lifetime mortgages - An essential ingredient in DB de-risking transactions
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1 lifetime mortgages - An essential ingredient in DB de-risking transactions 18 April Bulk Annuities seminar
2 Introduction & agenda Lifetime mortgage ("LTMs") market and key drivers Why invest in LTMs? o attractive risk-adjusted yields o long duration assets suitable for matching David Richardson Deputy Group CEO & MD UK Corporate Business The economics of NNEG (no negative equity guarantee) Differentiation via medical underwriting offering Conclusion, Q&A 2018 RBC annuities seminar 2
3 A strong starting point in LTM Just expects a 6.6bn market by 2021, a CAGR of 21% from the 3.1bn market in 2017 LTM market forecast ( m) m 6, ,073 26% CAGR 1,379 1,602 2,149 3,057 21% CAGR Lump sum mortgage sales New drawdown mortgages - initial advance Existing drawdown mortgages - further advance Forecast Changing attitudes towards using housing equity Peace of mind from No Negative Equity Guarantee ( NNEG ) feature in products Favourable demographics Increased housing wealth amongst retirees Maturity of Interest Only mortgages Source: Equity Release Council, Just internal analysis Growth drivers Move from Defined Benefit to Defined Contribution pensions Retirement Income shortfall Increased advertising spend by providers and distributors Increased distribution capacity 2018 RBC annuities seminar 3
4 LTMs are demand driven and benefit the wider economy Just expects a 6.6bn market by 2021, a CAGR of 21% from the 3.1bn market in 2017 Only 3% of those eligible have thus far accessed LTMs. Overall, 24% of UK homeowners or 3.4m UK households are open to the idea of accessing property wealth in retirement 1 Drawdown lifetime mortgages filling the savings void and also enabling pensioners to keep pension savings invested 37, new lifetime mortgage plans up 34% 29,661 Further advances to existing plans Q2 16 Over 55s accessed 29p of property wealth for every 1 of flexible retirement savings FY2016 ratio rose to 38p, FY 2017 ratio rose to 47p, and in Q the ratio was 56p c.67k customers supported 3.06bn of advances, up 42% January product offerings, up 25% yoy, including inheritance protection on almost half of products, and downsizing protection on 2 in 5 products Source: Equity Release Council - news section and Spring 2018 market report, released 22 March 2018 Note 1: Legal & General Silver Spenders, February 2018, research carried out for L&G Home Finance and CEBR Note 2: Being first-time buyers, remortgagers, homemovers and new or remortgaging buy-to-let borrowers generating 7.1bn of economic activity and supporting 37,100 jobs RBC annuities seminar 4
5 Demographics and housing wealth Number of people (m) age % 19% 20% 22% 24% 24% Profile of UK Interest Only loan book 2013 ( bn) 470bn 42bn 21bn Maturing after 5 years, 91% Borrower <65 at loan maturity, 49% 100%+ LTV (3%) % LTV (10%) 60-80% LTV (25%) % of UK population over age 65 Net housing wealth held by those aged 55+ Age 85 and over 0.2tn Age tn Age tn Age tn 3tn We estimate an existing industry LTM book of 20bn, thus a penetration rate (at 30% LTV) of c2.2% amongst those aged 55+ Maturing in <5 years, 9% Source: Just IO loans outstanding Borrower aged 65+ at loan maturity, 51% IO loans maturing within 5 years 40-60% LTV (26%) 20-40% LTV (25%) <20% LTV (11%) IO loans maturing within 5 years with borrower aged bn addressable market Source: ONS, Wealth and Assets Survey ( ), released 6 March RBC annuities seminar 5
6 Nether Italy Austria Denmark France OECD 34 Canada Germany USA Australia Ireland Japan UK Shift from DB to DC exacerbating retirement income shortfall 85% of schemes (by number) are closed to future accrual or new members Net pension replacement ratio 1 - %, average earners 100% % 80% 80 70% 60% 60 50% 40% 40 30% 20% 20 10% 0% Closed to new members Closed to future accrual Source: PPF purple book 2017 Note 1: OECD Net pension replacement rates by earnings, as of 12 December RBC annuities seminar 6
7 Return per annum Investing in LTMs relative to other asset classes 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Emerging market debt 10 year A / BBB 10 year AAA / AA Commercial mortgages Lifetime mortgage Infrastructure Par gilt curve Social housing Ground rent 0% Source: Illustrative according to Just estimates Typical return: 4-6% depending on initial LTV Cash-flow profile o Roll up mortgages provide one big repayment at maturity o Interest paying mortgages provide regular income o Duration: years Modified duration profile (years) Metric Credit risk: in the form of NNEG, risk reduction via low initial LTV (25-30%) Liquidity: relatively illiquid, structuring required Supply: growing, market up 42% to 3.1bn in RBC annuities seminar 7
8 Cash flows per annum ( m) Why use LTMs for DB? ALM and yield LTMs play a key role in our ALM process iboxx stg corporate bond index Issuers and market value by term Corporate Bonds & Gilts Lifetime Mortgages GIfL Liabilities DB Liabilities Year Source Just analysis No. of Issuers Market value ( bn) 0-10 yrs yrs yrs 30 yrs + Different types of Lifetime mortgages PV cashflow profiles iboxx stg corporate bond index - spread over GBP swaps by term (bps) Years Drawdown Interest Serviced Lump Sum 0-10 yrs yrs yrs 30 yrs + Spread over GBP swaps (bps) Additional term spread 2018 RBC annuities seminar 8
9 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q LTMs The economics of NNEG, 30% initial LTV UK life expectancy from age 70 1 females c.18 years males c.16 years Projected LTV by age and HPI (initial 30% LTV and 5.5% interest) 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 100% LTV at 92 ½ years Impact of NNEG for different HPI growth rates (initial 30% LTV and 5.5% interest) 0% HPI 1% 2% 3% 4% No-Negative Equity Guarantee (NNEG) We guarantee that a borrower s estate will never have to repay more than the value of the house House price inflation of 0% indefinitely would only drive a 100% LTV as our typical 70 year old, initial 30% LTV customer is 92½. At 20% initial LTV, 100% LTV is reached approaching age 100 Nationwide UK house price index: Q Q % 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 250, , , ,000 50, % 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 50-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 0.0% Age at which NNEG materialises Yield if lives to exactly 100 Note 1: Source, CMI 2017, published on 1/3/2018, based on life expectancy data at age RBC annuities seminar 9 Property price ( ) % change per annum
10 Greater London Outer Metropolitan Outer South East East Anglia South West East Midlands West Midlands Yorkshire & Humber North West North Wales Scotland Northern Ireland Outstanding LTV Lifetime mortgages Just s current portfolio LTV breakdown by geography ( m / %) 31 December 2017 A low risk LTM portfolio 1, % 30% 20% 10% 0% Total outstanding of 5.3bn 1 is made up of over 65k loans, average balance 82k Average property-weighted LTV for new business is c.27%, only 0.5% of loans with LTV greater than 75% Self origination and funding to 3 rd parties LTV breakdown by customer age bands ( m) 31 December Total outstanding (LHS) Average of LTV based on total outstanding (RHS) Below <30% 30% ~ 50% 50%+ <1% by value at 50%+ LTV Average LTV across portfolio remains low at 29% NNEG SII allowance is sufficient if property prices immediately fall by c. 20% and never grow again each year, the allowance is released into SII surplus as the risk margin and SCR associated with liabilities unwinds Actual experience: <1bps Note 1: The difference between the total amount outstanding (principal and accrued interest), and the balance sheet amount of 6.8bn is due to the discount rate used to compute fair value RBC annuities seminar 10
11 Continued innovation by Just in our chosen markets Launch of DB Choice proposition November Top-slicing (pre transaction) Pre transaction Medical Underwriting <300 lives or Standard underwriting combined into DB Choice Post transaction >300 lives lives New DB Choice proposition offering a guaranteed dual pricing structure with o o o Choice A lower medically underwritten price (minimises premium), or standard underwritten price (minimises contact with members) Upfront certainty price is not dependent on gathering medical data post transaction, or indeed the outcome of that medical data Value trustees and sponsor can see the value of MU upfront, irrespective of appetite for MU. The sponsor can compare both prices with those of other insurers ahead of transaction Will continue to offer existing suite of 4 pricing solutions on a case by case basis 2018 RBC annuities seminar 11
12 Summary LTMs combined within an optimal asset mix, reinsurance, and medical underwriting where appropriate Illiquid ASSETs Infrastructure LTMs Commercial Real Estate Liquid ASsETS Gilts Cash Corporate credit Improved pricing for sponsors, trustees and EBCs 1 2 Illiquidity premium increases yields Long-term cash flows, very suitable for ALM 3 Secured asset Lifetime mortgages an essential ingredient for DB 4 Utilises our longevity expertise 2018 RBC annuities seminar 12
13 Disclaimer For the purposes of this notice, "document" means this document, any oral presentation, any question and answer session and any written or oral material discussed or distributed by Just Group plc ( Just ) during the presentation. This document has been prepared and issued by and is the sole responsibility of Just. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any securities of Just or any related company nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contractual commitment or investment decision in relation thereto nor does it constitute a recommendation regarding any securities. This document, which speaks as of the date hereof only, is intended to present background information on Just, its business and the industry in which it operates and is not intended to provide complete disclosure upon which an investment decision could be made. The merit and suitability of an investment in Just should be independently evaluated and any person considering such an investment in Just is advised to obtain independent advice as to the legal, tax, accounting, financial, credit and other related advice prior to making an investment. This document and any materials distributed in connection with this document may include certain forward-looking statements, beliefs or opinions, including statements with respect to the business, financial condition and results of operations of Just. These statements, which may contain the words anticipate, believe, intend, estimate, expect and words of similar meaning, reflect the beliefs and expectations of the directors of Just and involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. No representation is made that any of these statements or forecasts will come to pass or that any forecast results will be achieved. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these statements and forecasts. Past performance of Just cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance. Forward-looking statements speak only as at the date of this document and Just expressly disclaim any obligations or undertaking to release any update of, or revisions to, any forward-looking statements in this document. No statement in this document is intended to be a profit forecast. As a result, you are cautioned not to place any undue reliance on such forward-looking statements. To the extent available, the industry, market and competitive position data contained in this document has come from official or third party sources. Third party industry publications, studies and surveys generally state that the data contained therein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but that there is no guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of such data. While Just believe that each of these publications, studies and surveys has been prepared by a reputable source, Just has not independently verified the data contained therein. In addition, certain of the industry, market and competitive position data contained in this document come from the internal research and estimates of Just based on the knowledge and experience of Just's management in the markets in which Just operates. While Just believe that such research and estimates are reasonable and reliable, they, and their underlying methodology and assumptions, have not been verified by any independent source for accuracy or completeness and are subject to change without notice. Accordingly, undue reliance should not be placed on any of the industry, market or competitive position data contained in this document. All projections, valuations and statistical analyses are provided to assist the recipient in the evaluation of the matters described herein. They may be based on subjective assessments and assumptions and may use one among alternative methodologies that produce different results and to the extent that they are based on historical information, they should not be relied upon as an accurate prediction of future performance. The document has not been independently verified and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of Just, or its directors, officers, advisers or any person acting on its behalf, as to, and no reliance should be placed for any purposes on, the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this document and no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection therewith is assumed by any such persons for any such information or opinions or for any errors or omissions. Just is not under any obligation to update or keep current information contained in this document, to correct any inaccuracies which may become apparent, or to publicly announce the result of any revision to the statements made herein except where they would be required to do so under applicable law, and any opinions expressed in them are subject to change without notice RBC annuities seminar 13
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