February,, 2013 2014 Section 1:
More informationCONSUMPTION TRENDS AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ASIA S CHANGING TRADE. Brian Jackson, Senior Economist,
CONSUMPTION TRENDS AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ASIA S CHANGING TRADE Brian Jackson, Senior Economist, brian.jackson@ihsmarkit.com 1 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. Asia overview 1 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
More informationThe euro area economy: an update Euro Challenge November 2016
The euro area economy: an update Euro Challenge November 2016 Delegation of the European Union to the United States www.euro-challenge.org What this presentation will cover A. Update on the economic situation
More informationModest Economic Growth and Falling GDP Gap
Modest Economic Growth and Falling GDP Gap -. -. U.S. Economic Output (Real GDP - Quarterly Growth Rate).................................... : : : : : : : : : : -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -.
More informationISRAELI ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
EUROPEAN UNION - Delegation to the State of Israel האיחוד האירופי - המשלחת למדינת ישראל األتحاد األوروبي البعثة إلى دولة إسرائيل Trade and Economic Section ISRAELI ECONOMY AT A GLANCE SEPTEMBER 2016 Prepared
More informationJump-Starting Canadian Growth. Aron Gampel, Scotiabank Economics March 15, 2016
Jump-Starting Canadian Growth Aron Gampel, Scotiabank Economics March 15, 216 Persistent Headwinds To Stronger Global Growth Insufficient Aggregate Demand Reinforced By Structural And Cyclical Factors
More information1H 2014 Earnings Review
1H 2014 Earnings Review 1 The information contained in this presentation 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. has been prepared by Bank Leumi le-israel B.M. (the Bank ); is provided to you solely for your information and
More informationVilyna SISA-AD Visiting Scholar Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan. September
Vilyna SISA-AD Visiting Scholar Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan September 28. 2018 I. Introduction Outline II. Literature Reviews III. The Lao Economy IV. Empirical Findings and Assessment
More informationRussian Federation. Short-term Outlook and Long-term Challenges. June 2017 IMF MOSCOW OFFICE
Russian Federation Short-term Outlook and Long-term Challenges IMF MOSCOW OFFICE June 2017 1 Russia stabilized in 2016 after External Shocks Lower net financial outflows together with higher oil prices
More informationKEY CHALLENGES FOR SUSTAINING GROWTH AND COMPETITIVENESS IN SEE
KEY CHALLENGES FOR SUSTAINING GROWTH AND COMPETITIVENESS IN SEE GLOBAL TRENDS Accelerating growth in advanced economies (US, UK, Eurozone) vs. Slowdown in almost all emerging markets Downward revisions
More informationNdiame Diop, Lead Economist & Economic Advisor World Bank Indonesia BKPM, December 16, 2013
Ndiame Diop, Lead Economist & Economic Advisor World Bank Indonesia BKPM, December 16, 2013 Overview of recent economic developments Framing the policy choices for the current account and growth in 2014
More informationIrish economy: Outlook
Irish economy: Outlook 218-219 Terry Quinn, IEA, September 24 th 218 Terry Quinn Irish Economic Analysis Division Overview Economy continues to expand at a robust pace, in its 6 th year of recovery GDP
More informationStrengths (+) and weaknesses ( )
Country Report Australia Country Report Marcel Weernink Economic growth in Australia decelerates due to lower mining investments. The outlook depends heavily on demand from China for its commodities and
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 23 November 2017 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR ISRAEL
GLOBAL ECONOMY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR ISRAEL Aaron Institute for Economic Policy Annual Conference May 4, 217 Craig Beaumont, European Department, IMF Outline World economic outlook (WEO) Broader trends
More informationNATIONAL BANK OF SERBIA. Speech at the presentation of the Inflation Report May 2013
NATIONAL BANK OF SERBIA Speech at the presentation of the Inflation Report May 13 Belgrade, May 13 1 Central and East European countries European Union Euro area Germany Italy France USA Ladies and gentlemen,
More information2.10 PROJECTIONS. Macroeconomic scenario for Italy (percentage changes on previous year, unless otherwise indicated)
. PROJECTIONS The projections for growth and inflation presented in this Economic Bulletin point to a strengthening of the economic recovery in Italy (Table ), based on the assumption that the weaker stimulus
More informationAndersons Professor of International Trade Department of Agricultural, Environmental & Development Economics Ohio State University
Macroeconomic Outlook Ian Sheldon Andersons Professor of International Trade sheldon.1@osu.edu Department of Agricultural, Environmental & Development Economics Ohio State University Extension Global economic
More informationMACROECONOMIC FORECAST
MACROECONOMIC FORECAST Autumn 2017 Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Bulgaria The Autumn macroeconomic forecast of the Ministry of Finance takes into account better performance of the Bulgarian economy
More informationConsensus Forecast 2010 and 2011
Consensus Forecast 2010 and 2011 Seventeenth Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium Detroit, Michigan June 4, 2010 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Review
More information2018 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF ISRAEL. Towards a more inclusive society
2018 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF ISRAEL Towards a more inclusive society Jerusalem, 11 March 2018 http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-israel.htm @OECDeconomy @OECD Growth has been strong GDP index,
More informationThe main assumptions underlying the scenario are as follows (see the table):
. PROJECTIONS The projections for the Italian economy presented in this Economic Bulletin update those prepared as part of the Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, which were based on information
More informationMongolia Monthly Economic Brief
Mongolia Monthly Economic Brief June 21 Mongolia s economic growth in Q1 21, slowed to.% (y/y), down from % in the previous quarter. Investment sharply contracted by 1.% from the same quarter a year ago,
More informationMalaysia. Real Sector. Economic recovery is gaining momentum.
Malaysia Real Sector Economic recovery is gaining momentum. Malaysia s economy grew 4.7% in the first three quarters of 23, well above the year-earlier pace of 3.7%. GDP rose 5.1% in the third quarter,
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators Poland
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Poland. 6 OCTOBER 2015 NAOKO ISHIHARA ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-(0)20-7577-2179 E naoko.ishihara@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ,
More informationEmerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class
Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to
More informationPRELIMINARY IMPACT OF GLOBAL CRISIS IN INDONESIA
PRELIMINARY IMPACT OF GLOBAL CRISIS IN INDONESIA 1 Preliminary Impacts Up to January 2009, some economic indicators still showed strong results while others started to reflect impact at early stage GDP
More informationEconomic Projections :1
Economic Projections 2017-2020 2018:1 Outlook for the Maltese economy Economic projections 2017-2020 The Central Bank s latest economic projections foresee economic growth over the coming three years to
More informationChapter 2 GDP, Uses and the Principal Industries
Chapter 2 GDP, Uses and the Principal Industries GDP grew 4.7 percent in 2011, while unemployment fell to a historic low. Growth moderated during the year, following the slowdown in demand. In contrast
More informationProjections for the Portuguese Economy:
Projections for the Portuguese Economy: 2018-2020 March 2018 BANCO DE PORTUGAL E U R O S Y S T E M BANCO DE EUROSYSTEM PORTUGAL Projections for the portuguese economy: 2018-20 Continued expansion of economic
More information1. Macroeconomic Highlights
1. Macroeconomic Highlights ht Macroeconomic Highlights Resilient growth over the last 2 years, despite the global economic slowdown Banking industry robust with high level of CAR and low NPLN. In 2008
More information2 Macroeconomic Scenario
The macroeconomic scenario was conceived as realistic and conservative with an effort to balance out the positive and negative risks of economic development..1 The World Economy and Technical Assumptions
More informationINDONESIA ECONOMIC QUARTERLY MARCH 2013
INDONESIA ECONOMIC QUARTERLY MARCH 213 PRESSURES MOUNTING Jim Brumby, PREM Sector Manager & Lead Economist Paramadina Public Policy Institute, March 213 www.worldbank.org/id MARCH 213 IEQ LAUNCH PRESENTATION
More informationLeumi Economic Weekly November 30, 2016
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Leumi Economic Weekly November 30, 2016 The composite
More informationMonetary Policy as the Economy Approaches the Fed s Dual Mandate
EMBARGOED UNTIL Wednesday, February 15, 2017 at 1:10 P.M., U.S. Eastern Time OR UPON DELIVERY Monetary Policy as the Economy Approaches the Fed s Dual Mandate Eric S. Rosengren President & Chief Executive
More informationOntario Economic Accounts
SECOND QUARTER OF 2017 April, May, June Ontario Economic Accounts ONTARIO MINISTRY OF FINANCE Table of Contents ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS Highlights 1 Ontario s Economy Continues to Grow Expenditure Details 2
More informationEconomic activity gathers pace
Produced by the Economic Research Unit October 2014 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Economic activity gathers pace Positive data flow Recovery broadening out GDP growth revised up to
More informationWelfare Nonprofits in Israel: A Comprehensive Overview
1 Executive Summary Welfare Nonprofits in Israel: A Comprehensive Overview Shavit Madhala, Michal Almog-Bar, and John Gal* Full research study published in July 2018 Civil society organizations (or nonprofit
More informationIndonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges
Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27
More informationInflation Report. January March 2013
January March 2013 May 8, 2013 Outline 1 External Conditions 2 Economic Activity in Mexico 3 Monetary Policy and Inflation Determinants 4 Forecasts and Balance of Risks 2 External Conditions Global Environment
More informationSUMMARY OF MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
SUMMARY OF MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS FEBRUARY 2018 2 Summary of macroeconomic developments, February 2018 Forecasts for global economic developments over the medium term are optimistic. In its January
More informationPalestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) Press report of economic forecasts for 2018
Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) Press report of economic forecasts for Ola Awad, President of the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS), presented The performance of the Palestinian
More informationThe Economic Outlook of Taiwan
The Economic Outlook of Taiwan by Ray Yeutien Chou and An-Chi Wu The Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei October 2017 1 Prepared for Project LINK 2017 Fall Meeting, Geneva, Oct. 3-5, 2017 2
More informationNATIONAL BANK OF SERBIA. Speech at the presentation of the Inflation Report November 2017
NATIONAL BANK OF SERBIA Speech at the presentation of the Inflation Report November Dr Ana Ivković, General Manager Directorate for Economic Research and Statistics Belgrade, November Ladies and gentlemen,
More informationThai Economy in Q1/2014 and the Outlook for 2014
Press Release 19 th May 2014 1 Thai Economy in Q1/2014 and the Outlook for 2014 Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) 2 Thai Economic Performance in Q1/2014 GDP Growth (%)
More informationIsrael s Path to Economic and Social Prosperity
Israel s Path to Economic and Social Prosperity Successes and Remaining Obstacles A STORY IN 25 CHARTS KOHELET ECONOMIC FORUM JUNE 2015 SIVAN 5775 Israel s Path to Economic and Social Prosperity Successes
More informationIrish Employment Trends, Competitiveness or Structural Shifts?
Irish Employment Trends, Competitiveness or Structural Shifts? NERI (Nevin Economic Research Institute) Dublin & Belfast Dr. Tom McDonnell Tom.mcdonnell@nerinstitute.net Key Economic Trends, (2007-2013)
More informationOutlook for the Texas Economy. Luis Bernardo Torres Ruiz, Ph.D. August 26, 2016
Outlook for the Texas Economy Luis Bernardo Torres Ruiz, Ph.D. August 26, 2016 Research Economist Texas Society of Architects Contents 1. U.S. Economic Outlook 2. Texas Economic Outlook 3. Challenges and
More informationØystein Olsen: The economic outlook
Øystein Olsen: The economic outlook Address by Mr Øystein Olsen, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), to invited foreign embassy representatives, Oslo, 29 March 2011. The address is based
More informationEconomic projections
Economic projections 2017-2020 December 2017 Outlook for the Maltese economy Economic projections 2017-2020 The pace of economic activity in Malta has picked up in 2017. The Central Bank s latest economic
More informationThe sharp accumulation in government debt can t go on forever
The sharp accumulation in government debt can t go on forever Summary: Sovereign debts have increased sharply since the eighties; Global monetary stimulus has created a low interest rate environment but
More informationMalaysia Economic Monitor The Quest for Productivity Growth
Malaysia Economic Monitor The Quest for Productivity Growth 1 Contents RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK External environment Domestic economic developments Outlook THE QUEST FOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. May 8, The Finance Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review May 8, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report Key
More informationThe analysis and outlook of the current macroeconomic situation and macroeconomic policies
The analysis and outlook of the current macroeconomic situation and macroeconomic policies Chief Economist of the Economic Forecast Department of the State Information Centre Wang Yuanhong 2014.05.28 Address:
More informationEconomic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean CHILE. 1. General trends. 2. Economic policy
Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2017 1 CHILE 1. General trends In 2016 the Chilean economy grew at a slower rate (1.6%) than in 2015 (2.3%), as the drop in investment and exports outweighed
More informationMONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE STATEMENT FOR THIRD QUARTER Governor s Presentation to the Media. 16 th November, 2016
1 MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE STATEMENT FOR THIRD QUARTER 2016 Governor s Presentation to the Media 16 th November, 2016 INTRODUCTION 2 This presentation is structured as follows: 1. Decision of the Monetary
More informationWeekly Macroeconomic Review
20/12/2011 Weekly Macroeconomic Review Expectations derived from the capital market Our forecast Inflation in the coming months Future cumulative inflation next 12 CPIs (through November 2012 CPI) Inflation
More informationECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR HONG KONG IN Win Lin Chou, ACE Centre for Business and Economic Research, Hong Kong
ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR HONG KONG IN 2016-17 Win Lin Chou, ACE Centre for Business and Economic Research, Hong Kong I. The Current Trends Real gross domestic product (GDP) in Hong Kong increased 1.7 percent
More informationZambia s Economic Outlook
Zambia s Economic Outlook F R A N C I S C H I P I M O D I R E C T O R E C O N O M I C S B A N K O F Z A M B I A Z A M B I A I N V E S T M E N T C O N F E R E N C E N O V E M B E R 4, 2 0 1 5 L O N D O
More informationRevision of macroeconomic forecasts - November Dimitar Bogov Governor
Revision of macroeconomic forecasts - November 2017 - Dimitar Bogov Governor 2 November 2017 Contents : Change in risks between the two forecasts External assumptions Macroeconomic scenario for 2017-2019
More informationNATIONAL BANK OF SERBIA. Speech at the presentation of the Inflation Report May Dr Jorgovanka Tabaković, Governor
NATIONAL BANK OF SERBIA Speech at the presentation of the Inflation Report May Dr Jorgovanka Tabaković, Governor Belgrade, May Ladies and gentlemen, representatives of the press, dear colleagues, Welcome
More informationResearch Report on Belarus
Research Report on Belarus 18 January 219 Responsible Expert: Vladimir Gorchakov Rating Associate For further information contact: Rating-Agentur Expert RA GmbH Walter-Kolb-Strasse 9-11, 694 Frankfurt
More informationWhat is the global economic outlook?
The outlook What is the global economic outlook? Paul van den Noord Counselor to the Chief Economist The outlook Real GDP growth, in per cent United States.... Euro area. -. -.. Japan -.... Total OECD....
More informationEurope Outlook. Third Quarter 2015
Europe Outlook Third Quarter 2015 Main messages 1 2 3 4 5 Moderation of global growth and slowdown in emerging economies, with downside risks The recovery continues in the eurozone, but still marked by
More informationGlobal Economics Monthly Review
Global Economics Monthly Review January 8 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report 1 Key Issues Global
More information2012 Economic Outlook. Marney Cox Chief Economist San Diego Association of Governments December 15, 2011
2012 Economic Outlook Marney Cox Chief Economist San Diego Association of Governments December 15, 2011 Three Trends to Watch Job Growth Consumption Expenditures Disposable Income Growth US Payroll Jobs
More informationExecutive summary WORLD EMPLOYMENT SOCIAL OUTLOOK
Executive summary WORLD EMPLOYMENT SOCIAL OUTLOOK TRENDS 2018 Global economic growth has rebounded and is expected to remain stable but low Global economic growth increased to 3.6 per cent in 2017, after
More informationSome Perspectives on Malaysian
Some Perspectives on Malaysian Fiscal Deficits and Debt 08 November 2012 Nurhisham Hussein Economist MALAYSIAN RATING CORPORATION BERHAD Clarity and Integrity www.marc.com.my Disclaimer The material contained
More informationMonthly Economic Insight
Monthly Economic Insight Prepared by : TMB Analytics Date: 22 February 2018 Executive Summary Synchronized global economic growth continued to brighten global economic outlook and global trade outlook.
More informationEconomic Survey December 2006 English Summary
Economic Survey December English Summary. Short term outlook Reaching an annualized growth rate of.5 per cent in the first half of, GDP growth in Denmark has turned out considerably stronger than expected
More informationEconomic Projections :3
Economic Projections 2018-2020 2018:3 Outlook for the Maltese economy Economic projections 2018-2020 The Central Bank s latest projections foresee economic growth over the coming three years to remain
More informationSwitzerland Economic Update QNB Group. September 2014
Switzerland Economic Update QNB Group September 14 Switzerland Overview Switzerland s efficient capital markets, highly skilled human capital and low corporate tax rates make it the world's most competitive
More informationThe Argentine Economy in the year 2006
The Argentine Economy in the year 2006 ECONOMIC REPORT Year 2006 1. The Current Recovery from a Historical Perspective The Argentine economy has completed another year of significant growth with an 8.5%
More informationMONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE STATEMENT FOR FIRST QUARTER Governor s Presentation to the Media. 16 th May, 2018
1 MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE STATEMENT FOR FIRST QUARTER 2018 Governor s Presentation to the Media 16 th May, 2018 INTRODUCTION 2 The presentation is structured as follows: 1. Decision of the Monetary Policy
More informationDecember 2017 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area 1
December 2017 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area 1 The economic expansion in the euro area is projected to remain robust, with growth stronger than previously expected and significantly
More informationSantander s Economic Report
Inicio Santander s Economic Report Research Second quarter 2016 WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK > In US, better prospects for employment and activity, coupled with a rise in inflation, portend an imminent rise
More informationNominal income of USD 20,000, Living standard of USD 30,000 Competitive edge analysis of Kaeseong Industrial Complex
HMER 2012-04 Ⅰ. Recent Global & Domestic Economic Trends Ⅱ. Economic Issues facing Korea Nominal income of USD 20,000, Living standard of USD 30,000 Ⅲ. North Korean Issues Competitive edge analysis of
More informationFrom Crisis to Recovery: The Challenges ahead for the European Economy
From Crisis to Recovery: The Challenges ahead for the European Economy Moreno Bertoldi Head of Unit Countries of the G-20, IMF, G-groups European Commission COMEXI 24 June 2014 PART I: Current Economic
More informationKey developments and outlook
1/17 Key developments and outlook Economic growths in 2016 and 2017 remain close to the previous assessment. Better-than-expected merchandise exports and private consumption compensate for weaker-than-expected
More informationEconomic Survey August 2006 English Summary
Economic Survey August English Summary. Short term outlook In several respects, the upswing in the Danish economy is stronger than expected in the May survey: private sector employment has increased strongly,
More informationFiscal Policy in Japan
Fiscal Policy in Japan - Issues and Future Directions- June 10th, 2015 Ministry of Finance General Government Gross Debt and Financial Balances (International Comparison) (%) 240 210 General Government
More informationWeekly Macroeconomic Review
16/10/2012 Weekly Macroeconomic Review Expectations derived from the capital market Our forecast Inflation in the coming months Inflation through September 2013 CPI (average annual rate) Inflation through
More informationIsrael through the Global Crisis: Do Innovations Help?
Israel through the Global Crisis: Do Innovations Help? Prof. Zvi Eckstein Dean, School of Economics, IDC Herzliya 24 March 2014 1 Outline The Macro Picture Innovations and Start Ups 2 Growth Rates - Israel,
More informationNew Zealand Economic Chart Pack. Key New Zealand Macroeconomic and Financial Market Graphs
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack Key New Zealand Macroeconomic and Financial Market Graphs January New Zealand Economic Chart Pack January Page Contents Aggregate Output... Prices... Households... Business...
More informationSlovak Macroeconomic Outlook
Slovak Macroeconomic Outlook CFA society 29 March 2017 Jan Toth Deputy Governor National Bank of Slovakia Summary Acceleration of GDP growth in the medium-term due to start of the new productions in the
More informationan eye on east asia and pacific
67887 East Asia and Pacific Economic Management and Poverty Reduction an eye on east asia and pacific 7 by Ardo Hansson and Louis Kuijs The Role of China for Regional Prosperity China s global and regional
More informationMID-TERM REVIEW OF THE 2016 MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
MID-TERM REVIEW OF THE 1 MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 The Mid-Term Review (MTR) of the 1 Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) examines price developments and the underlying causal factors in
More informationSummary and Economic Outlook
Pentti Vartia Managing director Pasi Sorjonen Head of forecasting group 1.1 Summary The world economy started to recover rapidly at the start of the year. Despite this rebound in activity, near-term growth
More informationEconomic Review - Third Quarter 2015
Economic Review - Third Quarter 2015 The state of the general economy can help or hinder a business prospects and therefore has a direct impact on the value of a business. The economic recovery following
More informationIndonesia. Real Sector. The economy grew 3.7% in the first three quarters.
Indonesia Real Sector The economy grew 3.7% in the first three quarters. The economy grew in a 3.5-4% range in each of the first three quarters, in spite of adverse effects from the 22 Bali bombing, the
More informationThe Irish Economic Update Very Robust Growth
The Irish Economic Update Very Robust Growth September 15 Oliver Mangan Chief Economist AIB April 13 aibeconomicresearch.com 1 Irish recovery gains very strong momentum Irish economy boomed from 1993 to
More informationEconomic ProjEctions for
Economic Projections for 2016-2018 ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR 2016-2018 Outlook for the Maltese economy 1 Economic growth is expected to ease Following three years of strong expansion, the Bank s latest
More informationAn overview of the middle class in Israel. Dr. Karnit Flug Deputy Governor of the Bank of Israel March 2012
An overview of the middle class in Israel Dr. Karnit Flug Deputy Governor of the Bank of Israel March 2012 Middle class: a definition Accepted definition: The population group consisting of households
More informationEuro & talous 1/2011. Monetary policy and the global economy Finland s economic outlook
Euro & talous 1/211 Monetary policy and the global economy Finland s economic outlook Governor Erkki Liikanen 24 March 211 1 Topics Topical issues Global economic forecast Finland s economic outlook 211
More informationPhilipp Hildebrand: Overview of the Swiss and global economy
Philipp Hildebrand: Overview of the Swiss and global economy Introductory remarks by Mr Philipp Hildebrand, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the half-yearly media news conference,
More information