Fixed Income Daily Notes

Transcription

1 Fixed Income Daily Notes Indonesia Government Bonds Yield Maturities (Year) 13-Mar (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month) Source: Bloomberg Yield (%) Maturities (Year) 13-Mar (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month) Global Market Update Yesterday, March , yield of US 10-years treasury note rose to 2.62% because investors waited Brexit certainty after UK parliament declined no-deal Brexit proposal. Yield of global bond benchmark also moved upward, reflected by 10-years UK Gilt and German Bunds, which rose to 1.20% and 0.06%, respectively. Yield 10-years US Treasury note kemarin, 13 Maret 2019, ditutup naik ke level 2,62% akibat dari investor menunggu keputusan penundaan Brexit setelah parlemen Inggris Raya menolak proposal no-deal Brexit. Seiring dengan hal tersebut, mayoritas yield obligasi benchmark global juga ditutup mengalami kenaikan, terefleksi dari yield 10-years UK Gilt dan German Bunds, yang naik hingga ke level 1,20% dan 0,06%. Domestic Market Update Today, Government bond prices on the secondary market are tend to weaken moderately as higher US yield. Meanwhile, Rupiah will be ranging from IDR 14,205 - IDR 14,267 and yield of 10-years benchmark bond (FR0078) will be ranging from 7.81% %. Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di pasar sekunder diproyeksikan cenderung melemah terbatas seiring dengan kenaikan yield obligasi global. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap Dollar AS diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp Rp , sedangkan yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0078) pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang 7,81% - 7,88%.

2 Most Active Government Bonds Last Price Last Yield Volume Volume Most Active Corporate Bonds Last Price Last Yield (IDR bn) (IDR bn) FR TUFI04ACN1 idaa FR ISAT03ACN1 idaaa FR ISAT02ACN3 idaaa FR BBRI02DCN2 idaaa FR BSSB02ACN1 ida FR SIBMTR01ACN1 ida+(sy) FR NISP02CCN1 idaaa FR ADMF02CCN3 idaaa FR BJBR01CCN1 idaa FR DILD02A ida Global Stock Marketss Last Price Chg (bps) % Chg % YTD Global Bonds 13-Mar Indonesia (JCI) % 2.96% 13-Mar (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Malaysia (KLCI) % -0.73% Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield Thailand (SET) % 4.85% Fed Fund Rate Singapore (STI) % 4.13% 2-Year Hang Seng % 11.46% 5-Year Nikkei % 6.37% 10-Year Shanghai % 21.37% 30-Year Dow Jones (DJIA) % 10.18% 10-Year Government Bond Yield London (FTSE 100) % 6.41% UK DAX % 9.60% Germany France FX Rate 13-Mar China Mar (-1 day) (-1 week) Japan USD/IDR 14,236 14,221 14,172 Korea GBP/USD Thailand USD/JPY Malaysia USD/SGD Singapore USD/THB Indonesia USD Bond Yield USD/MYR INDO INDO Macroeconomic Data INDO Feb-19 Jan-19 Dec-18 Consumer Price Index (MoM) Money Market 13-Mar Consumer Price Index (YoY) Mar (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Core Inflation (YoY) JIBOR BI 7-Day RR Rate (%) O/N Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn) M M Indonesia Sovereign CDS LIBOR As of 2-year 5-year 10-year 1M Mar M (-1 Day) M (-1 Week) Indonesia Interest Rates (-1 Month) Deposit 1M (-1 Year) Lending Benchmark 13-Mar (-1 day) Change Yield FR % FR % FR % FR % Government Bond Ownership As of March 12, 2019 (in Trillion) Holders Mar-19 8-Mar Mar Mar-19 Banks Bank Indonesia Mutual Fund Insurance Foreign Investor Pension Fund Individual Investors Others Total 1, , , , , , , , , Source: Bloomberg, IDX & DJPPR

3 Government Bonds Prices Closing Price Data : 13-Mar-2019 Series Maturity TTM Coupon Price YTM Price (-1) Price Spread (bps) FR Apr % % FR Sep % % FR Nov % % FR Jun % % FR Jul % % FR May % % FR Jun % % FR Jul % % FR May % % FR Jul % % FR Aug % % FR Mar % % FR May % % FR Sep % % FR Sep % % FR Sep % % FR Sep % % FR May % % FR Jul % % FR Feb % % FR May % % FR Mar % % FR May % % FR Aug % % FR May % % FR Jul % % FR Jun % % FR Aug % % FR May % % FR Mar % % FR May % % FR May % % FR May % % FR Jul % % FR Apr % % FR May % % FR Apr % % FR Jul % % FR May % % Source: Bloomberg, IBPA & MCS Estimates

4 Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (March ( Maret ) March ) INDONESIA Date Indicator Series Data Actual Previous Projection 15 Balance of Trade Feb-19 - USD billion USD billion 15 Exports Growth (YoY) Feb % 15 Imports Growth (YoY) Feb % GLOBAL Date Indicator Country Series Data Actual Previous Projection 11 Balance of Trade Germany Jan-19 EUR 14.5 billion EUR 14.3 billion EUR 14.4 billion 11 Retail Sales (MoM) US Jan % -1.6% 0.1% 12 Balance of Trade United Kingdom Jan-19 GBP billion GBP billion GBP billion 12 Inflation Rate (YoY) US Feb % 1.6% 1.6% 13 Durable Goods Orders (MoM) US Jan % 1.3% -0.8% 13 Crude Oil Inventory US million barrel 7.07 million barrel - Mar Inflation Rate Final (YoY) Germany Feb % 1.6% 14 Initial Jobless Claims US Mar thousand - 14 Continuing Jobless Claims US Mar thousand - 15 BoJ Interest Rate Japan % -0.1% Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018)

5 PT. MEGA CAPITAL SEKURITAS Head Office Menara Bank Mega Lt. 2 Jl. Kapten P. Tendean Kav 12-14A Jakarta Dealing Room Phone No : Fax No : Eva Sarah Hutabarat eva@megasekuritas.id Head of Debt Capital Market Cicih Sukaesih cicih@megasekuritas.id Debt Sales Ajeng Palupi P. palupi@megasekuritas.id Debt Sales Ratna Nurhasanah ratna.nurhasanah@megasekuritas.id Debt Sales Qolbie Ardie qolbie@megasekuritas.id Economist & Fixed Income Analyst Nada Lathifah Utari nada@megasekuritas.id Administrative Assistant DISCLAIMER This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and strictly a personal view and should not be used as a sole judgment for investment. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Mega Capital Sekuritas.