THE NEW OECD JOBS STRATEGY: HOW TO PREPARE FOR THE CHALLENGES THAT LIE AHEAD
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1 Oslo, 26 October 2017 THE NEW OECD JOBS STRATEGY: HOW TO PREPARE FOR THE CHALLENGES THAT LIE AHEAD Stijn Broecke Senior Economist Skills and Employability Division Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs OECD
2 The OECD Jobs Strategy: A bit of history The original Jobs Strategy of 1994 Focus: high and persistent unemployment Key message: Provide a growth-friendly environment, including through flexible product and labour markets The Reassessed Jobs Strategy of 2006 Focus: job quantity and to a more limited extent job quality Key message: There are several ways to Rome
3 '000 of units The 3 mega-trends Technology is changing the workplace Estimated worldwide annual supply of industrial robots Populations are ageing Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(15-64) OECD average The world has become more integrated 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Share of business sector jobs sustained by consumers in foreign markets 2050
4 Labour markets are changing Jobs are at risk of automation New forms of work are emerging Significant change High risk Labour markets are polarising Percentage point change in share of total employment (OECD average), 1995 to 2015 High skill Middle skill Low skill Inequality is rising Richest 10% v. poorest 10% 7x 9x 25 years ago Now
5 The new Jobs Strategy framework Objective Enhance inclusive growth and well-being Dimensions of labour market performance More & better jobs Labour market inclusiveness Resilience & adaptability Policies Labour market policies and institutions, and other structural & macroeconomic policies
6 Job quantity: How Norway compares
7 Job quality: How Norway compares
8 Inclusiveness: How Norway compares
9 Does policy need a paradigm shift? Skills. Lifelong learning: from rhetoric to reality.
10 Many workers do not have the right skills for the new jobs Problem-solving skills in Technology-Rich Environments Percentage of the working-age population (aged 15/16-64) 100 Failed ICT core or had no computer experience Lacks basic skills to fullfill simple tasks (Level 1 or below) Many workers lacking ICT skills 0 Few high-skilled workers 10
11 The least skilled benefit less from training Percentage of adults who participated in adult education and training during year prior to the survey, by level of literacy proficiency Below level 1 Level 4/5
12 Does policy need a paradigm shift? Skills. Lifelong learning: from rhetoric to reality. Regulation. Balancing flexibility with security.
13 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 The platform economy remains small (but may be growing fast) 3% 5% 0.5% 1% New and filled platform vacancies May 2016 to May day moving average, May 2016= Source: Kässi, O. & Lehdonvirta, V. (2016), Online Labor Index.
14 Non-standard employment is not new OECD Average 16,5 16,0 15,5 15,0 14,5 14,0 13,5 13,0 12,5 12,0 16,1 15,6 13,5 Self-employment Part-time employment Temporary employment (as % of total employment) (as % of total employment) (as a % all employees)
15 Does policy need a paradigm shift? Skills. Lifelong learning: from rhetoric to reality. Regulation. Balancing flexibility with security. Social protection. Repairing or replacing the safety net?
16 Many non-standard workers slip through the (social safety) net Statutory access to social protection for the self-employed Old age Invalidity Parental benefits Sickness benefits Accidents at work Unempl. benefits Finland Sweden Denmark Spain Norway Germany Netherlands France Italy Source: Spasova et al. (2017).
17 Many non-standard workers slip through the (social safety) net Statutory access is not the same as effective access 55% 38% 46% The share of self-employed (15-64) in the EU at risk of not being entitled to unemployment benefits The share of self-employed (15-64) in the EU at risk of not being entitled to sickness benefits The share of self-employed women (15-49) in the EU at risk of not being entitled to maternity benefits Source: EC (2016): Non-standard employment and access to social security benefits 17
18 Does policy need a paradigm shift? Skills. Lifelong learning: from rhetoric to reality. Regulation. Balancing flexibility with security. Social protection. Repairing or replacing the safety net? Social dialogue. Rebuilding or reinventing?
19 Trade union density has been declining steadily in most OECD countries 70 Trends in union density Percentage of employees, Norway European union Japan United States
20 Employer organisation varies considerably across countries Employer organisation density by country Percentage of employees in the private sector, 2000 or latest year available
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