Trade Deficit Hits New High, Trump Tariffs Are Bad
|
|
- Angelina Glenn
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Trade Deficit Hits New High, Trump Tariffs Are Bad March 13, 2019 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. US Trade Deficit Hit Record $891 Billion in Trump s Trade Tariffs Are a Tax on US Consumers 3. US-China Trade Negotiations Hit a Bump Last Week 4. Another Reason to Consider Our Alpha Advantage Strategy Overview The US trade deficit soared to a new record high in 2018 according to the latest Commerce Department report out last week. President Trump has promised that his trade tariffs on China and other trading partners would reduce the trade deficit. They have only made it worse. Today, I ll offer more evidence that trade tariffs are not paid by our trading partners, but instead result in higher prices for US consumers. This is not good for the US economy and the stock markets. Stocks have turned decidedly lower in recent days as talks of a new trade deal with China deteriorated. US Trade Deficit Hit Record $891 Billion in 2018 The trade deficit/surplus is the difference between how much we import versus how much we export. The US, as the largest economy in the world, has imported more than we export for years. That s absolutely normal for the richest nation on the planet, but the mainstream media always paints trade deficits as a bad thing. Here are the latest numbers. The Commerce Department reported last week that the US trade deficit in goods swelled to a new alltime high of $891.3 billion in 2018, defying President Trump s efforts to narrow the gap. Imports jumped due to the strong economy, and some exports including soybeans and other farm products got hammered by retaliation against US trade policies. The trade picture looked somewhat less dire when services including tourism, higher education, Page 1, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
2 banking and others are counted, though this deficit still deteriorated markedly. With services included, the overall trade gap grew 12% last year to $621 billion, the widest since US trade deficits with China and Mexico, already the nation s largest, also reached new records last year. Total US goods exports to China fell 7% last year to $120.3 billion, but American imports of Chinese merchandise rose by that same percentage, to $539.5 billion. Separate data from China s customs administration provide part of the explanation. Chinese purchases of US soybeans one of America s top exports, which were targeted by China s retaliatory tariffs fell by nearly half last year to $7.1 billion from $13.9 billion in The US loss was Brazil s gain, as that country s soybean exports jumped by $8 billion. There were also notable declines in US shipments to China of frozen fish, American-made cars, and other products hit by higher tariffs. In Trump s first two years in office, the overall deficit in traded goods and services has surged by nearly 25%. The increase was driven by some factors outside Mr. Trump s control, like the global economic slowdown and the stronger US dollar, both of which weakened overseas demand for American goods. Also, the strong US economy meant Americans had more money to spend on imports. The president s trade war with Beijing also widened the gap. Stiff tariffs on Chinese goods helped slow China s economy, further crimping American exports, which declined nearly 50% in December from the same month a year before. While President Trump sees the trade deficit as a sort of economic scorecard for which country is on top, most economists disagree with this perspective. Most view trade deficits not as a sign of economic strength or weakness, but as a function of macroeconomic factors like investment flows, fluctuations in the value of currency and relative growth rates. I agree. Trump s Trade Tariffs Are a Tax on US Consumers President Trump implemented various trade tariffs throughout In January, he imposed tariffs on imports of solar panels and washing machines. Soon thereafter, he imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, although some major trading partners were exempted from these trade sanctions. Page 2, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
3 In July, Trump ordered additional targeted tariffs on more than 800 categories of imports from China, which were estimated to cost China at least $200 billion in lost revenues. Those tariffs on China were expected to more than double in 2019, but President Trump has delayed them temporarily as the trade talks are still proceeding. This is a serious trade war if it continues. The threat of an increasing trade war with China was one of the main factors that spooked stock prices significantly lower in December, and again this month. It remains to be seen what will come out of the current trade talks with China. If there is no deal, I would expect more pressure on stocks. As I most recently warned on November 29 and often in the past, trade wars with foreign countries only result in higher prices paid by Americans on the goods we buy which come from other countries and on products we make here that contain imported parts subject to the tariffs. Take China, for example. In January of last year Trump levied a 25% tariff on Chinese washing machines. In effect, that meant that companies like Samsung and LG had to raise their washer prices significantly. Now you might think US consumers would simply buy other washing machines that are not subject to the tax. There are certainly other brands out there. But here s the dirty little secret. When Samsung, LG and the like raise their prices significantly, that gives domestic manufacturers the opportunity to raise their prices as well, just not as much as Chinese brands. Tariffs are a double-whammy on consumers as we can see below. That s an increase of 11.54% in the last year (and this chart only goes through December). They have continued to rise since then. I know first-hand because I had to buy a new washer/dryer recently, and prices are much higher now than the last ones I bought some years ago. Major appliances are but one example. Prices for goods subject to the tariffs are going up across-theboard based on what I read. President Trump may say, and believe, that billions of dollars will soon be Page 3, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
4 pouring into our Treasury from taxes that China is paying for us, but China isn t paying the taxes. US consumers are! The president has also said repeatedly that the tariffs will cure our trade deficit. That s clearly wrong! As we just read above, the trade deficit on goods was the largest ever in In a new study, The Impact of the 2018 Trade War on U.S. Prices and Welfare, economists Mary Amiti of the Fed, Stephen Redding of Princeton and David Weinstein of Columbia document what economists have told us for decades: that tariffs are a tax on the consumer. The study found that the waves of tariffs throughout 2018 resulted in substantial increases in the prices of intermediate and final goods, the cost of which was born entirely by US consumers. And the authors of the study confirmed that the higher price of imports enabled US producers to raise their prices, as I discussed above. The scary part is that President Trump apparently doesn t believe this. He s surrounded himself with some very smart people, although most of them have protectionist leanings, but they can t seem to convince Trump that tariffs don t reduce the trade deficit and definitely hurt US consumers. Larry Kudlow, Director of Trump s National Economic Council, certainly knows this. I ve heard and seen him say so on numerous occasions. Yet it remains to be seen if the president will change his position. US-China Trade Negotiations Hit a Bump Last Week We ve been repeatedly told this year that the ongoing talks between US and China trade representatives were going well, and that a new accord was expected relatively soon, perhaps as early as the end of this month. President Trump has even invited China s President Xi Jinping to a summit at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, presumably to hammer out any final details and hopefully sign the new trade deal. The prospect of a new trade deal with China bolstered the stock markets earlier this year. But Chinese leaders were taken aback by President Trump s latest failed meeting in Vietnam with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Mr. Trump s decision to break off those talks and walk away sparked serious concerns with China s President Xi Jinping, who has backed-off the Mar-a-Lago summit, at least until more progress is made. Keep in mind that President Trump had promised to more than double the trade tariffs on China to 50% if a trade deal was not reached by March 1, but delayed the increase because the trade talks were supposedly going so well. Now we don t know what he will do. The stock markets reacted accordingly. The Dow Jones Index was down 8 of the last 9 trading days, as of the end of last week. Page 4, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
5 Another Reason to Consider Our Alpha Advantage Strategy This chart looks quite bearish. The rally stopped well short of the record high above 26,000 late last year, and below the two more recent rallies in November and December. Let s hope there is promising news of a trade deal with China very soon, or the 10-year bull market in stocks could be in real danger of coming to an end especially if Trump doubles the tariffs on China. This argues once again for having some strategies in your portfolio that can go to cash, or even short stocks if we get into a bear market. I continue to emphasize that you consider our Alpha Advantage Strategy, which can be long, short or in cash, and has an outstanding track record, as you can see at the link above. (As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.) Best regards, Gary D. Halbert Forecasts & Trends E-Letter is published by Halbert Wealth Management, Inc. Gary D. Halbert is the president and CEO of Halbert Wealth Management, Inc. and is the editor of this publication. Information contained herein is taken from sources believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed as to its accuracy. Opinions and recommendations herein generally reflect the judgement of Gary D. Halbert (or another named author) and may change at any time without written notice. Market opinions contained herein are intended as general observations and are not intended as specific investment advice. Readers are urged to check with their investment counselors before making any investment decisions. This electronic newsletter does not constitute an offer of sale of any securities. Gary D. Halbert, Halbert Wealth Management, Inc., and its affiliated companies, its officers, directors and/or employees may or may not have investments in markets or programs mentioned herein. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Reprinting for family or friends is allowed with proper credit. However, republishing (written or electronically) in its entirety or through the use of extensive quotes is prohibited without prior written consent. Halbert Wealth Management Page 5, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
Surprising Jobs Report Suggests Economy Remains Strong
Surprising Jobs Report Suggests Economy Remains Strong January 9, 2019 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Surprising 312,000 New Jobs Created in December 2. Stocks Soar on Fed
More informationThe Worst Week In A Decade For US Stocks
The Worst Week In A Decade For US Stocks February 15, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. The Worst Week For US Stock Markets Since 2008 2. Confluence of Negative Factors Became Important
More informationU.S. Debt Tops $20 Trillion - Stocks Soar To Record Highs
U.S. Debt Tops $20 Trillion - Stocks Soar To Record Highs September 20, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. National Debt Tops $20 Trillion, Equal to 107% of GDP 2. Debt Held by the Public
More informationWhy Trade Deficits Are Not Necessarily a Bad Thing
Why Trade Deficits Are Not Necessarily a Bad Thing May 23, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Why Trade Deficits Are Not Always a Bad Thing 2. Trade Deficits Are Common Among Developed
More informationOdds Rise For "Inverted Yield Curve" & New Recession
Odds Rise For "Inverted Yield Curve" & New Recession June 14, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Policy Committee Set to Hike Fed Funds Rate Tomorrow 2. Yield Curve Flattening Could It
More informationEconomy Ends 2016 Strongly, Liberals Gaining On Conservatives
Economy Ends 2016 Strongly, Liberals Gaining On Conservatives January 11, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. US Consumer Spending Hit Nine-Year High in December 2. US Economic Confidence
More informationUS "Debt Held by the Public" vs. Total National Debt
US "Debt Held by the Public" vs. Total National Debt November 13, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Overview US Debt at Record High $21.7 Trillion 2. Debt Held by the
More informationRecord Household Debt, Student Loan Delinquencies Spike
IN THIS ISSUE: Record Household Debt, Student Loan Delinquencies Spike November 28, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Household Debt Hit a New Record High in the 3Q 2. Student Loan Delinquencies
More informationUS National Debt Spiraling Out of Control, New Record
US National Debt Spiraling Out of Control, New Record May 9, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Treasury Borrowing Hit Record $488 Billion in 1Q 2. Why Deficits Could be Worse Than the
More informationEconomists Expect Big Jump In 2Q GDP - We'll See May 16, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management
Economists Expect Big Jump In 2Q GDP - We'll See May 16, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management Page 1, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved. IN THIS ISSUE: 1. First Trust Predicts
More informationFederal Spending to Top a Record $4 Trillion in FY2017
Federal Spending to Top a Record $4 Trillion in FY2017 July 11, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. June Unemployment Report Was Better Than Expected 2. Federal Spending to Blow Through
More informationStock Markets Turn Much More Volatile & Weak
Stock Markets Turn Much More Volatile & Weak November 21, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Stock Markets Shift Into A More Volatile Gear 2. Most Cited Reasons For the Current Market
More informationEconomy Is Weaker Than It Seems & Scary Facts On National Debt
Economy Is Weaker Than It Seems & Scary Facts On National Debt November 9, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. US Unemployment Rate Dropped to 4.9% in October 2. Why the US Economy is
More informationThe Economy: Growth Has Been Weak But Long-Lasting
The Economy: Growth Has Been Weak But Long-Lasting October 19, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Why This Economic Recovery Has Been So Disappointing 2. The Fourth Longest Economic Expansion
More informationU.S. Moves Back To #1 In Global Competitiveness Ranking
U.S. Moves Back To #1 In Global Competitiveness Ranking June 6, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. First Quarter GDP Growth Slowed to 2.2% Annual Rate 2. Can the US Economy Really Grow
More informationSavings Rate Lowest In A Decade, Credit Card Balances Soar
Savings Rate Lowest In A Decade, Credit Card Balances Soar January 24, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. US National Savings Rate Falls to 2.9%, Decade Low 2. Median Savings Rates by
More informationThe Coming Home Equity Line of Credit Crisis
The Coming Home Equity Line of Credit Crisis March 2, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Will HELOCs Trigger the Next Financial Crisis? 2. Millions of HELOCs to Reset in
More informationConsumer Confidence Highest Since Before Great Recession
Consumer Confidence Highest Since Before Great Recession December 14, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Consumer Confidence Soars to Highest Since 2008 2. My Theory on Why Consumer Confidence
More informationThe National Debt Tops $19 Trillion - 106% Of GDP
The National Debt Tops $19 Trillion - 106% Of GDP March 10, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Another Strong Jobs Report, But Not All Good News 2. US National Debt Topped
More informationWhy We Don't Want A Trade War With China
Why We Don't Want A Trade War With China July 18, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Trade War With China Benefits No One 2. Why the US-China Trade Deficit Will Likely Fix Itself 3. China
More information44% of US Households Don't Pay Any Federal Income Tax
44% of US Households Don't Pay Any Federal Income Tax April 25, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. 44% of Households Don t Pay Any Federal Income Tax 2. Lion s Share of Federal Income
More informationGDP Stunner: 2Q Growth Was Less Than Half of Forecast August 3, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management
GDP Stunner: 2Q Growth Was Less Than Half of Forecast August 3, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management Page 1, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved. 1. GDP Grew a Disappointing
More informationAverage Household Debt: $132,000 - Not Counting Mortgage
Average Household Debt: $132,000 - Not Counting Mortgage August 31, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Fed Chair Janet Yellen Ready to Raise Interest Rates... Maybe 2. Yellen s #2 Man
More informationTariffs 101. CONTENTS What are tariffs? The history of American tariffs. Tariffs in the modern age. What the new tariffs aim to achieve
Are you sitting down? Starting on January 1, 2019, your inventory costs could increase 25 percent because of tariffs. The whole tariff situation has escalated rapidly in less than a year and shows no signs
More informationThe US Economy Disappointed In The Fourth Quarter
The US Economy Disappointed In The Fourth Quarter January 31, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Advance GDP Report Missed Expectations at Only 2.6% 2. US Economic Strength Lifts Other
More informationIs China Dumping U.S. Dollars? Answer: Yes And No
Is China Dumping U.S. Dollars? Answer: Yes And No January 25, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. China Continues to Sell US Treasuries at a Record Pace 2. Significant Decline in China
More informationSub-3% GDP Growth: A Lost Decade For The US Economy
Sub-3% GDP Growth: A Lost Decade For The US Economy February 3, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. 4Q GDP Up Only 0.7% Economy Started and Ended Weak 2. A Controversy Over
More informationNational Debt No Problem - We Owe It To Ourselves - WRONG!
National Debt No Problem - We Owe It To Ourselves - WRONG! June 20, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Over 40 Years of Writing This Newsletter 2. National Debt Not a Problem We Owe It
More informationExploding Healthcare Costs Are Out Of Control
Exploding Healthcare Costs Are Out Of Control February 10, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Unemployment Rate Fell to 4.9% But New Jobs Disappointed 2. Obamacare s Exploding
More informationFed Plans To Trim Its Massive $4.5 Trillion Balance Sheet
Fed Plans To Trim Its Massive $4.5 Trillion Balance Sheet June 21, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Fed to Reduce Massive $4.5 Trillion Balance Sheet Implications 2. How the Fed Got
More informationMore & More Americans Having to Work Past Age 70
More & More Americans Having to Work Past Age 70 July 18, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Almost One-Fifth of Americans Are Working Past Age 70 2. Seniors, There s No Guarantee of
More informationThe Global Recession of 2016
INTERVIEW BARRON S The Global Recession of 2016 Forecaster David Levy sees a spreading global recession intensifying and ultimately engulfing the world s economies By LAWRENCE C. STRAUSS December 19, 2015
More informationChina Not To Overtake US Economy Until 2032
China Not To Overtake US Economy Until 2032 January 3, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Weal Management 1. Report: China s Economy Will Not Overtake US Until 2032 2. Cheaper Energy & Technology to Boost
More informationU.S. Debt To Hit $20 Trillion, Poverty Remains Rampant
U.S. Debt To Hit $20 Trillion, Poverty Remains Rampant November 11, 2015 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE 1. October Unemployment Rate Plunges to 7-Year Low 2. $20 Trillion Man:
More informationFIRST LOOK AT MACROECONOMICS*
Chapter 4 A FIRST LOOK AT MACROECONOMICS* Key Concepts Origins and Issues of Macroeconomics Modern macroeconomics began during the Great Depression, 1929 1939. The Great Depression was a decade of high
More informationCan Trump's Economic Plan Jump-Start GDP Growth?
Can Trump's Economic Plan Jump-Start GDP Growth? March 1, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. President Trump s Economic Plan Promises 3-4% GDP Growth 2. Manufacturing Has the Best Job-Multiplier
More informationHOPE FOR ROTATION. So, let me talk a little about each of these. Tariffs. Tariffs are restrictions to trade; they are a tax and they cause inflation.
HOPE FOR ROTATION We ve said repeatedly that we believe the current bull market will continue until there is either a recession or a restrictive monetary policy. So far, that position has been accurate
More informationChina Focus: Our 21 Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators
China Focus: Our 21 Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators Trade War The media noise is a traders best friend, it is consistently far too negative and has created a number of mispriced trades over the past 24
More informationGlobal Economic Slowdown - Implications For US Stocks
Global Economic Slowdown - Implications For US Stocks August 12, 2015 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Another Ho-Hum Unemployment Report For July 2. The Global Economy is
More informationTrade war breaks out, but will it really hurt India?
Trade war breaks out, but will it really hurt India? Recent Trade war has made it clear that Mrs. Donald Trump, who is elected president of USA is unhappy with the US trade deficit (Total Export minus
More informationImagine A World Without Cash - A "Cashless Society"
Imagine A World Without Cash - A "Cashless Society" August 1, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. VISA Offers Select Retailers $10,000 to Stop Taking Cash 2. More Details on the War On
More informationWhy The US Unemployment Rate May Be Wrong
Why The US Unemployment Rate May Be Wrong April 8, 2015 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Atlanta Fed Predicts Zero Growth in the 1Q 2. March Unemployment Report Was a Stunner
More informationSoybeans face long road End to tariffs wouldn t help 2018 exports much By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst
Soybeans face long road End to tariffs wouldn t help 2018 exports much By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst Forecasting grain prices is relatively easy in normal times. Most models assume the future
More informationHousehold Debt Hits New Record High, Stocks Stumble
Household Debt Hits New Record High, Stocks Stumble May 26, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Household Debt Soars to Record $12.7 Trillion in 1Q 2. Delinquency Rates Were Flat in the
More informationSTRONG WEEK AHEAD OF BIG WEEKEND
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY December 3 2018 STRONG WEEK AHEAD OF BIG WEEKEND John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial KEY
More informationQuarterly Market Review: January - March 2018 The Markets (as of market close March 29, 2018)
Quarterly Market Review: January - March 2018 The Markets (as of market close March 29, 2018) The first quarter of 2018 began as the fourth quarter of 2017 ended: with strong market gains. The Nasdaq led
More informationCORPORATE BEIGE BOOK:
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY August 29 2016 CORPORATE BEIGE BOOK: OFFERS FEW SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist,
More informationOur Scary Return To Trillion-Dollar Budget Deficits
Our Scary Return To Trillion-Dollar Budget Deficits February 21, 2018 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Budget Deal: Republicans Abandon Fiscal Conservatism 2. President Trump Proposes Record
More informationHuffPost: North Korea June 12-14, US Adults
1. Group Randomization Survey Experiment Group Randomization Kim Jong Un personality - control 49% 45% 52% 47% 51% 47% 50% 48% 58% 43% 46% Kim Jong Un personality - Trump 51% 55% 48% 53% 49% 53% 50% 52%
More informationChina-US Trade Disputes (I)
China-US Trade Disputes (I) Fung Business Intelligence 14 March 2018 An update on China-US trade disputes 1. Recent US moves have worsened China-US trade relations In November last year, the US officially
More information2017. Phoenix Capital Research, Phoenix Capital Management Inc. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and
2017. Phoenix Capital Research, Phoenix Capital Management Inc. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be used pursuant
More informationStocks Laboring to Move Higher
Stocks Laboring to Move Higher August 31, 2018 by Liz Ann Sonders, Jeffrey Kleintop & Brad Sorensen of Charles Schwab Key Points U.S. stocks indexes finally moved to new record highs but not exactly in
More informationUS Worker Productivity In Serious Decline -- The Reasons Why
US Worker Productivity In Serious Decline -- The Reasons Why August 23, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. US Worker Productivity Falls Again, Worst Showing Since 1979 2. How Productivity
More informationJune 2018 Monthly Commodity Market Overview Newsletter. Stock Index Futures. By the ADMIS Research Team
June 2018 Monthly Commodity Market Overview Newsletter By the ADMIS Research Team Stock Index Futures Stock index futures performed well in spite of increased global trade tensions. In fact NASDAQ and
More informationGLOBAL LOGISTICS & THE US TRADE DEFICIT
GLOBAL LOGISTICS & THE US TRADE DEFICIT HAULAGE AIR OCEAN WAREHOUSING PROJECTS CONTENTS Executive Summary 3 What is the Trade Deficit? 4 UK and US Trade Relations 5 What Next for UK and US International
More informationTake risks: If you win you will be happy; if you lose, you will be wise (Unknown)
David J. Klein Senior Vice President Financial Advisor The Auctus Group RBC Wealth Management Phone: 847-215-5326 Fax: 847-215-5315 Toll Free: 800-879-3246 e-mail: david.klein@rbc.com website: www.davidjklein.com
More informationFive takeaways from April and five things to watch in May
FOR TRADE PRESS USE AND PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY Amsterdam, 2 May 2018 Five takeaways from April and five things to watch in May by Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist, Invesco Ltd April brought
More informationCHINA S DIRECTION IN What is the Risk of a Debt Crisis?
Sinology by Andy Rothman January 18, 2018 a In 2018, I expect China s economy to return to the long-term trend of gradual deceleration, while remaining one of the world s fastestgrowing economies. a China
More informationOn The Economy, Wages, Interest Rates & The Yield Curve
On The Economy, Wages, Interest Rates & The Yield Curve May 1, 2018 by Gary D. Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management Overview We touch on several bases today, starting with last Friday s initial estimate
More information23 March U.S. plans to impose tariffs on Chinese imports, raising trade war fear
U.S. plans to impose tariffs on Chinese imports, raising trade war fear 23 March 2018 Event On March 22, 2018, President Trump signed the presidential memorandum that instructed the U.S. Trade Representative
More informationPubPol 201. Module 3: International Trade Policy. Class 6 Outline. Class 6 Outline. NAFTA What is it? NAFTA What is it? NAFTA What is it?
PubPol 21 Module 3: International Trade Policy Class 6 and Its Renegotiation as Class 6 Outline and Its Renegotiation as What is? What happened under? Issues in renegotiation Lecture 6: & 2 Class 6 Outline
More informationISA RESEARCH BRIEFING
ISA RESEARCH BRIEFING The Leading Growth Markets for Exporters July 31, 2018 Without a doubt, these are worrying days for exporters. Whether it is a business that is counting on export markets for much
More informationTHE NEW ECONOMY RECESSION: ECONOMIC SCORECARD 2001
THE NEW ECONOMY RECESSION: ECONOMIC SCORECARD 2001 By Dean Baker December 20, 2001 Now that it is officially acknowledged that a recession has begun, most economists are predicting that it will soon be
More informationARMCHAIR INVESTOR (sm) MORNING MARKET NEWSLETTER A TREND-FOLLOWING STRATEGY CURRENT MARKET DIRECTION:
12/03/2018 Don t let the NEW run up without you! Are you letting the NEW run up without you? Monday Volume 17 #232 ARMCHAIR INVESTOR (sm) MORNING MARKET NEWSLETTER A TREND-FOLLOWING STRATEGY To open the
More informationSENIOR SCHOLARS AUDIO WRAPPER 1.5
SENIOR SCHOLARS AUDIO WRAPPER 1.5 to start the sound recording Press enter or use arrow keys to continue with the presentation. CHINA & U.S: TWO COMPETING MODELS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Basic
More informationInterest Rates Continue to Climb
SEPTEMBER 3, RETAIL RATE FORECASTS Interest Rates Continue to Climb # BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff North American economic growth rebounded in the spring. ff The Bank of Canada and the
More informationTHE 1987 CRASH: A NOT SO HAPPY ANNIVERSARY
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS Though charts comparing 1987 to 2017 look similar, gains leading up to 1987 were much stronger. We believe that the stock market is standing on a much
More informationHas the China Collapse Finally Arrived?
Has the China Collapse Finally Arrived? January 24, 2019 by Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia China has been on the verge of a hard landing for many years, according to some analysts. Will they finally be
More informationChina Warms to a More Flexible Yuan
Page 1 of 5 This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers visit http://www.djreprints.com. http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-warms-to-a-more-flexible-yuan-1418811977
More informationINVESTMENT UPDATE. August 2018 PERFORMANCE UPDATE
1 INVESTMENT UPDATE August 2018 PERFORMANCE UPDATE ASSET CLASS REVIEW HIGH RISK EQUALS HIGH RETURNS? WHAT RISK ARE YOU TAKING WITH YOUR MONEY? FINAL COMMENT PERFORMANCE UPDATE The portfolios performed
More informationMONTHLY NEWSLETTER SEPTEMBER 2017
MONTHLY NEWSLETTER SEPTEMBER 2017 We should all be reminded there will always be global influences on the US Stock Market and the recent tensions with North Korea are no exception. Another example is China.
More informationAthena Wealth Management. May 2017 Investment Research Report
Athena Wealth Management May 2017 Investment Research Report Summary Generally, market optimism still prevailed in May. MSCI emerging market index recorded a growth of 2.80%, performing better than MSCI
More informationIf you are over age 50, you get another $5,500 in catch-up contributions. Are you taking advantage of that additional amount?
Let s start this off with the obvious. I am not a certified financial planner. I am not a certified investment counselor. Anything I know about investing, I ve learned by making mistakes, not by taking
More informationTestimony. of Linda Dempsey Vice President, International Economic Affairs National Association of Manufacturers
Testimony of Linda Dempsey Vice President, International Economic Affairs National Association of Manufacturers before the Subcommittee on Livestock and Foreign Agriculture of the Committee on Agriculture
More informationU.S. Economic Outlook: recent developments
U.S. Economic Outlook Recent developments Washington, D.C., 6 February 2018 This document was prepared by Helvia Velloso, Economic Affairs Officer, under the supervision of Inés Bustillo, Director, ECLAC
More informationThe Big Picture Hasn t Changed: Don t Get Sucked Back Into the Stock Market
The Big Picture Hasn t Changed: Don t Get Sucked Back Into the Stock Market July 22, 2016 by Justin Spittler of Casey Research Stocks are on a tear right now Today, the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high.
More informationMARKET OUTLOOK FOR UNITED STATES & SOUTH AMERICA
MARKET OUTLOOK FOR UNITED STATES & SOUTH AMERICA Grain Market Outlook for the United States and South America By Steve Freed, Vice President of Grain Research, ADM Investor Services The following report
More informationBCA 4Q 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Russ Allen, CIO. Summary Outlook
BCA 4Q 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Russ Allen, CIO Summary Outlook January 15, 2019 Markets in 2019 will be choppy with volatility more like this past year than the placid trading of 2017. The Fed is
More informationCanada Jobs Sparkle, Trade Deficits Widen, Houses and Ships Signal Slowdown, Dollar Gains, Gold Corrects
Technical Scoop E-Commentary March 11 2019 From David Chapman, Chief Strategist dchapman@enrichedinvesting.com For Technical Scoop enquiries: 416-523-5454 For Enriched Investing TM strategy enquiries and
More informationMasaaki Shirakawa: The transition from high growth to stable growth Japan s experience and implications for emerging economies
Masaaki Shirakawa: The transition from high growth to stable growth Japan s experience and implications for emerging economies Remarks by Mr Masaaki Shirakwa, Governor of the Bank of Japan, at the Bank
More informationMarket volatility and trade tensions set the tone April 2018
Canada Outlook Market volatility and trade tensions set the tone April 2018 HSBC Private Wealth This document contains the views of HSBC Global Asset Management and is distributed by HSBC Investment Funds
More informationMarch Market Analysis
Views of Gordon Higgins CPA CA, MBA, CFA This and prior newsletters are available at www.higginsinvestment.com The Markets March Change in Month Year To- Date S&P TSX 15367-0.5% 5.1% S&P 500 2641 2.7%
More informationPerspectives JAN Market Preview: U.S. Economy
Perspectives JAN 2019 2019 Market Preview: U.S. Economy THE VIEW FROM THE TOP? 2018 saw another positive year of economic growth, and for some the Great Recession is slowly becoming a distant memory. The
More informationCOMPTROLLER LEMBO REPORTS EARLY INDICATIONS THAT STATE COULD END FISCAL YEAR 2019 IN SURPLUS
COMPTROLLER LEMBO REPORTS EARLY INDICATIONS THAT STATE COULD END FISCAL YEAR 2019 IN SURPLUS Comptroller Kevin Lembo today said that there are reasons for cautious optimism that the state could end Fiscal
More informationCAUGHT IN THE CROSSFIRE
International business U.S.-China trade war CAUGHT IN THE CROSSFIRE The trade war between the United States and Mainland China is escalating quickly. Nicky Burridge finds out how tensions between the world
More informationA HUUUGE DISRUPTION! United States and China Trade Tariff Review Curtis D. Spencer President, IMS Worldwide Inc.
A HUUUGE DISRUPTION! United States and China Trade Tariff Review Curtis D. Spencer President, IMS Worldwide Inc. Trump s China Strategy Be the Bully - hit hard then back off. Trump Threatens New Tariffs
More information- Stocks and credit sensitive bonds sold off in the fourth quarter of 2018 capping off the worst December since 1931.
Fourth Quarter 2018 Market Newsletter Summary. - Stocks and credit sensitive bonds sold off in the fourth quarter of 2018 capping off the worst December since 1931. - The US economy is moderating but is
More informationBUSINESS NEWS 1/3 fitpros irfm turupn
BUSINESS NEWS 1/3 Who is Carlos Ghosn and why is he in the news? Before listening, suggest words for the gaps in the first part of the news. The first letter is given to you. Then listen and check your
More informationFISCAL POLICY* Chapt er. Key Concepts
Chapt er 13 FISCAL POLICY* Key Concepts The Federal Budget The federal budget is an annual statement of the government s outlays and receipts. Using the federal budget to achieve macroeconomic objectives
More informationJeremy Siegel s 2016 Forecast for Stocks
Jeremy Siegel s 2016 Forecast for Stocks December 7, 2015 by Robert Huebscher Jeremy Siegel is the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and a senior
More informationVanguard 2017 economic and market outlook: What s ahead for 2017?
Vanguard 2017 economic and market outlook: What s ahead for 2017? David Eldreth: When talking about the investment and market outlook for 2017, the question on many investors minds is around uncertainty
More informationMarket Month: August 2018 The Markets (as of market close July 31, 2018)
Market Month: August 2018 The Markets (as of market close July 31, 2018) Favorable economic indicators and encouraging corporate earnings reports helped propel stocks forward in July. Market growth has
More informationQuarterly Market Review: April - June 2018 The Markets (as of market close June 30, 2018)
Quarterly Market Review: April - June 2018 The Markets (as of market close June 30, 2018) The second quarter of the year can be called a lot of things, but boring isn't one of them. The potential for a
More informationSolutions to PSet 5. October 6, More on the AS/AD Model
Solutions to PSet 5 October 6, 207 More on the AS/AD Model. If there is a zero interest rate lower bound, is fiscal policy more or less effective than otherwise? Explain using the AS/AD model. Is the United
More informationMACRO INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
MACRO INVESTMENT OUTLOOK AUGUST 18 INVESTMENT STRATEGY AND DYNAMIC MARKETS TEAM, MULTI ASSET GROUP GLOBAL SHARES CONSTRAINED BY TRADE WAR FEARS BUT AUSTRALIAN SHARES RELATIVELY RESILIENT 5 Australia -
More informationOverview: The Trump Trade Policy Promises, Pitfalls, and Future Prospects?
Overview: The Trump Trade Policy Promises, Pitfalls, and Future Prospects? Warren H. Maruyama November 2, 2017 President Trump s Campaign Promises Trade Our Trade Deals Have Been a Disaster We Have to
More informationAnother Strong Jobs Report, But Economy Remains Weak
Another Strong Jobs Report, But Economy Remains Weak August 9, 2016 by Gary D. Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management IN THIS ISSUE: 1. July Jobs Report Stronger Than Expected, 2 Month in a Row 2. The Real
More informationGlobal Financial Crises and the U.S. Economy: A Monetary Policymaker's Perspective
U.C. San Diego The Dean's Roundtable on International Affairs UCSD Faculty Club San Diego, California For delivery Wednesday, April 7, 1999, at approximately 8:40 a.m. PDT (10:40 a.m. EDT) by Robert T.
More informationPubPol 201. Module 1: International Trade Policy. Class 3 Outline. Definitions. Class 3 Outline. Definitions. Definitions. Class 3
PubPol 201 Module 1: International Trade Policy Class 3 Trade Deficits; 2 3 Definitions Balance of trade = Exports minus Imports Surplus if positive Deficit if negative Reported in 2 forms Balance of trade
More informationInvesting, Like Golf, Can Be Counterintuitive
July 2013 Investing, Like Golf, Can Be Counterintuitive There s an old saying in golf which says, swing easy and accept the extra yardage. Similarly, if you want to avoid a water hazard on one side of
More information