Schafer Cullen Capital Management Emerging Markets High Dividend Strategy 1 st Quarter Performance Information As of March 31, 2016
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1 Schafer Cullen Capital Management Emerging Markets High Dividend Strategy 1 st Quarter 2016 Performance Information As of March 31, 2016 Annualized Returns (%) Since Q1 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year Inception Performance as of 3/31/ /31/05 Emerging High Dividend (gross) Emerging High Dividend (net) Emerging Markets Index ishares Emerging Markets ETF The Emerging Markets High Dividend Composite returned 5.5% (net of fees) in the 1 st quarter versus 5.7% for the Emerging Markets Index. The best performing countries that we had exposure to in the quarter were Brazil, Turkey and Thailand while Greece, China/ HK and India were the worst performing. Our greater exposure relative to the EM Index to Turkey and Thailand and our lesser exposure to China/ HK helped performance. Our greater exposure to Greece and India and our lesser exposure to Brazil hurt relative performance. Below are the 1 st quarter local currency and U.S. dollar returns of regional benchmarks that are pertinent to our exposure: Regional Performance Performance as of 3/31/2016 Q1 YTD Local USD Local USD EM EM ASIA EMEA EM LATAM The best performing currencies that we had exposure to in the quarter were the Brazilian Real, Malaysian Ringgit and Polish Zloty while the worst performing currencies were the Indian Rupee, Hong Kong Dollar and Mexican Peso. On a relative basis, our greater exposure to the Malaysian Ringgit and Polish Zloty and our lesser exposure to the Hong Kong Dollar aided performance. However, our greater exposure to the Indian Rupee and Mexican Peso and our lesser exposure to the Brazilian Real hurt relative performance. In general, emerging market currencies strengthened versus the U.S. dollar during the quarter. The top performing sectors in the Emerging Markets index in the quarter were Materials, Energy and Utilities while Health Care, REITs and Consumer Discretionary were the worst performing sectors. Performance relative to the benchmark was aided by our greater exposure to Telecommunication Services and our lesser exposure to Information Technology. Performance was hurt by our greater exposure to Consumer Discretionary and our lesser exposure to the Materials and Energy sectors. 1 of 5
2 Top performing stocks in the quarter were Telefonica Brasil (Brazil, Telecommunications), Arcelik (Turkey, Consumer Discretionary), Itau Unibanco (Brazil, Financials) and Mobile Telesystems (Russia, Telecommunications). The worst performers were Great Wall Motor (China/ HK, Consumer Discretionary), Ping An Insurance Group (China/ HK, Financials), OPAP (Greece, Consumer Discretionary) and Teva Pharmaceuticals (Israel, Health Care). New purchases in the quarter were made in shares of XTEP International Holdings (China/ HK, Consumer Discretionary) and Semen Indonesia Persero (Indonesia, Materials). Sales in the quarter were made in shares of Sunny Optical (China/ HK, Technology). Our top five country exposures at the end of the quarter were to China/ HK, Taiwan, India, South Africa and Mexico. We have included summary portfolio exposure information below: Sectors Portfolio Exposure Top 10 Countries Financials ex. REITS China/ HK Consumer Discretionary Taiwan Information Technology India Telecommunication Services South Africa Industrials Mexico REITS Indonesia Consumer Staples Turkey Materials Brazil Energy Russia Health Care Israel Utilities Total Regions Top 10 Holdings Asia Pacific Taiwan Semiconductor 3.5 EMEA AIA Group 3.1 Latin America Bidvest Group 3.0 Terrafina 3.0 Elbit Systems 2.9 ICICI Bank 2.7 Religare Health Trust 2.7 Komercni Banka 2.7 Fibra Uno Administracion 2.6 SAB Miller 2.6 Portfolio Characteristics Price/Earnings Forward Dividend Yield NTM LT DPS Growth LT EPS Growth Average Market Cap ($B) Emerging Markets High Dividend EM Index of 5
3 Market Outlook After weak performance in recent years and a tepid start to the year, Emerging Markets posted strong first quarter gains that have continued in recent weeks. Gains were led by Latin America and Eastern European emerging markets while Asian and African markets lagged in relative performance. Brazil led Latin America higher as a result of rising commodity prices and improving prospects for political change. Russia also benefitted from commodity price trends and the perception that the domestic economy and geopolitical environment were stabilizing albeit at depressed levels. The significant gains in both Brazil and Russia illustrate the pronounced impact that depressed valuations combined with negative sentiment and fund flow trends can have when potential macroeconomic and geopolitical catalysts reverse from negative to positive. The performance of Asian markets was held back by lingering concerns about over-investment in certain areas of the Chinese economy and a lack of progress with reform-related initiatives in India, though many South East Asian markets fared better. Africa remains mired in macroeconomic and geopolitical woes with key markets such as South Africa and Nigeria showing few signs of stabilization. While improved EM performance is clearly welcome by investors, it remains difficult to assess whether recent trends represent just another bear market rally or the start of a prolonged bull market. The good news is that while we do not know when, we are confident that a bull market in EM equities will commence again, as history has shown. Compelling rationales underpin both the bull and bear cases over the near term, but the longer term outlook appears clearly favorable in our view. Favoring the bull case are the attractive valuations of EM stocks on an absolute basis and especially relative to their history, developed market stocks and virtually all bond investment alternatives. Contrarian factors also support the bull case with the prolonged declines in many emerging markets currently surpassing the average declines during previous EM bear markets and thus suggesting that current valuations may discount on-going challenges. Even considering the modest improvement in recent weeks, fund flows and sentiment as a whole remain poor and thus are also supportive of EM equity bulls from a contrarian perspective. Perhaps the largest positive factor is the change in political leadership or increasing potential for it in several emerging markets such as Brazil, South Africa, Argentina, etc. While such change could have a meaningfully positive impact on these markets (since the primary problem they face is poor leadership), realistically this outcome remains unpredictable in nature as changes in leadership may not alleviate the structural problems or the depressed economic conditions that presently permeate these countries. Rounding out the bear case are the declining EM earnings trends and the undeniably excessive build-up of credit seen especially in China. While we acknowledge that these problems exist, we continue to believe that they are manageable over the long-term, making a hard landing in emerging markets unlikely. Even more importantly, the problems are confined to certain sectors and countries while the rest of the larger EM universe remains attractively valued with good earnings growth prospects, providing active investors with ample investment opportunities. This is particularly true among EM value stocks which trade at their largest discount to EM growth stocks in over a decade: 3 of 5
4 Relative Performance of Value vs. Growth in Emerging Markets Source: Bloomberg, Research, March 31, 2016 Changes in portfolio exposure reflect the significant opportunity in deep-value EM stocks as seen in the chart above. The low multiples of many of these stocks has been the result of weak earnings trends, massively declining currencies and/or poor corporate governance practices, often precipitated by weakening geopolitical and macro-economic conditions. Examples of such negative shocks include sanctions imposed against Russia, the collapse of energy and commodity prices, poor political leadership in Brazil, politically stalled reform-related initiatives, etc. While we are still unwilling to invest in companies that are cheap due to their poor governance practices, our investable universe has expanded to include more deep-value opportunities, where current valuations likely discount the aforementioned problems since the conditions that precipitated them are stabilizing or even improving. We are actively taking advantage of such opportunities as, for example, many recent purchases have been made at single digit P/E valuation multiples and with dividend yields well over 5%. Despite the fact that these new portfolio additions are often in relatively distressed EM markets, our focus on economic moats, non-cyclical businesses, company-specific catalysts, outstanding dividend attributes and corporate governance practices has enabled us to invest in companies that are fairly defensive in nature, especially relative to their country peers. While the macroeconomic and geopolitical environments remain uncertain enough to only selectively embrace more risk, we are nonetheless convinced that the valuations and long-term upside potential of these recent investments are quite compelling. Thank you for your continued support. Feel free to reach out to us if you have any questions. Best Regards, Rahul Sharma Executive Director / Portfolio Manager Schafer Cullen Capital Management 4 of 5
5 Disclosure: Schafer Cullen Capital Management ( or the Adviser ) is an independent investment advisor registered under the Investment Advisers Act of This information should not be used as the primary basis for any investment decision nor should it be considered as advice to meet your particular investment needs. The portfolio securities and sector weights may change at any time at the discretion of the Adviser. It should not be assumed that any security transactions, holdings or sectors discussed were or will be profitable, or that future recommendations or decisions will be profitable or equal the investment performance discussed herein. Investing in equity securities is speculative and involves substantial risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Market conditions can vary widely over time and can result in a loss of portfolio value. Individual account performance results will vary and will not match that of the composite or model. This variance depends on factors such as market conditions at the time of investment, and / or investment restrictions imposed by a client which may cause an account to either outperform or underperform the composite or model s performance. A list of all recommendations made by within the immediately preceding period of not less than one year is available upon request. The strategy depicted in this report has been managed in accordance with the investment objectives of the strategy as determined by the Adviser. The Adviser has selected benchmarks, which in their opinion closely resemble the style of the securities held in the composite or model portfolio of the strategy (e.g. large cap value, small cap value, international, etc.). The securities held in the composite or model are actively managed while the benchmark index is not. Investors should be aware that the Adviser makes no attempt to match the portfolio securities, or the security weightings of the benchmark. The composite or model s performance will be affected greater by the price movements of individual securities as the composite or model is more concentrated, generally less than 100 securities, while a comparative benchmark will generally have between 500 and 2,500 securities where individual security price movements have a lesser affect. An individual cannot invest directly in an index. In the case where this report displays model results, please be aware that such results do not represent actual trading and that results may not reflect the impact that material economic and market factors might have had on the Adviser's decisionmaking if the Adviser were actually managing clients' money. Model and actual results reflect the deduction of advisory fees, brokerage or other commissions, and any other expenses that a client would have paid or actually paid (Net of Fee performance) and reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. Schafer Cullen Capital Management, Inc. makes no representation that the use of this material can in and of itself be used to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them; makes no representation, either directly or indirectly, that any graph, chart, formula or other device being offered herein will assist any person in making their own decisions as to which securities to buy, sell, or when to buy or sell them. All opinions expressed constitute Schafer Cullen Capital Management s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. 5 of 5
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