Assumption Matrix. Electric System Planning Working Group April 5, 2012 Rensselaer, N.Y.

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1 2012 RNA Assumption Matrix Howard Tarler Manager, Long Term Planning New York Independent System Operator Electric System Planning Working Group April 5, 2012 Rensselaer, N.Y New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY

2 Base Case Lock down April 5, 2012 RESOURCE ADEQUACY Parameter Peak Load Oct 1, 2011 Forecast: 33,335 MW for NYCA, 11,607 MW for zone J, and 5521 for zone K Update per 2012 Gold Book Section I Load Shape Model 2002 Load Shape 2002 Load Shape Load Uncertainty Model Zonal model updated to reflect current data. Same Solar Resource Modeling Wind Resource Modeling Forecast of 38.5 MW of total solar capacity. See Attachment B-2 Final%20Report.pdf (1,648 MW) Derived from hourly wind data resulting in an average Summer Peak Hour availability of approximately 11%. See Attachment B-1 Final%20Report.pdf p 2012 Gold Book Section III (Wholesale only) Update based on 2012 Gold Book Section III and RNA Inclusion Rules Wind Shape Model 2002 Wind Generation Profile Existing Generating Unit Updated DMNC test values. Use the minimum of Capacities DMNC or CRIS values. Proposed New Units Those listed on Attachment B. Final%20Report.pdf 2002 Wind Generation Profile Updated DMNC test values. Use the minimum of DMNC or CRIS values from 2012 Gold Book 2012 Gold Book Section IV* 1 Assumption Matrix approved by NYSRC Executive Committee on 7/8/11 is used as the starting point for the 2012 RNA Model 2012 New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 2

3 Parameter Base Case Lock down April 5, inal%20report.pdf Retirements** MW of retirements and mothballing as listed in Attachment B Gold Book Section IV* inal%20report.pdf p Forced & Partial Outage 5-year ( ) GADS data. (Those units with less 5-year ( ) GADS data. (Those units with less than Rates than five years data could use available representative five years data could use available representative data.) data.) Planned Outages Based on schedules received by NYISO & adjusted for history. Based on schedules received by NYISO & adjusted for history Summer Maintenance Use nominal value of 50 MW after reviewing last year s data. Use nominal value of 50 MW after reviewing last year s data Combustion Turbines Derate based on provided temperature correction Ambient Derate curves. De-rate based on provided temperature correction curves Environmental Impacts No impacts for base case Gold Book Section IV (Environmental impacts that affect a unit s DMNC) Non-NYPA Hydro 45% derating. Capacity Modeling 45% de-rating Special Case Resources 2192 MW (Jul 12) based on registrations and NYISO Constant MW amount throughout ten years as reported in growth rate forecast. Monthly variation based on 2012 Gold Book Section V historical experience. EDRP Resources 148 MW registered; modeled as 95 MW in July and Aug and proportional to monthly peak load in other months. Limit to 5 calls per month. Constant MW amount throughout ten years as reported in 2012 Gold Book Section I 2012 New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 3

4 Parameter External Capacity - Purchases Base Case Lock down April 5, 2012 Grandfathered amounts of 50 MW from NE, 1080 MW from PJM and 1,090 MW from Quebec. All contracts modeled as equivalent contracts. Use most recent detailed data that NYISO has available to support the net values as reported in the 2012 Gold Book Capacity - Sales Long term firm sales of 303 MW (nominal value). Use most recent detailed data that NYISO has available to support the net values as reported in the 2012 Gold Book Capacity Wheelsthrough None modeled. A sensitivity case will be run. None modeled EOPs (other than SCR 735 MW of non-scr/edrp MWs. and EDRP) 735 MW of non-scr/edrp MWs Interface Limits All changes viewed and commented on by TPAS. Also Based on RNA specific Transmission Adequacy Analysis New Transmission None Identified. From 2012 Gold Book per RNA inclusion rules Transmission Cable Forced Outage Rate All existing Cable EFORs updated on LI and NYC to reflect 5 year history. All existing Cable EFORs updated on LI and NYC to reflect 5 year history Unforced Capacity No new projected UDRs Deliverability Rights Modeled as in 2010 RNA (UDR) Model Version GE MARS Version 3.12 GE MARS Version 3.14 Outside World Area Single Area representations for and. Four zones Update from latest NPCC CP8 model for 2012 Summer Models modeled for PJM. Thirteen zones modeled for. Assessment Reserve Sharing between Areas All NPCC Control Areas have indicated that they will share reserves equally among all. All NPCC Control Areas have indicated that they will share reserves equally among all Other Add HTP at firm withdrawal rights of 320 MW Use same transition rate as Neptune Cable 2012 New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 4

5 * Detailed back-up information will be presented in 2012 RNA Report in the same manner as presented in the 2010 RNA Report **Treatment of Retired/Mothballed/Protectively Laid up units for purposes of RNA modeling: Any generating units that, pursuant to the PSC Orders in Case 05-E-0889, have provided a notice of Retirement, Mothball, protective layup, etc., by the study lock-down date, will be assumed to not be available for the period of the RNA study beginning once the applicable PSC notice period runs. Note: If a Reliability Need is identified, a noticed generating unit can be offered as a market-based or alternate regulated solution, or as a TO GAP solution, in the CRP process, and its prospective return to service would be subject to tracking by NYISO Planning New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 5

6 Transmission Security / Fault Current ** Parameter Peak Load NYCA baseline coincident summer peak forecast Load model ConEd: voltage varying Rest of NYCA: constant power System representation Per updates received through Databank process (Subject to RNA base case inclusion rules) Inter-area interchange Consistent with ERAG MMWG interchange schedules schedule Inter-area controllable tie Consistent with applicable tariffs and known firm schedules contracts or rights In-city series reactors Consistent with ConEdison operating protocol (All series reactors in-service for summer) SVCs, FACTS Set at zero pre-contingency; allowed to adjust postcontingency Transformer & PAR taps Taps allowed to adjust pre-contingency; fixed postcontingency Switched shunts Allowed to adjust pre-contingency; fixed postcontingency Fault current analysis Per Fault Current Assessment Guideline settings Model Version Powerflow: PSS/E v32.1.1, PSS/MUST v10.2, TARA v610 Dynamics: PSS/E v Short Circuit: ASPEN v Goldbook NYISO RAD Manual,, MMWG, ConEd protocol NYISO T&D Manual NYISO Fault Current Assessment Guideline **Treatment of Retired/Mothballed/Protectively Laid up units for purpose of RNA modeling: Any generating units that, pursuant to the PSC Orders in Case 05-E-0889, have provided a notice of Retirement, Mothball, protective layup, etc., by the study lock-down date, will be assumed to not be available for the period of the RNA study beginning once the applicable PSC notice period runs. Note : If a Reliability Need is identified, a noticed generating unit can be offered as a market-based or alternate regulated solution, or as a TO GAP solution, in the CRP process, and its prospective return to service would be subject to tracking by NYISO Planning New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 6

planning for the state s electric power system, and advancing the technological infrastructure of the electric system serving

7 The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) is a not-for-profit corporation responsible for operating the state s bulk electricity grid, administering New York s competitive wholesale electricity markets, conducting comprehensive long-term planning for the state s electric power system, and advancing the technological infrastructure of the electric system serving the Empire State New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 7

1. MARS Base Case Model Assumptions

1. MARS Base Case Model Assumptions 1.1 Load s Peak Load Load Shape Load Forecast Uncertainty 2014 IRM Model Assumptions October 1, 2013 forecast NYCA: 33,655 MW NYC: 11,740 MW Long Island 5,461 MW Multiple